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Glenn Kessler Makes a Reasonable Point About What’s Serious and What’s Not

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Glenn Kessler, the Washington Post’s fact checker, wrote a column yesterday that tried to judge whether President Obama’s proposal to replace the sequester was truly a serious plan. Brendan Nyhan, in the course of criticizing Kessler for addressing a matter of opinion like this, points out that Kessler makes a distinction between two kinds of plans:

The first is whether each side has created a specific budget proposal that includes enough new revenue and/or budget cuts to avoid sequestration. The second is whether each side has acted in good faith to create and promote a compromise proposal that has a realistic chance of becoming law.

….Kessler wants to define “plan” using the second, more subjective definition above. In particular, he defines Obama’s plan, bizarrely, as “not really a plan” because it appears on the White House website but Obama has, to his mind, failed to make sufficient efforts to promote it.

Actually, I think this distinction is one worth making. When I criticized David Brooks a couple of weeks ago for not realizing that Obama has a sequester plan, I think that was legitimate. I expect columnists and pundits to do the minimal amount of research necessary to know the actual state of play on both sides regarding competing budget proposals.

At the same time, it really is true that Obama hasn’t exactly been jumping up and down to make sure everyone knows about his plan. Overall, Kessler’s criticism strikes me as pretty reasonable:

Obama has made passing reference to some of these spending-cut proposals in news conferences, but he has never made them the centerpiece of a high-profile speech. By contrast, he repeatedly—and very publicly—has stressed his interest in raising taxes on the wealthy. That’s why his ideas on entitlements remain a mystery to many Republicans—but they all know he wants to raise revenues.

The president’s outreach to Republican rank-and-file in the past week is a sign of seriousness, in that he is beginning to explain his ideas directly to the opposition.

However, the president has not directly taken on members of his own party; he also has not made the case for overhauling entitlement programs to the American people. Democratic lawmakers know that if the ideas just remain on a Web site, with little or no high-profile presidential push, they don’t have to take these ideas any more seriously than Republicans.

We judge people’s actual priorities all the time by assessing how strongly they promote them. That’s perfectly sensible, and it’s especially sensible when you’re dealing with politicians. Obama really does have a sequester plan, but it’s hardly surprising that few people think he’s very serious about it when he barely ever even mentions its details.

On a related note, though, I think Brendan makes a good point about whether something like this really belongs in a “fact checking” column. Kessler made it clear in his column that he agrees this isn’t a classic kind of fact check (“We try not to fact check opinions, and that seemed to be the core of the debate between Boehner and Sperling about what constitutes a ‘plan'”), and he didn’t award it any Pinocchios or gold stars or anything like that. Still, Brendan asks, “why not give him a separate column for punditry and preserve The Fact Checker column for, well, facts?” That sounds pretty sensible too.

UPDATE: The White House disagrees, pointing out to me that Obama has talked about his plan in three weekly addresses and one press conference recently, and press secretary Jay Carney has also done a press briefing on the plan.

Fair enough. But here’s the way Obama described his sequester replacement in one of the weekly addresses: “I believe we should do it in a balanced way — with smart spending cuts, entitlement reform, and tax reform. That’s my plan.” This is his usual formulation, and he doesn’t often go much beyond that. That’s kind of thin, no? Obviously I agree with Obama that Republican refusal to accept even a dime of new revenue is the real deal breaker here, but I still think Kessler has a point.

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Glenn Kessler Makes a Reasonable Point About What’s Serious and What’s Not

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Forest Service on Wildfires: Burn, Baby, Burn

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This story was originally published online by OnEarth magazine.

Last year, as hot, dry conditions fueled blazes across the West, nearly 10 million acres of US land were burned in what ended up being one of the costliest and most destructive wildfire seasons in the nation’s history. In the middle of all that, the US Forest Service, which manages nearly 200 million acres of public land, didn’t do itself any favors when it reversed nearly two decades of national policy and ordered an “aggressive initial attack” on all blazes within the agency’s jurisdiction, no matter how small or remote.

