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Identity Trumps Ideology in Maryland Senate Race

Mother Jones

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At first glance, the Democratic primary for a US Senate seat in Maryland looks eerily similar to the party’s national contest between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. On one side, there’s an establishment candidate, Rep. Chris Van Hollen, who has been in politics since the early 1990s, defines progressivism by legislation passed rather than promises made, and touts wonky policy papers and bills on the campaign trail. On the other, there’s a challenger from the left, Rep. Donna Edwards, who appeals to a national progressive audience with big-picture rhetoric rather than nitty-gritty deal-making.

But this contest doesn’t align neatly with the narrative of the Clinton-Sanders face-off. Rather than a clash of ideologies, the Maryland race has become partly a battle of identity politics. Van Hollen is a white guy, and Edwards is an African American woman. And if Van Hollen wins, the takeaway might be that this element of the race trumped the ideological component.

The contest has been close, although Van Hollen seems to have built a lead in the final stretch, according to polls. If Tuesday’s vote bears out those surveys, it will fulfill the long-expected script for the race. Throughout most of the campaign, the 57-year-old Van Hollen has been the front-runner. He was the first to enter the race last March and quickly locked up the support of most Democratic Party leaders in the state, much as Clinton did on a national level.

The son of a former ambassador, Van Hollen started his career as a US Senate staffer, won a seat in the Maryland legislature in 1990, and was elected to Congress in 2002. With a penchant for handling complicated policy questions, such as budget fights, he soon became part of the party’s leadership circles, serving as an assistant to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. In many of the budget and debt ceiling battles pitting the White House against the tea party Republicans during the Obama years, he has been a key player for the Democrats. He also helmed the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the party’s campaign arm for House races, and he built connections in the national donor class. In the Senate campaign, Van Hollen has raised more than $8 million, compared with just $3.3 million Edwards has gathered.

On the campaign trail, Van Hollen has echoed Clinton. At a debate in Silver Spring two weeks ago, when asked how he would define progressivism, he said, “I believe that being progressive is about more than just saying the right things. It’s about being in the trenches and delivering progressive results.” Compare that to Clinton’s frequent line that she’s a “progressive who gets things done.”

During a phone interview last week, Van Hollen repeatedly directed the conversation to the various policy papers he’s introduced over the years, on subjects ranging from Wall Street reform to local projects in his Maryland district. “I’ve always been in the view that it’s not enough to simply cast a vote,” he said. “You can have people in Congress who push the green button for ‘yes’ and the red button for ‘no,’ they can talk about the issues, but there’s a big difference between that and actually rolling up your sleeves and legislating.”

As a congressman, Van Hollen has shown a talent for wading into the policy minutia on a number of topics. In recent years, he’s proposed a financial transaction tax to pay for tax breaks for middle-class and low-income Americans and a cap-and-dividend bill to address climate change. It’s easy to see why he’s become a liberal favorite in the world of Washington think tanks and advocacy groups.

Still, Edwards has mounted a formidable challenge. She’s built a national following of progressive friends who have boosted her campaign. Groups like the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democracy for America instantly joined her campaign. EMILY’s List, the national group dedicated to electing pro-choice female candidates, has helped Edwards cut into Van Hollen’s fundraising edge, with the group’s super-PAC spending more than $2.4 million to boost Edwards.

Edwards also has a long resume in politics, though mostly from an outsider’s vantage. She started her career at Lockheed Martin as a technical writer for the company’s space program and eventually became a systems engineer for Spacelab, a laboratory designed to fit into the bay of a NASA space shuttle. But when the national appetite for space exploration waned following the Challenger explosion, she went to law school. She subsequently served as a lobbyist at the Ralph Nader-founded Public Citizen and as executive director of two progressive organizations, the Center for a New Democracy and the Arca Foundation. In the early 1990s, she co-founded the National Network to End Domestic Violence and helped push the Violence Against Women Act through Congress.

