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Donald Trump Has to Reassure Supporters That He’ll Win Arizona

by weask Posted on June 19, 2016

Mother Jones

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On Saturday afternoon in Phoenix, Donald Trump did something no Republican nominee has had to do two decades: He promised to win Arizona.

He also promised to win Connecticut, said he would do “unbelievably well with the Mexicans,” and promised to solve “all of our problems” if elected president. But less than one month after he secured enough delegates to win the Republican presidential nomination, Trump’s usual bombast was surrounded by signs of his campaign’s own mortality.

For one thing, there was the fact that he was even appearing in Phoenix at all. Arizona was a strong state for Trump in the presidential primary, but it is an unusual place for a candidate to spend much time after winning the nomination. The state hasn’t voted for a Democrat in a presidential year since 1996. No Democrats hold statewide office here, and Mitt Romney won the state by more than 10 points in 2012. If Arizona were to become a battleground state, it would most likely signify a landslide. But Clinton leads Trump in Real Clear Politics‘ polling average of the state, and Trump’s rally on Saturday, at the Phoenix Memorial Coliseum—known locally as the “Madhouse on McDowell”—seemed to belie the state’s deep-red reputation. Trump told the crowd he was “up big in the state,” but then said it was “a very important state” and he would win it in the fall. Speaking a short while earlier, former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer, who joined was joined at the event by Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, drew a cheer from the crowd when she promised to “keep Arizona red.” They just might; but the biggest story was that it even needed to be said.

Throughout the event, Trump projected an air of confidence—”I feel like a supermodel except times 10,” he said of his media saturation—but there were signs that all was not going so swell with his campaign. He mocked a Politico story that quoted a Trump adviser suggesting Trump would consider giving up his presidential bid for the right amount of money. According to the story, Trump might accept a $150 million buyout. To hoots from the crowd, Trump boasted that he wouldn’t accept five times that much—but, he conceded, if they offered him $5 billion, he’d be foolish not to consider it. In the build-up to his grand entrance, one surrogate after another had engaged the audience in a call and response. The question was “Who’s the nominee?” After the week he’d had, it was starting to feel a little less than rhetorical.

In his most audacious promise, Trump recalled how he had won victory after victory in northeastern blue states during the Republican primary. His strong showings were a sign, he suggested, that he could compete and win in places like Connecticut in the general election. (A cynical person might note that Republican primaries are usually won by Republicans.) But Hartford will have to wait for another time; for now, he’s just trying to win Arizona.

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Donald Trump Has to Reassure Supporters That He’ll Win Arizona

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These Photos of Sea Creatures Soaked by Oil in California Will Break Your Heart

by weask Posted on May 22, 2015

Mother Jones

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Volunteers fill buckets with oil near Refugio State Beach. Michael A. Mariant/AP

On Tuesday, an oil pipeline burst near Refugio State Beach west of Santa Barbara, California, sending an estimated 105,000 gallons of oil onto the beach. Up to a fifth of that oil is believed to have reached the ocean, Reuters reports.

Now, volunteers and private contractors are racing to clean up the oil. About 6,000 gallons have been collected so far, according to the AP. But damage has already been done. At least two pelicans have been found dead, and five more pelicans and one sea lion were sent for rehabilitation. Biologists have also found many dead fish and lobsters. Local officials have closed the beach at least through Memorial Day, and possibly for “many weeks” after that, one scientist at the scene said.

A young female sea lion affected by the Santa Barbara oil spill receives treatment from the SeaWorld California animal rescue team. Rex Features/AP

The company that owned the pipeline, Plains All American, has one of the country’s worst environmental safety records. An analysis by the Los Angeles Times found that the company’s rate of incidents per mile of pipeline is more than three times the national average. A spokesperson said the company deeply “regrets this release,” but it remains unclear what penalties it could face for this latest accident.

It could be years before the full impact is truly understood, since damage to the ecosystem can sometimes take a while to manifest. Five years after the Deepwater Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico, biologists are still tallying the damage.

Here are some of the latest images coming in from the scene:

Refugio State Beach Santa Barbara News-Press/ZUMA

A small crab covered in oil Troy Harvey/ZUMA

Two whales surfaced near an oil slick off Refugio State Beach. Michael A. Mariant/AP

A dead lobster covered in oil on the shoreline Troy Harvey/ZUMA

Clean-up workers remove a dead octopus from the beach. Mike Eliason/ZUMA

Crews from Patriot Environmental Services collect oil-covered seaweed and sand. Michael A. Mariant/AP

A helicopter coordinates ships below pulling booms to collect oil from the spill. Michael A. Mariant/AP

Clean-up workers monitor the site of the underground oil pipeline break. Michael A. Mariant/AP

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These Photos of Sea Creatures Soaked by Oil in California Will Break Your Heart

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California is dangerously short on snow

by weask Posted on January 6, 2014

California is dangerously short on snow

By

Light Brigading

Lake Tahoe looked enchanting when this photo was taken last month — but there should be much more snow around it than this.

