Tag Archives: economy

CHART: Welfare Reform Is Leaving More In Deep Poverty

Mother Jones

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The economy is picking up in some parts of the country, but that hasn’t translated into any new serious efforts to help those suffering the most hardship. In fact, for those on the lowest rung of the economic ladder, life may be getting even harder. A new report from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) looks at cash benefits provided under the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program, commonly known as “welfare.” It finds that the value of monthly cash benefits that make up the fragile safety net for the poorest families with children has continued to decline steadily since the program was “reformed” in 1996.

Back then, benefits weren’t exactly generous, but they did manage to keep a whole lot of kids out of really deep poverty. Today, those benefits are almost nonexistent. The lucky few who are able to get cash assistance aren’t getting enough to pay rent or keep the lights on in most states, and the value of the benefits has declined precipitously since 1996—even more so since the recession started. According to CBPP, there is not a state in the country whose welfare benefits are enough to lift a poor single mother with two kids above 50 percent of the poverty line, or about $9700 a year. In many southern states, TANF doesn’t provide enough money to get a poor family much above 10 percent of the poverty line. What’s especially troubling about these figures is that, as CBPP reports, TANF benefits are often the only form of cash assistance poor families receive. They may be getting food stamps, which definitely help their situations, but you can’t buy diapers or pay the rent with food stamps.

People like President Bill Clinton and then-Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich claimed they’d be doing welfare recipients a favor in the 1990s when they reformed the welfare program to impose work requirements and make it more difficult for people to get benefits. The idea was that welfare recipients were just lazy and that their government checks were keeping them from working, making them dependent on the government. When the reform legislation passed, with Clinton’s signature, some people in the administration quit in protest, arguing that cutting off cash assistance for poor families would push millions of children into poverty. That didn’t happen, at least not right away. But funding for the TANF block grant hasn’t increased since 1996, meaning that in real terms, what the country spends to help poor families in the program has fallen 30 percent overall since welfare was “reformed,” and benefit levels have fallen even more in some states that cut benefits after the financial crisis started in 2007. Not surprisingly, since 1996, the number of families with children living in extreme poverty—that is, on $2 a day or less—has gone up nearly 130 percent.

The US Census Bureau reports that the number of Americans suffering significant hardships, such as having utilities cut off, getting evicted, or suffering food shortages, has escalated sharply during the recession. Between 2005 and 2011, nearly 7 million additional people were unable to make a mortgage or rent payment, suggesting that as the nation’s last-ditch safety net for people in really dire straits, TANF, is not working. Given that science is now showing just how damaging the stress of poverty is to children and their health and intellectual development, maybe it’s finally time for welfare reform to be reformed in a way that gives poor kids a fair shot at a decent future.

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CHART: Welfare Reform Is Leaving More In Deep Poverty

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How to Understand the $13 Billion JPMorgan Settlement

Mother Jones

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Felix Salmon has a pretty good take on JPMorgan’s $13 billion settlement with the government. Roughly speaking, $10 billion of it is for liabilities that JPM knew it was inheriting when it purchased Washington Mutual and Bear Stearns—liabilities that were fully incorporated into the original purchase price. The remaining $3 billion covers fines for actions taken directly under Jamie Dimon’s watch. There’s no SEC overreach here, and there are no unfair penalties for actions taken by companies that the government encouraged JPM to buy. More here.

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How to Understand the $13 Billion JPMorgan Settlement

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The September Jobs Report Is Glum, But October’s Might be Worse

Mother Jones

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The US economy added 148,000 jobs in September, fewer than expected, according to new numbers from the Labor Department, which were released Tuesday—more than two weeks late due to the government shutdown. The jobless rate fell from 7.2 to 7.3 percent, but as in previous months, the drop in unemployment is mostly due to the fact that fewer people were seeking work last month, and thus were not officially counted as unemployed.

The percentage of Americans who are working remained unchanged, at only 58.6 percent, the lowest labor force participation rate since 1986. As economist Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research said Tuesday, “This continues the pattern that we have seen throughout the recovery as the unemployment rate falls mainly because workers leave the labor market. The unemployment rate is now down by 2.8 percentage points from its 10.0 peak in October of 2009. However, the employment rate is up just 0.4 percentage points from its low point hit in June of 2011.”

