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As Trump questions warming, climate report warns of dire risks to U.S.

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This story was originally published by HuffPost and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

The United States already warmed on average 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit over the past century and will warm at least 3 more degrees by 2100 unless fossil fuel use is dramatically curtailed, scientists from more than a dozen federal agencies concluded in their latest in-depth assessment.

The 13-agency consensus, authored by more than 300 researchers, found in the second volume of the Fourth National Climate Assessment makes it clear the world is barreling toward catastrophic — perhaps irreversible — climate change. The report concluded that warming “could increase by 9°F (5°C) or more by the end of this century” without significant emissions reductions.

“Observations of global average temperature provide clear and compelling evidence the global average temperature is much higher and is rising more rapidly than anything modern civilization has experienced,” said David Easterling, chief of the scientific services division at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina. “This warming trend can only be explained by human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.”

It’s the sort of staggering reality the Trump administration seems eager to minimize. Ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, Trump antagonized climate scientists by tweeting, once again, that he believes cold weather disproves long-term trends of a warming climate.

“Brutal and Extended Cold Blast could shatter ALL RECORDS – Whatever happened to Global Warming?” he posted Wednesday on Twitter.

That the White House opted to release the long-awaited update on climate change ― which Congress mandates the administration provide every four years — on Black Friday, a popular shopping holiday the day after the Thanksgiving holiday, indicates it wanted fewer people to see the news about the findings. Monica Allen, a spokeswoman for NOAA, repeatedly pushed back against questions about when the White House decided to move up the release of the report.

“The decision was made in the last week or so,” she said. “Please, I ask you to focus on the content of the report. The substance.”

The report adds to an ever-growing, all-but-irrefutable body of scientific research that shows climate change is real and driven by human carbon emissions ― a reality that President Donald Trump and his team refuse to accept as they pursue a fossil fuel-focused, “energy dominance” agenda.

Last year, the U.S. Global Change Research Program released a special report ― the first volume of the Fourth National Climate Assessment ― that found Earth has entered the warmest period “in the history of modern civilization,” with global average air temperatures having increased by 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit over the last 115 years. And in October, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the leading United Nations consortium of researchers studying human-caused climate change, issued a report warning world governments must cut global emissions in half over the next 12 years to avoid warming of 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit, beyond which climate change is forecast to cause a cataclysmic $54 trillion in damages.

A series of devastating natural disasters, worsened by rising temperatures, made those findings tangible. In October, Typhoon Yutu, the most powerful storm all year, struck the Northern Mariana Islands, plunging the U.S. territory into chaos just a year after Hurricane Maria left thousands dead in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. California, meanwhile, is suffering its deadliest and most destructive wildfire on record during what was once the state’s rainy season.

Last year was the United States’ second-hottest in history, and the costliest in terms of climate-related disasters, with a record $306 billion in damages. Sixteen of the last 17 years have been the warmest on record globally.

In January, the Trump administration unveiled a proposal to open nearly all U.S. waters to oil and gas development. It has since worked to roll back safeguards adopted after the catastrophic 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. In October, the Department of the Interior approved the development of the first oil production facility in Arctic waters off Alaska, but the company behind the project has since had to extend its construction timeline due to dwindling sea ice brought on by Arctic warming, as NPR reported.

The latest findings are likely to bolster the growing protests and legal battles over climate change. Over the past two weeks, activists in the United States and United Kingdom staged major demonstrations. In Washington, youth activists with the climate justice group Sunrise Movement stormed Democratic leaders’ offices demanding support for the so-called Green New Deal, the only policy to emerge in the American political mainstream that comes close to the scale of economic change needed to make a serious dent in national emissions. British activists stopped traffic this week as part of the so-called Extinction Rebellion.

The assessment could have weight in some critical court cases. The Supreme Court is considering a landmark suit brought by 21 plaintiffs between the ages of 11 and 22, who accuse the federal government of violating their civil rights to a safe climate by pursuing fossil fuel-focused energy policies. And various states and cities are suing big oil companies over climate damages, a number that could grow since Democrats scored victories in a number of attorney general seats in the midterm elections.

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As Trump questions warming, climate report warns of dire risks to U.S.