This year, it appears the agency is moving back toward what ecologists and fire scientists have considered the best practices for almost 40 years now: fires that are sparked in remote wilderness, where they aren’t hurting anyone, should be allowed to burn. That’s because fire, as a natural part of the environment, is good for the ecosystem. Some essential animal and plant species actually thrive in fire-ravaged landscapes, and by thinning out excess timber and clearing out dry underbrush, small forest fires can help prevent large and deadlier blazes in the future.

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Forest Service on Wildfires: Burn, Baby, Burn

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Why shouldn’t you eat horse?

Why shouldn’t you eat horse?

From Tesco to Burger King to IKEA, the horse-meat saga has gripped the western world for the past month. Horse hasn’t even made it into stateside meaty meals, but you wouldn’t know it from our outsize horror at the idea of chowing down on lovable ponies.

As someone who hasn’t eaten animals in a really long time, I’ve been kind of confused about all this. Why the moral panic about this four-legged mammal and not all the other ones that end up in sandwiches? This isn’t a modest proposal — I’m genuinely trying to understand.

“The unfolding drama around Europe’s horse-meat scandal is a case study in food politics and the politics of cultural identity,” Marion Nestle wrote at Food Politics. “They (other people) eat horse meat. We don’t. Most Americans say they won’t eat horse meat, are appalled by the very idea, and oppose raising horses for food, selling their meat, and slaughtering horses for any reason.”

Raising horses for meat was re-legalized in the U.S. in late 2011, against the wishes of the Humane Society, which argued that horses shouldn’t be eaten because they’re considered “companions.” But since then, no horse slaughterhouses have actually managed to open their doors in the U.S.; one would-be horse-meat purveyor recently sued the government for moving too slowly on inspections.

As Cord Jefferson points out at Gawker in a post entitled “You should eat horse,” horse meat is cheaper than beef, comparable in terms of calories and protein, and has way more omega-3 fatty acids. But he notes that there’s some legit cause for concern:

There are two very valid reasons to be upset at the thought of someone switching your beef with horse. The first is that consumers have a right to purchase food whose labels don’t lie to them. Secondly, not all horse meat is created equal. While some horses killed for food, particularly those in Europe, are safe for human consumption, many of the more than 100,000 American horses shipped outside our borders to be eaten annually are former racing animals whose flesh is laced with steroids and other chemicals as harmful as phenylbutazone. European food-safety officials started turning away American horse meat last year for fear it was too full of dangerous drugs, but this horse-as-beef scandal now calls into question how effective those officials actually are.

I think we can all agree that our food safety system sucks. But this horse-meat scandal also calls into question our deep cultural food biases.

As a nation, we eat a hell of a lot of animals, more than any other country on Earth. We eat lab-produced foods, fast-food junk, and bugs. We eat mislabeled seafood; recent studies on widespread seafood fraud have gotten attention, but strip-mall sushi restaurants don’t appear to have experienced a dropoff in popularity. So why the uproar over horse?

Just think how much worse this could be, folks. German politicians have suggested distributing horse-tainted products to the poor. And in South Africa, burgers and sausages have been found to contain water buffalo, donkey, and goat. Then again, maybe buffalo and goat would be considered offal-esque delicacies in American bistros.

Susie Cagle writes and draws news for Grist. She also writes and draws tweets for

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Montana Still Trying to Legalize Gay Sex

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On Wednesday, by a 38 to 11 vote*, the Montana state Senate passed SB 107, a bill to “generally revise deviate sexual conduct laws.” Put another way: They voted to decriminalize homosexuality.

Although the 2002 Supreme Court case Lawrence v. Texas ruled that state laws prohibiting sodomy are unconstitutional, the effect has been slow to sink in. Montana is one of four states, along with Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, that still have laws on the books specifically outlawing gay sex. Ten more states—Idaho, Utah, Michigan, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and (obviously) Florida—maintain a blanket prohibition on sodomy for persons of all sexual orientations.

