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Rhetoric vs. Reality, Police Safety Edition

Mother Jones

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Here’s the rhetoric:

Scott Walker: “In the last six years under President Obama, we’ve seen a rise in anti-police rhetoric….This rhetoric has real consequences for the safety of officers who put their lives on the line for us and hampers their ability to serve the communities that need their help.”

Ted Cruz: “Cops across this country are feeling the assault. They’re feeling the assault from the president, from the top on down….That is fundamentally wrong, and it is endangering the safety and security of us all.”

Donald Trump: “I know cities where police are afraid to even talk to people because they want to be able to retire and have their pension….And then you wonder what’s wrong with our cities. We need a whole new mind-set.”

And here’s the reality. During the George Bush administration, police fatalities per 100 million residents averaged 58 per year (54 if you exclude 2001). During the Obama administration, that’s dropped to 42.

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Rhetoric vs. Reality, Police Safety Edition

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Marx and Keynes Put Economics on the Map, and They Can Take It Right Off Again

Mother Jones

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Over at PostEverything, Dan Drezner wonders why economics has managed to wield such an outsized influence within the social sciences. His strongest point—or at least the one he spends the most time on—is that economists “share a strong consensus about the virtues of free markets, free trade, capital mobility and entrepreneurialism.” This makes them catnip to the plutocrat class, and therefore the favored social scientists of influential people everywhere.

Fine, says Adam Ozimek, but what about liberal economists? “Why is Paul Krugman famous? Robert Shiller? Joe Stiglitz? Jeff Sachs? ‘To please plutocrats’ is not a good theory.” And this: “Why do liberal think tanks with liberal donors supporting liberal causes hire so many economists? To please plutocrats?”

I think Drezner and Ozimek each make good points. Here’s my amateur historical explanation that incorporates both.

The first thing to understand is that in the 19th century, economists were no more influential than other social scientists. Folks like David Ricardo and Thomas Malthus were certainly prominent, but no more so than, say, Herbert Spencer or Max Weber. What’s more, economics was a far less specialized field then. John Stuart Mill had a strong influence on economics, but was he an economist? Or a philosopher? Or a political scientist? He was all of those things.

So what happened to make economists so singularly influential in the 20th century? I’ll toss out two causes: Karl Marx and John Maynard Keynes.

The fight for and against communism defined the second half of the 20th century, and Marx had always identified economics as the underpinning of his socio-historical theories. Outside of the battlefield, then, this made the most important conflict of the time fundamentally a fight over economics. In the public imagination, if not within the field itself, the fight between communism and free markets became identified as the face of economics, and this made it the most important branch of the social sciences.

Then Keynes upped the ante. In the same spirit that Whitehead called philosophy a series of footnotes to Plato, economics in the second half of the 20th century was largely a series of footnotes to Keynes. Rightly or wrongly, he became the poster child for liberals who wanted to justify their belief in an activist government and the arch nemesis of conservatives who wanted no such thing. In the same way that communism was the biggest fight on the global stage, the fight over the size and scope of government was the biggest fight on the domestic stage. And since this was fundamentally a fight over economics, the field of economics became ground zero for domestic politics in advanced economies around the world.

And that’s why economists became so influential among both plutocrats and the lefty masses. Sure, it’s partly because economists use lots of Greek letters and act like physicists, but mostly it’s because that window dressing was used in service of the two most fundamental geo-socio-political conflicts of the late 20th century.

So does that mean economics is likely to lose influence in the future? After all, free market capitalism and mixed economies are now triumphant. Compared to the 20th century, we’re now arguing over relative table scraps. And, as Drezner points out, the profession of economics has hardly covered itself with glory in the opening years of the 21st century. Has their time has come and gone?

Maybe. I mean, how should I know? Obviously there’s a lot of inertia here, and economics will remain pretty important for a long time. But the biggest fights are gone and economists have an embarrassing recent track record of failure. If the rest of the social sciences want to mount an assault on the field, this would probably be a pretty good time to do it.

