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In Shocker, Americans Divided by Party on Scalia Replacement

Mother Jones

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A new poll says Americans are evenly divided about whether the vacant Supreme Court seat should be filled this year. Can you guess why they’re so evenly divided? Huh? Can you?

The survey found voters were split deeply along party lines, with 71% of the Democrats favoring Senate consideration of an Obama nominee and 73% of Republicans supporting no action until the next president assumes office.

Yeah, that’s a shocker, all right. By an amazing coincidence, partisans on both sides have accepted the rigorous and principled arguments set forth by their fellow partisans. However, the fight for the independents continues. They’re split 43-42 percent, just like the country as a whole.

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In Shocker, Americans Divided by Party on Scalia Replacement

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Your Boss Wants You to Think Twice About That Back Surgery

Mother Jones

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Corporations typically use data mining of personal information in order to sell more stuff to their customers. However, corporate wellness programs are mostly used in an effort to sell less stuff to their employees. For example:

Based on data such as an individual’s history, the firms can identify a person who might be considering costly procedures like spinal surgery, and can send that person recommendations for a second opinion or physical therapy.

Spinal surgery, which can cost $20,000 or more, is another area where data experts are digging in. After finding that 30% of employees who got second opinions from top-rated medical centers ended up forgoing spinal surgery, Wal-Mart tapped Castlight to identify and communicate with workers suffering from back pain.

To find them, Castlight scans insurance claims related to back pain, back imaging or physical therapy, plus pharmaceutical claims for pain medications or spinal injections. Once identified, the workers get information about measures that could delay or head off surgery, such as physical therapy or second-opinion providers.

So what do you think? Programs designed to lower health care costs are a good idea. Providing useful health information to employees is a good idea. But how about providing information specifically designed to influence a course of treatment? Is this an attempt to steer employees away from fly-by-night doctors who recommend back surgery for everyone? Or just another green-eyeshade attempt to persuade employees to forego expensive procedures?

Hey, those are good questions! Answers will be forthcoming some day.

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Your Boss Wants You to Think Twice About That Back Surgery

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Always Bring a Nuke to a Knife Fight

Mother Jones

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Yesterday Donald Trump finally went ballistic over Ted Cruz’s attacks against him. After listing half a dozen alleged lies, he made this threat:

One of the ways I can fight back is to bring a lawsuit against him relative to the fact that he was born in Canada and therefore cannot be President. If he doesn’t take down his false ads and retract his lies, I will do so immediately.

The great thing about this is that Trump doesn’t even bother pretending that he wants to sue Cruz because he truly believes Cruz isn’t a natural-born citizen. He just flat-out admits that he plans to do it purely as revenge for Cruz being mean to him. The Golden Rule here is simple: “They pull a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue.”

This appears to be a considerable source of Trump’s appeal. His supporters don’t care much about actual political positions; they care about having a mean SOB in office. They probably like Trump more because he’s going after Cruz out of anger rather than as a matter of principle.

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Always Bring a Nuke to a Knife Fight

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Raw Data: Fewer Blacks Are Going to Jail These Days

Mother Jones

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Last week Keith Humphreys noted something interesting: although incarceration rates have gone down recently, the absolute level of white incarceration has risen while the absolute level of black incarceration has fallen. But that’s for prisons. What about local jails?

Same thing, it turns out. Since 2009, the number of white jail inmates has gone up by about 30,000 while the black jail population has gone down by 40,000. Humphreys comments: “In short, if you broaden the lens of analysis from prisons to include jails, the patterns I wrote about are even stronger: Being behind bars is becoming a less common experience for African-Americans and a more common experience for non-Hispanic Whites.”

I don’t quite know what this means, but it’s an interesting tidbit of data. Blacks are still in jail (and prison) at a higher relative rate than whites, but since 2009 that’s at least starting to reverse a little.

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Raw Data: Fewer Blacks Are Going to Jail These Days

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People in the Northeast Sure Do Love Their Landlines

Mother Jones

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At the LA Times, Michael Hiltzik writes:

Although customers have been rapidly abandoning their landline phones for wireless and Internet-based service, more than 18% of California households still relied on landlines for all or most of their phone service as of 2012, according to federal government estimates.