The laws have stayed on the books partly because of institutional inertia; culling unenforceable laws isn’t exactly the most urgent issue facing cash-strapped states. But when advocates have generated legislative momentum to repeal the sodomy statutes, they’ve invariably been thwarted. As I reported in 2011, lawmakers in Texas have repeatedly sought to purge the state’s anti-sodomy law from the books without success. (It likely doesn’t help matters that GOP Gov. Rick Perry believes Lawrence was wrongly decided.) In 2012, Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback, also a Republican, formed an Office of the Repealer to delete unnecessary laws from the state books, but pointedly left out his state’s invalidated ban on sodomy.

This isn’t the only notable LGBT legislation up for consideration. Another bill before the legislature would extend the state’s anti-discrimination protections to gays and lesbians for the first time—a more substantive reform that advocates hope would serve as a bulwark against bullying.

But neither proposal stands much chance of becoming law in 2013. As the Billings Gazette notes, a bill to eliminate the sodomy statute passed the Senate in 2011 only to fail in the house. “We are expecting this bill to go to House judiciary, which is a very ideologically driven committee, and we expect it to die in that committee,” says Jamee Greer, a lobbyist for the Montana Human Rights Network, an LGBT equality group. “They’re not showing a lot of respect to the LGBT community and I don’t expect them to pass 107.”

*Among the 10 Republicans voting against it: This guy.

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Montana Still Trying to Legalize Gay Sex

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Why the fracking boom may actually be an economic bubble

Why the fracking boom may actually be an economic bubble

Fracking proponents like to use an evocative economic metaphor in talking about their industry: boom. The natural gas boom. Drilling is exploding in North Dakota and Texas and Pennsylvania. Only figuratively so far, but who knows what the future holds.

The Post Carbon Institute, however, suggests in a new report [PDF] that another metaphor would be more apt: a bubble, like the bubbles of methane that seep into water wells and then burst.

PCI presents the argument in its most basic form at ShaleBubble.org:

[T]he so-called shale revolution is nothing more than a bubble, driven by record levels of drilling, speculative lease & flip practices on the part of shale energy companies, fee-driven promotion by the same investment banks that fomented the housing bubble, and by unsustainably low natural gas prices. Geological and economic constraints — not to mention the very serious environmental and health impacts of drilling — mean that shale gas and shale oil (tight oil) are far from the solution to our energy woes.

PCI’s strongest argument may be on the rapid depletion of drill sites. The case is made using the data in this graph, showing the amount of oil extracted over time from wells in the Bakken formation in Montana and North Dakota.

PCI

Bakken wells exhibit steep production declines over time. Figure 63 illustrates a type decline curve compiled from the most recent 66 months of production data. The first year decline is 69 percent and overall decline in the first five years is 94%. This puts average Bakken well production at slightly above the category of “stripper” wells in a mere six years, although the longer term production declines are uncertain owing to the short lifespan of most wells.

If five years after a well is drilled it’s only returning 6 percent of its peak production, it becomes harder to justify spending money to operate the well. With less production, more wells need to be drilled.

This steep rate of depletion requires a frenetic pace of drilling, just to offset declines. Roughly 7,200 new shale gas wells need to be drilled each year at a cost of over $42 billion simply to maintain current levels of production. And as the most productive well locations are drilled first, it’s likely that drilling rates and costs will only increase as time goes on.

This is another version of the production problem in the coal industry, but on a much shorter timeline. Wells run out, requiring more wells, fast.

PCI also argues that the low price of fracked fuels, usually attributed to the abundance of supply, is unsustainable too. Taking issue with claims that shale production is a job creator and economy builder, the organization wrote a separate report [PDF] outlining how it believes the marketplace has been manipulated.

Wall Street promoted the shale gas drilling frenzy, which resulted in prices lower than the cost of production and thereby profited [enormously] from mergers & acquisitions and other transactional fees.
U.S. shale gas and shale oil reserves have been overestimated by a minimum of 100% and by as much as 400-500% by operators according to actual well production data filed in various states.

The timing of this report is important. As we noted last week, natural gas prices (particularly for electricity producers) are again increasing. Natural gas has been touted as a bridge fuel from carbon-heavy coal to renewables. If the price of natural gas is being kept artificially low and if production is necessarily going to taper off, that clung-to promise looks remarkably shaky.

