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Last year was the fourth hottest on record, or maybe the seventh

Last year was the fourth hottest on record, or maybe the seventh

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Our extreme-weather-wearied planet fell short in 2013 of breaking the record for hottest year in modern civilization, but it came close. Last year was either the fourth hottest since record-keeping began, or the seventh, depending on which U.S. agency’s data you most trust.

At the surface of the seas and everywhere else around the world, last year was an average of 1.12 degrees F warmer than the 20th century average, NOAA concluded. That made 2013 the 37th year in a row with above-average global temperatures, according to NOAA’s calculations.

NASA performed its own analysis, concluding that 2013 tied 2006 and 2009 as the seventh warmest year since 1880.

Weather.com explains that the discrepancy between the two agencies’ findings is no big deal:

Despite the gap between the two rankings — due to NASA’s “processing [temperature data] slightly differently than NOAA” in areas like the Arctic and Antarctica, NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt said in a conference call — there’s actually little difference between them.

NASA and NOAA certainly agree that nearly all of the hottest years on record have occurred since the dawn of the new millennium. Notice that only one of the 10 warmest years does not start with the digits “2″ and “0,” according to NOAA:

NOAA

Click to embiggen.

With such a clear warming trend, it’s little wonder that climate skeptics are shifting from straight-out denialism to claiming that climate change is no big deal.

“If serious warming happens, we can adjust,” writes John Stossel in a typically unscientific column in the conservative Washington Examiner. “It will be easier to adjust if America is not broke after wasting our resources on trendy gimmicks like windmills.”


Source
Global Analysis – Annual 2013, NOAA
2013 Temperature Anomoly, NASA

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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The War Over Austerity Is Over. Republicans Won.

Mother Jones

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The main thing you need to know about today’s budget agreement is that it’s very modest. It repeals a little bit of the sequester cuts, and pays for it with a few small cuts in entitlements and some even smaller increases in user fees. Overall, the numbers are tiny enough that it’s hard to see how anyone can get either too excited or too outraged over it.

Needless to say, this hasn’t stopped the usual suspects (Heritage, Club for Growth, various tea party groups) from acting as though it represents the end of Western civilization. But they’ve overplayed their hands this time, and GOP leaders in the House have apparently had enough of these clowns. Both John Boehner and Eric Cantor essentially told them to piss off, and I suspect that this agreement is going to get a lot of Republican votes. I’ll predict at least 150 Republican votes in the House, maybe more. The tea party rump is truly going to be a rump this time.

That said, it was interesting reading the reaction of conservative wonk-star Yuval Levin to the deal:

This deal would amount to the Democrats accepting the implications of their misjudgment in abiding the Budget Control Act in 2011….It doesn’t much change the terms reached in the original Budget Control Act and sequester deal, and essentially cements the Democrats’ loss and miscalculation in that deal.

The Democrats’ hope, given that they control both the White House and the Senate, was to replace the sequester with some combination of tax increases and more palatable spending cuts….That the Democrats would accept a deal like this is a pretty striking indication of how the Republican House has changed the conversation on the spending front since 2010. Think of it this way: In their first budget after re-taking the majority—the FY 2012 Ryan budget, passed in 2011—the House Republicans wanted discretionary spending to be $1.039 trillion in 2014 and $1.047 trillion in 2015. These budgets were of course described by the Democrats and the political press (but I repeat myself) as some reversion to humanity’s barbaric past. Yet this proposed deal with the Democrats would put discretionary spending at $1.012 trillion in 2014 and $1.014 trillion in 2015—in both cases below that first House Republican budget.

To some extent, Levin is probably overstating his case in order to nudge conservatives on board a deal he thinks is palatable—and away from yet another round of government shutdowns, which he correctly views as disastrous for Republicans. Still, he’s basically right: Democrats originally believed the sequester would never happen. Either the supercommittee would replace it, or else Republicans would eventually cave in because they couldn’t tolerate the defense cuts. But that turned out not to be true. They aren’t happy with the defense cuts, but in the end, to the surprise of Democrats, they’ve decided they can live with them.

The ultimate result, as Levin says correctly, is a budget that’s below even the pipe-dream Ryan budget of 2011. I’d make a bit less of this than Levin, since Ryan’s budgets have always backloaded their cuts, but it’s still pretty remarkable. Two years ago, Ryan’s budget was basically at the outer limit of mainstream conservative wish lists. Today it looks tame.

Quibbles aside, Levin is right: Republicans have massively changed the spending conversation since 2010. Austerity has won.

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The War Over Austerity Is Over. Republicans Won.

