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Chevron is pleased with how much money it made last year, which is nice

by anjunonstennyao Posted on January 11, 2013

Chevron is pleased with how much money it made last year, which is nice

By Philip Bump

Hey, hey! Happy times at Chevron headquarters, located at 10 Satan Street in a secret city that hovers out of sight behind storm clouds. The company’s fourth quarter profits will be “notably higher” than third quarter profits! (Third quarter revenues for the company were only $56 billion. Sad face.)

Bruna CostaChevron headquarters, somewhat obscured

From Bloomberg:

The outline given by the second-largest U.S. oil producer by market value hints at a bright succession of earnings reports when the world’s biggest publicly traded energy producers begin releasing results in coming weeks, said Brian Youngberg, an analyst at Edward Jones & Co. in St. Louis.

“Chevron’s results certainly provide an optimistic preview of what its peers in the integrated energy sector have in store,” Youngberg said in a telephone interview yesterday.

Hooray! Optimism in these dark times. Refreshing.

As for ExxonMobil:

Exxon, based in Irving, Texas, is expected to report net income of $43.8 billion for 2012, according to the average of six analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Clap clap clap clap! It will either spend that $43 billion by giving $6 to every living human being or by buying more things that enable it to suck more oil out of the ground more quickly to hasten the planet’s wrenching slide into a changed climate. (Sad face.)

Somewhere, behind the darkest cloud in the night sky, a toast is made. “To as much as we can get, as soon as we can get it.” Glasses clink. A single lightning bolt flashes to the ground leaving a scorched “X” that marks yet another place to drill.

Source

Chevron Strikes Optimistic Note for Quarterly Earnings, Bloomberg

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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Chevron is pleased with how much money it made last year, which is nice

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On Sea Level Rise, More Experts Lean Toward High End

by anjunonstennyao Posted on January 7, 2013

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If you want to imagine what the future, climate-changed world will look like, one of the biggest questions is by how much, exactly, the sea levels will increase. Rising tides have already become one of the most prominent climate change impacts, threatening coastal communities from Virginia to Palau and amplifying the damage of storms like Sandy. Estimates vary: 2007’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report pegged the figure at somewhere around a foot by 2100, while a December study from NOAA went as high as 6.6 feet. But a swath of recent studies put the estimate at around three feet, including a report out Sunday in Nature Climate Change. From NBC:

Melting glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland may push up global sea levels more than 3 feet by the end of this century, according to a scientific poll of experts that brings a degree of clarity to a murky and controversial slice of climate science.

Such a rise in the seas would displace millions of people from low-lying countries such as Bangladesh, swamp atolls in the Pacific Ocean, cause dikes in Holland to fail, and cost coastal mega-cities from New York to Tokyo billions of dollars for construction of sea walls and other infrastructure to combat the tides.

“The consequences are horrible,” Jonathan Bamber, a glaciologist at the University of Bristol and a co-author of the study, said.

While efforts to stem the rising sea, like reducing greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, are always worth pursuing, in light of the mounting evidence for large-scale changes it seems prudent for more coastal cities to take a lead from places like New York and start preparing for a closer coastline.

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On Sea Level Rise, More Experts Lean Toward High End

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Mother Jones’ Best Interviews of 2012

by anjunonstennyao Posted on January 4, 2013

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A good interview gives us access to people and ideas that often stay behind the curtain. But it can do more than that: As British journalist Lynn Barber has said, that the best interviews “sing the strangeness and variety of the human race.” We certainly covered both this year, chatting up everyone from children’s author Phillip Pullman to adventurer Felicity Aston to rising star of comedy W. Kamau Bell. Here are 12 of our favorites from 2012, one for each month, with even more below. We hope you have as much fun exploring them as we had talking to these fascinating and talented people.

Project Runway’s Top Gunn
Tim Gunn on revolutionary fashion, the “It Gets Better” campaign, and why you’re never too smart for style.

Interrogating the NY Times’ Anthony Shadid
Shortly before his death, we spoke to the revered war correspondent about sneaking into syria, being kidnapped in Libya, and the high cost of getting the story in a war zone.

