Author Archives: BakenKesselring341

Keeping Score in Today’s Republican Cage Match

Jonathan Collegio, one of Karl Rove’s minions at his new Conservative Victory Project, raised some eyebrows yesterday when he called Brent Bozell, founder of the conservative Media Research Center, a “hater.” Unsurprisingly, this touched off a round of vitriol on the right, which I’m going to ignore. Instead, let’s focus on the real question: Was Collegio right? Is Bozell a hater? Paul Waldman fills us in:

So, is Brent Bozell a “hater”? Oh heavens, yes. In case you aren’t familiar with him, Bozell may well be Washington’s angriest man, and one of the least effective spokespeople Republicans could find for their cause….With one or two exceptions (Bill Donohue of the Catholic League comes to mind), there’s almost no one in public life more consumed by hate than Bozell. He positively vibrates with hate. I had my own encounter with him in 2004, when we appeared on “The O’Reilly Factor” and had what I thought was a perfectly run-of-the-mill disagreement about the presidential race; afterward he stormed into the greenroom, shouted that John Kerry and I were both liars, and when I asked him (politely and calmly, I assure you) what specifically he was referring to, he sputtered, “Uh…fuck you!” and stormed out.

So there you have it. Obligatory apologies aside, it sounds like Collegio picked his target pretty carefully.

Originally posted here – 

Keeping Score in Today’s Republican Cage Match

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Another week, another oil tanker hijacking

Another week, another oil tanker hijacking

Last week, we explained why piracy has shifted from Africa’s east coast to its west. In short: higher security near Somalia combined with a new strategy near Nigeria. In at least one hijacking, pirates sought a tanker’s cargo of oil instead of ransoms for crew members.

Or, rather, in at least two hijackings. From the AP:

A French-owned oil tanker missing off Ivory Coast with 17 sailors on board likely has been hijacked, an official with an international piracy watchdog said Monday, in what may be the latest attack by criminal gangs targeting the ships to steal their valuable cargo. Meanwhile, a sailor died in a similar attack Monday near Nigeria’s largest city.

Details remained scarce Monday about the fate of the ship, flagged in Luxembourg. The ship had been reported missing Sunday and officials believe it fell victim to the same pirates operating throughout the Gulf of Guinea, said Noel Choong, a spokesman for the International Maritime Bureau in Malaysia.

usnavy

Pirates surrender to a U.S. Navy vessel near Somalia in 2011.

This is on top of two near misses.

The presumed attack Sunday comes amid a series of escalating attacks in the Gulf of Guinea, which follows the continent’s southward curve from Liberia to Gabon. On Monday, pirates attacked another oil tanker anchored off Nigeria’s largest city, Lagos, shooting one of the crew members, Choong said. The sailor died while in transit to a local hospital, the maritime bureau later said, though offering no other details.

A security detail from the Nigerian navy shot back at the attackers, driving them away, the bureau said. Commodore Kabir Aliyu, a spokesman for Nigeria’s navy, declined to immediately comment about the attack.

In another attack Thursday off Nigeria’s oil-rich southern delta, pirates on several small boats assaulted another tanker. In a sign of how violent the attacks have grown, the pirates fired a rocket-propelled grenade at the tanker during the onslaught, which missed the ship, the maritime bureau said. The crew suffered no injuries in the attack and their ship escaped, though it sustained damage from the gunfire, the bureau said.

As we’ve mentioned before, some of the region’s oil is headed for America’s East Coast. When pirates plagued the coast of Somalia, corporations hired security teams and the U.S. Navy got involved. It would be very surprising if similar measures weren’t under discussion at Shell and Chevron at this very minute.

Source

French tanker likely hijacked off Ivory Coast, Associated Press

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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Another week, another oil tanker hijacking

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Friday Cat Blogging – 18 January 2013

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This week’s set decoration idea comes from my sister (aka Inkblot’s Aunt, in comments). Get a box, she said, put a quilt in the box, and then put the cat in the box. Or, better yet, just wait for the cat to hop into the box on her own. After all, a cat in a box is a timeless theme of catblogging, no?

We did this outdoors because our recent cold snap turned into a warm spell this week, so Domino was already outside sunning herself when I hauled out my camera. Besides, the light is better. This week features a second iteration of the Yellow Brick Road quilt design, which you can compare to last week’s version here. It’s machine pieced and machine quilted.

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Friday Cat Blogging – 18 January 2013

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Congressional Democrats Unveil New Bills to Battle Big-Money Donors

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On Wednesday, Democrats in Congress took their first big step of the 113th Congress toward staunching the flow of money into US political campaigns. A group of House Democrats unveiled a trio of political money-themed bills, each proposing to establish new public campaign financing that would reward candidates for hauling in lots of small donations instead of fewer, larger ones, by matching small-dollar donations with public funds and tightening the rules governing super-PACs.

The 2012 presidential election marked the first time since the post-Watergate creation of public financing system that neither party’s candidate accepted public money to fund his campaign. And little surprise why: Had they accepted public financing, Obama and Romney would’ve received a paltry $45.6 million for the primary season and $91.2 million each for the general election. Instead Obama raised roughly $1.2 billion overall and Romney raised more than $900 million.

In addition to revamping the public financing of federal elections to encourage more courting of small donors, the “Empowering Citizens Act,” introduced by Reps. David Price (D-N.C.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), would beef up rules banning coordination between super-PACs and campaigns, which critics say aren’t strong enough right now. Congressional Democrats point to super-PACs such as Restore Our Future, which spent $152 million solely to elect Romney, and Priorities USA Action, which spent $74 million to elect Obama, as evidence of the blurry lines between candidate-specific super-PACs and the candidates’ campaign. For instance, Romney appeared at a fundraiser for Restore Our Future, and top Obama advisers such as David Plouffe and David Axelrod spoke at Priorities events. (Conservatives dismiss the notion that this constitutes coordination and say Democrats just want to restrict the speech of outside groups with whom they don’t agree.)