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The Perfect Theory – Pedro G. Ferreira

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The Perfect Theory

A Century of Geniuses and the Battle over General Relativity

Pedro G. Ferreira

Genre: Physics

Price: $1.99

Publish Date: February 4, 2014

Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

Seller: OpenRoad Integrated Media, LLC


“One of the best popular accounts of how Einstein and his followers have been trying to explain the universe for decades ” ( Kirkus Reviews , starred review).   Physicists have been exploring, debating, and questioning the general theory of relativity ever since Albert Einstein first presented it in 1915. This has driven their work to unveil the universe’s surprising secrets even further, and many believe more wonders remain hidden within the theory’s tangle of equations, waiting to be exposed. In this sweeping narrative of science and culture, an astrophysicist brings general relativity to life through the story of the brilliant physicists, mathematicians, and astronomers who have taken up its challenge. For these scientists, the theory has been both a treasure trove and an enigma.   Einstein’s theory, which explains the relationships among gravity, space, and time, is possibly the most perfect intellectual achievement of modern physics—yet studying it has always been a controversial endeavor. Relativists were the target of persecution in Hitler’s Germany, hounded in Stalin’s Russia, and disdained in 1950s America. Even today, PhD students are warned that specializing in general relativity will make them unemployable.   Still, general relativity has flourished, delivering key insights into our understanding of the origin of time and the evolution of all the stars and galaxies in the cosmos. Its adherents have revealed what lies at the farthest reaches of the universe, shed light on the smallest scales of existence, and explained how the fabric of reality emerges. Dark matter, dark energy, black holes, and string theory are all progeny of Einstein’s theory.   In the midst of a momentous transformation in modern physics, as scientists look farther and more clearly into space than ever before, The Perfect Theory exposes the greater relevance of general relativity, showing us where it started, where it has led—and where it can still take us.  

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The Perfect Theory – Pedro G. Ferreira

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Surge in marine refuges brings world close to protected areas goal

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This story was originally published by The Guardian and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

A record surge in the creation of marine protected areas has taken the international community close to its goal of creating nature refuges on 17 percent of the world’s land and 10 percent of seas by 2020, according to a new U.N. report.

Protected regions now cover more than five times the territory of the U.S., but the authors said this good news was often undermined by poor enforcement. Some reserves are little more than “paper parks” with little value to nature conservation. At least one has been turned into an industrial zone.

More than 27 million square kilometers of seas (10.4 million square miles, and 7 percent of the total) and 20 million square km of land (7.7 million square miles, or 15 percent of the total) now have protected status, according to the Protected Planet report, which was released on Sunday at the U.N. biodiversity conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.

Almost all of the growth has been in marine regions, most notably with the creation last year of the world’s biggest protected area: the 2 million square kilometer (almost 800,000 square miles) Ross Sea reserve, one-fifth of which is in the Antarctic. The no-fishing zone will be managed by New Zealand and the U.S.

“We have seen an enormous expansion in the past two years. There is now more marine protected area than terrestrial, which nobody would have predicted,” said Kathy McKinnon of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. “I think we’ll continue to see a substantial increase, I’d guess, to at least 10 percent in the near future.”

The U.N. convention on biological diversity says it has received national commitments for an additional 4.5 million square kilometers of land and 16 million square km of oceans to be given protected status in the next two years. This would put it on course to achieve one of the key aims of the 2010 Aichi biodiversity targets.

“This is the target with the most progress. In an ocean of bad news about biodiversity loss and eco-destruction, it is important to highlight that progress, though we still have a lot more to do to ensure not just the quantitive target but the effectiveness of the management,” said Cristiana Pașca Palmer, the head of U.N. Biodiversity.

The creation of protected areas has not been enough to halt a collapse of species and ecosystems that threatens civilization. Since 1970 humanity has wiped out 60 percent of mammal, bird, fish, and reptile populations, with a dangerous knock-on impact on food production, fisheries, and climate stability.

Protected areas are important refuges from this wave of extinctions but many are underfunded and poorly policed. Only one in five have provided management assessments to the U.N., which has raised questions about the viability of the rest.

Naomi Kingston, of U.N. environment world conservation monitoring center, said: “There is a race to deliver on Aichi target 11. It is fantastic that countries are coming with more ambition, but not if it is just a number without substance.

“Some areas that have been reported to us as protected areas have been completely built over. We need datasets to define which areas are paper parks and which are real.”

Developing nations have better reporting standards because many are obliged to provide regular assessments in order to qualify for funds from the Global Environment Fund. By contrast, many wealthier nations devote few resources to monitoring.

