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The Great 1998 Chart Swindle Is Now Officially Over

by JanisUnaipon Posted on October 26, 2015

Mother Jones

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One of the favorite topics in the climate change denial community is the “global warming pause.” It’s based on the fact that 1998 was an unusually warm year, so if you begin a climate chart in 1998 it will look as if nothing much has happened since. I made fun of this last week, but it occurs to me that we might genuinely have seen the last of that famous chart.

Why? Because it’s no good anymore. David Roberts tells me today that Republicans are incensed over a recent NOAA paper that suggests the “pause” is due to mismeasurements of ocean temperatures, but who even needs that anymore? Just look at the basic numbers in the chart below. Even if you start in 1998, you can see obvious evidence of warming.

Bottom line: Even the famously deceptive 1998 chart doesn’t work anymore. I suspect that we’re going to see a sudden lack of interest in 1998 charts from the denialists. They’ll have to move on to swindling the rubes with something else.

And if you’re curious, here’s an honest, plain-Jane chart of the past 50 years. The 1998 outlier is pretty obvious here, and the evidence of steady warming is pretty obvious too.

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The Great 1998 Chart Swindle Is Now Officially Over

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Texas Schools Are Performing Pretty Well. Surprised?

by aleidasharrington Posted on October 26, 2015

Mother Jones

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David Leonhardt:

When the Education Department releases its biennial scorecard of reading and math scores for all 50 states this week, Florida and Texas are likely to look pretty mediocre. In 2013, the last time that scores were released, Florida ranked 30th on the tests, which are given to fourth and eighth graders, and Texas ranked 32nd.

But these raw scores, which receive widespread attention, almost certainly present a misleading picture — and one that gives short shrift to both Florida and Texas. In truth, schools in both states appear to be well above average at teaching their students math and reading. Florida and Texas look worse than they deserve to because they’re educating a more disadvantaged group of students than most states are.

This conclusion is based on a new report by the Urban Institute. That’s fine, but we pretty much knew this already. Texas has large black and Hispanic populations, and they tend to do worse on academic tests than whites—which makes the overall scores for Texas look weak. But if you head over to the NAEP site and look at scores for each state disaggregated by race you can get the real story in about five minutes. The chart below is for 8th grade math, but you can do the same thing for any other test. It’s sorted by black test scores, and as you can see, Texas is 3rd in the nation. (Florida is 15th.) It’s also 3rd in Hispanic scores, and 5th in white scores.

The Urban Institute controls for other factors besides race (poverty, native language, special ed), and that makes Florida look even better than the disaggregated NAEP scores suggest. But Texas looks good no matter what. If education reporters would pay attention to this stuff, it might not come as such a big surprise. Like it or not, Texas has been scoring pretty well for quite a while.

From: 

Texas Schools Are Performing Pretty Well. Surprised?

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Stop It

by bestleanmusclesupplementwix Posted on October 26, 2015

Mother Jones

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Now you guys are just messing with me. On Saturday I wrote a short post complaining that another short (and insignificant) post had become my most widely-liked post of all time. Now Saturday’s little gripe has 12,000 Facebook likes.

I hate you all.

This article – 

Stop It

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Lots of People Still Aren’t Aware That Obama Wants to Give Them Cheap Health Care

by OYGBridget Posted on October 24, 2015

Mother Jones

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Covered California, my state’s version of Obamacare, announced some discouraging results yesterday. Among the uninsured, lots of people know about the tax penalty for not buying insurance, but a full third have no idea that subsidies are available to reduce the cost of buying coverage. Here’s what they’re doing about it:

Based on the survey results, as well as a review of research from a wide range of other sources (including those who have enrolled), Covered California has refined its comprehensive outreach campaign aimed at reaching the uninsured in their communities, through Navigator grants to community organizations; support for more than 18,000 Certified Insurance Agents; and promotion of storefronts where consumers can get free, confidential help enrolling.

The outreach campaign will include a new television, radio, digital and outdoor advertising campaign to reach multi-segment, Hispanic, Asian and African-American audiences. Details about the campaign and television ads, the route of the “Spotlight on Coverage” bus tour and new dental coverage will be released next week.

Meh. I have taken the liberty of creating a punchier campaign. Just running this up the ol’ flagpole to see if anyone salutes, you understand. Of course, we’ll need to rework the website too if we want to create a disruptive culture that appeals to people who like free money. And TV too. I’m thinking of a micro-targeting campaign that uses big data analytics to reach our SES demo, and impacts eyeballs with maximum penetration at minimal cost. And let’s not forget social media either. Those guys love free stuff. Let me know what you think.