The unemployment rate for blacks and Hispanics remained disproportionately high. The jobless rate for African-Americans fell one percentage point in September to 12.9 percent; for Hispanics, the number dropped three percentage points to 9 percent.

The leisure and hospitality industry lost the most jobs since December 2009, a stark change from recent months which have seen gains in low-wage service sector jobs. Retail employment increased 20,800. Here’s a chart showing September gains and losses by sector, via Quartz:

There was some mildly positive data in the jobs report. Part-time employment dropped 594,000, suggesting that the surge in part-time employment earlier this year was an aberration. That’s good news for the Obama administration, which has been trying to convince Americans that Obamacare’s requirement that employers offer insurance to people who work more than 30 hours has not caused employers to cut hours.

In other lukewarm news, average hourly earnings increased three cents in September. And construction payrolls increased 20,000, which could ease some economists’ fears that home building was leveling off.

As the Times reports, the dual battles over funding the government and raising the debt ceiling likely worsened the employment situation, “because hundreds of thousands of federal workers and contractors were furloughed and also because anxiety and uncertainty over the budget battle caused consumer confidence to plummet.” But we won’t see those effects until next month’s jobs report. Economists estimate the shutdown cut about 0.6 of a percentage point off fourth-quarter GDP.

More shenanigans over the budget and debt ceiling this winter, not to mention a possible extension of the deep budget cuts known as sequestration, could dampen the economy further. “It’s clear that the conservatives’ long march to austerity spending cuts has sapped aggregate demand from the recovery,” says Adam Hersch, an economist at the liberal think thank, the Center for American Progress. The stagnant economy and Congressional spats have led economists to predict that the Federal Reserve will likely delay scaling back it’s stimulus program.

Hersch says the report is “a stark reminder that it’s time for Congress to focus on the real economic challenges facing ordinary Americans: jobs, incomes, and the public institutions critical to our economy.”

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The September Jobs Report Is Glum, But October’s Might be Worse

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Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder Will Shutter His Dark-Money Fund

Mother Jones

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For months, Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder has been under fire for a nonprofit his administration has used to pay the salary of a top lieutenant, as well as housing and travel costs for Kevyn Orr, the emergency manager appointed by Snyder to shore up Detroit’s finances. On Monday, Snyder announced he would soon dissolve the nonprofit, known as the New Energy to Reinvent and Diversify (NERD) Fund.

Snyder told reporters, according to the Detroit Free Press, that the NERD Fund—which has never disclosed its donors—was becoming a distraction. “I think it is appropriate to say, ‘Let’s wind it down and go forward in a fund where all the donors will be disclosed and the information will be online,'” he said.

Allies of the governor incorporated the NERD fund in February 2011, shortly after Snyder took office, to offset the costs of certain employees and initiatives. Its goal, as the fund’s directors put it, to “advance good government in Michigan while easing the burden on taxpayers.” The NERD Fund raised $1.3 million in unlimited donations from anonymous sources in 2011, but just $368,000 in 2012, according to tax filings. The only publicly revealed donor to the NERD Fund is the pharmaceutical chain CVS, which gave $1,000 in March 2012, according to a company disclosure.

Earlier this month, Snyder testified under oath that he didn’t know who the NERD Fund’s donors were. That hasn’t stopped Snyder’s critics, mainly the state’s labor unions, from raising questions about the influence gained by the fund’s donors.

A spokeswoman for Snyder said the NERD Fund will not reveal its previous donors even after dissolving—a decision that raised fresh questions about the fund’s backers. “Closing the NERD Fund without full disclosure of past donors only begs the question: What is Gov. Snyder hiding?” Karla Swift, president of the Michigan state AFL-CIO, told the Detroit News.

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Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder Will Shutter His Dark-Money Fund

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Chart of the Day: Net New Jobs in September

Mother Jones

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The American economy added 148,000 new jobs in September, but about 90,000 of those jobs were needed just to keep up with population growth, so net job growth clocked in at 58,000. That’s worse than last month, but basically in the same general area of “meh.” The BLS reports that nothing much has changed:

The unemployment rate, at 7.2 percent, changed little in September….The number of unemployed persons, at 11.3 million, was also little changed over the month….Both the civilian labor force participation rate, at 63.2 percent, and the employment-population ratio at 58.6 percent, were unchanged in September….The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was unchanged at 7.9 million in September.

