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Climate change fueled the Australia fires. Now those fires are fueling climate change.

Australia is in the midst of a devastating wildfire season that is being exacerbated by climate change. But the fires, which have been burning for months and could rage on for months to come, are also impacting the earth’s climate in several ways. Some of those impacts are well understood, while others lie at the frontiers of scientific research.

The most obvious climatic impact of the fires is that they’re spewing millions of tons of heat-trapping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, contributing to a vicious feedback loop of heat and flame. But the fires are also kicking up lots of soot, creating a smoke plume that’s circling the globe and could hasten the melting of any glaciers it comes in contact with. Preliminary evidence suggests some of that smoke has even made its way into an upper layer of the atmosphere called the stratosphere, buoyed aloft by rare, fire-induced thunderclouds. That, too, could have subtle but far-reaching climate impacts.

The fires, which started burning at the end of Australia’s winter, raged across the eastern half of the country throughout the spring and kicked into high gear in the country’s populous southeast over the last few weeks. They’re a disaster of an unprecedented nature.

Exceptionally hot, dry, gusty weather, brought on by recurring ocean and atmospheric dynamics and amplified by the warming and drying effects of human-caused climate change, has made it all too easy for an errant match or a lightning strike to explode into a raging inferno. Which is exactly what’s been happening. To date, the Guardian estimates that more than 26 million acres of land have burned nationwide — a region larger than Indiana. That includes over 12 million acres in New South Wales alone, a dubious new record for the state.

Much of the land that’s burning is covered in eucalyptus forest, although flames have also razed farmlands, grasslands, heathlands, and even some patches of Queensland’s subtropical rainforests, said Lesley Hughes, an ecologist and climate scientist at Macquarie University in Sydney. Whatever the fuel source, the net effect on the atmosphere is a massive release of ash, dust, and a cocktail of different gases, including carbon dioxide.

From the start of September through early January, the wildfires released around 400 million tons of CO2, which is roughly the same amount the UK emits in an entire year, according to Mark Parrington, a senior scientist with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. That’s not a record, he said, noting that considerably more carbon was emitted in 2011 and 2012, when very large fires raged across Australia’s northern territory and out west. But in New South Wales, this year’s wildfire emissions are off the charts.

By any measure, 400 million tons is a significant chunk of heat-trapping gases that will get mixed into the atmosphere, fueling more global warming. “It’s a great example of a positive feedback of climate change,” Hughes said. “It all comes together, unfortunately.”

In addition to carbon pollution, the fires are producing, well, regular air pollution. Since early November, vast smoke plumes have been wafting from eastern Australia all the way across the Pacific to the shores of South America. Just this week, Parrington said, forecasts from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service showed carbon monoxide from wildfire smoke creeping into the South Atlantic, a “really clear indicator of just how intense those fires have been.”

As the smoke circumnavigates the globe, some of it is passing over New Zealand’s alpine glaciers, turning them an eerie caramel color. Lauren Vargo, a glaciologist at Victoria University of Wellington who recently traveled through New Zealand’s Southern Alps, said that the soot is “really clear and obvious” and that “most of the ice on the South Island” is likely to have been impacted. Vargo is currently studying aerial photographs of New Zealand’s glaciers going back to the 1970s. In 40 years of records, she hasn’t seen anything comparable.

Soot on glaciers does more than spoil hiking photos. It reduces the reflectivity, or albedo, of ice, allowing it to absorb more sunlight, which can hasten its melt, said Marie Dumont, the deputy scientific director of the French Meteorological Service’s Snow Research Center. Exactly how much extra melt New Zealand’s browning glaciers will experience over the coming weeks and months is unclear, but the fact that the color change is occurring during the summer, when the sunlight is fiercer and there’s less chance of fresh snow falling, isn’t a good sign.

“It’s super likely that it will accelerate the melt” of these glaciers, Dumont said, “at least for this year.” She added that she wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar, albeit smaller effect on some Patagonian glaciers, given that the wildfire smoke is passing over South America.

“With ice, when we are seeing a color change, it means the change in albedo is about 10 percent,” Dumont said. “That’s already huge. Even a 2 to 3 percent change is a lot.”

Not all of the wildfire smoke is settling on the earth’s surface. More of it is lingering 3 to 4 miles up in the troposphere, Parrington said, scattering light and resulting in ominous reddish sunsets. Where the smoke is densest, it’s likely impacting the weather, said Robert Field, a climate and atmospheric scientist at Columbia University. Over hard-hit parts of Australia, Field said he wouldn’t be surprised if temperatures are 10 to 20 degrees F lower on dense smoke days as soot blocks incoming sunlight. He emphasized, however, that any such effects will be very temporary.

Where the smoke might have a more far-reaching impact is in the stratosphere, a very dry, very cold part of the atmosphere that starts around 6 miles up and is home to fast-flowing jet stream winds. Pollution from the earth’s surface doesn’t often reach the stratosphere, but recent satellite data shows that Australia’s wildfire smoke has hit this lofty mark, a fact that speaks to “the power and intensity of the fires,” according to Claire Ryder, a research fellow at Reading University’s meteorology department.

The most likely explanation, she said, is fire-induced thunderclouds.

Also known as pyrocumulonimbus clouds, these menacing-looking storms, which form when heat from intense wildfires creates a powerful updraft, can blast particles into the stratosphere in a manner similar to a volcanic eruption. Over the past few weeks, the wildfires in southeastern Australia have spawned a series of pyrocumulonimbus events that Neil Lareau, a fire weather researcher at the University of Nevada Reno, called “really superlative.”