It might be hard for anybody suffering through a Midwestern blizzard to sympathize, but the Sierra Nevada mountain range in California is seriously short on snow.

That’s not just bad news for skiers and for the wintertime industry that caters to them. When the snow melts, it provides water to residents all the way west to San Francisco and south to Los Angeles. It also replenishes streams and rivers used by salmon and other wildlife. Less snow in winter means less water later in the year. (Meanwhile, L.A. just set a new record for the lowest annual rainfall on record.)

Officials measured the Sierra snowpack on Friday and found it to be storing just 19 percent of the average amount of water for this time of year. That matches a record low set at this time last year, suggesting that the region is at the beginning of a third straight year of drought.

California Department of Water Resources

The Sacramento Bee reports:

The state is experiencing one of the driest starts to winter ever recorded, proved by the clear blue skies and record-warm temperatures that have persisted over the past few weeks. …

Even more concerning to state water providers is the forecast. On New Year’s Eve, the National Weather Service predicted that California is likely to see below-average rainfall for the entire month of January. That means the state is likely to emerge from winter with two of its wettest months essentially missing.

“The water situation is bad. We’re kind of in unprecedented conditions,” said John Woodling, executive director of the Sacramento Regional Water Authority, which represents more than two dozen water providers in the capital area. “We’re looking at a year that’s potentially going to be worse than the 1976-77 drought.”

A number of area water agencies already have ordered mandatory 20 percent reductions in water use for residential and business customers.

These are the kinds of dry, snow-deprived conditions that climatologists warn will become more common in the American West as the globe warms. And they’re the kind of conditions that water managers and fire agencies dread. 


Source
Sierra snow survey points to dry year ahead, Sacramento Bee

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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Pentagon Set for Extra Big Sequester Cuts Next Year

by weask Posted on August 19, 2013

Mother Jones

Rep. Chris Van Hollen tells Greg Sargent today that Democrats might have more leverage than people think in upcoming budget battles. That’s because the sequester for next year requires bigger cuts in defense spending than domestic spending:

This hidden leverage, Van Hollen says, flows from a little noticed wrinkle in the design of the sequester that is only being focused on by Capitol Hill aides right now. Because of that wrinkle, defense programs are set to absorb a much bigger spending cut next year than non-defense programs are. If the sequester is not replaced, defense will be cut an additional $20 billion in 2014 below current levels.

…”There’s no negotiating over the principle of parity,” Van Hollen said. “If Republicans want to relieve the $20 billion cut to defense, we must increase non-defense spending by $20 billion. You can’t boost defense at the expense of other investments. That’s got to be a very clear principle.”

I followed the link and I still don’t understand why the Pentagon cuts are going to be bigger than the domestic cuts. I assume it has something to do with next year’s sequester running for a full 12 months instead of the 10 months it ran this year. But that’s true for the domestic half of the sequester too. Perhaps it has something to do with domestic spending mostly being monthly expenses, which means all the cuts have already been made on an ongoing basis, while lots of Pentagon procurement spending is multi-year. I’m not sure.

But one way or another, apparently everyone agrees that the Pentagon will get nicked extra heavily next year and budget negotiations are proceeding on that basis. Just thought I’d pass it along.

UPDATE: The answer is here. It turns out that it all hinges on a different definition of “security” between 2013 and 2014.

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WATCH: Climate Desk Live, Tonight

by weask Posted on August 15, 2013

Mother Jones

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Livestream to begin Thursday, August 15, at 7:30 pm ET.

People are getting tired of the same old story about global warming. They often tune out warnings of impending catastrophe; but it’s not like they trust the deniers, either. The trouble is, the standard global warming narrative is stale and alienating—and perhaps worst of all, stuck in the technical weeds.

Join the conversation on Twitter using #CDLive.

That’s why it’s time to apply lessons from the theory and practice of high quality science communication to this pressing issue. And in a new collaboration called thirst:Climate, Climate Desk Live is co-sponsoring an event to feature frame-breaking talks on climate—talks that are both innovative and thought-provoking. The goal is nothing less than to force us to think differently about the planetary future into which we’re hurtling.

Created in collaboration with thirst DC—an innovative science-based creative agency—and ScienceOnline Climate (a special DC-based iteration of the highly successful annual ScienceOnline conference for web-savvy science communicators), this event will take place on August 15 in Washington, DC. The venue will be 1776, at 1133 15th St NW (just blocks from the White House). Doors open at 6 p.m., and talks start at 7:30. The event is sold out, but you can watch it live right here.

