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This Is What Would Happen If the Rest of the World Ate the Way America Does

Mother Jones

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This story was originally published by Reveal from the Center for Investigative Reporting and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. Subscribe to the podcast and learn more at revealnews.org.

If the rest of the world ate like Americans, the planet would have run out of fresh water 15 years ago, according to the world’s largest food company.

In private, Nestle executives told US officials that the world is on a collision course with doom because Americans eat too much meat, and now, other countries are following suit, according to a secret US report titled “Tour D’Horizon with Nestle: Forget the Global Financial Crisis, the World Is Running Out of Fresh Water.”

Producing a pound of meat requires a tremendous amount of water because farmers use tons of crops such as corn and soy to feed each animal, which require tens of thousands of gallons of water to grow. It is far more efficient when people eat the corn or soy directly.

The planet is a on a “potentially catastrophic” course as billions of people in countries such as India and China begin eating more beef, chicken and pork like their counterparts in Western countries, according to the 2009 report released by WikiLeaks and first reported by Reveal at The Center for Investigative Reporting in a cache of water-related classified documents. The Chinese now eat about half as much meat as Americans, Australians and Europeans, a figure that continues to rapidly rise as more Chinese are lifted out of poverty and into the middle class.

And Nestle—which makes Gerber baby food, Nescafe, Hot Pockets, DiGiorno pizza, Lean Cuisine, Stouffer’s, Nestea, Dreyer’s and Haagen-Dazs ice cream—is deeply concerned.

Here are some of the takeaways, with key quotes from the secret report:

Global water shortages are just around the corner.

“Nestle thinks one-third of the world’s population will be affected by fresh water scarcity by 2025, with the situation only becoming more dire thereafter and potentially catastrophic by 2050.”

Major regions, including in the United States, are being drained of their underground aquifers.

“Problems with be severest in the Middle East, northern India, northern China, and the western United States.”

Excessive meat-eating is driving water depletion.

“Nestle starts by pointing out that a calorie of meat requires 10 times as much water to produce as a calorie of food crops. As the world’s growing middle classes eat more meat, the earth’s water resources will be dangerously squeezed.”

There’s plenty of water to feed everyone a diet that’s not so meatcentric.

“Nestle reckons that the earth’s maximum sustainable freshwater withdrawals are about 12,500 cubic kilometers per year. In 2008, global freshwater withdrawals reached 6,000 cubic kilometers, or almost half of the potentially available supply. This was sufficient to provide an average 2500 calories per day to the world’s 6.7 billion people, with little per capita meat consumption.”

The American diet is eating the world dry.

“The current US diet provides about 3600 calories per day with substantial meat consumption. If the whole world were to move to this standard, global fresh water resources would be exhausted at a population level of 6 billion, which the world reached in the year 2000.”

This is an even bigger problem now that other countries are eating like America and the global population’s set to grow by 2 billion by 2050.

“There is not nearly enough fresh water available to provide this standard to a global population expected to exceed 9 billion by mid-century.”

So what’s Nestle’s prediction for the future? Think “Mad Max”…

“It is clear that current developed country meat-based diets and patterns of water usage do not provide a blueprint for the planet’s future. Based on present trends, Nestle believes that the world will face a cereals shortfall of as much as 30 percent by 2025. (Nestle) stated it will take a combination of strategies to avert a crisis.”

Why is this the first time you’re hearing this from the world’s largest food company?

“Sensitive to its public image, Nestle has maintained a low profile in discussing solutions and tries not to preach…the firm scrupulously avoids confrontation and polemics, preferring to influence its audience discretely by example.”

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This Is What Would Happen If the Rest of the World Ate the Way America Does

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It Was Chinese Tea That Spawned the Tea Party

Mother Jones

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Today brings a new academic entry in the angry voter sweepstakes. A quartet of high-powered economists took a look at congressional districts and divided them up by how much they were exposed to trade with China. Some districts showed lots of job losses due to trade while others showed very little. How did voters react?

Districts with lots of job losses were somewhat more likely to vote out incumbents, but not by a lot. Nor were they more likely to switch parties. However, they were likely to become more extreme, electing very conservative Republicans and very liberal Democrats:

The point estimates suggest that about three quarters of the movement away from the political center induced by trade is the result of increasing conservativeness among elected legislators, while one quarter is due to increasing liberalness.