Discussions will focus on a new, more flexible category for community land that is used by locals for both agricultural production and wildlife conservation. In Africa, Asia, and Latin America, this is a model that has often helped improve biodiversity because residents – often from indigenous communities – live closely with nature and have an interest in protecting it.

For example in Namibia, the area designated as protected was doubled through the recognition of community conservancies as part of the national protected areas estate. Kingston said the biodiversity of the region also improved.

“It’s a real success story that shows how a government working with the community can deliver on conservation, governance and equity,” she said. “We need to move the narrative away from designating areas and then putting a fence around them, and to instead work more with communities who have been protecting wildlife for generations.”

There are still considerable problems, including communication weaknesses, dubious classification and national competition for ever scarcer resources. China does not share maps of its protected areas and will not allow the other data it submits to be used publicly. The U.K. has publicly committed to a goal of classifying 30 percent of oceans as protected, but some of the marine conservation zones in its own waters provide very limited protection for biodiversity. Britain has also approved fracking in a national park, contrary to IUCN guidelines that extractive activities are incompatible.

China, Russia, and Norway also caused disappointment and anger this year by blocking plans to create a huge new reserve in the Antarctic that would have been a sanctuary for whales and other species.

To keep up with shifts in designations, the U.N. and its partners have launched a live report that tracks changes in protected areas and land use. In future, they hope to overlap this map with satellite images and data on land use to measure how well conserved the areas are.

Regardless of their effectiveness, conservation experts say halting the decline of the natural world needs not just protection but a rethink of what it means to coexist with other species.

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Surge in marine refuges brings world close to protected areas goal

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Candy wrappers, floss, tampons: The secret ingredients of sewer-clogging fatbergs

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This story was originally published by Atlas Obscura and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

Wherever they’re found, fatbergs — giant mounds of fats, oils, and debris that accumulate in sewers — have many things in common. Stinky, sprawling, subterranean, they start small, then get bigger and bigger, and sometimes grow to gargantuan proportions, occasionally surpassing a double-decker bus or even an airliner in size. They tend to lurk, unnoticed, until they claim so much of a pipe that wastewater can hardly flow past them. Then, they’re investigated and hauled to the surface bit by bit, where they elicit fascination and no small measure of nausea.

They also usually form in the same ways. “Saponified solids are the major pathways to these hardened deposits,” says Joel Ducoste, an environmental engineer at North Carolina State University who studies underground accumulations of fats, oils, and grease (otherwise known as “FOG”). “You’ve got reactions with calcium that can come from the background wastewater, or from corrosion of concrete-like materials that releases calcium and reacts with fat and grease that has broken down to release saturated and unsaturated fatty acids,” Ducoste says. These deposits build up on the sides of the pipes, like plaque narrowing an artery.

The clogs appear all over the world, wherever fats and oils go down the drain, wherever people bathe, wherever we flush things that ought to go in the trash. Cities have been battling gunked-up pipes ever since they began to snake beneath the streets. In the United States, the first patent for a grease trap to intercept sewer-clogging slurries was issued in 1884. More recently, Melbourne, Belfast, and Tokyo have all battled fatbergs, and many metropolitan areas have devoted substantial funds to the fight. Fort Wayne, Indiana, has spent up to half a million dollars annually in the war against fatbergs; in New York City, it was $18 million over five years, Smithsonian has reported.

Left alone, most fatbergs will simply grow and grow, but they’re not all the same. Each wet mass of grease and garbage is putrid in its own way. “The size, the color, and the amount of debris intertwined into it might vary from place to place,” Ducoste says. Atlas Obscura dug into the composition of three recent examples around the globe, and what they say about the cities and people that created them.

London

For most onlookers, the Whitechapel fatberg — a 140-ton tangle plugging up London’s sewers in 2017 — probably didn’t evoke a calm bath. But when Raffaella Villa, an applied microbiologist at England’s Cranfield University, laid eyes on it, the mass reminded her of the gummy mess that builds up around the edge of a tub when her son takes a nice long soak. “When you drain the water out, you find what we call scum, which is basically your soluble soap turning into insoluble soap,” says Villa, who has studied fatbergs for a decade. When she and her collaborators analyzed a 2.2-pound sample of the fatberg for the Museum of London, which recently displayed a desiccated, beige slab from the behemoth, Villa discovered that a similar process was taking place inside the sewer. In London’s case, she found, the saponification was helped along by the city’s calcium-rich hard water.