All talks have been specially developed in collaboration with thirst DC’s presentation trainers. The speakers will bring fresh, unconventional storytelling about global warming. The speakers will be:

Kate Sheppard, Mother Jones magazine/Climate Desk: “How to Talk to Your Republican Dad About Global Warming”

Jamie Vernon, American Association for the Advancement of Science, science & technology policy fellow: “How to Get Rich Off of Global Warming”

Liz Burakowski, University of New Hampshire, PhD student in earth and environmental science: “How Global Warming Is Melting the Ski Industry”

Tom Di Liberto, Meteorologist and the first “America’s Science Idol“: “The Wild Weather of the Future: What We Know, What We Kinda Know, and What We Kinda Don’t Know”

Melanie Tannenbaum, Scientific American blogger & University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign PhD student in social psychology: “This Is Your Brain on Climate Change”

James West, producer, Climate Desk. “I Met Our Worst Online Climate Troll (And Kind of Liked Him)”

Hosting the event are the thirst co-founder and creative director, Eric Schulze, and New York Times best-selling author and Climate Desk Live host, Chris Mooney.

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WATCH: Climate Desk Live, Tonight

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Pepsi: Cancer for a new generation?

by weask Posted on July 5, 2013

Pepsi: Cancer for a new generation?

By John Upton

Beyonce’s not worried about additives.

Please don’t take this as an endorsement. But when it comes to avoiding cancer while you gulp down a sugar-blasting brand-name cola, Coke is it.

Pepsi has been lagging behind its main competitor in removing carcinogenic meth from its flagship cola product. Well, 4-methylimidazole, to be precise.

The chemical can form in trace amounts when caramel coloring used in cola is cooked. It has been found to cause cancer in rats.

Everybody who drinks corporate soda has been drinking the stuff for years. That was supposed to come to an end after California began requiring cancer warnings on products containing elevated levels of 4-methylimidazole. The new regulations prompted Coke and Pepsi to announce early last year that they would take steps to remove the chemical from their products nationwide.

But the Center for Environmental Health tested colas and found that while Californians are drinking safer sodas than they were before, some of the colas sold outside of California still contain high levels of the substance. From the nonprofit’s website:

If you live in California, Coke and Pepsi products are made without 4-MEI, a chemical known to cause cancer. But in testing of cola products from ten states, CEH found high levels of 4-MEI in ALL Pepsi cola products, while 9 out of ten Coke products were found without 4-MEI problems.

Pepsi swears it’s on it. From the AP:

Pepsi said its caramel coloring suppliers are changing their manufacturing process to cut the amount of 4-Mel in its caramel. That process is complete in California and will be finished in February 2014 in the rest of the country. Pepsi said it will also be taken out globally, but did not indicate a timeline.

You know, Pepsi and Coke, you could also just stop using caramel food coloring in your colas. But, then, clear cola would just be caffeinated sugar water. And that would be much harder to market as a sexy elixir.

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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A Longer Look at Medical Inflation

by weask Posted on June 18, 2013

Mother Jones

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Eric Morath of the Wall Street Journal reports today that “U.S. health-care costs fell in May for the first time in almost four decades, the latest evidence that government policies and an expansion in generic drugs are constraining prices.”

Maybe. But I’d like to push back on this once again. The chart on the right shows real medical inflation—that is, medical inflation above and beyond overall inflation. As you can see, over the past 30 years it’s been on a noisy but fairly steady downward path. Each peak is lower than the previous one, and the same is true of each trough. If anything, though, this trend has slowed a bit over the past decade. It’s still on a downward slope, but it strikes me as unlikely that government policies have had an awful lot to do with this.

For a somewhat more pessimistic view, take a look at the chart below, which goes back 60 years. Aside from the noise, what you mainly see is a spike in the 1980s, followed by a reversion to the long-term average of about 1.5 percent. In other words, it’s possible that we overreacted to what turned out to be a fairly short-lived swell from about 1983 to 1993 and are now overreacting to the fact that we’ve returned to our long-term average. If this view is accurate, it means that medical inflation has been outrunning overall inflation by about 1.5 percentage points ever since the 1950s, and, roughly speaking, that’s still the case. There’s been a bit of a slowdown over the past decade, but only a bit.

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Banks Are Doing Better Than Ever. The Middle Class, Not So Much.

by weask Posted on May 30, 2013

Mother Jones

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The nation’s banks are reporting record profits, according to new numbers out Wednesday from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Most of the rest of us aren’t faring quite so well.