Wendell Pierce Goes to Market
The actor from The Wire and Treme on launching supermarkets in New Orleans and why Americans avoid reality on TV.

The Woman Who Skied Antarctica Solo
Adventurer Felicity Aston on her 59 days amid ferocious wind storms, treacherous glaciers, and breathtaking white solitude.

Timothy Noah: Mind the Income Gap
The prize-winning author of “The Great Divergence” on why the middle class never gets a raise.

Lizz Winstead Has an Opinion on That!
“The Daily Show” co-creator on her new memoir, our worthless media, and how people keep trying to mess with her “crazy-ass uterus.”

What Regina Spektor Sees from the Cheap Seats
The pioneering pop songstress on invented sounds, gay rights as sci-fi, and how it feels to be labeled a weirdo.

Can Code for America Save Our Broke Cities?
Jen Pahlka on dumb bureaucracy, government as a vending machine, and Silicon Valley sexism.

Michael Chabon’s Vinyl Draft
The Pulitzer prize-winning novelist on race, procrastination, adn his new book, “Telegraph Avenue.”


Some of W. Kamau Bell’s Best Jokes Are Black
The star of FX’s new, racially charged comedy show “Totally Biased” on his white baby—and how Chris Rock saved him from selling condoms.

His Grimm Materials: A Conversation With Philip Pullman
The best-selling author on his new fairy tale collection, writerly superstitions, and what his daemon would look like.

Van Jones on Obama: Climate is going to Be the Issue He’s Judged On.”
The green-jobs guru thinks his former boss has an opportunity to tackle global warming. (But will he take it?)

Some others you don’t want to miss…
Portlandia star Fred Armisen
Author/chef Tamar Adler
Electronic dance music pioneer Paul van Dyk
Journalist Elizabeth Weil
Sex columinist and gay-rights activist Dan Savage
Built to Spill’s Doug Martsch
The Shins’ James Mercer
The Wire actress Sonja Sohn
Actor and anti-fracking activist Mark Ruffalo
Jason Olberholtzer, cocreator of the “I Love Charts” Tumblr
Sports columnist and Friday Night Lights author Buzz Bissinger
Graphic novelist and director Marjane Satrapi
tUnE-yArDs’ powerhouse Merrill Garbus
New media “inventor” Robin Sloan
Radio Ambulante host Daniel Alarcon

You can peruse our entire archive of interviews here.

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Mother Jones’ Best Interviews of 2012

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Who Gerrymanders More, Democrats or Republicans?

by anjunonstennyao Posted on January 4, 2013

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A couple of months ago I linked to a bit of research showing the effect of gerrymandering on House races. Long story short, Eric McGhee concluded that gerrymandering produced about 7 extra Republican seats this year while Sam Wang figured it at about 6.3 seats. A few days ago, Sam took a deeper dive into the data (read his full post if you want to understand his simulation methodology) and came up with a bit more detail about how that breaks down. His bottom line number is now slightly higher than it was before, showing a Republican advantage of about 7.1 seats, but the reason this number is so low is a little surprising. I’ve modified his main results table a bit for the nine states that show a substantial discrepancy between vote share and seat share. Here it is:

D %vote

D sim

R sim

D seats

R seats

Discrepancy

Pennsylvania

50.7%

8.4

9.6

5

13

R+3.4

Texas

39.9%

9.4

26.6

12

24

D+2.6

Ohio

47.9%

6.5

9.5

4

12

R+2.5

North Carolina

50.9%

6.2

6.8

4

9

R+2.2

Michigan

52.7%

7.2

6.8

5

9

R+2.2

Arizona

45.6%

3.2

5.8

5

4

D+1.8

Virginia

49.0%

3.7

5.3

2

7

R+1.7

Illinois

55.4%

10.3

7.7

12

6

D+1.7

Indiana

45.8%

3.2

5.8

2

7

R+1.2

Nonpartisan

D+4.4

D-controlled

D+1.7

R-controlled

R+13.2

Net, all 9 states

48.5%

58.1

83.9

51

91

R+7.1

There was serious gerrymandering in only one Democratic state: Illinois, for a total advantage of 1.7 seats. But there was serious gerrymandering in six Republican states, for a total advantage of 13.2 seats. Republicans tried hard to gerrymander themselves into a majority, but it turned out that two nonpartisan states (a commission in Arizona and a court in Texas) ended up producing 4.4 extra Democratic seats.

