Author Archives: LKCWilliams

Democrats Blast Obama’s Plan to Allow Oil Drilling Off the East Coast

Mother Jones

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This article originally appeared in the Huffington Post and is republished here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

A group of Senate Democrats from the Northeast is pushing back on the Obama administration’s proposal to open new areas of the Atlantic Ocean to oil and gas drilling.

New Jersey Democratic Sen. Cory Booker called the move “absolutely unacceptable” in a press conference Tuesday afternoon. Joining in the press conference were fellow Democrats Ed Markey (Mass.), Robert Menendez (N.J.) and Ben Cardin (Md.).

“If drilling is allowed off the east coast of the United States, it puts our beaches, our fisherman, and our environment in the crosshairs for an oil spill that could devastate our shores,” said Markey. “We’re going to make it clear we’re very unhappy with this plan…You’re looking at the beginning of an alliance to put pressure on this administration to withdraw this proposal.”

The Obama administration on Tuesday released a draft of its five-year plan to open up drilling, including sales in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia. The plan, which would not begin until 2017, can still be revised.

The Democrats said they would seek to get the administration to change the proposal before it issues its final plan, asking for the removal of all areas on the east coast.

While there are no proposed sales off Maryland, New Jersey or Massachusetts included in the plan, the legislators said a potential spill to the south could imperial their coasts as the oil circulates. They cited billion-dollar coastal industries like tourism and fishing as potentially at risk in the event of a spill. “All of the risk is put on the backs of our shore communities, and all the reward goes to big oil,” said Menendez.

The group also criticized Congress for failing to put in place tougher regulations on offshore drilling in the wake of the 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. While changes were proposed after that spill, they never passed the Senate, even though Democrats were in the majority at that time.

Cardin said that the reserves off the Atlantic Coast “are minimal compared to the risk.” The Department of Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) estimated last year that there are 4.72 billion barrels of recoverable oil and 37.51 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in the Outer Continental Shelf off the entire east coast. The Gulf of Mexico, in contrast, contains an estimated 48.4 billion barrels.

The senators cited a recent report from the environmental group Oceana, which found that offshore wind development has the potential to create twice as many jobs and energy as oil and gas development on the Atlantic coast.

Booker also criticized the plan from a climate change standpoint, arguing that further development of oil and gas would contribute more planet-warming emissions.

“Scientists are clearly telling us we need to leave more than 50 percent of the already known fossil fuel reserves in the ground,” said Booker. “To purse this strategy not only threatens New Jersey…but it also flies in the face of the urgent need for us to have a more comprehensive vision for an energy policy that will make sure we don’t cross that line.”

Virginia’s Democratic Sens. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine have both supported drilling off the coast of their state. In a joint statement Tuesday, they expressed support for the proposal’s goals, but said they want Virginia to be able to share in the revenue the drilling generates. The legislators said they intend to introduce legislation to that effect.

North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia each have two Republican senators who support offshore drilling.

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Democrats Blast Obama’s Plan to Allow Oil Drilling Off the East Coast

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The California Drought May Mean More Earthquakes

Mother Jones

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This story first appeared on the San Francisco Public Press website.

Depletion of groundwater in the San Joaquin Valley is having wide-ranging effects not just on the agricultural industry and the environment, but also on the very earth beneath our feet. Massive changes in groundwater levels in the southern Central Valley are changing the stresses on the San Andreas Fault, according to research published today.

Researchers have known for some time that human activity can be linked to localized seismic effects. In particular, much of the debate about fracking in California in the past few years has centered on evidence that the process of injecting large volumes of liquid underground can lubricate fault lines and increase local earthquake risk.

Now geophysicists in Washington, California and Nevada have gathered evidence that human activity can have much farther-reaching seismic consequences.

This research was spurred by the observation that the southern Sierra Nevadas and the Coastal Ranges are rising by 1 to 3 millimeters a year. Geologists have been observing this movement, which they call uplift, using a network of GPS sensors planted along these mountain ranges. They’ve batted around theories about why it might be happening, with no clear answer.

“It looks like there’s a big bullseye of uplift in the mountains surrounding the south Central Valley,” said Colin Amos, a geologist at Western Washington University in Bellingham.

Ten years of satellite data show that groundwater use in the Central Valley is outpacing its replenishment, a trend that is intensifying in the current drought. Amos wondered if the two things might be connected. “What if uplift in the mountains is a response to sucking water out of the ground?” Amos said.

Amos and his collaborators found something that goes deeper than that—something that could look to a paranoid environmentalist like a grand unified theory of California problems: drought, water use, and earthquake risk. “We found a link between what humans are doing on the ground and the rate of earthquakes,” Amos said. His data and model are published today in the international scientific journal Nature.