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Marx and Keynes Put Economics on the Map, and They Can Take It Right Off Again

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Donald Trump Has Lost Between $1 and $6 Billion Over His Business Career

Mother Jones

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This post is about Donald Trump—sorry!—but the topic is something I’ve been a little curious about for a while: how much of Trump’s wealth is inherited vs. earned? The basics are easy: Trump’s father turned over control of the family real estate business to him in 1974. At the time, it was worth about $200 million. Trump would eventually inherit one-fifth of this, so his share of the company was worth about $40 million to start with.

Over at National Journal, Shirish Dáte estimates that if Trump had put that money into an index fund of S&P 500 stocks, it would be worth about $3 billion today. If he’d taken the $200 million he was reportedly worth in 1982 and done the same, he’d be worth $8 billion. So how does that compare to Trump’s actual net worth? Here’s Dáte:

“Every year, Trump shares a lot of information with us that helps us get to the figures we publish. But he also consistently pushes for a higher net worth—especially when it comes to the value of his personal brand,” Forbes reporter Erin Carlyle wrote this June, explaining the magazine’s assessment that Trump was worth $4.1 billion, less than half of his claimed net worth. A subsequent review by Bloomberg found he was worth $2.9 billion.

….Perhaps the most deeply researched account of his wealth is a decade old: the book TrumpNation, by former New York Times journalist Tim O’Brien, who found three sources close to Trump who estimated that he was worth between $150 million and $250 million….Trump wound up suing O’Brien for defamation, claiming his book had damaged his business. The suit was eventually dismissed, but not before Trump sat for a deposition in which he admitted that he routinely exaggerated the values of his properties.

….That 2007 deposition also revealed that in 2005, two separate banks had assessed Trump’s assets and liabilities before agreeing to lend him money. One, North Fork Bank, decided he was worth $1.2 billion, while Deutsche Bank found he was worth no more than $788 million.

So….at a guess, Trump is worth somewhere in the neighborhood $2 billion in 2015. Anything above that is based on valuations of his personal brand—which might be worth something in theory, but buys no jet fuel or campaign ads. In terms of actual, tangible net worth, he’s worth considerably less than the $3 billion (or $8 billion) he’d be worth if he’d just dumped his share of the family fortune into a Vanguard fund.

In other words, over the course of the past four decades, Trump’s business acumen has netted him somewhere between -$1 billion and -$6 billion. Ouch. Virtually every person in America can claim a better financial record than that.

Now, in fairness, Dáte’s numbers assume that all dividends are reinvested, which would mean Trump had no income to live on. Obviously he spends a fair amount every year, and if you take that into account the Vanguard strategy wouldn’t look as good. Plus, of course, there’s the fact that Dáte is a THIRD-RATE LOSER who is JEALOUS of Trump’s BRILLIANT CAREER and does anything he can to DEMEAN Trump’s SUCCESS. So take him with a grain of salt.

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Donald Trump Has Lost Between $1 and $6 Billion Over His Business Career

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Iran Will Always Be Three Months Away From Having Nukes

Mother Jones

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Paul Waldman writes about the asymmetric political risks that Democrats and Republicans face over the Iran nuclear deal:

If the agreement proves to be a failure — let’s say that Iran manages to conduct a nuclear weapons program in secret, then announces to the world that they have a nuclear weapon — it will indeed be front-page news, and the Democrats who supported the deal might suffer grave political consequences. So in order to vote yes, they had to look seriously at the deal and its alternatives, and accept some long term political peril.

By contrast, there probably is less long term risk for Republicans in opposing the deal.

It’s true that if the deal does achieve its goals, it will be added to a list of things on which Republicans were spectacularly wrong, but which led them to change their opinions not a whit….Iraq War….Bill Clinton’s tax-increasing 1993 budget….George Bush’s tax cuts….But if the deal works as intended, what will be the outcome be? Iran without nuclear weapons, of course, but that is a state of being rather than an event. There will be no blaring headlines saying, “Iran Still Has No Nukes — Dems Proven Right!” Five or ten years from now, Republicans will continue to argue that the deal was dreadful, even if Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been contained.