We should be doing better than this. And if it weren’t for the fiscal cliff deal and the sequester and all the other austerity measures we’ve put in place since 2010, we probably would be. These numbers might very well be double what we’re actually seeing. This, as always, is a self-inflicted wound.

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Chart of the Day: Net New Jobs in September

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Right-Wing Media Finally Free to Obsess About Obamacare Website

Mother Jones

Rep. Mark Meadows (R–NC) was the author of a House pledge to vote against any Continuing Resolution that didn’t defund Obamacare. Dave Weigel caught up to him and asked if he planned to write another letter when the current CR runs out:

“We’re not going to need to because the president has said he’s willing to negotiate when there’s not a gun to his head,” said Meadows. “We’ll fix all the problems between now and then. I’m gonna hold him to his word—his word was that he was willing to negotiate now, and that’s what we all expect.” Obviously Meadows could change his mind in a few months, but I was struck how pragmatic he wanted to sound.

Hmmm. I’m pretty sure that Obama didn’t mean he was willing to negotiate about defunding his signature health care bill once the gun was lowered, so I wouldn’t count on anything along those lines. I’d say that ordinary budget negotiations are more along the lines of what he had in mind.

Which is too bad. There are actually details of Obamacare that I suspect Obama and his allies really would like to fix, and they might be able to give Republicans a few things they want in return. But I’m pretty sure that Republicans are still salivating over Obamacare’s imminent collapse once it gets up and running, and are entirely unwilling to do anything that might actually make it function more smoothly. So that’s probably out.

And on a related subject, remember how we all figured that once the budget shutdown was over, conservative sites would finally be freed to start banging away on the problems with the Obamacare website? Well, over at The Corner, seven of the top dozen posts right now are about exactly that. It’s the top story on Drudge. It’s at the top of the blog feed at the Weekly Standard. I count seven Obamacare stories on the front page at Fox News. Red State has two. Etc. This is what it would have been like 24/7 for the past two weeks if Ted Cruz and his merry band of own-goalers hadn’t hijacked the national conversation and made people actually start to feel kind of sorry for Obamacare.

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Right-Wing Media Finally Free to Obsess About Obamacare Website

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In A Shutdown, Who Decides What’s Essential?

Mother Jones

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This story first appeared on the TomDispatch website.

Prioritized above all else were, of course, “national security” activities, deemed beyond essential under the banner of “protecting life and property.” Surveillance at the National Security Agency, for instance, continued, uninterrupted, though it was liberated from its obviously nonessential and, even in the best-funded of times, minimal responsibility to disclose those activities under the Freedom of Information Act. Such disclosure was judged superfluous in a shutdown era, while spying on Americans (not to speak of Brazilians, Mexicans, Europeans, Indians, and others around the planet) was deemed indispensible.

Then there was the carefully orchestrated Special Operations Forces mission in Libya to capture a terror suspect off the streets of Tripoli in broad daylight, proving that in a shutdown period, the US military wasn’t about to shut off the lights. And don’t forget the nighttime landing of a Navy SEAL team in Somalia in an unsuccessful attempt to capture a different terrorist target. These activities were deemed essential to national survival, even though the chances of an American being killed in a terrorist attack are, at the moment, estimated at around one in 20 million. Remember that number, because we’ll come back to it.

Indeed, only for a brief moment did the shutdown reduce the gusher of taxpayer dollars, billions and billions of them, into the Pentagon’s coffers. After a couple days in which civilian Defense Department employees were furloughed, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel announced that 90% of them could resume work because they “contribute to morale, well-being, capabilities, and readiness of service members.” This from the crew that, according to Foreign Policy, went on a jaw-dropping, morale-boosting $5 billion spending spree on the eve of the shutdown to exhaust any remaining cash from the closing fiscal year, buying spy satellites, drones, infrared cameras and, yes, a $9 million sparkling new gym for the Air Force Academy, replete with CrossFit space and a “television studio.”