….Districts subject to larger increases in import competition from China are substantially less likely to elect a moderate legislator….Comparing more and less trade-exposed districts, the more-exposed district would become 18.5 percentage points less likely to have a centrist in power between 2002 and 2010. To put this magnitude in context, over the 2002 to 2010 time period, the fraction of “moderates” in the House declines to 37.1% from a baseline of 56.8%.

The authors believe that import competition from China following their accession to the WTO has played a big role in the polarization of American politics:

China bashing is now a popular pastime as much among liberal Democrats as among Tea Party Republicans. Our contribution in this paper is to show that this political showmanship is indicative of deeper truths. Growing import competition from China has contributed to the disappearance of moderate legislators in Congress, a shift in congressional voting toward ideological extremes, and net gains in the number of conservative Republican representatives, including those affiliated with the Tea Party movement.

Why did this benefit conservatives more than liberals? At a guess, it’s because they were better able to tap into voter anger. Both sides could make similar economic arguments, but conservatives could add a healthy dose of nationalism to the mix, something that liberals are a lot less comfortable with. That made their attacks on China more resonant.

Ironically, voters on both sides were basically getting scammed. Big talk aside, neither conservatives nor liberals did much to reduce trade with China. In fact, it’s not clear there was much they could have done. Short of abandoning the WTO and starting a trade war, there really weren’t a lot of options on the table. The net result, then, was lots of windy rhetoric and a more polarized Congress, and eventually the Donald Trump campaign. But Trump, like all the rest of the China bashers, has nothing more than windy rhetoric too.

At this point, the game is almost fully played out anyway. China’s impact on American jobs is a done deal, with little more to come as China itself moves to a less manufacturing-oriented economy and finds itself in competition with countries like Vietnam and Indonesia. But if the authors of this paper are right, the American political scene will continue to pay a price for decades to come.

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It Was Chinese Tea That Spawned the Tea Party

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John Kerry tugs at heartstrings at the Paris signing

John Kerry tugs at heartstrings at the Paris signing

By on Apr 22, 2016commentsShare

Secretary of State John Kerry, ever the diplomat, sure knows how to melt our cold hearts on Earth Day. Representatives from 175 countries marked the occasion with a formal signing ceremony of the Paris climate agreement at the United Nations. In an event featuring a sea of green ties, Kerry made a different kind of symbolic statement, holding his 2-year-old granddaughter Isabelle as he signed the agreement.

The ceremony is only a first step to seeing the Paris agreement enter into force. Fifty-five countries representing at least 55 percent of global emissions still need to ratify the agreement, which the U.S. and China (the two biggest emitters) plan on doing this year. Even once it’s ratified, there’s a lot of work left to be done. Top U.S. climate negotiator Todd Stern told Grist in an interview, “the most important thing is what countries do nationally” to make their needed emissions cuts. 

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E.U. weakened climate proposals after BP threatened oil company exodus

E.U. weakened climate proposals after BP threatened oil company exodus

By on Apr 20, 2016commentsShare

This story was originally published by the Guardian and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

The E.U. abandoned or weakened key proposals for new environmental protections after receiving a letter from a top BP executive which warned of an exodus of the oil industry from Europe if the proposals went ahead.

In the 10-page letter, the company predicted in 2013 that a mass industry flight would result if laws to regulate tar sands, cut power plant pollution, and accelerate the uptake of renewable energy were passed, because of the extra costs and red tape they allegedly entailed.

The measures “threaten to drive energy-intensive industries, such as refining and petrochemicals, to relocate outside the E.U. with a correspondingly detrimental impact on security of supply, jobs, [and] growth,” said the letter, which was obtained by the Guardian under access to documents laws.

The missive to the E.U.’s energy commissioner, Günther Oettinger, was dated Aug. 9, 2013, partly handwritten, and signed by a senior BP representative whose name has been redacted.

It references a series of “interactions” between the two men — and between BP and an unnamed third party in Washington, D.C. — and welcomes opportunities to further discuss energy issues in an “informal manner.”

BP’s warning of a fossil fuel pullout from Europe was repeated three times in the letter, most stridently over plans to mandate new pollution cuts and clean technologies, under the industrial emissions directive.

This reform “has the potential to have a massively adverse economic impact on the costs and competitiveness of European refining and petrochemical industries, and trigger a further exodus outside the E.U.,” the letter said.