There are trends on two timescales. First, there’s a seasonal one. In the late summer and early fall, it rains less and people use more water. During this time, Amos’s group discovered, there is a corresponding peak in the height of the Coastal Ranges and the Sierra Nevada. There is also a long-term trend: Over time, as the groundwater is being depleted, these mountains are growing taller.

To picture how water can play a role in this, think of the Earth’s surface like a flexible sheet of plywood with a weight on it. “The upper portion of the earth is elastic, and the ground water is weighing it down like a brick,” Amos said. Removing groundwater is like lifting that brick. The earth’s crust literally flexes up. As it moves up, it pushes up the Sierra Nevadas and the Coastal Ranges.

The researchers also looked at how this movement might stress the San Andreas Fault, which runs parallel to the San Joaquin Valley. The San Andreas Fault runs roughly the length of the state, stretching from the Palm Desert in the south, up through San Francisco, and north nearly to Eureka. It marks where two of the Earth’s tectonic plates meet. Friction and stress are currently holding the plates locked in place.

When the balance shifts and the faults slip, it leads to tremendous earthquakes, including the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. And even decades after the smaller but still deadly Loma Prieta quake of 1989, Bay Area cities are still grappling with the need to brace billions of dollars worth of vulnerable infrastructure against the Big One. (Read more on San Francisco’s retrofitting efforts at sfpublicpress.org/earthquakes.)

Last year, researchers at the US Geological Survey estimated a 28 percent chance that an earthquake of at least magnitude-6.7 would hit the Bay Area within 10 years. But the ground could shift at any time, and the risk increases the longer the pressure builds in a fault.

Water’s Geologic Effects

If massive changes in groundwater are big enough to move mountains, might they also change stresses on the fault? Amos has calculated that yes, they can. Again looking at short-term and long-term trends, the researchers found that patterns of seasonal microseismicity—rashes of tiny earthquakes—track with yearly changes in water use.

And they suggest a major long-term change: destabilization of the San Andreas fault over time.

“Long-term withdrawal of water in the San Joaquin Valley is leading to a decrease of stress on the San Andreas fault, and this promotes earthquakes,” said Paul Lundgren, a geophysicist at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena. Lundgren is familiar with the research but is not associated with the project.

Andrew Michael, a geophysicist at the United States Geological Survey in Menlo Park, who was also not involved with Amos’s research but has read the results, said that for now it gives scientists a fuller picture of how faults like the San Andreas work. But it is not that useful for predicting earthquake risk in the short term, he said.

This linkage between water and seismic effects is not a new idea, nor is it unique to California. In 2001 and 2003, researchers led by Kosuke Heki at Hokkaido University in Japan showed that variations in snow loads in that country’s mountains tracked with variations in seismic activity.

What is unique in the current research is the link to human activity. California’s groundwater depletion is certainly tied to the drought. But it is also driven by the state’s thirst for drinking water and irrigation, said James Famiglietti, an earth systems scientist at the University of California, Irvine.

Famiglietti directs the University of California Center for Hydrologic Modeling. The center now has about 10 years’ worth of detailed satellite data tracking groundwater depletion in California. From October 2003 to March 2010, the Sacramento and San Joaquin River basins lost nearly 31 cubic kilometers of fresh water. That’s almost the volume of Lake Mead. The latest data show that since the start of the current drought, the decline in groundwater storage has sharpened. From November 2011 through November 2013 alone, an additional 20 cubic kilometers have been depleted. And that does not yet include this year’s record-dry winter. (The center’s latest water advisory, from February, is available in a PDF.)

Geologists’ working assumption is that human activity is too insignificant to play any role in whether large quakes happen. But the new model shows that may not be true, Lundgren said.

That is not to say that this research can give us any fine-grained predictions about when the next big one will be. “Right now we’re considered overdue for an earthquake, but the statistics aren’t good enough that we have a clock,” he said. The time between major earthquakes, he explained, is like time spent going up an escalator where the top is not visible. What the new groundwater model shows, Lundgren said, is that human factors have put us another step or two closer to the next big quake.

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The California Drought May Mean More Earthquakes

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Italian Magazine Giant Steals My Pope Idea

Mother Jones

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The New York Times reports today on a new magazine about Pope Francis:

The 68-page Il Mio Papa (My Pope) will hit Italian newsstands on Ash Wednesday, offering a glossy medley of papal pronouncements and photographs, along with peeks into his personal life. Each weekly issue will also include a pullout centerfold of the pope, accompanied by a quote.

“It’s a sort of fanzine, but of course it can’t be like something you’d do for One Direction,” the popular boy band, said the magazine’s editor, Aldo Vitali. “We aim to be more respectful, more noble.”

Uh huh. Look, can I call it, or can I call it? Below left is my cover mockup cover from a year ago. On the right is the real thing. I demand royalties.

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Italian Magazine Giant Steals My Pope Idea

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