Bottom line: The net result is still fairly modest, thanks to the vagaries of nonpartisan redistricting. At the same time, the effect of partisan gerrymandering is larger than we thought. The sum of Democratic and Republican gerrymandering is a net Republican advantage of 11.5 seats. That’s still not enough to say that the Republican House majority is solely due to gerrymandering, but it’s close.

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Who Gerrymanders More, Democrats or Republicans?

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House Republicans Derail Bill Targeting Rapists

by anjunonstennyao Posted on January 3, 2013

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In the past year, Republicans have gone wild when it comes to rape. They blocked the renewal of the Violence Against Women Act because it would have given tribal courts broader jurisdiction over rape on Native American lands. They told women they can’t get pregnant from rape and that babies that result from rape are God’s will. Though the GOP did pay a political price for some of this (see: Rep. Todd Akin), as the 112th Congress was hurriedly finishing up its business in the past few days, House Republicans yet again played politics with rape and sabotaged a bipartisan bill that would have made it easier to track down rapists.

The Sexual Assault Forensic Evidence Registry Act, also known as the SAFER Act of 2012, was introduced by Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in the Senate in May, and by Rep. Ted Poe (R-Texas) in the House in December. It would have reallocated $117 million to help make a dent in the nationwide backlog of untested “rape kits,” which contain forensic evidence collected after sexual assaults that can help identify perpetrators. There are some 400,000 untested kits sitting in labs around the country. As long as this DNA evidence goes unanalyzed, it’s easier for rapists to avoid arrest and prosecution.

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House Republicans Derail Bill Targeting Rapists

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Kyoto’s first phase expires as greenhouse gas emissions and dirty energy use spike

by anjunonstennyao Posted on January 2, 2013

Kyoto’s first phase expires as greenhouse gas emissions and dirty energy use spike

By Philip Bump

In 1997, most of the world’s nations signed on to the Kyoto Protocol, a treaty intended to fight climate change. The goal was to gradually cut greenhouse gas emissions through the end of 2012, the first commitment period. How’d we do? From the CBC:

The controversial and ineffective Kyoto Protocol’s first stage comes to an end today, leaving the world with 58 per cent more greenhouse gases than in 1990, as opposed to the five per cent reduction its signatories sought.

Ah, well. Worth a shot!

If there is anything good that came out of the Kyoto experience, it is that the issue it tried and failed to tackle is now top of mind, says [Steven Guilbeault of Equiterre, a Montreal-based environmental group].

“That’s probably one of the biggest accomplishments of the Kyoto Protocol, is making climate change something that’s part of our everyday life.”

You know what else is making climate change something that’s part of our everyday life? Climate change.

One reason Kyoto has been such a failure is its unenforceability. As our David Roberts put it on Twitter:

For example, in the United States. President George W. Bush refused to support the protocol out of fear it would hurt the American economy. Our carbon emissions plummeted anyway — thanks largely to the economic slowdown.

Another reason Kyoto failed is that it exempted China, India, and other “developing” countries from emissions cuts during its first phase. By the end of 2011, coal use globally reached a new high, spurred by China and India.

From the Worldwatch Institute:

Coal use increased by 5.4 percent to 3,724.3 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) from the end of 2010 to the end of 2011. Demand for natural gas grew by 2.2 percent in 2011, reaching 2,905.6 mtoe. …

Spurred mainly by demand growth in China and India, coal’s share in the global primary energy mix reached 28 percent in 2011 — its highest point since the International Energy Agency began keeping statistics in 1971. While the United States remained one of the world’s largest coal users, consumption growth in 2011 was concentrated among countries that are not part of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), including China and India. Consumption in non-OECD countries grew by 8.4 percent to 2,625.7 mtoe. These countries accounted for 70.5 percent of global coal consumption in 2011.