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Lots of People Still Aren’t Aware That Obama Wants to Give Them Cheap Health Care

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Is Mitt Romney Mellowing on Obamacare?

by DTHRamon724778 Posted on October 23, 2015

Mother Jones

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Tom Stemberg, one of the cofounders of Staples, died today. His company was famously funded by Bain Capital, and Stemberg became good friends with Mitt Romney:

Romney recalled that shortly after he was elected, Mr. Stemberg asked him why he ran for governor. Romney said he wanted to help people, and Mr. Stemberg replied that if he really wanted to help, he should give everyone access to health care, which Romney said he hadn’t really considered before.

“Without Tom pushing it, I don’t think we would have had Romneycare,” Romney said. “Without Romneycare, I don’t think we would have Obamacare. So without Tom, a lot of people wouldn’t have health insurance.”

That sure doesn’t sound like a guy who’s a diehard opponent of Obamacare, does it? I wonder if a decade from now Romney will be taking credit for kickstarting national health care in the United States?

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Is Mitt Romney Mellowing on Obamacare?

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Friday Cat Blogging – 23 October 2015

by JohnieXiong6 Posted on October 23, 2015

Mother Jones

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In some Eastern religions, we are thought to be trapped in a long cycle of death and rebirth. When you die, you are reborn in another earthly body, moving ever upward as you build up positive karma in previous lives. Eventually, you break free and reach nirvana.

I think this is probably true, and the penultimate state before reaching nirvana is being a housecat that’s adopted by humans who mysteriously find themselves compelled to treat the cat as royalty. Proof below. Any being who can attain this much happiness, even for a few moments, obviously has no place to go next but nirvana.

This article:

Friday Cat Blogging – 23 October 2015

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Let’s Just Blame China for Everything and Call It a Day

by AnnWaddy820093 Posted on October 21, 2015

Mother Jones

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This cracks me up. A few minutes ago Wolf Blitzer brought on Rep. Michael McCaul, chairman of the Homeland Security committee, and asked him a question about WikiLeaks getting hold of CIA Director John Brennan’s private email account. McCaul nattered on for a bit about the OPM breach a few months ago, and then said this:

McCaul: I wouldn’t be surprised if China was behind this one.

Blitzer: Behind this one? Because it seems like this hacker claims to be under 22 McCaul starts to appear a bit puzzled and deep in thought a young kid who’s stoned all the time. You think that—

McCaul: Oh yeah yeah yeah, I apologize, you’re correct about that. This was a young, sort of anonymous type figure, that did claim to be stoned at the time he did that, which is remarkable given what he accomplished.

Two things. First, do you notice how McCaul just sort of defaults to hacker —> China? This should give us something of a clue about how Republicans process this stuff.

Second, this 22-year-old stoner hacked an AOL account. That’s not especially remarkable. Apparently McCaul also defaults to hacker —> supergenius. Quite a guy to have in charge of homeland security.

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Let’s Just Blame China for Everything and Call It a Day

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Here’s the Secret Data Climate Scientists Are Hiding From Us

by TWWTawnyalsjmn Posted on October 21, 2015

Mother Jones

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For years, the more dimwitted of the climate denialists have been yammering on about a pause in global warming. This is not based on the measurements and models that even some climate scientists are puzzled about. It’s based on using a chart that begins in 1998, which was an unusually warm El Niño year. By using a very warm starting point and a more ordinary ending point, they make it look like nothing much has been going on for over a decade.

It’s all nonsense. But two can play at that game. Last year was quite warm, and this year is warmer still. From the New York Times: “The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the American agency that tracks worldwide temperatures, announced Wednesday that last month had been the hottest September on record, and that the January-to-September period had also been the hottest since 1880. Scientists say it is now all but certain that the full year will be the hottest on record, too.”

Hmmm. 2008 was a bit of an outlier on the cool side. So I think I’ll start there and end in 2015. Handily for me, NOAA now has a nice interactive tool that allows me to chart any period I want and even calculates the trend line for me. This generated the chart on the right. Naturally, I changed the y-axis to Fahrenheit in order to produce bigger, more dramatic numbers. Oh, and I started the y-axis at 0.8 °F instead of zero, because that produces a steeper, more apocalyptic trend line.

So there you have it. Proof positive that global temperatures are skyrocketing at a pace of 0.58 degrees per decade. This is the news that climate “scientists” in the pay of Big Fossil have been hiding from us. If you can’t trust a chart based directly on NOAA data, what can you trust?