Furloughing Children

Then there were the nonessential activities.

In Arkansas, for instance, federal funds for infant formula to feed 2,000 at-risk newborn babies were in jeopardy, as were 85,000 meals for needy children in that state. Nutrition for low-income kids was considered nonessential even though one in four children in this country doesn’t have consistent access to nutritious food, and medical research makes it clear that improper nutrition stunts brain architecture in the young, forever affecting their ability to learn and interact socially. Things got so bad that a Texas couple dug into their own reserves to keep the program running in six states.

If children in need were “furloughed,” so were abused women. Across the country, domestic violence shelters struggled to provide services as federal funds were cut off. Some shelters raised spare change from their communities to keep the doors open. According to estimates, as many as six million women each year are victims of domestic violence. On average in this country, three women are murdered by an intimate partner every day.

But funding for domestic violence protection: nonessential.

Funds for early childhood education, too, were shut off. Seven thousand low-income kids from 11 states were turned away. Their “head start” was obviously less than essential, even though evidence shows that early education for at-risk children is the best way to help them catch up with their wealthier peers in cognition and adds to their odds of staying out of prison in later life.

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) wasn’t accepting new patients because of the shutdown. Typically 200 new patients arrive every week for experimental treatment. On average around 30 of them are children, 10 of whom have cancer.

Cancer, in fact, is the leading cause of death among children ages one to 14. But treatment for them didn’t qualify as essential. Unlike fighting terrorism—remember the less-likely-than-being-struck-by-lightning odds of one in 20 million—treating kids with cancer didn’t make the cut as “protecting life and property.”

A father of two young girls in the town of Eliot, Maine, said to a National Priorities Project staffer in disbelief, “If even one kid can’t get cancer treatment, isn’t that enough to end the shutdown?”

Let this be the last time we find ourselves on the wrong side of that question. Because every day we as a nation allowed our lawmakers to keep the government closed was a day in which we as a people were complicit in replying “no.”

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In A Shutdown, Who Decides What’s Essential?

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Sorry, Democrats, the Sequester Is Here to Stay

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As several people have pointed out to me, my headline this morning (“The Republican Defeat in the Budget Deal Was Complete and Total”) is satisfying but not entirely true. After all, Republicans did get a continuing resolution that funds the government at sequester levels. Democrats agreed to that long ago.

But I’ve never really thought of that as a Republican victory, because I never really thought there was any chance at all of rolling back the sequester. Here’s why:

Everyone agreed to it in 2011. Everyone wanted lower spending. Remember, the sequester was a temporary substitute for a Grand Bargain that would have cut spending even more, and it became permanent only when the infamous supercommittee failed. But the supercommittee also would have cut spending even more. The sequester wasn’t a compromise, it was the smallest, most Democrat-friendly level of spending reduction that was on the table in 2011.
Status quo bias is important. In this case, it works in favor of keeping the sequester in place.
Upcoming negotiations over the sequester aren’t an example of hostage taking. They’re just ordinary budget negotiations. If, in the end, it turns out there’s nothing that conservatives want badly enough, then Democrats simply don’t have the leverage to get higher spending levels. And it looks very much as if that’s the case.
The original sequester cuts were dumb, across-the-board reductions. But that was only for last year. Appropriations can all be freshly negotiated this year, which makes the pain of the sequester smaller.
I’m not at all convinced that President Obama even wants to do away with the sequester. He says he does, of course, and his budget proposal includes higher levels of spending. But his actions over the past three years speak louder than words. His pivot to the deficit in 2010 seemed quite genuine, and his active push for a grand bargain in 2011 confirmed that he takes the deficit fairly seriously. It’s true that the sequester is a lousy way of addressing the deficit, but I suspect that Obama thinks it’s better than nothing. If he could negotiate some kind of swap between short-term discretionary cuts and long-term entitlement cuts, he’d do it, but if he can’t he’s not going to invest a lot of energy in fighting the weather.