Or, to use PCI’s original analogy: The bubble may be about to burst.

Fracking well in Scott Township, Penn.

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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2013 will be a banner year for farm profits, according to analysis that ignores the drought

2013 will be a banner year for farm profits, according to analysis that ignores the drought

2012 was a brutal year for American farmers. The massive drought meant that the Department of Agriculture paid out $15 billion in crop insurance; prices of staple crops skyrocketed as yields plummeted.

It appears, however, that this was the darkness before the dawn. A new estimate from the USDA suggests that 2013 will be the most profitable year for farmers in four decades. From The Wall Street Journal:

The Department of Agriculture projected in a report Monday that net farm income in the U.S. will reach $128.2 billion in 2013—the highest since 1973 when adjusted for inflation and the highest on record on a non-adjusted basis.

The rosier outlook is driven by expectations farmers will grow more corn and soybeans after last year’s drought. Analysts predict increases in production will more than offset any price declines and rising costs, with the agency seeing corn stockpiles rising by more than 2 billion bushels.

The forecast also reflects a continued boom in the farm belt initially fueled by rising global demand for grains and increased mandates for corn-based ethanol.

And the first thing those farmers will do is repay the USDA for its crop insurance outlays in 2012, I assume. After all, it was God who made a farmer, not the USDA.

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There is, however, a great big caveat in the government’s predictions.

The USDA’s forecast for 2013 is based on historical yield averages and doesn’t take into account current weather conditions. Parts of the Midwest, such as Indiana and Illinois, have seen a return in moisture, but much of the Great Plains, including Nebraska and Kansas, remain in drought.

“If we don’t get some above-normal rainfall through the next few months, we are going to enter the [growing] season very, very dry,” said Steve Nelson, president of the Nebraska Farm Bureau, who grows corn and soybeans in the south central part of the state.

An estimate in January suggested that the 2012 drought has already turned into the 2013 drought, and is likely to last until April.

So how much crop insurance should we put you all down for?

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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Quote of the Day: Come Visit Sunny Germany!

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From Fox Business reporter Shibani Joshi, explaining why Germany, whose capital is at about the same latitude as Edmonton, has adopted solar power more successfully than the United States:

They’re a smaller country, and they’ve got lots of sun. Right? They’ve got a lot more sun than we do.

Let’s examine this step by step. No, wait. Let’s not. Let’s just allow this to sit here in all its glory, while you let it sink in. Then, if you still want to examine it step by step, check out Steve Benen, who has far more stamina than I do.

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Poll: Drone Strikes on American Terror Suspects No Longer Popular

A poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University released Thursday finds that a plurality of Americans think drone strikes on American citizens suspected of terrorism are illegal. According to the poll, 48 percent of Americans think it is illegal to “target US citizens living in other countries with drones,” while 24 percent think it is legal. The poll nevertheless finds majority approval for the use of drone attacks against “people and other targets deemed to be a threat to the US” whether carried out by the CIA or the military, as long as those targets are not American citizens.

The poll’s findings seem to be at odds with another survey published last year by the Washington Post, which found that an overwhelming majority of Americans, 89 percent, approve of the use of drones to kill terror suspects abroad, and of those who approve 79 percent also believe it is legal to kill those terror suspects if they are American citizens. Different wording of the relevant questions in each poll may account for the disparate results: The Fairleigh Dickinson poll asks if “Americans living abroad” can be legally targeted, while the Washington Post survey asks whether “suspected terrorists” who “are American citizens living in other countries” can be legally targeted. (Most people think of unmanned drones when they think of targeted killing, but targeted killings can be carried out by other means. The government can also send human assassins to do the job, or fire missiles from ships or manned aircraft.)

Polls are most accurate when aggregated, so it’s still difficult to know exactly how Americans feel about targeted killing. It is possible, however, that increased media scrutiny of the practice has lead to a shift in public opinion.