We can expect to see that pattern continue as other nations increase energy use. Africa, for example, is seeing a boom in energy production and consumption. From The Christian Science Monitor:

Africa, home to 15 percent of the world’s population, consumes just 3 percent of the world’s energy output, and 587 million people, including close to three-quarters of those living in Sub-Saharan Africa, still have no access to electricity via national grids.

But the situation is changing, and swiftly. At 4.1 percent growth, Africa’s per capita energy consumption is growing faster than anywhere else, driven by improved infrastructure, inward investment, and efforts to tackle corruption.

Meanwhile, in the last five years, there have been 64 major discoveries of potential new fuel supplies — mostly oil and gas deposits. Of those, 13 were found in the first eight months of 2012 alone.

Overall, international growth in energy consumption is far outpacing interational efforts to reduce emissions.

Later this year, Poland will host the 19th annual U.N. climate summit. At worst, it can only tie last year’s summit for ineffectiveness. At best, an agreement will be reached to again try and curb global greenhouse gas emissions.

And in an ideal world choked with optimism, it might actually work.

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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Kyoto’s first phase expires as greenhouse gas emissions and dirty energy use spike

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Fiscal Cliff Talks Now Entering La-La-Land Stage

by anjunonstennyao Posted on December 31, 2012

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I have deliberately ignored the fiscal cliff machinations over the past few days. It’s a holiday weekend, after all, and the rumors and reports of rumors barely seemed worth acknowledging anyway.

But the 11th hour is now upon us, so where are we? As near as I can tell, we’re in la-la-land. A grand bargain has been off the table ever since John Boehner fell on his face when his own colleagues wouldn’t support his “Plan B” proposal, so now we’re looking at a non-grand bargain. Supposedly, this will just be a small deal that keeps middle-class income taxes from rising but not much else.

So what’s the latest gossip? Well, over the weekend Republicans briefly tried to insist that Social Security be cut (via adoption of chained CPI), but then backed down immediately when it became clear that they’d actually have to take ownership of the idea, rather than pretending that it was a Democratic demand and they were merely acquiescing to it. As usual, when it comes to entitlement cuts, Republicans like to talk a big game, but are unwilling to make actual proposals that they can be held accountable for.

So now what? Supposedly, Republicans are now suggesting a deal in which taxes go up for those making over $450,000, rather than those making over $250,000. This is ridiculous. Not only would it raise only a tiny sum, but it won’t even have much impact on the rich unless it’s also accompanied by increases in the capital gains, dividends, and estate taxes, all of which Republicans are fighting. At the same time, taxes on the working class would go up because Republicans are insisting on the expiration of the payroll tax cut and the stimulus tax cuts. In return for this absurdly wealth-tilted deal, Democrats would get….something. It’s not really clear what. Perhaps a one-year delay of the sequestration spending cuts. But since those cuts affect both defense spending and domestic spending, that’s something Republicans want as much as Democrats. Ditto for the AMT patch and the doc fix, which are basically nonpartisan. Brian Beutler wraps things up pretty well:

In a tremendous irony, Republican requests for lower tax rates, a high estate tax threshold, and a permanent AMT fix — combined with Democratic requests to delay the sequester, include a “doc fix” for Medicare physicians, and extend emergency unemployment benefits — have left the parties negotiating toward a plan that would result in no net deficit reduction over 10 years on a current-policy baseline, according to Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin.

This is nuts. I suppose the details could end up looking better than I think, but honestly, based on what I’m seeing so far, Democrats would be crazy to agree to this. At the very least, we need a clean tax increase on high-income Americans. If the only way to get that is to let tax rates go up tomorrow, and then negotiate from there, then that’s what they should do. It’s time to stop the serial cave-ins to the tax jihadists in the Republican Party.

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Fiscal Cliff Talks Now Entering La-La-Land Stage

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