It’s possible that there’s some kind of minor deal to be made before the CR extension runs out in January. But for the moment, I think the sequester is locked into place. Republicans have never been serious about “entitlement reform,” and even if they were, there’s no way that anything significant could be negotiated within a few weeks. Without that, there’s just no bargain to be had except, possibly, at the margins. Unfortunately for Democrats, the sequester is settled law just as much as Obamacare is. And we all know the lesson Republicans learned from fighting Obamacare, don’t we?

UPDATE: I’m getting some feedback that suggests the Obama White House, in fact, really, really hates the sequester because it hammers discretionary spending so badly. So I might have gone too far in my fifth bullet above. However, I still think the sequester is here to stay, and I doubt that Obama is going to try to fight too hard against it.

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Sorry, Democrats, the Sequester Is Here to Stay

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How Likely Is a Budget Deal Later This Year?

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My congressman, John Campbell, has been sending out daily emails during the budget showdown, and today’s wrap-up shows an admirable grip on reality:

The mainstream media (MSM) would have you believe that this was a “bipartisan agreement”. It was…..in the same way that Lee and Grant reached an agreement at the Appomattox Courthouse in 1865. It was a complete surrender on the part of Republicans. All that was “negotiated” were the terms of that surrender.

Yeah, pretty much. Except that, as I recall, Grant allowed Lee’s men to keep their swords and horses, didn’t he? I’m not sure the 2013 GOP even managed to get that much out of the deal.

In any case, Campbell’s email is basically an effort to buck up the spirits of his fellow conservatives by taking shots at the media, Janet Yellen, Obamacare, and scurrilous Democrats. (No, I’m not sure what Yellen did to deserve being put into this company.) That’s all fine. But I thought this was the interesting part:

The next “cliff” comes on January 15, 2014 when the government could potentially shut down again. That date was intentionally chosen because that is when the next round of Sequester cuts, that further reduce government spending, take effect. This round of cuts will disproportionately hit defense spending. Democrats are hoping that they can leverage increased funding for defense for all the IRS, EPA, ObamaCare and welfare spending that they want. I think that effort will fail. The greatest threats to America today are from within, not without. In my opinion, we must preserve the Sequester as the only force we currently have that is limiting the cost and scope of government to some degree. Between now and then, watch the White House spin machine spool up on how “devastating” these cuts are in order to soften the ground for this push. But, if they want to shut the government down again in order to increase spending, let them do it.

How should this be taken? In its most obvious sense, it’s an assertion that Republicans won’t budge on sequester levels of spending. If the greatest threats to America are “from within, not without,” this means they’re willing to sacrifice the Pentagon in order to keep domestic spending low.

On the other hand—and I freely admit that I’m just reading tea leaves here—when Campbell says only that “I think” increased funding will fail, that sure doesn’t sound very adamant, does it? Even granted that Campbell isn’t a table-pounding type of tea partier, that seems pretty lukewarm. Maybe there really is a minor deal to be made on the budget later this year.

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How Likely Is a Budget Deal Later This Year?

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The Republican Defeat in the Budget Deal Was Complete and Total

Mother Jones

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The budget deal passed by Congress yesterday did, in the end, include one concession to Republicans: a provision that tightens up income verification for Obamacare recipients. Since Democrats were insisting on principle that they wouldn’t provide Republicans with any ransom in return for keeping the government open, this seems a little worrying at first. It may not be a big ransom, but it’s not zero, either.

Today, though, Sarah Kliff reassures me. In fact, it really is zero:

The deal basically requires two submitted reports in the course of the next year. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius is due to submit the first report by Jan. 1, which must detail “the procedures employed by American Health Benefit Exchanges to verify eligibility for credits and cost-sharing reductions described in subsection.” Six months later, the HHS inspector general is required to submit a report “regarding the effectiveness of the procedures and safeguards provided under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act for preventing the submission of inaccurate or fraudulent information by applicants.”

….There’s nothing about the income verification measures that passed Wednesday night that will change Obamacare, aside from a few staff members at Health and Human Services devoting some hours to gathering the data and writing up these reports. And that probably explains why Democrats were okay with passing this language in the first place.

That’s it? A couple of routine reports? I take it back: The Republican defeat in this debacle really was complete and total.

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The Republican Defeat in the Budget Deal Was Complete and Total

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