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Northern California sees driest winter on record

Northern California sees driest winter on record

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Nearly 100 years ago, Dust Bowl refugees from the middle of the country sought new lives and livelihoods in the Golden State. Now California is fixing to become its own damn dust bowl. The last two months in the northern Sierra Nevada, normally the wettest time of the year, have shattered an all-time weather record as the driest January and February in recorded history.

From The Sacramento Bee:

The northern Sierra is crucial to statewide water supplies because it is where snowmelt accumulates to fill Shasta and Oroville reservoirs. These are the largest reservoirs in California and the primary storage points for state and federal water supply systems.

If February concludes without additional storms — and none are expected — the northern Sierra will have seen 2.2 inches of precipitation in January and February, the least since record-keeping began in the region in 1921.

That is well below the historical average of 17.1 inches.

Other spots throughout the state have also seen record dry conditions after November and December brought an epic atmospheric river to the West Coast, drenching the North Sierra in twice the average precipitation.

Another such Pineapple Express is unlikely in the months to come, though, and that reality has left residents dry and a bit itchy. Farmers are scaling back their plans to account for the lack of water. One water authority director laments that “there will be a lot of land fallowed” even though the state was “almost in flood-control conditions back in December.”

From feast to famine in just two months — quick work, California!

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Soot is the second-most dangerous global warming pollutant

Soot is the second-most dangerous global warming pollutant

When the EPA announced stricter limits on soot emissions last year, the health benefits were immediately apparent. Less soot — that is, tiny particles that result from burning fossil fuels — means fewer heart attacks, less asthma, longer lifespans. On this basis alone, the new standard is a beneficial move.

Soot and smoke in Pittsburgh during the early 1900s

As it turns out, the move could also play a significant role in countering global warming. Researchers have determined that black carbon (soot) contributes twice as much to global warming as previously understood. From the University of Washington:

Black carbon’s role in climate is complex. Dark particles in the air work to shade the Earth’s surface while warming the atmosphere. Black carbon that settles on the surface of snow and ice darkens the surface to absorb more sunlight and increase melting. Finally, soot particles influence cloud formation in ways that can have either a cooling or warming impact.

Last year, another team of researchers proposed a novel way to curb Arctic ice melt: halting airplane trips over the region. The black carbon emitted by trans-Arctic flights lingers in the atmosphere in the area longer than it does elsewhere.

Bloomberg.com outlines other effects:

The four-year study by more than two dozen researchers also showed that black carbon causes “significantly higher warming” over the Arctic and can affect rainfall patterns in high- emitting regions such as Asia. The pollutant also has contributed to rising temperatures in mid- to high-latitude areas including the U.S. and Canada.

The article (by the aptly named “Justin Doom”) notes that soot “trails only carbon dioxide as the most dangerous climate pollutant.”

Soot pollution won’t be a trivial problem to fix. A recent report suggested that some 1,200 new coal plants are planned around the world, and coal consumption for power production is a big generator of soot. Earlier this week, we noted that soot pollution in Beijing was spiking as electricity production increased, though levels have since receded. Diesel engines, another major contributor to black carbon pollution, pose another set of challenges.

Nonetheless, you can’t cure a disease until you diagnose it. Here’s our diagnosis: Soot is dangerous — in more ways than we knew.

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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Pinnacles in California named as 59th national park

Pinnacles in California named as 59th national park

While California’s state parks are perpetually troubled, at least the Golden State can celebrate a new national park. On Thursday, President Obama signed into law a bill by Rep. Sam Farr (D-Calif.) that makes Pinnacles National Monument in central California a protected national park, the 59th in the country and ninth in the state.

ericinsf

The San Jose Mercury News has more:

“The park’s sanctuary for the California condor and native wildlife, its red crags, caves, impressive displays of spring wildflowers, and opportunities for star-viewing under its noteworthy dark skies make Pinnacles a special place and worthy of its national park status for future generations to enjoy,” said Neal Desai, Pacific Region associate director for the National Parks Conservation Association.

Farr had tried to make the bill stronger, but was foiled by House Republicans:

[T]he last Congress, which ended Jan. 3, was the first Congress since 1966 not to designate a single new acre of public land in America as federally protected wilderness, where logging, mining and other development is prohibited.

Farr’s bill originally called for designating 3,000 acres inside Pinnacles boundaries as wilderness. The area is where biologists in recent years have been releasing California condors as part of a captive breeding program to bring the species back from the brink of extinction. But that provision was stripped out by Rep. Doc Hastings, R-Wash., chairman of the House Resources Committee.

Last month, Obama proposed adding 2,700 square miles off the coast of Northern California to the national marine sanctuary system, permanently protecting the area from oil and gas drilling.