In a way, it’s actually worse than this. Even if Iran doesn’t get nukes there will be endless opportunities to raise alarms that it’s going to happen any day now. Israeli leaders have been warning that Iran is three months away from a nuclear bomb for over two decades. There will always be new studies, new developments, and new conflicts that provide excuses for hysterical Fox News segments telling us we’re all about to die at the hands of the ayatollahs. To see this in action, just take a look at Obamacare. All the top line evidence suggests it’s working surprisingly well. Maybe better than even its own supporters thought it would. But that hasn’t stopped a torrent of alarming reports that provide countless pretexts for predicting Obamacare’s imminent doom. Premiums are going up 40 percent! Workers’ hours are being slashed! You won’t be able to see your family doctor anymore! Death panels!

So have no worries. Iran could be nuclear free in 2050 and Bill Kristol’s grandkids will still be warning everyone else’s grandkids that the ayatollahs are this close to getting a bomb. It’s kind of soothing, in a way, like a squeaky door that you’d miss if you ever oiled it.

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Iran Will Always Be Three Months Away From Having Nukes

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So How Did My Experiment Turn Out?

Mother Jones

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On Monday I announced that this was Experiment Week. Today is Saturday, and Science™ has spoken.

It turns out that I’m kinda sorta OK for about four or five hours in the morning. As long as I rest every hour or so, I can indeed write a couple of light blog posts, take a walk around the block, and shower and shave. That’s the good news.

However, the deadline for my second walk of the day is about 2 pm. On Monday I walked at 5 pm, and when I was done I felt like I’d just run a marathon. It took me all evening to recover. On Tuesday I walked at 4 pm. This time it felt like I’d run a mile, and I recovered in about an hour. Basically, I’ve learned that my body wants to crash at about 2 pm every day. Maybe I doze for a couple of hours, maybe I actually sleep a bit, but either way I’m good for nothing. By 5 pm I’m back up, but all my chemo side effects have started to get worse. The neuropathy is worse, the nausea is worse, and the fatigue is worse. This continues until bedtime, getting steadily worse the entire time.

So that’s that. I have the energy for light activity from about 7 am to 2 pm. Then I collapse, and when I get up I spend the next five or six hours enduring crappy side effects of the chemo. Oh, and this includes a terrible taste in my mouth that never goes away. Ugh.

But it could be worse! In fact, it’s been worse before. Still, it’s frustrating that recovery seems to come so slowly. I don’t know if I’ll be spending another week like this or another couple of months. All I can do is wait and see.

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So How Did My Experiment Turn Out?

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Ireland Is Latest Country to Approve Gay Marriage

Mother Jones

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I don’t have anything profound to say about this, but it’s just a nice piece of good news. And I could use some good news these day:

Irish voters have resoundingly backed amending the constitution to legalize gay marriage, leaders on both sides of the Irish referendum declared Saturday after the world’s first national vote on the issue.

As the official ballot counting continued, the only question appeared to be how large the “yes” margin of victory from Friday’s vote would be. Analysts said the “yes” support was likely to exceed 60 percent nationally when official results are announced later Saturday.

Congratulations to Ireland. This is both a human and humane gesture in a world that could use more of them.

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Ireland Is Latest Country to Approve Gay Marriage

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Friday Cat Blogging Counterpoint: I Don’t Care About Your Cute Cat

Mother Jones

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While Kevin Drum is focused on getting better, we’ve invited some remarkable writers, thinkers, and Friends of Kevin to contribute posts and keep the conversation going. Today, in the spirit of open debate, we interrupt our regularly scheduled cat blogging for a counterpoint by writer, editor, podcaster, speaker, chartisan, newsletterer, and former MoJoer Ann Friedman.

I don’t like cats. And it’s even worse than you think: I don’t like dogs, either. In fact, I have virtually no interest in animals at all—even eating them. I am really happy that you are comforted by the presence of your dog. I am thrilled that you and your cat “rescued each other.” But, no, I do not want to cuddle with or even see photos of your pet. And please don’t bother sending me that video of baby red pandas cuddling each other or a lion reuniting with its long-lost human pal.

I feel nothing.