In 2006, Edwards challenged an incumbent, moderate Democratic congressman named Albert Wynn in the Maryland suburbs of Washington, DC, claiming he was in the pocket of special interests. She lost that race, but defeated Wynn in 2008. She entered the House in an uncomfortable fashion. “It starts out as a much more complicated relationship when you challenge the conventional party structure—both in your state and, by extension, coming into Congress, it’s a different relationship,” Edwards said in a recent interview with Mother Jones. Over the past six years, Edwards has slowly integrated herself into the party apparatus. She chairs the House’s subcommittee on space policy and has taken an active role in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. But she remains something of an outsider, championing the party’s left flank as Sanders does in the Senate.

Edwards has depicted herself as a more relatable alternative to the polished politician she’s challenging. She frequently points to the fact that she was a working single mother for many years. Like Sanders, she’s proved adept at attracting media coverage, particularly in outlets with a younger audience. When the hosts of a popular podcast, Call Your Girlfriend, sold out a synagogue in DC earlier this month, Edwards stopped by for a brief, lighthearted interview. She’s been featured in the Lena Dunham-founded Lenny Letter and in Essence. Earlier this month, her byline appeared in Glamour, where she wrote about the need for equal pay.

Edwards sounds a lot like Sanders when she goes on the attack against Van Hollen. “I don’t take money from Wall Street banks, even though my opponent did,” she said in her first TV ad, released earlier this month. Throughout the campaign, she has needled Van Hollen for any hint of a deviance from liberal orthodoxy, sometimes stretching the truth about her opponent’s record to cast him as a sellout ready to cut any deal with Republicans. She’s criticized him for backing free trade (even though he opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal) and for granting an exception to the National Rifle Association in a bill that would have required the disclosure of campaign contributions. (The bill, with the exception, had wide support from Democrats and the backing of President Barack Obama.) She’s consistently accused Van Hollen of being willing to cut Social Security benefits thanks to his past endorsement of using a compromise budget proposal as a basis for reaching a budget deal with Republicans.

That last attack clearly hit a nerve. When I asked Van Hollen about those claims and whether he regrets any of his past statements, he got defensive. “I’m not going to answer a question that could be misinterpreted in a way that could be used for misleading purposes,” he said, emphasizing that his public stance has always been that Social Security benefits should not be cut.

When discussing politics, Van Hollen and Edwards seem to disagree in the same way that Clinton and Sanders do. Van Hollen tends to be open to compromise in the interest of implementing progressive priorities. Edwards prefers to focus on defining a liberal agenda to ignite passion among voters. “If you’re always trying to shave part off to accommodate the right or the center-right, then you run the risk that people won’t know what you stand for,” she says.

Van Hollen is running even with Edwards or better among Sanders supporters.* The explanation may be that race and gender play as much of a role as ideology, if not a greater one. In the presidential race, Sanders has performed well among men and white voters. In this statewide contest, Van Hollen has held a large lead among white voters in public polls that break down the contest by race. In a recent Monmouth University poll, he led Edwards by a 57-point margin among white Marylanders and by 34 points among men. Edwards is running about even with Van Hollen among women, and she leads among black voters, 62-26 percent.

If Edwards wins, she would be only the second black woman to serve in the Senate, after former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois. The Maryland Senate seat is open because incumbent Democrat Barbara Mikulski, the longest-serving female senator in history, is retiring. That’s one of the reasons EMILY’s List—one of the Clinton campaign’s closest allies—is investing so heavily in Edwards’ campaign. And Edwards’ supporters do point to her gender and race as selling points, noting the Senate could use more diversity. Some Democrats in the state have grumbled that Edwards has not been an effective member of Congress and has failed to provide good constituent services—charges the Edwards camp disputes as the grousing coming from those who don’t like the challenge she poses to the Democratic status quo. “It boggles my mind,” Edwards said, “that we could think that it’s appropriate for my voice to be absent from that conversation on behalf of people who share the same concerns that I do.”

But this is a contest that is chock-full of the various currents within Democratic circles: establishment versus insurgency, compromise versus idealism, and experience versus inspiration—and then throw race and gender into the mix. In some ways, it is a more complicated test than the Clinton-Sanders duel. No doubt, the result will fuel a variety of interpretations about the present and future of the Democratic Party.

This article has been updated to clarify Van Hollen’s standing among Sanders supporters.