A quick glance at the chunk reveals candy wrappers, wet wipes, and pieces of plastic ensnared in its sticky matrix, along with few little flies and worms. Though the experience was unsavory, Villa was almost pleasantly surprised. She had expected to find even more trash, though, she says, “I was very shocked about the number of wipes.”

To learn more, Villa’s team dried their chunk of the fatberg at 105 degrees C (221 degrees F) to determine the water content. It then went into a furnace cranked up to 550 degrees C (1022 degrees F) so the team could measure the ash and grit in it. Then researchers used gas chromatography to look for the specific fatty acids that mingled in the blob.

They found that 53 percent of the fatty acids were palmitic acids — a type of unsaturated fat found in palm oil and olive oil, plus dairy products such as butter, milk, and cheese. These acids also show up in dishwashing liquids and cosmetics. Villa’s team also observed oleic acid, found in olive oil and almond oil, as well as soaps and plasticizers, plus myristic acid (found in coconut oil, nutmeg, soaps, and cosmetics), stearic acid (a component of cocoa butter and shea butter, plus laundry and dishwashing liquids), palmitoleic acid (commonly found in macadamia oil and lubricants), and linoleic acid, which is used much like oleic acid.

Heavy metals from car exhaust and petroleum showed up in the sample, too. “Our sewers are combined sewers, so you’ve got anything coming from roads, not just materials or wastewater coming from kitchens,” Villa explains.

She suspects that the Whitechapel fatberg probably accumulated over the course of 10 years or so, but it’s hard to say for sure — and it’s difficult to determine what built up when. Unlike packed sediment or the rings of a tree, fatbergs don’t seem to accumulate as a time series — at least they really don’t appear so once they’re removed. They actually begin on the sides of the pipes, Villa says, not on the bottom, where water courses through. “When it’s removed and cleaned, you lose that information because of the combination of hand-shoveling and jet cleaning,” she adds. There’s little spatial organization by the end.

Other teams of researchers are doing more in-depth work on the invertebrates that occupied the sample, as well as the bacterial colonies that bloom on fatbergs. The hope is that researchers can isolate these microbes, then strategically harness them to break down stubborn clogs, in a process called bioaddition or bioremediation. Meanwhile, teams studying the numerous other fatbergs that have blockaded London’s underground guts recently detected traces of cocaine, MDMA, and acids found in anti-acne creams.

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Charleston, South Carolina

In mid-October, workers at a wastewater treatment plant near Charleston began to notice that the water levels were rising fast. They suspected a blockage, and expected the culprit to be a mass of waterlogged wipes. To be sure — and to get it out — they dispatched a team of divers.

A three-person crew pulled on steel-toe boots, three pairs of gloves, and full-body suits (including metal helmets with sealed oxygen hoses), and rode a cage 80 feet down into the wet well, or holding tank. There, they felt their way through raw sewage. “You can’t send a camera down, because there’s zero visibility no matter how much light you bring down; it’s filled with particulate matter,” says Mike Saia, communications manager at the Charleston Water System. This diving company has been inspecting the area’s pipes for at least two decades. Saia says the divers know the topography by touch. They stuffed the cage full of the fetid stuff, and then returned to the surface. “Those people really are heroes,” he says.

Over the course of three dives, the team extracted a mass roughly three feet wide, 12 feet long, and weighing several thousand pounds. Up on solid ground, it looked like a shaggy, waterlogged puppet, or a bloated ghillie suit. The beast was dark gray, almost black. “People assume it would be brown, for obvious reasons,” Saia says, “but only a small amount of this water comes from the toilet.” The rest comes from showers, sinks, and washing machines, whose discharges are a subtler gray.

The blob included plastic shopping bags, potato chip bags, tampons, and paper, as well as dental floss — which is “a wonderful binding agent,” Saia points out. The team also found a slew of the wipes they were expecting. “Fat definitely binds to wipes, because that’s what wipes were designed to do,” Saia says.

Sewers are acidic places. Over time, that acid begins to corrode the concrete of the pipes — and many things can then catch on the rough surfaces this creates. “We believe that a wipe mass began to snag on something, and grew and grew in size until it was ultimately pushed through like a slug through the system,” Saia says.

The pipes choked by this fatberg are a half-century old, Saia says, and slated for replacement in 2019. In the meantime, the team won’t glean any more information about the beast that they slayed — it’s been dried out and buried in a landfill.

