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There’s been a mysterious rise in ozone-destroying emissions

Thought the ozone layer was safe? Think again.

CFC-11 is an ozone-depleting chemical whose phase out agreed upon in the ’80s and has been under an international ban since 2010. That’s why National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration researchers were surprised to discover it’s increased in the atmosphere by 25 percent since 2012. A research letter published Wednesday in the journal Nature takes a look at the possible causes for the spike.

“I’ve been making these measurements for more than 30 years, and this is the most surprising thing I’ve seen,” the paper’s lead author, Stephen Montzka, told The Washington Post’s Chris Mooney.

The 1987 Montreal Protocol phased out ozone-damaging chemicals like CFC-11 worldwide. And thanks to the agreement, we’ve avoided a total ozone layer collapse by mid-century. 

Almost no CFC-11 has been been produced since 2006 — or so we thought. The study’s results suggest that someone’s breaking the rules of the agreement. Researchers suspect the spike in the ozone damaging chemical is coming from somewhere in eastern Asia. 

The ultimate impact on the ozone depends on how quickly the culprit is found and stopped. The Guardian reports that if these emissions are left unchecked, it could tack an extra decade onto restoration of the all-important ozone layer, which protects the earth from the sun’s damaging UV radiation.

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There’s been a mysterious rise in ozone-destroying emissions

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Say hello to the man who could dig us out of this whole climate change mess.

The U.S. and all of its major allies have now ratified the Paris climate agreement, pushing it over the threshold needed for it to go into effect in 30 days — just before the U.S. presidential election.

Donald Trump has promised to “cancel” Paris if he’s elected — and that may have unintentionally sped things along.

Robert Stavins, director of the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements, told Grist by email, “the threat of a Trump presidency has pushed countries to go forward with ratification more quickly than anyone had anticipated at the time of Paris.” For historical comparison, ratification of the Kyoto Protocol took five years.

Once the deal is underway, it would be more difficult for Trump to extract the U.S. He’d need to give three years notice and allot an additional year for withdrawal.

Still, Trump could simply decide not to deliver on the U.S.’s pledges, by, say, refusing to implement the Clean Power Plan.

Even then, Stavins argues that progress would continue to be made in energy efficiency and at the state level. “Trump could slow down action on climate change, but not as dramatically as Trump may think he could.”

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Say hello to the man who could dig us out of this whole climate change mess.

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