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Identity Trumps Ideology in Maryland Senate Race

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An Obscure GOP Rule Aimed at Stopping Insurgents Is Helping Donald Trump

Mother Jones

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Pennsylvania is poised to be the most powerful state at the Republican National Convention. Thanks to an obscure party rule, 54 of the 71 delegates from the Keystone State who will be selected in Tuesday’s primary will not be bound to a candidate at the July convention in Cleveland. And with candidates scrambling for every delegate ahead of a possible contested convention, the state’s delegates could make all the difference. “If Donald Trump gets within 54 delegates, Pennsylvania could be the deal maker or they could be the deal breaker,” says Randy Evans, a member of the party’s rules committee from Georgia.

Pennsylvania holds this much sway because it’s the only state taking advantage of a loophole in a rule the Republican National Committee adopted in 2012, which generally obligates delegates at the convention to vote for a nominee based on the results of their state’s primary or caucuses. That rule was designed to stop insurgent candidates. Four years later, it could have the opposite effect.

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An Obscure GOP Rule Aimed at Stopping Insurgents Is Helping Donald Trump

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Harriet Tubman Was a Republican!

Mother Jones

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Conservatives have finally found something to like about the Obama administration:

Perhaps some of the voices calling for Tubman on the $20 just wanted any prominent African-American woman to replace one of the white males on our currency. If it was political correctness that drove this decision, who cares? The Obama administration has inadvertently given Tubman fans of all political stripes an opportunity to tell the story of a deeply-religious, gun-toting Republican who fought for freedom in defiance of the laws of a government that refused to recognize her rights.

Yeah. That’s the ticket. All those folks in the Obama administration had no idea who Harriet Tubman really was. They were all like, check this out, Jack: black, female, helped slaves, done. Boxes checked. Identity politics satisfied. Put her on the twenty.

The poor fools. She was religious! She carried a gun while helping slaves escape! She was a Republican! She fought for freedom against a tyrannical government! If you think about it, she’s basically the poster child of the modern-day Tea Party. And none of those idiots in the White House had a clue.

Seriously. That seems to be what they think. Next they’re going to remind us that Abraham Lincoln was a Republican too.

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Harriet Tubman Was a Republican!

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Clinton Ends Sanders’ Winning Streak With a Victory in New York

Mother Jones

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Hillary Clinton finally halted rival Bernie Sanders’ recent winning streak on Tuesday, scoring a decisive win in her home state of New York.

With 35 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton led Sanders by more than 20 percentage points, although exit polls showed her with a much narrower lead. The major networks called the race for Clinton about 45 minutes after polls closed.

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Clinton Ends Sanders’ Winning Streak With a Victory in New York

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Soy boom threatens Brazil’s climate goals

Soy boom threatens Brazil’s climate goals

By and on Apr 19, 2016comments

Cross-posted from

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Brazil’s economy is teetering on the edge of collapse. The country’s political regime has been rocked by recent corruption scandals, and impeachment proceedings are encircling the nation’s leaders. And yet things couldn’t be much better for Brazil’s soybean farmers.

At the beginning of the last decade, Brazil emerged as a major soybean exporter. Today, Brazil produces about one-third of the global supply and earns more from soybean exports than from any other commodity.

Although soybean production is generating revenues for Brazil, it could spell trouble for the nation’s widely lauded environmental commitments.

Brazil is the first emerging economy that has pledged to make absolute reductions in its greenhouse gas emissions – that is, reductions from the level that it emitted at a specific point in time (2005), not from an estimate of what it will emit at some future time. Its climate plan calls for cutting emissions by more than 40 percent by 2030, with most of its emission reductions to come through avoiding deforestation. By 2030, Brazil has pledged to restore 12 million hectares of carbon-absorbing forest and eliminate illegal deforestation.

As social science researchers who study environmental change in the Amazon and the Brazilian savanna known as the Cerrado, we have seen the country’s agricultural sector grow rapidly in once-marginal regions. We believe that over the next several years, with Brazil’s soybean sector thriving and its political establishment in crisis, the nation’s commitment to slowing climate change will be severely tested.