The plant regulations eventually advanced by the commission would leave Europe under a weaker pollution regime than China’s, according to research by Greenpeace.

BP said any clampdown would cost industry many billions of euros and so pollution curbs “should also be carefully accessed with close cooperation with the industrial sectors.”

Last year, the E.U.’s environment department moved to limit the coal lobby’s influence on pollution standards, after revelations by the Guardian and Greenpeace about the scale of industry involvement.

The commission had previously allowed hundreds of energy industry lobbyists to aggressively push for weaker pollution limits as part of the official negotiating teams of E.U. member states.

Molly Scott Cato, a member of the European Parliament for the Green Party, said that the U.K.’s robust advocacy of BP’s positions was a cause of deep shame, and illustrated how Brexit would increase the power of fossil fuel firms.

She said: “It reveals how the arm-twisting tactics of big oil seek to undermine the E.U.’s progressive energy and climate policies. BP’s covert lobbying, combined with threats of an exodus of the petrochemicals industry from the E.U., are nothing short of blackmail.

“This document paints a disturbing picture of the degree to which global corporations subvert the democratic process, influence the commission, and threaten the vital transition to a cleaner, greener Europe.”

A BP spokesperson said that the letter was intended to “highlight the risk of ‘carbon leakage,’ where E.U. policy to reduce carbon emissions may result in industry relocating outside the E.U., rather than achieving any actual reduction in emissions. Avoiding this perverse outcome is of critical importance to climate policy.”

In his reply to BP, Oettinger said that his department was finalizing an energy prices report and “your thoughts are very valuable in this context.”

Before the report’s publication, Oettinger’s team removed figures from an earlier draft which revealed that E.U. states spent $45 billion a year on subsidies for fossil fuels, compared to $40 billion for nuclear energy, and just $34 billion for renewables. The commissioner’s office argues that the numbers were inconsistent and “not comparable.”

Early in his tenure, Oettinger had been forced to back down on plans for a moratorium on deepwater offshore oil drills in the wake of the BP Deepwater Horizon disaster. Within two years, he had become an industry champion, arguing that Europe was competitively disadvantaged by a reluctance to take offshore drilling risks.

Oettinger regularly hosts alpine retreats for government ministers, bankers, and captains of industry. In 2013, these included executives from Shell, Statoil, GDF Suez, EDF, Alstom, Enel, and ENI, although not BP.

A spokesperson for Oettinger said: “When the Commission prepares formal legislative proposals, there is a full public consultation exercise in which all stakeholders can participate. With the majority of the E.U. legislation referred to, Commissioner Oettinger was not the Commissioner in the lead.”

An alignment between the commission’s eventual climate proposals and BP’s positions was “unfound,” the official added.

In his reply to BP, Oettinger said that he shared the firm’s views on a guarantee for unlimited crude oil and gas exports being included in a TTIP free trade deal and welcomed more “thoughts” from the company.

Along with Shell, BP began lobbying for an end to the E.U.’s renewables and energy efficiency targets in 2011, but the scope of its lobby intervention went further.

In its letter, BP strongly opposed renewable energy subsidies, particularly in Germany, and a planned cap on certain biofuels which studies have shown to be highly polluting.

Over the year that followed, an E.U. state aid decision on renewables went against Germany, while a cap on the amount of first generation biofuels that could be counted towards E.U. targets was also weakened.

Europe’s efforts to cut carbon emissions should be built upon market-based tools such as its flagship emissions trading scheme, BP said in its letter.

But E.U. proposals to label tar sands oil as more polluting than other oil — which could lead to additional taxes — risked companies “being penalized subjectively on the basis of adverse perceptions,” according to BP.

The tar sands proposal was vehemently opposed by the U.K. and the Netherlands, and the plan was eventually dropped in 2014.

Jos Dings, the director of the sustainable transport thinktank Transport and Environment, said: “In case anyone doubted why Europe chose to treat all oil — regular and high polluting — the same, here’s the answer: Big Oil telling the commission that really its impossible to tell them apart.”

Lisa Nandy, the Labour’s shadow energy and climate secretary, called for the E.U.’s climate policies to be strengthened. “By working together with like-minded governments across Europe we can ensure that big companies cannot water down environmental safeguards,” she said.