Huh. Only 18 percent? That’s a lot lower than I would have thought. And that got me curious. Which states have the highest percentage of households that have given up on landlines completely? Which states have the lowest percentage? Here’s the answer:

I don’t see much connecting the top ten. I guess they’re a little more rural than average, but that’s about it. The bottom ten, however, are exclusively from the northeast. And more recent surveys confirm this: At the end of 2014, about 30 percent of households in the northeast were wireless-only compared to 50 percent in every other region. That’s a pretty big difference.

This is just idle curiosity, but I wonder what the deal is here? Something regulatory? Why would the entire northeast be so dedicated to their landlines?

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People in the Northeast Sure Do Love Their Landlines

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A Mixed Story on Health Care Spending

Mother Jones

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Katherine Hempstead of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation is optimistic about the growth of health care spending:

The quarterly trend in overall health spending growth using the Altarum Health Spending Economic Indicators series shows a clear peak in Q1 2015 at 6.7 percent, with subsequent declines every quarter. Partial data for Q4 (October and November) show a spending growth rate of 5.2 percent. While overall spending growth in 2015 will clearly exceed that of 2014, a reduction appears to be underway.

As near as I can tell, this spending data hasn’t been adjusted for inflation. When you do that you get the chart at the bottom, which tells a different story. There was indeed a peak in the first quarter of 2015 followed by a sharp drop, but spending growth has gone up steadily since then.

In the long term, I’m fairly optimistic about the trajectory of health care spending. As Hempstead says, it makes sense that we saw some large increases when Obamacare was first implemented, since it brought a lot of new people into the health care system. But after the first year or two, that will flatten out and long-term trends should continue to dominate.

That said, you still need to look at this stuff in real terms. And when you do that, we’re not quite seeing the steady downward march that Hempstead suggests.

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A Mixed Story on Health Care Spending

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There Might Be a Limited Supply of Judges Willing to Make a Supreme Court Kamikaze Run

Mother Jones

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Just a quick note about who Obama is going to nominate for the Supreme Court: it has to be someone willing to make a kamikaze run. It’s going to be a grueling experience for nothing, since Republicans will be happy to put the nominee through the wringer but plainly won’t vote to confirm. In fact, it might be for less than nothing. Whoever gets picked probably can’t be renominated if a Democrat wins in November.

Most likely, then, you’re putting yourself through a punishing ordeal in order to ruin your chances of ever getting a Supreme Court seat. That’s the kind of thing a party loyalist might do, but a circuit court judge? What’s the upside?

Anyway, all this is just to say that Obama may have trouble finding someone willing to be nominated. Keep that in mind when you browse through all the lists of potential candidates.

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There Might Be a Limited Supply of Judges Willing to Make a Supreme Court Kamikaze Run

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Let Us Now Praise the Culture Wars

Mother Jones

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Stephen Prothero has a very odd piece in the LA Times today:

Two surprising conclusions emerge when America’s culture wars — from Jefferson’s heresies to same-sex marriage — are stacked up and weighed together. Conservatives typically start the battles, and liberals almost always win them.

Conservatism is often said to be rooted in a commitment to states’ rights, free markets and limited government. But American conservatives have been for and against all these things at various times. The more consistent idea behind American conservatism is cultural: a form of life is passing away and it is worth fighting to revive and restore it. Driven by this narrative of loss and restoration, culture warriors struggle to resurrect the patriarchal family or Christian America or the homogeneous hometown.

Conservatives typically lose these battles because the causes they select are lost from the start. For example, culture warriors took on Catholics when the Catholic population was mainstreaming and gaining power. They took on same-sex marriage when many gays and lesbians were already out of the closet and accepted by their heterosexual relatives, co-workers and neighbors.

This is backward. Almost by definition—as Prothero acknowledges—conservatives want to keep existing cultural mores in place. It’s liberals who want to change them. Same-sex marriage is a typical case: the United States spent 200 years unanimously believing that it was too absurd even to contemplate. It was gay rights activists, eventually supported by mainstream liberals, who pushed it into the public sphere. Conservatives didn’t fight it before then because there was nothing to fight.