Singapore

Singapore’s clogs are numerous — the national water agency, PUB, told Channel News Asia that they respond to 36 “choke” cases a month — but they’re also smaller and easier to vanquish. Often, high-power water jets or a single rod and fishing net are enough to dislodge them. Sometimes, the pipes are also scoured with a kind of a squeegee.

The agency estimated that between January 2015 and June 2017, nearly three quarters of the clogs occurred because people were introducing grease and rags into sinks and gutters. “We always try to educate the public not to treat the sewage system like a dustbin although it may seem convenient,” Chiew Choon Peng, senior principal engineer from the water reclamation department, told Channel News Asia.

The message is often ignored. In October 2017, the agency cleared hardened grease from beneath a street lined with restaurants. In addition to the grease, the workers removed packs of cigarettes, condoms, menstrual pads, plastic cutlery, mop heads, and mounds of paper towels from a phlegm-colored mass.

Overall, Singapore’s sewers are in the midst of a renovation. Since 1996, inspectors have been peering into the agency’s 2,175 miles of public sewers to improve flow and repair components that contribute to “chokes, leaks, and structural failure.” Instead of hacking up sidewalks, the agency is trying out less-invasive tactics, including threading slick new pipes inside of old ones. The nearly 30-year project is expected to wrap in 2024.

Fatberg ingredients vary from city to city, and perhaps even from street to street. “The composition might differ if I sample in Chinatown versus another place,” Villa says, “maybe because the food is different, and the diet is different.” One kind of cooking oil would leave behind a different signature than another, and the grease from chicken is different than the grease from beef. But anything that is flushed or dumped might glom on to the fatberg. “Whatever gets caught in that solid matrix becomes part of it if it doesn’t get washed away,” Ducoste says.

All across the world, the recipe for preventing fatbergs is the same. “Everybody has to work hard on the three pillars — maintenance, technology, and education — in order to combat this in a meaningful way,” Ducoste says. This entails upkeep on grease interceptors, and maybe even replacing existing sewer pipes with ones made from different materials that are less likely to leach calcium and provide snag points. And, of course, it requires residents to curb the habit of putting things down the pipes — no grease, no wipes, no floss. Nothing that feeds the fatberg.

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Candy wrappers, floss, tampons: The secret ingredients of sewer-clogging fatbergs

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Another El Niño is nearly upon us. What does that mean?

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A new El Niño is brewing in the tropical Pacific, threatening an uptick in global temperatures and extreme weather.

Scientists around the world have been tracking the looming El Niño — the warm phase of a normal three to five year global weather cyclesince at least May, watching the warming waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean for telltale signs that a large-scale shift in winds and weather patterns has set in.

On Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said that water temperatures have now crossed El Niño thresholds, and a full-scale El Niño is likely to start sometime in December. U.S. forecasters place a 90 percent chance of El Niño to form by January.

The last El Niño, peaking in late 2015, was the strongest ever recorded. Rainfall patterns shifted worldwide, causing enormous fires in Indonesia, spurring the largest coral bleaching episode in history, and impacting more than 60 million people worldwide. The coming El Niño isn’t expected to be as severe as 2015’s, but will likely have serious consequences nonetheless.

In response to the news, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization issued a report listing several countries at high risk of food shortages. Food crises could worsen or erupt in Pakistan, Kenya, Guatemala, Honduras, Venezuela, Mozambique, and the Philippines, according to the report. In the U.S., El Niño often brings torrential rains to California. It can also boost East Coast snowstorms, which, in an era of sea-level rise, now routinely cause serious flooding.

Since El Niño also works to warm the atmosphere, it’s possible that 2019 could beat 2016 as the warmest year on record. As El Niño begins to set in, both October and November have been unusually warm globally, and that trend is likely to continue, according to Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at University of California-Berkeley. “It’s not a safe bet 2019 will beat 2016, but it will very likely be warmer than 2018,” Hausfather told me.

There’s a growing body of evidence that suggests global warming is pushing the Pacific towards more extreme El Niños, with amplified effects around the world like 2015’s massive wildfires — another example of a vicious feedback cycle in a changing climate. Not only is El Niño making weather worse; it’s doing it at an ever-faster rate.

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Another El Niño is nearly upon us. What does that mean?

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California wildfire smoke spreads to New York, 3,000 miles away

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This story was originally published by The Guardian and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

The U.S. East Coast has been provided a firsthand reminder of the deadly California wildfires after smoke swept across the country and caused a haze to envelop the eastern seaboard, including Washington, D.C. and New York City.