BP recently topped a survey of the most obstructive company on climate change, and is increasingly a target for fossil fuels divestment campaigns.

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It’s Not Just Blue-Collar Workers Who Voted For Trump Last Night

Mother Jones

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I don’t really know how much to make of this, but Donald Trump’s victory in New York last night was remarkably thorough. Take a look at the exit poll results on the right for evidence.

Yes, Trump did well in his wheelhouse of high school grads. But college grads and postgrads also voted for him by huge margins. In New York, at least, having a PhD (or an MA or a law degree or a medical degree) didn’t do much to help you see through his obvious flimflam.

Perhaps even more remarkably, Trump’s strongest support didn’t come from blue-collar workers with modest incomes. It came from middle and upper-middle-class voters. Whatever their motivations, it didn’t have anything to do with China and Mexico taking away their jobs.

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It’s Not Just Blue-Collar Workers Who Voted For Trump Last Night

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Cutting Food Waste Would Help Fight Climate Change

I suspect it’s pretty much consensus opinion that the amount of food we waste, while people go hungry, is obscene. What’s less well recognized, however, is that cutting food waste isn’t just a way to fight hunger. It could also help us reduce the negative impacts of climate change.

A new study from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research suggests thatup to 14% of farming-related emissions could be slashed if we made a concerted effort to tackle food waste. That’s a pretty astounding number. And what’s particularly interestingand obvious once you think about itis that the food waste problem isn’t just about how much we waste, but what we waste too. Jrgen Kropp, co-author and deputy chair of PIK research domain Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, explains more in a press release:

As many emerging economies like China or India are projected to rapidly increase their food waste as a consequence of changing lifestyle, increasing welfare and dietary habits towards a larger share of animal-based products, this could over proportionally increase greenhouse-gas emissions associated with food waste at the same time undermining efforts for an ambitious climate protection.

It’s not explicitly laid out in the summary of the study, and I have yet to read the study in detail, but my assumption is that the focus on animal product-related food waste is three-fold. First, as is fairly well known by now,meat and dairy have a much higher climate impactthan most plant-based foods. Second, meat and dairy spoil faster than rice and beans. And thirdly, eating spoiled meat and dairy has a much graver consequence than snacking on a shriveled carrot.

The study itself does not get into how we go about cutting food waste. But given that agriculture accounts for as much as 20% of global emissions, a 14% cut to waste that’s morally obscene anyway should be a no-brainer in terms of societal priorities.

Fortunately, fighting food waste is beginning to getat least a fraction of the legislative attention that it deserves.

Written by Sami Grover. Reposted with permission from TreeHugger.

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are solely those of the author and may not reflect those of Care2, Inc., its employees or advertisers.

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Cutting Food Waste Would Help Fight Climate Change

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The US Is One of the Top Executioners in the World

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The global death penalty rate is skyrocketing. According to the latest tallies, published today by Amnesty International, at least 1,634 people were put to death last year, a 54 percent increase from the previous year. That’s the highest number of recorded executions in more than a quarter century, and it’s not even counting deaths in China, the world’s top executioner, where death penalty data is treated as a state secret.

Most of those deaths were in the Middle East: Iran, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia accounted for nearly 90 percent of all executions in 2015. The vast majority of Iran’s executions were for drug-related crimes, while Pakistan lifted a moratorium on civilian executions in 2014 to more aggressively punish suspected terrorists. In Saudi Arabia, the justice system is so opaque that it’s hard to know what’s driving executions, but since the new king came to power last year, the country has drawn increasing international condemnation for its crackdown on dissidents.

While executions surged in those three countries, the trend elsewhere was more heartening. Four more countries abolished the death penalty last year, which means that for the first time ever, more than half of all nations have legally abolished it. (Other countries have abandoned it in practice, after not executing anyone for at least a decade.)

And where does the United States stand? Just like in 2014, it ranked fifth on the list of the world’s top executioners last year. The country recorded 28 executions, its lowest annual amount since 1991, and 52 new death sentences, the lowest since 1977. Since 1846, 19 states have abolished the death penalty, but even though lethal punishment here is on the decline, we’re still the only country in the Americas to execute people.

You can read Amnesty International’s full report here.