That’s all well and good for the (adorable) sea otters and (unfortunate-looking) condors, Obama, but what about the rest of us? For all he might be doing, Obama is not measuring up to his predecessors when it comes to protecting public lands. According to the usually Obama-friendly Think Progress, under this president, the U.S. has protected less than 10 percent of the acreage protected under Bill Clinton, and less than 25 percent of what was protected under George W. Bush.

I know it’s cold out, but you’d best hustle outdoors this weekend if you’d like to see any of this country’s wild places before they’re turned into one giant drilling field. At least we’ll always have Pinnacles.

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Pinnacles in California named as 59th national park

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Pinnacles in California named nation’s 59th national park

Pinnacles in California named nation’s 59th national park

While California’s state parks are perpetually troubled, at least the Golden State can celebrate a new national park. On Thursday, President Obama signed into law a bill by Rep. Sam Farr (D-Calif.) that makes Pinnacles National Monument in central California a protected national park, the 59th in the country and ninth in the state.

ericinsf

The San Jose Mercury News has more:

“The park’s sanctuary for the California condor and native wildlife, its red crags, caves, impressive displays of spring wildflowers, and opportunities for star-viewing under its noteworthy dark skies make Pinnacles a special place and worthy of its national park status for future generations to enjoy,” said Neal Desai, Pacific Region associate director for the National Parks Conservation Association.

Farr had tried to make the bill stronger, but was foiled by House Republicans:

[T]he last Congress, which ended Jan. 3, was the first Congress since 1966 not to designate a single new acre of public land in America as federally protected wilderness, where logging, mining and other development is prohibited.

Farr’s bill originally called for designating 3,000 acres inside Pinnacles boundaries as wilderness. The area is where biologists in recent years have been releasing California condors as part of a captive breeding program to bring the species back from the brink of extinction. But that provision was stripped out by Rep. Doc Hastings, R-Wash., chairman of the House Resources Committee.

Last month, Obama proposed adding 2,700 square miles off the coast of Northern California to the national marine sanctuary system, permanently protecting the area from oil and gas drilling.

That’s all well and good for the (adorable) sea otters and (unfortunate-looking) condors, Obama, but what about the rest of us? For all he might be doing, Obama is not measuring up to his predecessors when it comes to protecting public lands. According to the usually Obama-friendly Think Progress, under this president, the U.S. has protected less than 10 percent of the acreage protected under Bill Clinton, and less than 25 percent of what was protected under George W. Bush.

I know it’s cold out, but you’d best hustle outdoors this weekend if you’d like to see any of this country’s wild places before they’re turned into one giant drilling field. At least we’ll always have Pinnacles.

Susie Cagle writes and draws news for Grist. She also writes and draws tweets for

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Can fed-up Oregon organic farmers get a GMO ban on the ballot?

Can fed-up Oregon organic farmers get a GMO ban on the ballot?

Petitioners in Southern Oregon’s Jackson County are pushing a measure onto the ballot that would outlaw the farming of genetically modified crops in the region.

Recently Jackson County organic farmers found genetically modified sugar beet crops planted by the Swiss corporation Syngenta AG as close as one-eighth of a mile from their farms. Until last year, any GMO crop planted within four miles of an organic farm would’ve been against Department of Agriculture rules. But since then, it’s been a farming free-for-all.

From the Mail Tribune:

Ashland seed farmer Chuck Burr said he has a personal reason to support a proposed ban on genetically modified organisms in Jackson County.

He had to throw away $4,700 in chard seed after learning it might have been contaminated with pollen from nearby GMO fields.

“I’m up against it here,” said Burr, the owner of the 10-acre Restoration Farm on Old Siskiyou Highway. “I have to make a living, and I have an absolutely constitutional right to engage in commerce.

“And if another company comes in from outside the area and prevents me from doing it, then my rights trump theirs.”

The proposal has enough signatures to make it on the May 2014 primary ballot, but those rights will be central to whether citizens will even be allowed to vote on the measure. Oregon’s right-to-farm law states that “farming and forest practices are critical to the economic welfare of this state,” and that it is “in the interest of the continued welfare of the state for farming and forest practices to be protected from legal actions that may be intended to limit [such practices].”

A ban on genetically modified crop farming would definitely be a limit. But then, giving GM crops free rein is sort of limiting to organic farmers, given the way GM crops have of spreading across property lines. Oregon has more than a year to figure this one out, but I’m guessing the fight will get pretty dirty.

Susie Cagle writes and draws news for Grist. She also writes and draws tweets for

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Adorable little Michigan town has big plans for cutting carbon emissions

Adorable little Michigan town has big plans for cutting carbon emissions

Ann Arbor is a small town in Michigan that, like so many small towns across the Midwest, has been hard-hit as industry has increasingly moved away or overseas. A pleasant place with small hills and tree-lined streets, Ann Arbor has never had any distinguishing characteristic: no classic architecture, no famous music hall, no museums of note. Just a standard small town with a little main street, like so many other thousands littering the region.

