Tag Archives: approval-rating

Trump Is Not Doing Well In the Polls

Mother Jones

Pew offers up the following comparison today:

Well, at least Trump is #1 at something. In related news, I was looking at Pollster yesterday and found something odd. I’ve mentioned before that although Trump’s disapproval rating has gone up since Inauguration Day, so has his approval rating. But it turns out that if you look only at live phone polls—generally considered the highest quality polls—his approval rating has actually plummeted by six points:

I know that there are differences between phone, IVR, and Internet polls, and IVR polls are generally considered pretty high quality these days. But the IVR/Internet polls show Trump’s approval up four points, while the live phone polls show his approval down six points. That’s a net ten point difference, which is huge.

It’s early days, and maybe it’s just a matter of small sample sizes or something. But I wonder what’s really going on with Trump’s approval rating?

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Trump Is Not Doing Well In the Polls

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Obama’s Approval Rating Is Remarkably Steady No Matter What Happens

Mother Jones

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Jonathan Bernstein writes today that President Obama’s approval rating has pulled ahead of George Bush’s approval rating at this point in his presidency. “This is not to say Obama is doing well,” he warns. “Unless his recent improvement gathers steam, he’s going to be a drag on Democrats in November, though he won’t be as big a drag as Bush was for his party in the 2006 midterms.”

This prompted me to click the link and check out Obama’s approval rating in the HuffPollster’s polling average. This may not be a surprise to any of you, but I don’t follow Obama’s polls very closely and I was a bit startled by how consistent his ratings have been. The chart below shows Obama’s average approval over the past four years. It hovers around 47 percent, and it hasn’t moved more than four points above or below that in the entire time. Right now he’s about three points below his long-term mean, and as usual, he’s reverting to it after sinking a bit during his annus horribilis of 2013.

I don’t really have a point to make here. I’m just surprised that his numbers have been so steady for so long, so I thought I’d share.

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Obama’s Approval Rating Is Remarkably Steady No Matter What Happens

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