Tag Archives: electoral-college

2016 Was Not a Tight Race

by AlmaTillyard6 Posted on April 26, 2017

Mother Jones

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I suppose this is hopeless, but I want to try one more time on the Comey thing. The most common response to the suggestion that James Comey’s letter was the turning point in the 2016 campaign is this:

In a race this close, lots of things could have tipped the result. The Comey letter is just one of many.

But this isn’t true. Take a look at 538’s polling numbers in the final two weeks of the campaign:

On the day before Comey sent his letter, Hillary Clinton had a 6-point lead. There is no ordinary campaign event that plausibly could have turned that into a loss. Not dumb ad buys. Not bad internal polling. Not bad speeches by the candidate. Nothing. It’s just too big a lead.

The Comey letter was a bolt from the blue and it cost Clinton three percentage points. This is the only thing that made the race close to begin with. Once Clinton’s lead had been cut by three points, then an extra point of support for Trump in the last couple of days—which 538 and others missed—was just enough for Trump to eke out a 2-point popular vote loss and a miracle Electoral College victory.

That wouldn’t have mattered without the Comey letter. None of those little things that everyone keeps pointing to would have produced a Trump win. It’s true that in a tight race lots of things can make the difference between winning and losing, but it wasn’t a tight race. Not until James Comey sent out that letter, anyway.

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2016 Was Not a Tight Race

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One of Hillary Clinton’s faithless electors went to Faith Spotted Eagle. Here’s who that is.

by ArnulfoKaler05 Posted on December 19, 2016

That’s according to a Reuters investigation that analyzed blood tests from state health departments and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Over 1,100 of those communities have lead levels four times as high as those observed in Flint.

Nationwide, the exposure could be much higher: Data was only available for 21 states, accounting for 61 percent of the U.S. population.

The CDC estimates that 2.5 percent of children across in the United States have at least slightly elevated levels of lead, which can lead to lowered IQs, developmental delays, and learning difficulties, as well as miscarriage and premature birth. The local water supply is frequently the source of lead, but some communities are additionally plagued by industrial waste, lead paint, and lead pipes.

On the campaign trail, President-elect Trump vowed to address the nation’s crumbling infrastructure — including the lead crisis — but many of his cabinet picks have a history of combating legislation that protect public health.

Scott Pruitt, Trump’s pick to head the Environmental Protection Agency, sued that very agency for using the Clean Water Act to prosecute waterway polluters. According to Pruitt, the Act threatens the “property rights of the average American.” He didn’t mention their brains.

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One of Hillary Clinton’s faithless electors went to Faith Spotted Eagle. Here’s who that is.

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Donald Trump Is a Serial, Compulsive Liar

by BeauDrewvd Posted on December 5, 2016

Mother Jones

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Donald Trump, eight days ago:

Donald Trump, in a legal filing five days later, as reported by the Washington Post’s Philip Bump:

Trump is a serial, compulsive liar. Soon he will be president of the United States.

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Donald Trump Is a Serial, Compulsive Liar

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Georgia GOP Elector Says He Might Not Cast His Electoral Vote for Trump

by BarbaraNewcomer Posted on August 3, 2016

Mother Jones

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Georgia Republican Baoky Vu is about to remind American voters—particularly Donald Trump supporters—that the process for selecting a president isn’t quite as democratic as they imagine.

Vu will be on the ballot this fall to become one the state’s 16 electors in the Electoral College. When people cast votes for president, they’re actually selecting electors who have pledged to back their candidate of choice—a distinction that generally has no practical implications. But Georgia is one of 21 states that don’t legally require electors to vote in accordance with the outcome of the popular vote in their state. And according to the Atlanta Journal Constitution‘s Jim Galloway, Vu not only won’t be voting for Trump in November as a citizen; he might not vote for the Republican nominee if he goes to the Electoral College.

An immigrant from Vietnam, Vu called out Trump for his recent attacks against Khizr Khan, the father of a slain American soldier. “Rather than earning the American people’s respect and trust through the duration of the past year, Donald Trump’s antics and asinine behavior has cemented my belief that he lacks the judgment, temperament and gravitas to lead this Nation,” Vu wrote in a statement. “Throughout the process, he has hurled insults at our heroes and their families, denigrated the disabled and praised dictators. Forget political incorrectness, this is simply despicable demagoguery.”

Vu wouldn’t be the first elector to betray the will of the voters. There’s been a long line of so-called “faithless” electors, including Democrat Barbara Lett-Simmons, who abstained from voting for Al Gore in 2000 to highlight the District of Columbia’s lack of congressional representation. But electors normally don’t telegraph those decisions so far in advance, instead making the move out of principle when it does not affect the outcome of the election.

Conservative commentator Erick Erickson cheered Vu’s decision:

It’s unlikely Vu’s sole vote would swing the final outcome of the election. But his decision to so publicly buck the norms of the Electoral College represents yet another instant of party resistance to Trump’s candidacy, and if more electors follow suit, it could change the electoral calculus. Vu’s move could offer a boost to efforts to replace the institution with a national popular vote, an idea that became popular among liberals after Gore lost in 2000, but less so among conservatives. The Republican Party platform even attacks the suggestion, saying, “We oppose the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact and any other scheme to abolish or distort the procedures of the Electoral College. An unconstitutional effort to impose National Popular Vote would be a grave threat to our federal system and a guarantee of corruption, as every ballot box in every state would offer a chance to steal the presidency.”

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Georgia GOP Elector Says He Might Not Cast His Electoral Vote for Trump

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