Tag Archives: Almost

We Need a Good Word for "Moderately Unlikely"

Mother Jones

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Here’s some genuinely useful information: what people think you’re saying when you tell them how likely something is. Here’s the approximate ranking:

90% — Almost certainly, highly likely
80% — Very good chance
70% — Probably, probable, likely, we believe
60% — Better than even
50% — About even
40% — ??
30% — ??
25% — Probably not, we doubt
20% — Unlikely, improbable, little chance
10% — Chances are slight
0% — Highly unlikely, almost no chance

There are no real surprises here except for one: apparently we don’t have a common word to express moderate doubt. The entire space between 25 percent and 50 percent is empty. Why do you suppose that is?1

1The most obvious answer is that the researchers just didn’t happen to include the right phrases in their study, but that’s boring. I would like to see some more creative suggestions.

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We Need a Good Word for "Moderately Unlikely"

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Living At Home Has Become Steadily More Popular Since the 1960s

Mother Jones

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According to the Wall Street Journal, millennials are living in their parents’ basements at record rates:

Almost 40% of young Americans were living with their parents, siblings or other relatives in 2015, the largest percentage since 1940, according to an analysis of census data by real estate tracker Trulia.

Despite a rebounding economy and recent job growth, the share of those between the ages of 18 and 34 doubling up with parents or other family members has been rising since 2005. Back then, before the start of the last recession, roughly one out of three were living with family.

Hmmm. “Rising since 2005.” I’ll assume that’s technically true, but take a look at the chart that accompanies the Journal piece. The number of young adults living with their parents rose in the 70s. And the 80s. And the aughts. And the teens. Basically, it’s been on an upward trend for nearly half a century. That seems more noteworthy to me than the fact that it failed to blip slightly downward after the Great Recession ended.

Part of the reason, of course, is that people have been getting married and settling down later in life. According to the OECD, the average age at first marriage has increased nearly five years just since 1990, and ranges between 30 and 35 around the world:

The United States is still at the low end of the world average.

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Living At Home Has Become Steadily More Popular Since the 1960s

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You Thought California’s Drought Couldn’t Get Any Worse? Enter Fracking.

Mother Jones

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I have a great idea. Let’s take one of the globe’s most important agricultural regions, one with severe water constraints and a fast-dropping water table. And let’s set up shop there with a highly water-intensive form of fossil fuel extraction, one that throws off copious amounts of toxic wastewater. Nothing could possibly go wrong … right? Well…

Almost 3 billion gallons of oil industry wastewater have been illegally dumped into central California aquifers that supply drinking water and farming irrigation, according to state documents obtained by the Center for Biological Diversity. The wastewater entered the aquifers through at least nine injection disposal wells used by the oil industry to dispose of waste contaminated with fracking fluids and other pollutants.

The documents also reveal that Central Valley Water Board testing found high levels of arsenic, thallium and nitratescontaminants sometimes found in oil industry wastewaterin water-supply wells near these waste-disposal operations.

That’s from the Center for Biological Diversity. Hat tip DeSmogBlog.

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You Thought California’s Drought Couldn’t Get Any Worse? Enter Fracking.

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