Bank profits topped $40.3 billion in the first three months of the year, according to the FDIC, attesting to a strong recovery… in the banking sector. “The banks are back,” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told the Washington Post Wednesday. “Only four years after the banking system was literally looking into the abyss, it is highly profitable again.” The biggest banks, including Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Citigroup, accounted for most of the industry’s profits. Here’s what that looks like, via the Post:

The wider economy hasn’t shared the banking sector’s return to prosperity. Yes, the unemployment rate has dropped a little. Consumer confidence is up. The housing market is healthier. But the current share of the population that is employed is still well below what it was before the recession. Here is a chart from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities:

The housing market hasn’t bounced back at the same pace as bank profits, either. As Derek Thompson pointed out at The Atlantic earlier this year, overall business investment is growing, but companies are still reluctant to invest in housing. Here is what that looks like—the red curve is residential housing investment; the blue curve is non-housing investment:

The new FDIC numbers also show that loan balances at banks shrunk in the first three months of the year. As Isaac Boltansky, a banking analyst with Compass Point Research and Trading, told the Post, that’s “a sign that the broader economy still has room for improvement.” Indeed.

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Banks Are Doing Better Than Ever. The Middle Class, Not So Much.

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Nevada utility to stop burning coal, which will probably just be burned somewhere else

by weask Posted on April 4, 2013

Nevada utility to stop burning coal, which will probably just be burned somewhere else

By John Upton

Shutterstock

More good news on America’s shift away from coal: Nevada’s largest utility plans to very gradually shutter its dirty coal generators over the next 12 years.

Some of the coal-fired energy sold by utility company NV Energy will be replaced with renewable sources. But 60 percent of their coal-fired energy will be replaced by that cool-kid fossil fuel that contaminates groundwater supplies: fracked natural gas.

From The Las Vegas Sun:

“This does three things: it retires coal from Nevada, builds renewables, and it creates jobs,” said Tony Sanchez, NV Energy senior vice president.

The amendment calls for the accelerated closing of three of the four units at Reid Gardner, the controversial 553 megawatt coal plant in Moapa, by 2014. It leaves the fourth unit operating until 2017, after which the utility would have no coal plants operating in Southern Nevada.

U.S. Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., has relentlessly called for the closing of the plant, most recently during an address to the Nevada Legislature last month.

(Under the plan, the utility would not divest from its share of ownership in the Navajo and Valmy coal plants until 2017 and 2025, respectively.)

With this proposal (which some have criticized because it will result in higher electricity prices), Nevada joins the air-friendly trend of switching from coal to natural gas and renewable energy.

Trendiness aside, American coal mining hasn’t exactly stopped– it’s just being shipped around the world and burned elsewhere. “Figures released in March by the official U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) show U.S. coal exports reached a record of more than 115 million tons in 2012, more than double the 2009 figure,” Climate News Network recently reported.

From National Geographic:

The United States essentially is exporting a share of its greenhouse gas emissions in the form of coal, data show. If the trend continues, the dramatic changes in energy use in the United States—in particular, the switch from coal to newly abundant natural gas for generating electricity—will have only a modest impact on global warming, observers warn. The Earth’s atmosphere will continue to absorb heat-trapping CO2, with a similar contribution from U.S. coal. It will simply be burned overseas instead of at home.

“Switching from coal to gas only saves carbon if the coal stays in the ground,” said John Broderick, lead author of a study on the issue by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research at England’s Manchester University.

So cheers to Nevada and other states where coal-fired energy production is winding down. But maybe lay off the high-fives until America’s coal actually stays in the mountains.

John Upton is a science aficionado and green news junkie who

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blogs about ecology

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Gene discovery could breed veggies for a warmer planet

by weask Posted on April 1, 2013

Gene discovery could breed veggies for a warmer planet

By Susie Cagle

The nearly $2 billion lettuce industries of California and Arizona are likely to get mighty wilted as temperatures in those hot states continue to rise. But science is here to save the day — with GMOs.

A research team with USDA and National Science Foundation funding has identified a lettuce gene and enzyme that make the plants stop germinating when it’s too hot — so now scientists hope to tweak those lettuces to grow even when they naturally wouldn’t. Currently growers have to cool soil and seeds with extra cool water, at great expense. The study, published in the journal The Planet Cell, was a collaboration between scientists at India’s Ranga Agricultural University, the University of California at Davis, and scientists from Arcadia Biosciences.

“Discovery of the genes will enable plant breeders to develop lettuce varieties that can better germinate and grow to maturity under high temperatures,” said the study’s lead author Kent Bradford, a professor of plant sciences and director of the UC Davis Seed Biotechnology Center.

“And because this mechanism that inhibits hot-weather germination in lettuce seeds appears to be quite common in many plant species, we suspect that other crops also could be modified to improve their germination,” he said. “This could be increasingly important as global temperatures are predicted to rise.”

No word from the researchers, though, on how good that hot lettuce would actually taste. Let’s just flip nature’s off switch — what could go wrong?

Susie Cagle writes and draws news for Grist. She also writes and draws tweets for

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