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Compound Inflation Is Probably Higher Than You Think

Mother Jones

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Atrios wants the older generation to get it through their heads that kids today don’t exactly lead cushy lives:

I increasingly do think nominal illusion is part of it, as, say, $50,000 sounds like A LOT OF MONEY for a starting job for the older generation, but in 2014 it isn’t that much money.

Yes, yes, yes. If you’re my age, that sounds like a pretty good income for someone a few years out of college. But it’s nothing special. It’s the equivalent of $18,000 in 1980 dollars. If you’re part of an even older generation, think of it as the equivalent of about $6,000 in 1960 dollars.

This isn’t a poverty-level income or anything. But it’s not nearly as much as it sounds like if you’re just vaguely comparing it to what you made in your first job. What’s more, it’s not as if every 20-something college grad makes $50,000 either. Plenty of them make $35,000 or so, and that’s the equivalent of $12,000 in 1980 bucks. That’s what I made in my first job out of college, and although I was never in danger of starving or anything, I wasn’t exactly living like a king in the room I rented out from some friends.

People don’t always have a good sense of just how much inflation compounds to. But as a quick rule of thumb, prices have gone up 3x since 1980 and about 10x since 1950. Keep that in mind whenever you’re mentally comparing current prices and incomes with those from your early adulthood.

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Compound Inflation Is Probably Higher Than You Think

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Friday Cat Blogging – 14 February 2014

Mother Jones

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It’s been a glorious week in Southern California: 77 degrees, sunny, and mild, just like the promotional posters used to promise. Domino celebrated by hanging out in the backyard and soaking up the sunshine. Then, today, she got to laugh at me as the tables were turned and I had to endure having my picture taken by a crew from our local alt-weekly. Will I look happy or will I look lost in thought? It all depends on which picture they use, so I guess I’ll have to wait and be surprised. In any case, it was a remarkably impressive bunch of equipment they brought along. Much better than Domino ever gets.

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Friday Cat Blogging – 14 February 2014

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Does Winning $800 Really Make You More Right Wing?

Mother Jones

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A few days ago a pair of British researchers released a paper that presented a startling conclusion: winning the lottery makes you more conservative. Apparently, having money, even if it’s just money you won randomly, pushes you to the right.

This got a lot of attention, and last night I finally got around to reading a summary of the paper. I was struck by the actual results, which nobody had highlighted. You can see it in the chart on the right, which shows the percentage of people who switched from supporting the Labor Party to supporting the Conservative Party. It’s about 13 percent for non-winners, 14 percent for small winners, and 17 percent for winners of £500 or more.

And….I dunno. Aside from technical arguments about sample size, appropriate statistics, robustness, and so forth, I just have to say that this seems unlikely. Even for people with modest incomes, a lottery win of $800 just can’t be that big a deal. I know that four percentage points isn’t really that large, but even four percentage points seems like an implausibly large effect for a one-time windfall of a few hundred dollars.

At first, I thought I had a clever explanation for this: perhaps being taxed on lottery winnings pushes people a bit to the right. It’s a big bite all at once, and it’s the kind of thing that often strikes people as unfair. But no. It turns out that lottery winnings are tax-free in Britain. So that’s not it.

Bottom line: the results of this study are intuitively appealing, since having money is pretty obviously associated with being more conservative. But I have a hard time believing this result anyway. I’d sure like to see a follow-up in some other country before I take it too seriously.

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Does Winning $800 Really Make You More Right Wing?

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Friday Cat Blogging – 7 February 2014

Mother Jones

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When we watch TV, Domino watches TV. And since Domino has good taste, she almost always curls up with Marian, not me. (I’ll do, but only in a pinch, if Marian isn’t around.) So this was us last night. We were watching the Olympic slopestyle coverage (verdict: meh), and Domino was watching us. Then she fell asleep. Eventually, we did too.

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Friday Cat Blogging – 7 February 2014

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