But now, at last, Ann Arbor has done something to help it stand out, something of which — after so many years! — it might rightly be proud.

mike_miley

This is the town’s train station! Adorbs.

From AnnArbor.com (it doesn’t even have a real newspaper!):

The Ann Arbor City Council took action Monday night to adopt a Climate Action Plan, a 188-page document that outlines dozens of ways to reduce the community’s carbon footprint.

Building on previous environmental goals set by the City Council, the new plan recommends three targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades.

That includes a goal of reducing the entire community’s emissions by 8 percent by 2015, by 25 percent by 2025, and by 90 percent by 2050 — all relative to 2000 baseline levels.

I mean, first of all it’s cute that such an insignificant town has a city council! Just goes to show you that democracy can take root in even the driest soil.

But, second, this is a good idea. The city’s plan includes improved energy efficiency, transitioning to renewable energy production (right now, I believe they use an old coal furnace out back of Doc Bridge’s), increasing food labeling so that residents know how much carbon dioxide was produced for each item, and reducing recycling and garbage pickup. Interesting steps that could probably only fly in such a small backwater.

The city has already seen a drop since 2000 in the amount of carbon dioxide produced in its commercial and industrial sectors — a success that it hopes to increase across the board.

“This is one more step in a long history of action that we’re taking and recognizing that a global problem like climate change is more than we can handle on our own,” [Council Member Chuck] Warpehoski said.

I mean, how great is that? It’s like when they have a big pledge drive on TV and a little kid sends in a quarter from her piggy bank because she wants to help. Ann Arbor, you are the cutest little thing. Let’s hope that this, if nothing else, gives you something to be proud of.

P.S.

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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Midwestern cities are setting new records for days without snow

Midwestern cities are setting new records for days without snow

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Even hoping for a snowman this large is optimistic.

Having lived in a snowy region, I certainly understand that snowfall can be a pain in the ass. It’s great while falling, to a point, and great when sitting in large drifts in the yard preventing egress to school and/or work, and then terrible when you have to shovel it or see it in dark, muddy piles by the side of the road or struggle out into it to go to school and/or work.

So this news is a mixed blessing: Cities across the Midwest are setting new records for the number of consecutive days without measurable snowfall.

Chicago is the most notable entrant on the new records list. The city is now in its 285th straight day without accumulation — passing the record of 280 set in 1994. (City government isn’t complaining, given how much it is saving on snow removal.) Champaign-Urbana, Ill., is at about 283. Lincoln and Omaha, Neb., are both in the low 300s. Des Moines broke a record set in 1889, entering its 285th day today.

NOAA

Snowfall over the last 72 hours.

Part of the problem is the drought, which affects snow as well as rain. And with much of the area still under severe drought conditions, even negligible precipitation is unlikely.

Drought Monitor

From USA Today:

National Weather Service program manager Jim Keeney said the country’s drought conditions this year are to blame for snow not sticking to the ground.

“At this point it doesn’t matter what falls from the sky, snow or rain,” he said. “To get precipitation would be beneficial for a chunk of the country.”

He also noted some cities that have seen snow are well below their averages this time of year.

Minneapolis usually has about 11 inches of snow on the ground by early December – but the measurement stands at less than an inch right now. Green Bay, Wis., is more than four inches off its normal snowfall.

The other problem is stubbornly high temperatures. This map shows the past week’s new high temperature records (red) and new high minimum temperatures (yellow). It’s a smattering, but still suggests warmer-than-average-temperatures across the region.

HAMweather

Even if precipitation fell, if it’s not cold enough, that water won’t fall as snow.

Why are temperatures so high and the drought so persistent? Well, that’s subject to rigorous, thoughtful debate. Scientists would likely suggest that they are symptomatic of a changing climate, though, of course, particular local weather variations are not uncommon. Republicans, on the other hand, would blame sun spots. So who knows.

In short: those kids in Illinois and Nebraska dreaming of a brownish-gray Christmas: your wish is likely to come true. But if you were also wishing for a few snow days? Better luck next year.

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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Forecast for the Northeast by 2070: Much warmer, much rainier winters

Forecast for the Northeast by 2070: Much warmer, much rainier winters

Yesterday, four places in the Northeast saw record high temperatures, two in New York and two in Massachusetts. Over the past week, the number of record temperatures was much higher, spread throughout western New York and into Rhode Island. That’s because, in the Northeast, late fall is the new late summer. And winter is the new fall.