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The US Is One of the Top Executioners in the World

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Say goodbye to major cities if these scientists are right about Antarctica’s collapsing ice

Say goodbye to major cities if these scientists are right about Antarctica’s collapsing ice

By on 31 Mar 2016commentsShare

This story was originally published by the Guardian and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

Sea levels could rise far more rapidly than expected in coming decades, according to new research that reveals Antarctica’s vast ice cap is less stable than previously thought.

The U.N.’s climate science body had predicted up to a meter of sea-level rise this century — but it did not anticipate any significant contribution from Antarctica, where increasing snowfall was expected to keep the ice sheet in balance.

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According a study, published in the journal Nature, collapsing Antarctic ice sheets are expected to double sea-level rise to two meters by 2100, if carbon emissions are not cut.

Previously, only the passive melting of Antarctic ice by warmer air and seawater was considered but the new work added active processes, such as the disintegration of huge ice cliffs.

“This [doubling] could spell disaster for many low-lying cities,” said Robert DeConto, professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, who led the work. He said that if global warming was not halted, the rate of sea-level rise would change from millimeters per year to centimeters a year. “At that point it becomes about retreat [from cities], not engineering of defenses.”

As well as rising seas, climate change is also causing storms to become fiercer, forming a highly destructive combination for low-lying cities like New York, Mumbai, and Guangzhou. Many coastal cities are growing fast as populations rise and analysis by World Bank and OECD staff has shown that global flood damage could cost them $1 trillion a year by 2050 unless action is taken.

The cities most at risk in richer nations include Miami, Boston, and Nagoya, while cities in China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Ivory Coast are among those most in danger in less wealthy countries.

The new research follows other recent studies warning of the possibility of ice sheet collapse in Antarctica and suggesting huge sea-level rises. But the new work suggests that major rises are possible within the lifetimes of today’s children, not over centuries.

“The bad news is that in the business-as-usual, high-emissions scenario, we end up with very, very high estimates of the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise” by 2100, DeConto told the Guardian. But he said that if emissions were quickly slashed to zero, the rise in sea level from Antarctic ice could be reduced to almost nothing.

“This is the good news,” he said. “It is not too late and that is wonderful. But we can’t say we are 100 percent out of the woods.” Even if emissions are slashed, DeConto said, there remains a 10 percent chance that sea level will rise significantly.

David Vaughan, professor at the British Antarctic Survey and not part of the research team, said: “The new model includes for the first time a projection of how in future, the Antarctic ice sheet may to lose ice through processes that today we only see occurring in Greenland.

“I have no doubt that on a century to millennia timescale, warming will make these processes significant in Antarctica and drive a very significant Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise. The big question for me is, how soon could this all begin. I’m not sure, but these guys are definitely asking the right questions.”

Active physical processes are well-known ways of breaking up ice sheets but had not been included in complex 3D models of the Antarctic ice sheet before. The processes include water from melting on the surface of the ice sheet to flow down into crevasses and widen them further. “Meltwater can have a really deleterious effect,” said DeConto. “It’s an attack on the ice sheet from above as well as below.”

Today, he said, summer temperatures approach or just exceed freezing point around Antarctica: “It would not take much warming to see a pretty dramatic increase [in surface melting] and it would happen very quickly.”

The new models also included the loss of floating ice shelves from the coast of Antarctica, which currently hold back the ice on land. The break-up of ice shelves can also leave huge ice cliffs 1,000 meters high towering over the ocean, which then collapse under their own weight, pushing up sea level even further.

The scientists calibrated their model against geological records of events 125,000 years ago and 3 million years ago, when the temperature was similar to today but sea level was much higher.

Sea-level rise is also driven by the expansion of water as it gets warmer, and in January, scientists suggested this factor had been significantly underestimated, adding further weight to concerns about future rises.

Recent temperatures have been shattering records and on Monday, it was announced that the Arctic ice cap had been reduced to its smallest winter area since records began in 1979, although the melting of this already floating sea ice does not push up ocean levels.

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Sublime Photos of African Wildlife Roaming Their Lost Habitat

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As an ardent conservationist, photographer Nick Brandt’s early work showing the majesty of the large animals that once ruled East Africa wasn’t enough. Brandt created three gorgeous photo books focused on African animals in danger of extinction: On This Earth (2005), A Shadow Falls (2009) and Across the Ravaged Land (2013). As a result of that work, what he saw, and what he learned, in 2010 he created the Big Life Foundation with conservationist Richard Bonham. Big Life protects more than 2 million acres of the Amboseli-Tsavo-Kilimanjaro ecosystem in East Africa.