Source: 

Here’s the Secret Data Climate Scientists Are Hiding From Us

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Ryan: No Immigration Reform If He’s Speaker

by MaiChristiansen Posted on October 21, 2015

Mother Jones

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Rep. Paul Ryan met with the Republican caucus in the House today and told them he was willing to run for Speaker. But only on his terms: unanimous support, reduced fundraising duties, and an end to mid-session attempts to remove the Speaker from power. According to a team of National Review reporters, he didn’t offer much in return—except for this:

Though it wasn’t a night in which Ryan was making many concessions — aside from a nod that he was seriously considering taking a job he has said publicly he does not want — he also hinted strongly that he will not bring an immigration bill to the House floor. He told his colleagues the issue was simply “too divisive” and he wanted to focus on the things on which the conference is in agreement, like border security and internal enforcement, as opposed to a comprehensive bill.

This doesn’t strike me as a huge concession. Ryan may be an immigration dove, but under the current circumstances there’s no way he’d try to cut a deal with Democrats for comprehensive immigration reform. Especially not during an election year. The conservative base rebelled over this in 2006 and then again in 2013. Bringing it up again would be nuts. And whatever else Ryan is, he’s not nuts.

So there you have it: no immigration reform this year or next. But you weren’t really expecting any, were you?

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Ryan: No Immigration Reform If He’s Speaker

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Since Donald Trump Brought It Up, Let’s Ask Him Again for Evidence That He "Fought Against Going Into Iraq"

by DeboraFreycinet Posted on October 18, 2015

Mother Jones

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Ezra Klein today:

I don’t know if Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination. But even if he doesn’t, it’s increasingly clear he’s going to destroy Jeb Bush before he loses….Trump insists that George Bush was president both prior to and during the 9/11 attacks, and he was therefore at least partly responsible for the security failures that permitted the tragedy.

I’m not so sure. As I recall, liberals spent a lot of time in the mid-aughts trying to make the case that George Bush was negligent in protecting the country before the 9/11 attacks—Exhibit A being the infamous Presidential Daily Brief titled “Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US.” You’d think that would be pretty devastating, but it had its 15 minutes of fame and then faded out even among lefties. I doubt it will have any greater effect now, especially in a Republican primary.

What it will do, unfortunately, is almost guarantee that it comes up as a question in the next Republican debate. Debate moderators seem to be wholly unable to ignore juicy Trump bait like this. That’s too bad. I don’t really care about relitigating George Bush’s negligence prior to 9/11, but I do care about letting Trump set the terms of the campaign. Enough.

But there is one interesting thing that might come of this. Trump has lately moved on to a more defensible criticism of George Bush, asking Jeb, “why did your brother attack and destabilize the Middle East by attacking Iraq when there were no weapons of mass destruction?” This is not interesting because of what it says about George Bush—I think we already know that—but because it gives us another chance to harass Trump for lying about his opposition to the war during the second GOP debate:

I am the only person on this dais [] that fought very, very hard against us — and I wasn’t a sitting politician — going into Iraq. Because I said going into Iraq — that was in 2003, you can check it out, check out — I’ll give you 25 different stories. In fact, a delegation was sent to my office to see me because I was so vocal about it. I’m a very militaristic person, but you have to know when to use the military. I’m the only person up here that fought against going into Iraq.

So far, no one has managed to find even the slightest record of Trump opposing the Iraq War before it started. The closest he came was a breezy comment at the Vanity Fair post-Oscar party, three days after the war started. During the day CNN had been reporting nonstop about the battle of Nasiriya, in which 11 Americans were killed and six captured—including Jessica Lynch. It was the first serious fighting of the war, and apparently it was enough to inspire a classic Trump complaint about the incompetent losers running the invasion. “The war’s a mess,” he declared to an entertainment reporter, and then swept away.

There’s zero evidence that he opposed the war before it started and zero evidence that he opposed it during its first year. It wasn’t until November 2004—nearly two years after the war started—that he finally spoke up. “I do not believe that we made the right decision going into Iraq, but, you know, hopefully, we’ll be getting out,” he said on Larry King Live. That was after Fallujah, after Abu Ghraib, and after the growth of the insurgency in Sadr City and Basra. Trump hardly gets any brownie points for turning against the war at that point.

Anyway, that would be a good question to ask Trump at the debate later this month. Where are those 25 stories about how he “fought against going into Iraq”? Where’s even one? Maybe a personal diary? Trump is not a shy man, and it’s hard to believe that he felt so strongly about this but never said anything for two long years. As I recall, there were plenty of opportunities, including one just a few a blocks from his office. Let’s ask him about this.

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Since Donald Trump Brought It Up, Let’s Ask Him Again for Evidence That He "Fought Against Going Into Iraq"

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