Tag Archives: islamic

Raw Data: Illegal Immigration From Mexico

Mother Jones

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Are unauthorized immigrants “pouring across the southern border”? Since Donald Trump said it, there’s automatically a strong chance that it’s a lie, and sure enough, it is.

According to Pew Research, the population of unauthorized immigrants from Mexico peaked in 2007 at 6.9 million and has been dropping ever since. Currently it stands at 5.6 million. As the chart on the right shows, net migration from Mexico has been negative every year since 2008. But maybe the ones that are here are disproportionately murderers and rapists, as Trump also says. Nope. The number of unauthorized immigrants in US prisons is relatively small, and the bulk of the available research suggests that they’re incarcerated at lower rates than US citizens. It’s just another lie.

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Raw Data: Illegal Immigration From Mexico

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Hillary Clinton Crushes Bernie Sanders in South Carolina

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This is nuts. Yesterday Pollster had Hillary Clinton ahead in South Carolina by about 20 points. Today they added one new poll, and they have her ahead by 50 points—which is about what she won by.

Did Bernie really lose 30 points of support in the past two weeks? That’s what the polls seem to show. But why? And how did the press not pick up on this? Most of the coverage I’ve seen has suggested that, sure, Hillary is going to win, but she’s really being pressed in the black community and Bernie could do better than expected. But according to the exit polls, she ended up winning 84 percent of the black vote. And perhaps even more worryingly for Bernie, she even crushed him among voters who agree that our economic system favors the wealthy. That’s his wheelhouse, and he won only 30 percent of their vote.

We’ll know more after Tuesday, but this doesn’t look good for Sanders. If Hillary racks up a big win on Super Tuesday, she’ll be so far ahead in the delegate count she’ll be almost mathematically unbeatable. At that point, it will be pretty hard for him to justify staying in the race.

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Hillary Clinton Crushes Bernie Sanders in South Carolina

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Friday Cat Blogging – 26 February 2016

Mother Jones

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Here is Hilbert resting magnificently on his red blanket on my desk. Upstairs, he has a gray-and-white polka dot blanket on Marian’s desk. I really need to clean this thing over the weekend. At this point, I think there might be more cat fur than actual blanket on my desk.

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Friday Cat Blogging – 26 February 2016

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Chris Christie Gets Another 15 Minutes of Fame

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Apparently Donald Trump has promised to appoint Chris Christie attorney general. Or secretary of state. Or, I dunno, maybe Christie will be in charge of a special task force to lock up Marco Rubio and his entire family in Guantanamo Bay and take their oil. Bada bing. It’s a mystery.

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Chris Christie Gets Another 15 Minutes of Fame

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Republicans Have Totally Lost Their Mojo

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A few hours ago I wondered why none of the other Republican candidates has seriously attacked Donald Trump. I got a bunch of responses, most of which related to policy. They can’t attack him for his xenophobia because most of them support the same policies he does (against Muslim immigration, for a border wall, etc.). They can’t attack him for his crazy tax plan because they all have crazy tax plans. They can’t attack him for wanting to steal Iraq’s oil because Republican voters probably think that sounds like a great idea.

But that’s not what I’m talking about. After all, Trump doesn’t generally attack his rivals at a policy level. He branded Jeb Bush for all eternity by calling him low energy. He got under Ted Cruz’s skin by suggesting he wasn’t a natural-born citizen. He went after Ben Carson by see-sawing between (in Conor Friedersdorf’s words) “implying that Carson is an unstable thug who can’t be trusted in office because of violent things that he wrote about in his memoir, and declaring that his memoir is obvious bullshit that only dupes would believe.”

In other words, forget about policy. Make it personal. Go after Trump for being a crappy businessman. Go after him for his serial affairs and divorces. Go after him for refusing to open his company’s books or his tax returns. Go after him for his miserly record of charitable giving. Go after him for trying to kick an old lady out of her house. More generally, I’m sure the other candidates all set their oppo dogs loose long ago. That’s what you do in campaigns. So what did they find?

Oh wait:

Multiple Republican campaign sources and operatives have confided that none of the remaining candidates for president have completed a major anti-Trump opposition research effort….Presented with that void, outside conservative groups have frantically moved to cobble something together….The same was true with a professional opposition researcher who spoke on the condition of anonymity. This past fall, she decided to start digging into Trump as a side gig to her own job, convinced that the campaign staff either wasn’t up to the task or were too unfamiliar with bankruptcy and SEC filings (as opposed to more traditional political documents).

“They didn’t know how to get a grip on it,” the researcher said. “It’s just being able to connect the dots and to know where to work.”

….It is treated as a truism among Republicans that a vast reservoir of damaging opposition research remains untouched. It’s a suspicion that Democrats aren’t challenging. Indeed, one Democratic opposition research said that they’ve spent the past eight months compiling material on Trump as he’s risen up the ranks. That’s actually not a lot of time. Democrats had started focusing on Mitt Romney in 2009 — a full two years before he ran again for the presidency. But those eight months have produced some good.