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Alaska ignores climate change, so Iditarod dogs will just need to evolve thinner coats

Alaska ignores climate change, so Iditarod dogs will just need to evolve thinner coats

I’ll start with the weirdest part of this story: Alaska has a global warming task force that was started by none other than Sarah Palin. You probably remember Sarah Palin; her environmental streak is probably not what you remember best.

It doesn’t matter anyway, because the task force doesn’t meet anymore. From the Guardian:

The taskforce was established by Sarah Palin during her time as governor, in an effort to protect a state that is acutely vulnerable to climate change.

Alaska, like other Arctic regions, is warming at a much faster rate than the global average. Last summer saw record loss of Arctic sea ice.

However, the rapid-response team has not met since March 2011 and its supervisory body, the Sub-Cabinet on Climate Change, has gone even longer without meeting. …

The state government, in a letter from 1 February, said the sub-cabinet had produced three strategy documents since that February 2010 meeting, but declined to release them.

This requires snow.

Eh, no bigs. Why would Alaska need to worry about the warming climate? It’s not like the state’s signature sporting event is threatened by warmer weather. Now, an excerpt from “Warm Weather Forces Changes Ahead of Iditarod Race”:

Several Iditarod qualifying events have been postponed, rerouted or canceled because of a lack of snow. The John Beargrease sled dog race, a trek of some 400 miles in northern Minnesota, postponed its start to March 10 from Jan. 27. In Alaska, the Don Bowers Memorial 200/300, the Sheep Mountain Lodge 150 and the Knik 200 have been canceled. The Copper Basin 300 in Glennallen, Alaska, had to cut its trail for several teams by 25 miles because there was not enough snow at the finish line; the mushers finished the race with their hats and gloves off and jackets unzipped.

“That was crazy with the warm weather,” said Zack Steer, one of the race’s organizers. “It was such a drastic change from last year, but the trail at the end was dirt. It wasn’t safe.”

That’s not the craziest quote. This is.

“It definitely has us concerned,” Erin McLarnon, a musher and spokeswoman for the Iditarod, said of the long-term effects of the weather. She is among the mushers breeding dogs with thinner coats, more suitable for warmer weather.

She is breeding new dogs to deal with climate change. We live in a world in which it is easier to breed new types of animals than it is to cut back on greenhouse gas emissions.

The Iditarod is the least of the state’s problems. It is seeing tropical disease outbreaks, epic storms, rising oceans, and thawing permafrost. You can breed dogs with thinner coats and put wheels on sleds. It’s trickier to stop the ocean from flooding 6,500 miles of coast.

I’m about to say something I never thought I’d say and which I’ll never say again: What Alaska could use now is a little more Sarah Palin.

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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The Post Office Is Tired of Begging Congress for Attention

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The Postal Service announced today that it plans to end Saturday delivery starting on August 1. Congress hasn’t actually approved this or anything, but apparently USPS is going to do it anyway and dare Congress to stop them. I like Felix Salmon’s take on this:

The organization does actually have a detailed plan for becoming fully self-reliant over the next few yearsâ&#128;¦The big problem is simple, but huge: Congress isn’t playing along, and instead is just making matters worse, unhelpfully micromanaging everything from postage rates to delivery schedules to health-care contributions.

That’s why I love the idea of the Post Office doing something that’s clearly illegal, putting the ball squarely in Congress’s courtâ&#128;¦Today’s announcement says to me that relations between the Post Office and Congress have deteriorated so much that the Post Office has given up on getting Congressional buy-in for its plans. At the same time, the plans are necessary (sufficient is a different question) if the Post Office is going to survive for decades to come. And so the Post Office is just going ahead with what needs to be done, and has decided to treat Congress as an adversary, rather than as a key partner in its evolution.

Trillion dollar coins, recess appointments, endless filibusters, debt ceiling hostage taking, and now the Post Office telling Congress to take a hike. Maybe this is our future: Congress has become so dysfunctional that other agencies are going to start shrugging their shoulders and just getting on with business. If Congress wants to stop them, let ’em try. At least it will force them to pay attention.

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