The smoke that’s reached the stratosphere may linger there for weeks to months, Ryder said. But exactly what impact it’ll have is an open scientific question.

Volcanic eruptions, she said, shoot tiny sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. These particles reflect sunlight and can trigger temporary cooling at the earth’s surface. By contrast, fire smoke contains carbon-rich organic matter, including particles that are brown, gray, and even black in color. Black carbon, in particular, is a potent absorber of sunlight, and whether its presence in stratospheric soot will ultimately have a warming or cooling effect on the planet is unknown.

It will likely be years before scientists have teased out the full impact of this year’s wildfire season on the climate — first, the fires need to end. But it’s clear the effects have rippled far beyond Australia’s borders. As fire seasons become longer and more intense across the world, understanding this complex web of planetary impacts will only become more urgent.

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Climate change fueled the Australia fires. Now those fires are fueling climate change.

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Enjoy it while you can: Climate change is already hitting the Olympics hard

Hot Bods

Enjoy it while you can: Climate change is already hitting the Olympics hard

By on Aug 8, 2016Share

Sewage water isn’t the only thing competitors may be worrying about at the Rio Olympics: Hot temperatures and air pollution are already interfering with athletic performance. In a preliminary racewalking competition before the games began, 11 out of 18 competitors suffered from heat-related injuries. One athlete even passed out.

But this Olympics might be the best it gets. According to a report from Brazil’s Climate Observatory, as climate records keep falling, outdoor sports records could become much harder to break.

Already, marathon times are 2 minutes slower on average for every 10 degree Fahrenheit that temperature rises. In Rio, the problems are even more pronounced, because poor air quality from vehicle congestion makes high-performance outdoor sports difficult — even deadly. Each year, thousands of Rio’s citizens die from complications of air pollution, which is tied to lung cancer, heart attacks, strokes, and asthma.

“On hot days in polluted areas, it is healthier to go out and have a beer (in the shade) than to practice sport outdoors,” said Luzimar Teixeira, professor at the School of physical education at the University of São Paulo.

The report notes that competitors may be able to mitigate the effects of climate change through technological advances like high-tech equipment and clothing, but those advances are not likely to be available to athletes from less wealthy nations.

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Enjoy it while you can: Climate change is already hitting the Olympics hard

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Los Angeles and Beijing Are Teaming Up to Fight Global Warming

Mother Jones

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The story was originally published by the Guardian and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

China’s mega-cities and major US metropolitan areas will pledge swifter and deeper cuts in carbon pollution on Tuesday, shoring up a historic agreement between presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping.

Beijing and 10 other Chinese cities will agree to peak greenhouse gas emissions as early as 2020—a decade ahead of the existing target for the world’s biggest emitter, under a deal to be unveiled at a summit in Los Angeles on Tuesday.

Seattle will commit to go carbon neutral by 2050, with more than a dozen other major metropolitan areas in the US, and the entire state of California, pledging an 80 percent cut in emissions by mid-century. Atlanta, Houston, New York, Phoenix, and Salt Lake City also put forward new climate commitments.

“This is a big deal,” Eric Garcetti, the mayor of Los Angeles told the Guardian. “It is the heavy hitters. It is the biggest emitters, and it is the folks who are coming ready to act.”

The new, more ambitious goals from local governments in the world’s two biggest carbon polluting countries boosted hopes for critical climate change talks in Paris at the end of the year, and the prospects of avoiding a global temperature rise above 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), which would tip the world into dangerous and irreversible warming.

United Nations officials have acknowledged the pledges from countries to date will not cap warming at 2 degrees.

The announcement on Tuesday ratchets up a deal reached by presidents Obama and Xi last November to cut their carbon pollution. Xi promised at the time that China would reach peak emissions by 2030—or earlier.

China on its own was responsible for about 29 percent of the world’s carbon pollution in 2013, because of its heavy reliance on coal, about twice as much as the US.

At Tuesday’s summit, Chinese cities and provinces in the Alliance of Peaking Pioneer Cities will bring forward their date of peaking emissions.

Beijing, Guangzhou, and Zhenjiang will pledge to peak emissions by the end of 2020. Shenzhen and Wuhan will pledge to peak emissions by 2022, and Guiyang by 2025.

“The commitment of so many of its largest cities to early peaking highlights China’s resolve to take comprehensive action across all levels of government to achieve its national target,” the White House said in a fact sheet.

Brian Deese, a senior adviser to Obama, said the cities and provinces between them represented about 25 percent of China’s total urban emissions.

“This is important because the commitment to peaking mega-cities highlights that they are moving to achieve their national target as early as possible,” he told reporters on a conference call. “The two largest emitters in the world are taking seriously our commitment to meet the ambitious goals set last year.”

However, some of the most polluted cities in China, and the ones most dependent on coal, were not on that list.

Among other deals to be announced at the summit, Los Angeles will help clean up the choking air in Chinese cities.

Since the start of this year, Obama has set a blistering pace on climate change, with the administration rolling out new initiatives every few days.

The intense activity is intended in part to reassure the international community that Obama is committed to fighting climate change, despite the opposition from Republicans in Congress.

The commitments from China neutralize one of the Republicans’ main arguments against a climate change deal—that America on its own can achieve little, and that China is unwilling to act.

“The agreement between presidents Obama and Xi broke new ground and showed that in the developing world it is possible to make commitments to climate change—that you can go beyond saying we can’t make a commitment. We are still growing,” Garcetti said. “This new alliance of peaking pioneer cities will be able to push national goals aggressively.”

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Los Angeles and Beijing Are Teaming Up to Fight Global Warming

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