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DonorsTrust—the Right’s Dark-Money ATM—Pumps Out Record $96 Million

Mother Jones

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DonorsTrust is the conservative movement’s little-known but hugely influential cash machine, a conduit for millions of dollars in anonymous donations to anti-union legal shops, climate change deniers, pro-life advocates, libertarian think tanks, media watchdog groups, and a panoply of other right-leaning causes. Wealthy conservatives use DonorsTrust as a surefire way to invest their money, fingerprint-free, with the assurance it will end up in the right hands. According to new tax filings obtained by Mother Jones, DonorsTrust is growing increasingly popular among the bankrollers of the conservative movement.

Last year, DonorsTrust (and its sister group, Donors Capital Fund) doled out a record $96 million, making it one of the largest honeypots for right-leaning groups. That’s an increase from $85 million in 2011 and $78 million in 2010. DonorsTrust CEO Whitney Ball, who cofounded the group in 1999 and sometimes appears at the Koch brothers’ donor summits, says the increased giving stems from her organization’s growing profile and also conservative donors’ anger at the Obama administration. And despite worries about donor burnout within the conservative ranks, Ball says DonorsTrust is on track for another great year in 2013.

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How the Bush v. Gore Decision Could Factor Into This Close Virginia Race

Mother Jones

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All the votes from the November 5 election have been tabulated and the attorney general race is as close as they come. Democrat Mark Herring holds a slim 164-vote lead over his Republican opponent, Mark Obenshain. The close count has teed up a likely recount for next month, and the Republican candidate has hinted at an unusual legal strategy: basing a lawsuit on Bush v. Gore, the controversial Supreme Court decision that ended the 2000 presidential election in George W. Bush’s favor.

The Supreme Court usually prides itself on respecting the past while keeping an eye toward future legal precedent. But the court treaded lightly when they intervened in 2000. The five conservative justices may have handed the election to Bush, but they tried to ensure that their decision would lack wider ramifications. “Our consideration is limited to the present circumstances,” read the majority opinion in Bush v. Gore, “for the problem of equal protection in election processes generally presents many complexities.” The conservative majority wanted to put a stop to the Florida recount, but they hoped their ruling—which extended the Fourteenth Amendment’s equal protection clause to argue that different standards cannot be used to count votes from different counties—wouldn’t set precedent in future cases.

For a time the justices got their wish. But the supposed one-time logic of the controversial decision has begun to gain acceptance in the legal community—particularly among campaign lawyers in contentious elections.

Virginia GOP attorney Miller Baker challenged the attorney general results on Bush v. Gore grounds last week during a meeting of the Fairfax County electoral board, claiming the rest of the state lacked equal protection thanks to the county’s method for tabulating votes. The problem stems from a swath of uncounted provisional ballots in the region. Obenshain had led Herring after initial election-night results, but the Democrat closed the gap thanks to some misplaced votes in a reliably blue section of Fairfax County, a DC suburb. The Republican-dominated state Board of Elections then demanded that Fairfax change its procedure for provisional ballots midway through counting. But even after the changes, Fairfax still afforded residents several extra days to advocate on provisional ballots compared to the rest of the state. (Other counties had until the Friday after the election, while Fairfax allowed votes to be counted until the following Tuesday.)

Obenshain issued a statement last week that left his options open and mentioned the need for “uniform rules,” which election law expert Rick Hasen interpreted as a sign that the Republican is gearing up for a lawsuit that would base its challenge on Bush v. Gore.

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How the Bush v. Gore Decision Could Factor Into This Close Virginia Race

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Obama Administration Pisses Off Ethanol Industry, Pleases Both Oil Industry and Environmentalists

Mother Jones

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This story first appeared on the Grist website and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

Here’s a riddle: When is the oil industry on the right side of a public policy fight? I know what you’re thinking: “Never.” But actually there is a potential exception: when their adversary is an equally selfish industrial complex.

On Friday, the EPA proposed to reduce the amount of biofuel required to be blended into gasoline to 15.2 billion gallons in 2014. That’s down from 16.55 billion gallons this year, and it is 14 percent lower than the goal Congress laid out in its 2007 expansion of the Renewable Fuel Standard program.

Powerful Midwestern agribusiness interests are not happy. But the oil industry is pleased—and so are environmentalists.