According to scientists from the University of Massachusetts, that pessimistic assessment will probably be accurate for the region by 2070. From the press release:

A new high-resolution climate study by University of Massachusetts Amherst climate scientists, the first to apply regional climate models to examine likely near-term changes in temperature and precipitation across the Northeast United States, suggests temperatures are going to be significantly warmer in all seasons in the next 30 years, especially in winter. Also, they project that winters will be wetter, with more rain likely than snow. …

Overall, the researchers say the region is projected to warm by some 2 to 3 degrees C by mid century, with local changes approaching 3.5 degrees C in winter. Precipitation will go up as well, particularly in winter, but again not uniformly across the Northeast. …

“The only clear signal of change for precipitation is noted in winter, which appears to be heading toward wetter conditions, consistent with current trends,” [Michael Rawlins of the Climate System Research Center] says. Winter precipitation is projected to rise significantly above natural weather variability, around 12 to 15 percent greater from southwest Pennsylvania to northern Maine, with the exception of coastal areas, where projected increases are lower.

“But we shouldn’t expect more total seasonal snowfall,” he adds. “Combined with the model-projected temperature trends, much of the increase will occur as rain. We’re losing the snow season. It is contracting, with more rain in early and late winter.”

Having grown up in the Snow Belt — a region that traditionally gets massive lake-effect snowfall during the winter — I just want to say: That sucks.

Here is how the researchers think temperatures and precipitation will change. Both diagrams break down change by season, comparing a 1971-2000 baseline to 2041-2070.

Temperature increase, in Celsius. Click to embiggen.

Winter in much of New York state could be as much as 3 degrees C warmer. Meaning a 50-degree F day is now 55.5 degrees.

Precipitation change, in percent. Click to embiggen.

And across the entire Northeast: 14 percent more precipitation.

When I was a little kid, the city where I grew up was blanketed in a massive blizzard. That was 1977. One hundred years later, such a thing may be unheard of, in a region that might as well be renamed “the Rain Belt.”

The author, a while ago.

Source

Assessment of regional climate model simulation estimates over the northeast United States, Journal of Geophysical Research

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The 2012 Arctic report card: We’re going to need some summer school

The 2012 Arctic report card: We’re going to need some summer school

Each year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration releases a “report card” for how the Arctic is doing. This year, the Arctic gets an incomplete and a notice to be signed by its parents stating that it will require tutoring.

Warning: sad polar bears.

The report focuses on two primary findings. First, that the year’s record ice loss comes despite a relatively unremarkable year, temperature-wise.

A major finding of the Report Card 2012 is that numerous record-setting melting events occurred, even though, with the exception of a few limited episodes, Arctic-wide it was an unremarkable year, relative to the previous decade, for a primary driver of melting — surface air temperatures. From October 2011 through August 2012, positive (warm) temperature anomalies were relatively small over the central Arctic compared to conditions in recent years (2003-2010). Yet, in spite of these moderate conditions, new records were set for sea ice extent, terrestrial snow extent, melting at the surface of the Greenland ice sheet, and permafrost temperature.

A reminder: Here’s how this year’s ice melt compared to the past.

Pettit Climate Graphs

Click to embiggen.

The unusually severe melt despite non-unusual temperatures is in part due to the feedback loop of melt itself.

A major source of this momentum is the fact that changes in the sea ice cover, snow cover, glaciers and Greenland ice sheet all conspire to reduce the overall surface reflectivity of the region in the summer, when the sun is ever-present. In other words, bright, white surfaces that reflect summer sunlight are being replaced by darker surfaces, e.g., ocean and land, which absorb sunlight. These conditions increase the capacity to store heat within the Arctic system, which enables more melting — a positive feedback.

The other main finding is that the melt of ice in the Arctic region is affecting the food chain.

A second key point in Report Card 2012 is that changes in the Arctic marine environment are affecting the foundation of the food web in both the terrestrial and marine ecosystems. …

For instance, new satellite remote sensing observations show the near ubiquity of ice-edge blooms throughout the Arctic and the importance of seasonal sea ice variability in regulating primary production. These results suggest that previous estimates of annual primary production in waters where these under-ice blooms develop may be about ten times too low. At a higher trophic level, seabird phenology, diet, physiology, foraging behavior and survival rates have changed in response to higher water temperatures, which affect prey species.

Changes in the terrestrial ecosystem are exemplified by vegetation and mammals. The tundra continues to become more green and in some locations above-ground plant biomass has increased by as much as 26% since 1982.

That change in surface vegetation has caused the lemming population to drop, which, in turn, has done the same to the Arctic fox, a species near extinction. At the same time, red foxes are migrating north, providing additional competition for shrinking food supplies.

So: That’s grim.

The report is loaded with graphs featuring lines that typically start at the upper left corner and then plummet down and to the right. It also contains interesting graphics like this one, showing the effect that an August storm had on ice breakup and melt near Alaska.

NASA

Click to embiggen.

It’s probably not really accurate to call this document a report card. It’s far more of a crystal ball, sort of an SAT gauging how the future might look. And it doesn’t look very good.

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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