Hazy skies were reported in several places on the East Coast from smoke wafting from 3,000 miles farther west, where wildfires in California have killed more than 80 people and razed more than 15,000 homes and other structures.

An unusually dense fog shrouded the top of New York City skyscrapers and the sunset was particularly intense due to the smoke particles in the air. “Wow. I knew tonight’s sunset over New York City seemed different, and I should’ve realized,” tweeted Kathryn Prociv, a meteorologist on the Today Show. “Wildfire smoke is in the air, all the way from California.”

Donald Trump visited the areas affected last weekend and created controversy by refusing to acknowledge climate change as a major factor, getting the name of the incinerated town of Paradise wrong, once again blaming forest management, and arguing for leaf-raking as a key factor in prevention.

Early on Wednesday morning, the former California governor and actor Arnold Schwarzenegger made a surprise visit to firefighters, who have been working exhaustingly long shifts in extremely dangerous, unpredictable conditions.

He served breakfast to officers who have been battling the Camp Fire in Northern California, and criticized Trump for jumping to blame the fires on forest management.

Schwarzenegger, who was California governor from 2003 to 2011, said he was in Hungary when he heard Paradise had been destroyed, and wanted to visit firefighters to show his appreciation for their efforts while they risked their lives.

Satellite imagery released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed a band of smoke curling up from Southern California to Massachusetts. While the diffused smoke can be hard to distinguish from other pollution, it makes a telltale appearance at sunrise and sunset.

The smoke is moving fairly high in the atmosphere but can exacerbate health problems if it settles – D.C.’s air quality was classed as only “moderate” on Tuesday.

This smoky pall is still nothing compared with the situation on the West Coast, where there have been shortages of protective masks in some places. Schools and sporting events have been shut down due to the dire air quality, although San Francisco’s famed tram network has now reopened. The air is expected to improve this week, with rain forecast for Wednesday.

The Camp Fire in Northern California is the deadliest blaze in the state’s history, with 81 confirmed deaths and nearly 700 people still unaccounted for since it broke out earlier this month, with the cause yet to be determined. The fire obliterated almost all of Paradise, a small town close to the Sierra Nevada, and displaced more than 50,000 people. A smaller blaze near Los Angeles has caused three deaths and is now largely contained, but still prompted some dramatic rescues of those stranded by the flames and smoke.

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California wildfire smoke spreads to New York, 3,000 miles away

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More trouble in Paradise: Camp Fire region braces for floods and mudslides

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Northern California faces a new threat in the aftermath of the disastrous Camp Fire: Weather forecasters are growing more confident that downpours, which could bring flash floods and mudslides, are headed for the fragile, scorched terrain.

On Monday night, the National Weather Service issued flash-flood watches for recent burn areas, in preparation for a series of heavy rainfall events arriving between Wednesday and Friday.

The forecast prompted an escalation of ongoing search and recovery efforts in Paradise, with fears that the rains could wash away the remains of fire victims, reducing the chances of families of the hundreds of residents still listed as missing finding closure.

Kory Honea, the sheriff of Butte County, told the Associated Press that the looming rains means that it’s within the “realm of possibility” that officials might never be able to determine the fire’s exact death toll.

As of Tuesday afternoon, at least 79 people are known to have died, 699 are still unaccounted for, and more than 40,000 displaced. The Camp Fire is already one of the deadliest U.S. disasters of any kind in the 21st century. It is the deadliest U.S. fire in 100 years, and the sixth-deadliest worldwide in that same timespan, according to numbers compiled by meteorologist Jeff Masters. The 17,148 buildings destroyed in and around the town of Paradise are nearly equal to all those lost in each of the other top-10 most destructive fires in California history, combined.

Current forecasts call for as much as six inches of rain near Paradise — about as much as the region gets in an average November — arriving in the span of just a few days. That kind of a deluge would not only frustrate recovery efforts, but it could also spawn mudslides and flash floods by turning the newly barren soil into a roiling, debris-filled torrent. That the still-burning fire that started this whole mess could be extinguished in the process is almost an afterthought.

Survivors’ stories are still emerging two weeks after a wall of flames burned through Paradise in mere hours. While the cause of the fire is yet to be officially determined, it’s nearly certain that climate change played a crucial role in how quickly it grew and spread.