The EPA’s decision is a byproduct of good news: Americans are using less gasoline. If gas consumption were rising, it wouldn’t be hard to keep increasing the total amount of biofuels blended into the gas supply. But it turns out that U.S. gasoline consumption began a downward trend in 2007, thanks to shifts toward urban living, telecommuting, mass transit use, biking, and more efficient cars. So to keep up with rising biofuel requirements, refiners have had to increase the percentage of ethanol in gasoline. It’s currently at about 10 percent, which is considered by many to be the safe upper limit, or the “blend wall.” If the percentage goes any higher, it could damage cars currently on the road. The EPA disputes that, but car companies say their warranties won’t cover cars that use gasoline with 15 percent ethanol. Oil companies have been whining about the impracticality of the biofuel mandate and requesting relief.

The beneficiaries of the mandate are ethanol producers and corn growers, as corn ethanol is by far the most prevalent biofuel produced in the U.S. They benefit from consumers being forced to buy their product, especially since the inflated demand for corn drives up prices. So they are complaining about the EPA’s decision, attacking it as a setback for the environment and the renewable fuels industry. Here’s a typical quote, via Politico:

“EPA is proposing to place the nation’s renewable energy policy in the hands of the oil companies,” said Bob Dinneen, CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association, a major ethanol industry group. “That would be the death of innovation and evolution in our motor fuel markets, thus increasing consumer costs at the pump and the environmental cost of energy production.”

But don’t be fooled—there is nothing green about corn except the stalks. Corn-based ethanol is not reducing our carbon footprint. As Alex Rindler, policy associate at the Environmental Working Group, noted in a recent blog post, “An Environmental Protection Agency analysis showed that lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions from corn ethanol in 2012 were higher than from gasoline—and will be for years to come.”

Also, when you increase the price of corn, you cause farmers to fill in wetlands, cut down trees, and plant in sensitive areas. Sure enough, as the Associated Press reported last week, we are losing carbon sinks and increasing dangerous fertilizer runoff because of the ethanol mandate. The results are more net carbon emissions, more localized pollution, and more contamination of our waters. From the AP:

As farmers rushed to find new places to plant corn, they wiped out millions of acres of conservation land, destroyed habitat and polluted water supplies…

Five million acres of land set aside for conservation—more than Yellowstone, Everglades and Yosemite National Parks combined—have vanished on Obama’s watch…

Sprayers pumped out billions of pounds of fertilizer, some of which seeped into drinking water, contaminated rivers and worsened the huge dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico where marine life can’t survive…

The consequences are so severe that environmentalists and many scientists have now rejected corn-based ethanol as bad environmental policy.

Conservative organizations, such as the Competitive Enterprise Institute think tank, are praising the EPA’s decision while complaining that it does not go far enough. They would like to see the ethanol mandate eliminated altogether.

And they are right. The Renewable Fuel Standard is an example of good intentions gone awry. The American government already incentivizes environmentally irresponsible industrial agriculture through farm subsidies. We don’t need yet another program that distorts the free market, transfers wealth from everyday Americans to a handful of big corn growers, and contributes to land degradation, water pollution, and climate change.

Even if ethanol were marginally better for the environment than conventional gasoline, the ethanol mandate is based on a false premise. Better gasoline is not the solution to reducing CO2 emissions. Driving less, and driving more efficient cars, is the way forward. And Americans are already doing it. Instead of creating competing subsidies to undo the damage caused by our subsidies for gasoline and driving, we need to make cars pay their own social cost and put different transportation modes on an even playing field. That would be achieved through eliminating subsidies for oil in the tax code, raising taxes on gasoline consumption, and shifting transportation infrastructure investment toward biking, walking, and mass transit.

Conservatives and the oil industry will fight those reforms with all their considerable political power. But even a stopped clock is right twice a day, and conservatives are right about corn-based ethanol.

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Obama Administration Pisses Off Ethanol Industry, Pleases Both Oil Industry and Environmentalists

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VIDEO: David Corn on Why Chris Christie Has "Obama Cooties"

Mother Jones

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Mother Jones DC bureau chief David Corn spoke with MSNBC’s Martin Bashir and Joy Reid this week about why New Jersey governor Chris Christie is under fire from his own party despite his conservative credentials. Watch here:

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VIDEO: David Corn on Why Chris Christie Has "Obama Cooties"

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Fracking fights spread to Europe

Fracking fights spread to Europe

Sheila

Fracking protestors in Balcombe, England.

European leaders have been peering across the pond at the American fracking boom with envy, watching as the U.S. gives itself a powerful economic edge by trashing its environment to extract natural gas and oil. Now politicians and business leaders from England, Germany, and Holland to Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria have started to push “us too” energy policies.

But many European citizens are not so frack-happy. Some are taking to the streets in rage.