Why economic downturns are good for soy farmers

Tough economic times for Brazil can mean boom times for soybean farmers. Soybean prices in Brazil generally depend on two factors: the global price for soybeans, and the value of the local currency (the real) against the U.S. dollar.

Obviously, a high global price for soybeans means more money for farms. However, the importance of the local currency is even more critical for farmers’ bottom lines. Commodities like soybeans are priced in dollars but purchased in local currency, so when the Brazilian real is weak, farmers receive more value (in local terms) for their harvest and earn higher profits.

This dynamic creates a paradoxical relationship between Brazil’s agriculture sector and the national economy: When the economy struggles, farmers reap big profits. In the early 2000s, when the real fell to one-third of its value over a three-year period, soybean profits jumped to stratospheric levels.

In response, farmers converted an area equivalent to the size of Indiana to soybean production. In some areas cropland prices nearly tripled.

Brazil’s current economic collapse is once again creating windfall conditions for soybean farmers. Over the past year and a half, the cracks in the country’s economy have become rifts and the real has lost more than one-third of its value. The further the currency falls, the higher soybean prices rise. From 2011 to 2016, soybean prices increased by 70 percent, peaking in January 2016.

Percent change in soybean prices, and the value of Brazil’s currency, since 2011. Soybean prices in Brazil have surged to near-record levels, even as prices, in terms of U.S. dollars, have declined.

ESALQ/USP

In local terms, we estimate that the value of this year’s harvest will be more than one-third larger than the harvest just two years ago. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that this year Brazil will produce nearly as many soybeans as the United States, an output that was unthinkable even just a few years ago.

Soybeans are generating valuable foreign exchange, new investment capital and high-wage jobs, all of which Brazil critically needs. As the farm sector’s economic clout increases, so does its political influence. Earlier this year during Carnival celebrations in Rio de Janeiro, in a procession seemingly transplanted from a U.S. state fair, dancers dressed as cotton, corn and soybeans paraded through the streets and were “harvested” by a giant float in the shape of an agricultural combine.

Brazil’s agriculture lobby is gaining ground as President Dilma Roussef’s Partido dos Trabalhadores (Workers Party) disintegrates in a wave of corruption scandals. We believe government support for enacting new environmental regulations and enforcing existing environmental laws is already fading.

Forests at risk

After the international community and Brazil’s domestic environmental groups denounced large-scale deforestation in the Amazon in the early 2000s, the government adopted a battery of reforms to reduce forest losses.

Enormous new forest reserves were created and indigenous reserves were expanded. New environmental regulations were enacted to inhibit clearings for cattle pastures and soybean farms. Private agribusinesses worked with environmental advocacy groups, intervening in the soybean and cattle supply chains to discourage land clearing, especially for soybean production.

Evidence suggests that these measures worked. Deforestation fell from nearly 30,000 square kilometers in 2004 to less than 5,000 square kilometers in 2012. But next year the incentive to clear land will be greater than it has been in a decade. Windfall profits from this year’s soybean harvest will give landowners both the incentive to purchase or clear land and the capital that they need to do so.

Early signs of a new wave of deforestation in the Amazon are already appearing. Late last year the Brazilian government released data that showed a 16 percent increase in tree destruction over 2014 levels. The largest increases in forest loss were recorded in Brazil’s leading soybean-producing state, Mato Grosso.

The next several years could well pose a breaking point for Brazil’s economy, which currently is being held together by the country’s booming agriculture sector. In turn, further expansion of agriculture could derail Brazil’s climate commitments.

For most of this decade Brazil has received tremendous acclaim for its environmental actions. Brazil also stands ready to sign the climate change agreement negotiated late last year in Paris. But the country’s ability and will to follow through on those commitments has never been in such doubt.

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Soy boom threatens Brazil’s climate goals

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American Independent Party Voters in California Mostly Just Screwed Up When They Registered

Mother Jones

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I suppose I shouldn’t laugh at this, but the LA Times reports today that the American Independent Party has grown to about 500 thousand members in California since it started up in 1968. Why? A survey suggests that about three-quarters of AIP members thought they were registering as lower-case independents—that is, voters with no party preference. Now that’s a low-information voter.