It’s worth noting that climate change is likely playing a role in intensifying heavy rainfall in California, too. More rain can fall in a shorter period of time in a warmer atmosphere that’s becoming more efficient at evaporation. In California, most heavy rainstorms, including those in the forecast this week, come via such atmospheric rivers — tropical conveyor belts of moisture streaming directly ashore — and these are growing wider and more intense as the planet heats up.

The fact that two of the extremes of climate change — drier and hotter droughts, and wetter and wider floods — are manifesting as part of the same disaster is a sign of the urgency of the crisis. The Camp Fire is the latest example of the compound, complex tragedy of climate change.

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More trouble in Paradise: Camp Fire region braces for floods and mudslides

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Who’s in Charge? – Michael S. Gazzaniga

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Who’s in Charge?

Free Will and the Science of the Brain

Michael S. Gazzaniga

Genre: Life Sciences

Price: $1.99

Publish Date: November 15, 2011

Publisher: Ecco

Seller: HARPERCOLLINS PUBLISHERS


“Big questions are Gazzaniga’s stock in trade.” —New York Times “Gazzaniga is one of the most brilliant experimental neuroscientists in the world.” —Tom Wolfe “Gazzaniga stands as a giant among neuroscientists, for both the quality of his research and his ability to communicate it to a general public with infectious enthusiasm.” —Robert Bazell, Chief Science Correspondent, NBC News The author of Human, Michael S. Gazzaniga has been called the “father of cognitive neuroscience.” In his remarkable book, Who’s in Charge?, he makes a powerful and provocative argument that counters the common wisdom that our lives are wholly determined by physical processes we cannot control. His well-reasoned case against the idea that we live in a “determined” world is fascinating and liberating, solidifying his place among the likes of Oliver Sacks, Antonio Damasio, V.S. Ramachandran, and other bestselling science authors exploring the mysteries of the human brain.

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Who’s in Charge? – Michael S. Gazzaniga

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Why We Dream – Alice Robb

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Why We Dream

The Transformative Power of Our Nightly Journey

Alice Robb

Genre: Life Sciences

Price: $14.99

Publish Date: November 20, 2018

Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

Seller: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company


A fresh, revelatory foray into the new science of dreams—how they work, what they’re for, and how we can reap the benefits of our own nocturnal life While on a research trip in Peru, science journalist Alice Robb became hooked on lucid dreaming—the uncanny phenomenon in which a sleeping person can realize that they’re dreaming and even control the dreamed experience. Finding these forays both puzzling and exhilarating, Robb dug deeper into the science of dreams at an extremely opportune moment: just as researchers began to understand why dreams exist. They aren’t just random events; they have clear purposes. They help us learn and even overcome psychic trauma. Robb draws on fresh and forgotten research, as well as her experience and that of other dream experts, to show why dreams are vital to our emotional and physical health. She explains how we can remember our dreams better—and why we should. She traces the intricate links between dreaming and creativity, and even offers advice on how we can relish the intense adventure of lucid dreaming for ourselves. Why We Dream is a clear-eyed, cutting-edge examination of the meaning and purpose of our nightly visions and a guide to changing our dream lives—and making our waking lives richer, healthier, and happier.

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Why We Dream – Alice Robb

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The Nature Instinct – Tristan Gooley

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The Nature Instinct

Relearning Our Lost Intuition for the Inner Workings of the Natural World

Tristan Gooley

Genre: Nature

Price: $10.99

Publish Date: November 20, 2018

Publisher: The Experiment

Seller: Workman Publishing Co., Inc.


The culmination of everything Tristan Gooley has written so far: How to take your knowledge about the outdoors—and make it second nature Readers of master outdoorsman Tristan Gooley have learned that the world is filled with clues to look for—we can use the Big Dipper to tell time, for example, and a budding flower to find south. But what about the innate survival instincts that told Gooley to move on one night, just as he was about to make camp? Everything looked perfect, but something felt wrong. When Gooley returned to his abandoned campsite to search for clues, there they were: All of the tree trunks were slightly bent. The ground had already shifted once in a storm—and could easily shift again, becoming treacherous in heavy rain. The Nature Instinct shows us how Gooley and other expert observers—from hunters in the English countryside to the Pygmy people in the Congo—have recovered and rekindled this lost “sixth sense;” a subconscious,deeper understanding of our surroundings. By training ourselves through slow, careful observation, we too can unlock this kind of intuition—for finding the forest’s edge when deep in the woods, or knowing when a wild animal might pose danger—without even having to stop to think about it.

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The Nature Instinct – Tristan Gooley

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