In England, furor has been centered in the bucolic West Sussex village of Balcombe, population 2,000, where a single drilling rig tapping an exploratory well has attracted an encampment of anti-fracking protestors. Dozens have been arrested, including a member of Parliament representing the Green Party. From The Washington Post:

The worries have not only rattled Balcombe’s many well-heeled residents, who have expressed their concerns with characteristic restraint — over tea, at parish council meetings and with knit-ins — but also brought out a louder army of environmental activists. They recently descended on this bucolic retreat wearing the mask of Guy Fawkes, the Briton who tried to blow up Parliament in 1605, shouting slogans and telling horror stories about the United States, where they believe fracking has caused earthquakes, water pollution and the rapid industrialization of areas that were formerly pristine. …

“It’s normally such a quiet road,” said Paula Magee, a 49-year-old from Balcombe who has stopped drinking local water for fear of the impact of drilling on the water supply. Nearly every day, she makes the half-mile trek from the village, down the normally quiet road, past the long line of police vans here to keep the peace, across the sea of colorful-if-tatty tents to the entrance of a 72-foot-tall drilling rig.

Not all Britons are opposed to fracking, but support seems as tepid as a forgotten cup of tea. The Post cites a YouGov poll that found 41 percent thought their country should frack its gas reserves, but only 25 percent thought it would be a good idea to frack in their own areas.

From The New York Times:

[Prime Minister David Cameron’s] vision of bountiful energy supplies from subterranean shale rock plays into the delicate politics of persuading his Conservative followers in the well-padded southeast of the country to accept his argument that, as he put it, “the huge benefits of shale gas outweigh any very minor changes to the landscape.”

And his advocacy of the new technology, which opponents say risks poisoning groundwater and damaging the environment in other ways, has provoked a collision of faith and economics. Clerics in the northwest — seen as an abundant source of shale gas — have called on congregants to answer to their God and “engage in biblical and theological discussion about their responsibility as stewards of the earth.”

German brewers, meanwhile, are warning that fracking could threaten the nation’s treasured libations. From a May story by Reuters:

Under the “Reinheitsgebot”, or German purity law, brewers have to produce beer using only malt, hops, yeast and water.

“The water has to be pure and more than half Germany’s brewers have their own wells which are situated outside areas that could be protected under the government’s current planned legislation on fracking,” said a Brauer-Bund [beer association] spokesman.

“You cannot be sure that the water won’t be polluted by chemicals so we have urged the government to carry out more research before it goes ahead with a fracking law,” he added.

Protests appear to have have been more muted in Eastern Europe, although some farmers have threatened to use Molotov cocktails against an Exxon operation. It might not be public opposition that kills fracking there, though — doubts are growing over whether the region can produce as much gas from its shale as had been promised, and oil companies are unhappy about red tape. From a July Bloomberg story:

[T]he prospect of a European shale revolution is in doubt before it has begun. Exxon said in June 2012 it was pulling out of Poland after its first wells produced disappointing results, which was followed by Talisman [Energy Inc.]. On May 7, Marathon Oil Corp. said it was quitting after failing to find commercially viable resources and it would seek to dispose of its 11 licenses. …

Deposits in Poland have turned out to be deeper and harder to exploit than those in the U.S. due to geology and poor roads to remote eastern regions. Estimated reserves in the European country were cut to 9 trillion cubic feet last year by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, from 44 trillion in 2011.

“Big companies like Shell and Chevron could become afraid to invest,” said Volodymyr Omelchenko, head of energy analysis at the Razumkov research group in Kiev and former director of shipments at Ukraine’s NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy. “Ukraine has an enormous potential but realization will be difficult because the legal system is governed by old Soviet traditions.”

Last week, one test well in Poland was reported to be producing a promising amount of natural gas, though still not enough for a commercial operation, Reuters reports.

France, in contrast, has said “non, merci” to fracking. “We have to have our eyes wide open about what is going on in the U.S.,” said French Environmental and Energy Minister Delphine Batho earlier this year. “The reality is that the cost of producing gas doesn’t take into account considerable environmental damage.”

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.Find this article interesting? Donate now to support our work.Read more: Business & Technology

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Climate change means more blizzards but less snow, which confuses people apparently

Climate change means more blizzards but less snow, which confuses people apparently

Watching the news last night, Diane Sawyer leaned into the camera with a what’ll-they-think-of-next expression on her face to introduce a story straight out of Ripley’s: Climate change may mean less snowfall but more blizzards. [record scratch sound effect] Say whaaaaat?

