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On the Wing – Alan Tennant

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On the Wing

To the Edge of the Earth with the Peregrine Falcon

Alan Tennant

Genre: Nature

Price: $1.99

Publish Date: September 7, 2004

Publisher: Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group

Seller: Penguin Random House LLC


In this extraordinary journey, Alan Tennant recounts his attempt to track the transcontinental migration of the majestic peregrine falcon — an investigation no one before him had ever taken to such lengths. From the windswept flats of the Texas barrier islands to the Artic and then south again into the Caribbean, On the Wing provides a hilariously picaresque and bumpy flight.

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On the Wing – Alan Tennant

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Wednesday Was the Most Dangerous Day So Far of the Trump Presidency

Mother Jones

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By now we all know the story of President Trump’s sudden U-turn on NAFTA earlier this week. But just to refresh your memories, here is the Washington Post:

“I was all set to terminate,” Trump said in an Oval Office interview Thursday night. “I looked forward to terminating. I was going to do it.”…At one point, he turned to Kushner, who was standing near his desk, and asked, “Was I ready to terminate NAFTA?”

“Yeah,” Kushner said, before explaining the case he made to the president: “I said, ‘Look, there’s plusses and minuses to doing it,’ and either way he would have ended up in a good place.”

The basic story here is that Trump is a child. He was all ready to pull the trigger, but then his advisors brought in a colorful map showing that lots of red states and counties would be harmed by pulling out of NAFTA. Eventually Trump calmed down and normalcy reigned for another day.

But here’s the part of the story I still don’t understand: what happened on Wednesday that suddenly put a burr up Trump’s ass to pull out of NAFTA? Just a few weeks ago he sent a list of negotiating points to Congress, and both Mexico and Canada have agreed the treaty needs some updating. Things were moving along fairly normally, and then suddenly Trump woke up one morning and decided to light off a nuclear bomb.

What was that all about? Was it really because of Trump’s obsession over having some kind of accomplishment to show for his first hundred days? Did he eat a taco that didn’t agree with him? Did Steve Bannon have a late-night talk with him?

This was the reason all along that Trump was a far more dangerous candidate than Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio. From a liberal point of view, his incompetence was a bonus that might restrict the short-term damage he could do. But Trump also brought to the table a noxious racist appeal, an ugly nationalism, an appalling level of ignorance, and a mercurial temperament. All of these were on display Wednesday. Apparently out of nowhere, and for no particular reason, he just strolled into the Oval Office and decided he wanted to formally withdraw from NAFTA.

Why? And what are the odds he’s going to do this again on something more important? Something that, for whatever reason, his aides can’t talk him out of with a colorful map and another diet Coke?

I’m not sure everyone realizes that this is the most dangerous thing Trump has done so far. It was a close-run thing, but next time it might not be. And we still have 1,361 days left to go of Trump’s presidency.

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Wednesday Was the Most Dangerous Day So Far of the Trump Presidency

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Chart of the Day: Brexit Would Have Turned Out Very Differently if Kids Turned Out to Vote

Mother Jones

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This will come as no surprise, but here’s the fundamental reason that Brexit won:

The younger the voter, the more strongly they voted to remain in the EU. The older the voter, the more likely they were to actually get out and vote. Eventually the kids are going to figure out how badly their elders are screwing them, and maybe then they’ll finally muster the energy to cast a ballot. I wonder what it’s going to take to make that happen?

(Preference via YouGov. Turnout via SkyData.)

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Chart of the Day: Brexit Would Have Turned Out Very Differently if Kids Turned Out to Vote

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Relearning the Past: Yes, Rising Inequality is Bad for Economic Growth

Mother Jones

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Does high income inequality lead to lower economic growth? There are two main reasons to think it might. The first is simple: rich people spend a smaller percentage of their income than the non-rich. Thus, as more and more income accrues to the rich, we get less net consumption and thus slower growth.

The evidence on this score turns out to be pretty hazy. It seems logical, but if you look at consumption trends over time you just don’t see it. But there’s a second theory that’s more interesting: as inequality rises, the rich increasingly need to find good places to invest all the money they’re accumulating. Eventually concrete business opportunities start to become scarce, so they look around for other places to put their money to work. In practice, this means the rich become net lenders to the middle class. They can hardly be loaning money to each other, after all, since they all have more of it than they can use for current consumption.

So the rich lend money to the middle class, which is an eager recipient because their incomes are stagnant. But as the debt load of the middle class increases, this lending becomes ever more Byzantine and ever more risky. Eventually, the middle class simply can’t take on more debt and the whole system comes to a screeching halt. The result is an economic recession as consumers try to work themselves out from under the mountain of debt they’ve run up.

There’s an intriguing amount of evidence to back up this theory, and in a new report released yesterday a team of IMF researchers provides another reason to believe it. They find that high inequality is indeed associated with slower growth, but the mechanism for that slower growth comes in reduced growth spells. That is, it’s not that countries with high inequality have steady growth rates that happen to be a little lower than countries with low inequality. Rather, they have shorter spells of economic expansion. In particular, the authors find that a 1-point increase in a country’s GINI score (a measure of inequality) is associated with a decrease of about 7 percent in the length of its growth spells.

In other words, countries with high inequality simply can’t maintain economic booms as long as countries with lower inequality. This is consistent with the idea that growth in these countries is driven partly by the rich loaning money to the middle class, which is obviously less sustainable than growth driven by an increase in middle-class wages. In high-inequality countries, growth is too dependent on financialization and leverage. When the merry-go-round stops, as it inevitably must, the boom times are over.

The IMF team also found that—within reason—redistribution doesn’t seem to harm growth. In fact, just the opposite: “The combined direct and indirect effects of redistribution—including the growth effects of the resulting lower inequality—are on average pro-growth.”

To pick up on the theme of the previous post, this is something we all understood back in the era when unions were powerful advocates for the middle class. Of course rising middle-class wages are a prerequisite for sustainable growth in a mixed consumer economy like ours. And the more stagnant those wages are—and the aughts were by far the worst decade for stagnant wages since World War II—the more fragile economic growth is.

Now we have an IMF report to add to the technical evidence that middle-class wage stagnation is bad for the economy. But who has the raw political power to force the business community to listen to it?

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Relearning the Past: Yes, Rising Inequality is Bad for Economic Growth

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