None of this has anything to do with Bernie Sanders. As you can see, voters declaring no party preference have been on the rise for well over a decade. But it still makes a difference: if you’re independent, you can vote for Bernie in the California primary. If you’re AIP, you can’t. So it’s likely there are upwards of 400 thousand registered voters in California who may be leaning toward Bernie but won’t be able to vote for him. They better re-register quick if they want to feel the Bern.

They won’t, of course. Anyone who made a mistake like this isn’t likely to care enough about Democratic Party politics to bother. Still, it makes you wonder if someone could siphon off, say, Republican votes by starting up the Independent Voters of the Republic Party or something. Worth a try!

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American Independent Party Voters in California Mostly Just Screwed Up When They Registered

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Inside 2016’s Weirdest Republican Delegate Fight

Mother Jones

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The US Virgin Islands Republican caucus would hardly register on the national radar in a normal year. Traditionally, it hardly even registers on the islands’ radar—fewer than 100 people participated in the 2012 event. But with front-runner Donald Trump struggling to lock up the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination, the behind-the-scenes wrangling for delegates has taken on an unprecedented significance. And that fight has come to this US territory. The chaos there says a lot about what could unfold in Cleveland in July, when the Republicans convene to select their presidential nominee.

This collection of Caribbean islands—which includes St. Croix, St. John, and St. Thomas—is home to one of the smallest Republican parties in the United States, but it has produced one of the nastiest and most unexpected political clashes in recent memory. The battle has played out in radio attack ads and in the courts, featuring allegations including corruption, carpetbagging, and Nazi sympathizing.

In one corner is the island’s Republican Party chair, John Canegata, a shooting-range owner who works at a rum distillery and has led the GOP there for four years. In the other is a faction led by John Yob, a veteran political consultant from Michigan who worked for Sen. Rand Paul’s presidential campaign before moving to the islands last winter. Yob and his wife, Erica, along with Lindsey Eilon, another political operative recently arrived from Michigan, were among the six delegates elected on March 10; Canegata is fighting to have the entire slate replaced and has signaled he may take the challenge all the way to Cleveland.

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Inside 2016’s Weirdest Republican Delegate Fight

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Notorious Coal Baron Don Blankenship Sentenced to a Year in Prison

Mother Jones

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A federal judge in West Virginia sentenced former Massey Energy CEO Don Blankenship to a year in prison on Wednesday for conspiring to commit mine safety violations at his company’s Upper Big Branch mine during a period leading up to the explosion there that left 29 miners dead in 2010.

The mountaintop estate where Blankenship once hosted visitors. Read MoJo‘s chronicle of Blankenship’s rise and fall in West Virginia. Stacy Kranitz

Blankenship was convicted of the misdemeanor charge in December, but the conviction was explicitly not linked to the Upper Big Branch disaster itself and Blankenship’s attorney worked hard to ensure the accident was hardly mentioned during the trial. And that verdict was a disappointment to prosecutors; he was found not guilty of the more serious felony charges of making false statements to federal regulators in the aftermath of the blast in order to boost Massey’s stock price. (Had he been convicted on all counts, he would have faced up to 30 years in prison.) The conspiracy conviction rested on evidence of Blankenship’s domineering management style, which emphasized profits over the federal mine safety laws designed to avert underground explosions:

The attention to detail that made Blankenship such an effective bean counter may also be his undoing. He constantly monitored every inch of his operation and wrote memos instructing subordinates to move coal at all costs. “I could Krushchev you,” he warned in a handwritten memo to one Massey official whose facilities Blankenship thought were underperforming. He called another mine manager “literally crazy” and “ridiculous” for devoting too many of his miners to safety projects. Despite repeated citations by the MSHA, Blankenship instructed Massey executives to postpone safety improvements: “We’ll worry about ventilation or other issues at an appropriate time. Now is not the time.” And this is only what investigators gleaned from the documents they could find: Hughie Stover, Blankenship’s bodyguard and personal driver—and the head of security at Upper Big Branch—ordered a subordinate to destroy thousands of pages of documents, while the government’s investigation was ongoing. (Stover was sentenced to three years in prison in 2012 for lying to federal investigators and attempting to destroy evidence.)