This dynamic isn’t quite universal. The temperance movement, which was generally conservative though a little hard to classify, tried to change a custom that was millennia old. Much more commonly, though, it’s liberals who fight for cultural change. In the postwar era, we’re the ones who started the fights over civil rights; gender equality; prayer in school; abortion; gay rights; voting rights; health care as a basic right; and many others.

Prothero basically says that conservatives take on these movements too late, only after they’ve already started to gain critical mass. That’s why they lose. This is true, but how else could it be? There’s no point in waging a war against something that has no mainstream support and isn’t even a twinkle in the public eye.

And of course, conservatives don’t always lose. Liberals have tried to change the culture around guns, and so far we’ve failed miserably. Drug legalization has made only minuscule progress. And after 70 years, we’re still fighting for truly universal health care.

Nonetheless, the general principle is simple: Liberals start culture fights, and conservatives respond if it looks like we’re starting to succeed. Beyond being the simple truth, it’s also something liberals should be proud of. There’s a lot of enduring unfairness in society, and the main reason I count myself a liberal in the first place is because we’re the ones who fight like hell to bring public attention to this and work to change it. Why would any liberal not gladly accept this?

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Let Us Now Praise the Culture Wars

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Texas Probe of Planned Parenthood Indicts Anti-Abortion Videographers Instead

Mother Jones

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The Harris County, Texas, grand jury tasked with investigating Planned Parenthood announced today that it has cleared the women’s health provider of breaking the law. Instead, the grand jury has indicted David Daleiden and Sandra Merritt of the anti-abortion Center for Medical Progress. Last summer, their group released a series of secretly recorded and deceptively edited videos purporting to show Planned Parenthood officials discussing the sale of fetal tissue—which would be illegal. Houston Public Media reports on today’s grand jury indictment:

David Daleiden and Sandra Merritt have been indicted for Tampering with a Governmental Record, which is a felony. Daleidan was also indicted for Prohibition of the Purchase and Sale of Human Organs, meaning he illegally offered to purchase human organs in the video recording. A violation of this section is a Class A misdemeanor.

Following the release of the CMP’s videos, six states tried to defund Planned Parenthood, 11 states have investigated the women’s health provider (none found evidence of fetal tissue sales), and three congressional committees launched their own inquiries.â&#128;&#139;

The grand jury’s review was extensive and lasted more than two months, noted Harris County District Attorney Devon Anderson in a press release. “We were called upon to investigate allegations of criminal conduct by Planned Parenthood Gulf Coast,” Anderson said in the statement. “As I stated at the outset of this investigation, we must go where the evidence leads us. All the evidence uncovered in the course of this investigation was presented to the grand jury. I respect their decision on this difficult case.”

Earlier this month, Planned Parenthood filed a federal lawsuit against Daleiden and other activists that worked with the CMP. The lawsuit accuses the CMP of racketeering, illegally creating and using fake identification, and illegally recording Planned Parenthood staff.

“These anti-abortion extremists spent three years creating a fake company, creating fake identities, lying, and breaking the law,” said Eric Ferrero, vice president of communications for Planned Parenthood Federation of America, in an emailed statement. “When they couldn’t find any improper or illegal activity, they made it up.”

This is a breaking story. We are updating this post as the story develops.

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Texas Probe of Planned Parenthood Indicts Anti-Abortion Videographers Instead

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Lots of Rich People Seem to Be in Tough Financial Straits

Mother Jones

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Here’s a fairly remarkable poll from Gallup about financial well-being. The direction of the answers is unsurprising: if you earn more, you’re more likely to have enough money to buy the things you need, and less likely to be cutting back on spending.

And yet, of those making over $240,000, a full 10 percent say they don’t have enough money to buy the things they need. And an astonishing 37 percent say they’re cutting back.

I’m not sure what to make of this. Either there are a whole lot of rich people who manage their money really badly, or else this is some kind of statistical artifact. Or maybe rich people consider separate summer and winter getaway homes to be among the things they “need.” It’s a headscratcher.

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Lots of Rich People Seem to Be in Tough Financial Straits

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