Philly.com ran the story with the headline, “Less snow, more blizzards makes sense to scientists.” Outlets that ran the Associated Press’ story used, “Climate contradiction: Less snow, more blizzards.” Now I’m not the smartest person in the world, I’ll grant you that, but I find it hard to believe that adult human beings who understand English and have experienced weather are having trouble with this concept.

A blizzard in Manhattan, if that makes sense.

The AP explains the idea:

A warmer atmosphere can hold, and dump, more moisture, snow experts say. And two soon-to-be-published studies demonstrate how there can be more giant blizzards yet less snow overall each year. Projections are that that’s likely to continue with manmade global warming. …

Ten climate scientists say the idea of less snow and more blizzards makes sense: A warmer world is likely to decrease the overall amount of snow falling each year and shrink the snow season. But when it is cold enough for a snowstorm to hit, the slightly warmer air is often carrying more moisture, producing potentially historic blizzards.

“Strong snowstorms thrive on the ragged edge of temperature — warm enough for the air to hold lots of moisture, meaning lots of precipitation, but just cold enough for it to fall as snow,” said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. “Increasingly, it seems that we’re on that ragged edge.”

Even beyond consideration of the “ragged edge” of weather conditions, the concept is not that complex. Consider last year’s drought. It was still a drought even if there was a thunderstorm on the Great Plains one day. Or consider, you know, your life experience. If your boss suggested that he would cut your pay in half but double the number of bonuses you receive — you wouldn’t be happy about that, but the mechanics of the proposal make sense to you. And you probably understand how that would result in your having less money over the long-term.

There are three reasons the story has been covered as it has, I suspect. The first is that there are probably people who don’t really understand the difference between a blizzard and a snowstorm. That’s fine.

The second is that playing up the contradiction is a hook for the media, a tease for readers and viewers who should actually be insulted at being patronized. Given how little coverage of climate change there has been over the past few years, it makes sense that people might need a bit of a ramp into a story about a specific component of the issue. But offering it as a “what’ll those wacky scientists think of next!” sort of story does a disservice to the scientists and the viewers and the media outlet. Two of those parties deserve better.

And the third reason it’s been covered like this: That’s how climate change deniers want it. Conservative websites ran far deeper with the apparent contradiction than the obvious science, as they do. Part of their tacit mission is, of course, to undermine climate science and scientists across the board. So they seized on a variant on the it’s-cold-so-what-about-global-warming response: It’s snowing, so what about that idea of less snow? Which is what makes Diane Sawyer’s aw-shucks treatment of the story so frustrating. It suggests that the concept is confusing — as well as the science. Adults can handle complexity, but they have real trouble with obfuscation.

After the climate story, Sawyer then reported on the hacking of Burger King’s Twitter account. That story didn’t faze Sawyer at all.

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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Duke Energy hires a congressman

Duke Energy hires a congressman

Duke Energy has a proud tradition of excellent staffing moves. So we must congratulate the company on its latest hire: a sitting congressman.

forallofus

Rep. Shuler.

From The Hill:

Retiring Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.) already has a new job lined up: he’ll be a top federal affairs official with North Carolina-based Duke Energy, the nation’s largest electric utility.

The Charlotte-based company, which has more than seven million customers and plenty of interests before regulators and Congress, announced Monday that Shuler will be senior vice president of federal affairs beginning in January.

The conservative Democrat won’t vote on any matters affecting Duke Energy for the remainder of his time in Congress, the company said in a statement that touted the hiring of the one-time Washington Redskins quarterback.

That’s the commitment to ethical integrity our Congress is known for: No voting on issues related to your future employer. Strictly verboten. Hard line in the sand.

Plus, he’ll have to wait an entire year before coming back to Capitol Hill.

A Duke spokesman, citing House ethics rules, said Shuler would not be “actively lobbying” for one year but could do so after that period. Shuler will be overseeing and determining how to strengthen Duke’s D.C. office, spokesman Tom Williams said.

Tip No. 1: Hire congressmembers.

According to Politico, at least one green is enthusiastic about Shuler’s move.

Kelly Martin of the Sierra Club North Carolina Campaign — a former Shuler aide [Ed. – From 2007 until last year] — praised her former boss as a “strong environmental champion.” “He voted to curb greenhouse gas emissions and repeatedly voted to support clean energy solutions, showing his leadership on curbing climate change and building a clean energy economy that protects human health and the environment,” she said.

Yes, I’m confident that Shuler and his 71 percent environmental voting record will turn the massive ship that is Duke Energy toward a greener tomorrow. He’ll likely be as successful at that as he was in the NFL.

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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