That researcher estimated that of all the material they’ve compiled — court and property records, newspaper clips and videos — approximately 80 percent of it has yet to surface in this election cycle.

Holy shit. This is malpractice on a grand scale. With all the money sloshing around the primary, nobody could manage to find a few million bucks to put together a professional ratfucking operation? Republicans really are losing their mojo.

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Republicans Have Totally Lost Their Mojo

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Yes! I Will Be Liveblogging Tonight’s Republican Debate

Mother Jones

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I have run out of excuses. I don’t have any house guests. I’m not going out to dinner tonight. Nobody is celebrating a birthday. My computer and I are fully available to liveblog tonight’s Republican debate.

So I shall. It “starts” at 8:30 pm Eastern on CNN, but it really starts at 9 pm. See you then.

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Yes! I Will Be Liveblogging Tonight’s Republican Debate

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The Latest Cruz-Rubio Spat Is Very Strange

Mother Jones

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Ted Cruz has fired his communications director, Rick Tyler, for spreading a lie about Marco Rubio. Jeff Stein suggests this means there might be hope for us after all:

For months, the top Republican candidates have been engaged in a brutal knockout battle of negativity. Personal insults, lies about each other’s records, schoolyard taunts — nothing has been deemed out of bounds. The good news is that, so far as we can tell, this attack really has backfired….It may be comforting to know that even in this Lord of the Flies–style campaign cycle, some of the basic conventions just might retain a bit of power.

Anything is possible, but I’ll stick with the cynicism my heard-earned age allows me on this score. Still, there really are a couple of odd things about this episode:

The whole thing started when the Daily Pennsylvanian got hold of a video that shows Rubio walking by a Bible-reading Cruz staffer and allegedly remarking, “Got a good book there….Not many answers in it.” But this makes no sense. Did Tyler seriously believe that Rubio walked up to a Cruz staffer and casually denigrated the Bible? Even in the Donald Trump era, no one would believe that. It’s insane. Tyler is an experienced guy, and it’s inexplicable that he’d fall for this.
Tyler took down the video and apologized after he learned Rubio’s remarks had been transcribed incorrectly. Rubio actually said “all the answers are in there.” Normally that’s the end of things. But this time Cruz decided to fire him. What’s that all about?

It sure seems like there’s something goofy going on here. I’m just not sure what.

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The Latest Cruz-Rubio Spat Is Very Strange

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Quote of the Day: "Nothing Too Hard, Mika"

Mother Jones

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Do you ever wonder what Joe and Mika and Donald Trump talk about during commercial breaks on Morning Joe? Me neither. But we’re finding out anyway. Here’s a snippet of hot mic action from their prime-time town hall with Trump last week:

Trump: I watched your show this morning. You had me almost as a legendary figure. I like that.

More good-natured chatting and joshing until the 30-second on-air warning.

Mika: Do you want me to do the one on deportation?

Joe: We really have to go to some questions.

Trump: That’s right. Nothing too hard, Mika.

The audio comes from Harry Shearer, who jokes, “You can cut the adversarial tension there with a knife—a butter knife.” Unfortunately, the joke is on all of us.

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Quote of the Day: "Nothing Too Hard, Mika"

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Raw Data: Projected Poverty Among the Elderly

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The current rate of poverty among the elderly is 9.8 percent, compared to 15.7 percent for those under age 65. But what about the future? The Social Security Administration projects that poverty rates will continue to decline for the elderly. About 7 percent of depression babies, who started retiring in 1990, currently live in poverty, compared to a forecast of 5.7 percent for Gen Xers, who will begin retiring in 2030. However, these averages hide some stark differences:

Not all groups are expected to do so well. Among high school dropouts, poverty rates are projected to increase from 13.5 percent to 24.9 percent…before declining to 18 percent for GenXers….Given the projected increase in minorities and immigrants, as well as the historic increase in women’s labor force participation, retirees with low labor force attachment are increasingly low-educated, low-skilled, and disabled. Not surprisingly, those retirees are projected to have very high poverty rates.

By 2030, SSA forecasts that poverty will be all but eradicated for every income group except one: the very poorest. This is unsurprising but nonetheless far-reaching in its policy implications: If you are poor during your working career you will continue to be poor when you retire. If not, then not. Our retirement programs should be set accordingly.

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Raw Data: Projected Poverty Among the Elderly

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Hillary Wins a Squeaker in Nevada, But It’s a Rout in the Headlines

Mother Jones

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In case you’ve ever wondered about the value of a narrow 5-point win in a state you were expected to take easily, just take a look at today’s headlines. The margin of victory doesn’t matter. The headlines in all four of our biggest daily newspapers were clear as a bell: Hillary won and her momentum is back. That’s the story everyone is seeing over their bacon and eggs this morning.

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Hillary Wins a Squeaker in Nevada, But It’s a Rout in the Headlines

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