On this point, especially among my feminist peers on the internet, I am in the minority. In honor of the man who pioneered Friday cat blogging, I’m going to reckon with the fact that I am just not very interested in furry creatures. The last time I wrote about this was seven years ago, in ancient internet times when I was a blogger for Feministing and dared to do some “Friday anti-catblogging.” The commenters weren’t having it. “I honestly think that there is a valuable conversation to be had about the correlation of cat-hating with misogyny,” one wrote.

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Friday Cat Blogging Counterpoint: I Don’t Care About Your Cute Cat

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Rand Paul’s Latest Fundraiser Now Underway

Mother Jones

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I see from the intertubes that Sen. Rand Paul has begun another talking filibuster. This time it’s to protest any legislation that extends the NSA’s ability to access metadata from phone calls, even if the data is held by the phone companies and available only by court order. Paul’s filibuster will annoy a lot of people, but in the end I think I agree, for once, with John McCain: “He’ll get his headline and then we’ll move on.”

That’s pretty much the lay of the land. Paul will chew up some floor time, which might end up eating into Memorial Day weekend for the Senate, but since virtually no one agrees with his position, it’s simply not going to accomplish anything. I’m even a little skeptical about the headlines. Frankly, once you’ve done the Jimmy Stewart bit once, its entertainment value starts to plummet.

On the other hand, Paul seems to be mostly treating this as another great fundraising opportunity, and it might very well be. But that’s probably all it will be.

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Rand Paul’s Latest Fundraiser Now Underway

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Eight Good Lessons About Health Care — Plus a Ninth

Mother Jones

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Over at Vox today, Sarah Kliff and Julia Belluz have a list of eight things they now do differently after reporting on health care for a combined decade between them. It’s a great list, and unless I missed something I think I agree with every word on it. Even item #3, which has been, um, a bit of a challenge for me over the past six months.

Of course, as with all collections of advice, even good ones, this one has an underlying ninth item: don’t be an idiot. Sometimes guidelines need to be broken. But they’re still good to keep in mind.

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Eight Good Lessons About Health Care — Plus a Ninth

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Big Banks Plead Guilty to Collusion, But Fines are Pocket Change

Mother Jones

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Five of the planet’s biggest banks have finally been forced to plea guilty to collusion charges in the foreign exchange market:

The Justice Department forced four of the banks — Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Barclays and the Royal Bank of Scotland — to plead guilty to antitrust violations in the foreign exchange market as part of a scheme that padded the banks’ profits and enriched the traders who carried out the plot….Underscoring the collusive nature of their contact, which often occurred in online chat rooms, one group of traders called themselves “the cartel,” an invitation-only club where stakes were so high that a newcomer was warned, “Mess this up and sleep with one eye open.” To carry out the scheme, one trader would typically build a huge position in a currency and then unload it at a crucial moment, hoping to move prices. Traders at the other banks agreed to, as New York State’s financial regulator put it, “stay out of each other’s way.”

….The guilty pleas, which the banks are expected to enter in federal court later on Wednesday, represent a first in a financial industry that has been dogged by numerous scandals and investigations since the 2008 financial crisis. Until now, banks have either had their biggest banking units or small subsidiaries plead guilty.

….As part of the criminal deal with the Justice Department, a fifth bank, UBS, will plead guilty to manipulating the London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, a benchmark rate that underpins the cost of trillions of dollars in credit cards and other loans.

The total fine is about $5 billion, and it’s about damn time this happened. Unfortunately, I assume that a billion dollars each is basically pocket change that’s already been fully reserved on their balance sheets. Needless to say, not a single dime of this will hit the actual people running the banks, who couldn’t possibly be expected to know that any of this stuff was going on. They were too busy drinking their lunches and remodeling their corner offices to know what a few rogue traders on the 23rd floor were doing. The Times confirms that life will go on as usual:

For the banks, though, life as a felon is likely to carry more symbolic shame than practical problems. Although they could be technically barred by American regulators from managing mutual funds or corporate pension plans or perform certain other securities activities, the banks have obtained waivers from the Securities and Exchange Commission that will allow them to conduct business as usual. In fact, the cases were not announced until after the S.E.C. had time to act.

It’s good to be king.

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Big Banks Plead Guilty to Collusion, But Fines are Pocket Change

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