Before he stepped down as Massey’s CEO in 2010, Blankenship had built the company into one of the largest coal producers in the United States and become a polarizing figure in his home state, where he bankrolled the rise of the Republican Party, pushed climate denial, and crushed unions. For more on Blankenship, read my piece from the magazine on his rise and fall.

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Notorious Coal Baron Don Blankenship Sentenced to a Year in Prison

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Reality Is Bearing Down on Paul Ryan

Mother Jones

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Lisa Mascaro reports that the honeymoon may be over for Paul Ryan. He only lasted five months:

As Congress is careening toward another budget crisis and the Republican Party is ripping itself apart over Donald Trump’s rise, the man best known as the architect of the GOP’s austere spending blueprint is likely to miss an April 15 deadline to approve a new funding plan for 2017.

He’s been unable to overcome the same resistance from the conservative House Freedom Caucus that doomed his predecessor, and is so far similarly unwilling to use the power of the speaker’s office to force stragglers to fall into line.

….To some, Ryan’s repeated calls for Republicans to “raise our gaze” and his frequent attempts to position himself as the GOP’s deep thinker are starting to give off an air of ivory tower insignificance. Conservatives wonder if he’s still a “young gun” trying to shake up the party. At a Trump rally in Ryan’s Wisconsin hometown of Janesville last week, the crowd booed the mention of his name.

….In many ways, the speaker’s problems are of his own making, the result of a leadership strategy he helped forge to recruit the most conservative candidates to run for office and then, after Republicans won the House majority in the 2010 midterm election, reject almost all of Obama’s initiatives.

Well, it’s still early days. Maybe Ryan is just working slowly and steadily to gain some kind of consensus. More likely, though, the tea partiers aren’t any more willing to compromise under Ryan than they were under Boehner—and that leaves Ryan high and dry. If he can’t convince them to be flexible even during an election year, he obviously doesn’t have much conservative credibility left. Hard to believe.

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Reality Is Bearing Down on Paul Ryan

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Clinton Campaign: No More Debates Until Sanders Starts Being Nicer

Mother Jones

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The Democratic presidential candidates are back at it, having debates about scheduling more debates. Over the weekend, Sen. Bernie Sanders publicly challenged Hillary Clinton to face off on a debate stage in New York before the state’s primary on April 19. On Monday, a top Clinton staffer said not so fast.

The Sanders and Clinton campaign have tussled since the start of campaign season over the number of debates. But it seemed like those silly tiffs were finally settled back in January, when the two campaigns agreed to meet for debates once a month through May.

Now the Clinton campaign is sounding less sure about that agreement. Joel Benenson, the campaign’s chief strategist, said on CNN Monday morning that Sanders needs to watch his tone, or else the Clinton campaign will pack up its ball and head home. “The real question is, what kind of campaign is Sen. Sanders going to run going forward?,” Benenson said when asked about Sanders’ request for a New York debate.

“Let’s see the tone,” Benenson continued when pressed about why Clinton was reluctant to debate. “This is a man who said he’d never run a negative ad; he’s now running them, they’re planning to run more. Let’s see the tone of the campaign he wants to run before we get to any other questions.”

Benenson added, “Let’s see if he goes back to the kind of tone he said he was going to set early on. If he does that, then we’ll talk about debates.”

The problem with Benenson’s argument is that the 2016 Democratic primary has been one of the most remarkably friendly contests in recent memory. While Republican Party leaders mount a #NeverTrump campaign as the front-runner mocks the appearance of his opponent’s spouse, the Democratic candidates have largely focused on minor policy differences, with Sanders waving away efforts to get him to attack Clinton for using a private email server. Sanders regularly says he’ll back Clinton if she’s the nominee and encourages his supporters to do the same. And Sanders has yet to call Clinton’s success “the biggest fairy tale” or circulate old photos of Clinton to question her religious beliefs—actions the Clinton camp took during the far nastier 2008 Democratic race.

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Clinton Campaign: No More Debates Until Sanders Starts Being Nicer

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