Another of the new bills, the “Grassroots Democracy Act” offered by Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Md.), would create a small-donor matching system as well as a “People’s Fund,” which would send additional federal money to candidates in races flooded with outside money and, in Sarbanes’ words, “the voices of grassroots candidates are being drowned out.” The third bill, the “Fair Elections Now Act” introduced by Reps. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) and Chellie Pingree (D-Me.), would provide a 5-to-1 match of donations of $100 or less from in-state donors in the primary and general elections.

In the weeks ahead, House Democrats say, they plan to hash out a compromise bill that incorporates what they believe are the best ideas of the three bills introduced on Wednesday. Of course, with Republicans in control of the House, any legislation aimed at reforming money in politics is dead-on-arrival. But with the ebb and flow of Congressional control, Democrats will inevitably find themselves back in charge of the House in two or four or six years, and when they do, Democrats and reform advocates say they want a tough, comprehensive campaign finance bill ready to grab off the shelf and put into play.

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Congressional Democrats Unveil New Bills to Battle Big-Money Donors

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We’re Almost Done With Deficit Reduction!

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The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has taken a look at projected future deficits and concludes that we need an additional $1.4 trillion in savings in order to stabilize the debt/GDP ratio at 73 percent by 2022. The chart on the right tells the story.

What’s really so striking about this is what they say after diving a little further into the numbers. If we split this equally between spending cuts and tax increases, we need about $600 billion of each. (The rest comes from interest savings.) That’s $60 billion per year. Or, if we did things rationally, it would come to zero dollars this year, increasing to perhaps $100 billion in 2022. For all the hue and cry from both sides, this is really not a huge amount of money. And if we did it, it would amount to total deficit reduction of nearly $4 trillion over the past couple of years.

This isn’t necessarily what I’d do if I were your benevolent overlord. But it’s hardly the end of the world as a baseline plan for now. After all, we can always change it in a few years if we don’t like how things are turning out.

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We’re Almost Done With Deficit Reduction!

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Chart of the Day: Medicare Not Really in Such Bad Shape After All

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Austin Frakt passes along this chart, which made the rounds yesterday, illustrating the projected growth of Medicare over the next 20 years:

Scary! Or is it? As Austin points out, most of the growth is simply due to an aging population. No matter how much of a fiscal hawk you are, you simply can’t blame that on out-of-control spending or liberal utopianism. It’s just demographics, and it’s baked into the cake no matter how much we dislike it. This is money we’re going to spend, and the sooner everyone accepts that the better.

Then there’s the “excess” cost growth in red. It amounts to a grand total of three-quarters of a percentage point of GDP by 2035. That’s really….not so much. And even this projection assumes that Obamacare’s IPAB panel, which is designed to rein in cost growth, never gets implemented. See update below.

In any case, if this forecast is right, it tells us two things. First, our population is aging and we’re going to pay for that. Deal with it. Second, Medicare is going to have some excess growth above that, and we should look for ways to get that under control. But that excess growth is fairly modest; we already have laws on the books to address some of it if we just have the fortitude to follow through; and healthcare wonks on both the left and right have plenty of sensible ideas for reining it in further.

Healthcare is a problem. But it’s not an insurmountable one. If we could stop wasting time on fiscal cliffs and debt ceiling hysteria and all the other nonsense that consumes us at the moment, there really are things we could do about this. Our future is not the budgetary nightmare that conservatives keep trying to make it out to be.

UPDATE: Actually, it turns out that this projection does assume that IPAB is implemented. It also assumes some fairly substantial cost savings from increased productivity in the healthcare sector. That may be overly optimistic. Austin Frakt has more here.

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Chart of the Day: Medicare Not Really in Such Bad Shape After All

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Obama’s Superior Organization Probably Didn’t Win the Election for Him

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I’m not a fundamentals absolutist. That is to say, I don’t believe that presidential elections are won and lost based on the state of the economy and not much else. Still, fundamentals play a huge role, and Larry Bartels reminds us today that despite all the hue and cry about how Obama won despite a lousy economy, he actually did about as well as you’d expect a one-term incumbent to do with the economy he had:

We have lots of distinct but broadly consistent statistical analyses of presidential election outcomes. My own favorite is based on just two factors: the income growth rate in the second and third quarters of the election year and the incumbent party’s tenure in office.

…. The 2012 election outcome [] fits the historical pattern of post-war presidential election results splendidly; Obama’s popular vote margin was 3.8%, while his expected margin (based on the preliminary tabulations of real disposable income currently available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis) was 4.6%.

….Anyone who wants to believe that Obama’s “formidable campaign” (or whatever) won him more votes than an ordinary campaign would have won should feel free to do so, but should be required to propose some equally plausible source(s) of vote losses to balance the ledger.

Bartels’ regression line is based on a simple formula that takes into account two things: number of years in office and the growth of real disposable income per capita between Q1 and Q3 of the election year. Income growth this year between Q1 and Q3 was about 0.3 percent, and when you plug that into his formula you get a prediction that Obama would win the election by 4.6 percentage points. Read his whole post for all the usual caveats and warnings.

In comments, Bartels notes that one implication of this formula is that “events before the start of the election year have no effect, for better or worse.” This isn’t quite true, of course. The real implication is that presidents should do anything they can to make sure the economy is on an upward trajectory in the fourth year of their term. Income growth doesn’t come out of the blue, after all. Conversely, the out party should do everything it can to sabotage the economy. If Republican obstructionism had managed to shave another point or so off the growth rate, Mitt Romney might have won.

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Obama’s Superior Organization Probably Didn’t Win the Election for Him

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