Brandt’s new project, Inherit the Dust, pushes his photography further to help visualize the impact poaching and development has on wildlife. Inherit the Dust helps viewers see areas where elephants, giraffes, lions and other animals once roamed by placing 30-foot panels with photographs in the now industrialized landscapes. You see elephants sauntering through large dumps or under overpasses, giraffes blending in with machinery at mining sites. It’s a striking and effective technique. The book includes 68 images that, though admittedly repetitive in their execution and style, are no less impactful.

Wasteland with Elephant 2015

The work in the book has a beautiful bleakness to it. Looking at the photos alone leaves you feeling depressed. But the images also raise an important issue: Who is Brandt to question—let alone criticize—African nations for developing their countries? Brandt addresses this in the introduction. “I had to stop and ask myself, am I just grieving for the loss of this world because as a privileged white guy from the West, I’ll never again be able to see these animals in the wild?”

He answers by taking a subtle swipe at China for its role in the blink-of-an-eye pace of development in African countries. He also says just because Western nations trampled their environments in the name of progress, that doesn’t mean it’s a model to follow. With his work as a photographer and with the Big Life Foundation, Brandt asserts that environmental consciousness and growing a country’s economy “do not have to be mutually exclusive.”

Brandt punctuates his argument with Inherit the Dust‘s sweeping, somewhat painful panoramic photos.

All photos by Nick Brandt, Courtesy of Edwynn Houk Gallery, New York.

Quarry with Giraffe 2014

Quarry with Lion 2014

Alleyway with Chimpanzee 2014

Road to Factory with Zebra 2014

Underpass with Elephants (Lean Back, Your Life is on Track) 2015

Wasteland with Rhinos & Residents 2015

Behind the scenes: Giraffe & Goats

Crew wrapping elephant panel at sunset, November 2014

Photos from Inherit the Dust are on exhibition at Edwynn Houck Gallery in New York (March 10 to April 30, 2016); Fahey Klein Gallery in Los Angeles (March 24 to May 14); and Camerawork in Berlin (May 12 to July 8). Nick Brandt is a featured speaker at this year’s LOOK3 Festival of Photography in Charlottesville, Virginia (June 13-19).

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Sublime Photos of African Wildlife Roaming Their Lost Habitat

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9 figures to help you understand the state of renewable energy

9 figures to help you understand the state of renewable energy

By on 24 Mar 2016 10:59 amcommentsShare

Today, you’ll see some headlines touting last year’s record investment in renewables. A new report from the Frankfurt School–UNEP Centre and Bloomberg New Energy Finance shows investment in clean energy grew to $286 billion globally in 2015 — a new world record! — up 5 percent from the previous year. Here’s what the global trend in renewable investment looks like since 2004:

Global new investment in renewable energy by asset class, 2004–2015, $bn

UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

As a whole, investment in renewable capacity was more than twice that invested in coal- and gas-fired projects last year, and new clean generating capacity added was greater than all other kinds of new generating capacity combined. Note that coal and gas only make up about a third of the pie chart below:

New power generating capacity added in 2015 by main technology, gigawatts

Bloomberg New Energy Finance

But it would kind of be bonkers if that weren’t the case.

Investment in new renewable generating capacity has had a rocky history, but it has more or less been rising everywhere except Europe for the past decade. (Europe has notably seen a decline in investment since about 2011.)

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Still, total global renewable capacity — not just newly added renewable capacity — continues to make up just a small fraction of the energy mix. Total clean energy capacity grew to 16.2 percent of the global mix in 2015, an increase from 15.2 percent in 2014. Actual electricity generated by renewable sources (excluding large hydroelectric projects) grew to 10.3 percent. It’s encouraging growth, to be sure, but perhaps not the sunny picture painted by the phrase “new world record.”

Zooming the lens in a bit reveals a more interesting story. “There are so many numbers, it’s difficult to wrap them up in a few remarks,” cautioned Angus McCrone, lead author and chief editor on the report, on a press call. Indeed, there’s a lot going on in the UNEP report, but one of the things it does well is shine a shaft of light between the big numbers. Who, exactly, is spending all this money, and what kind of money are they spending? China — whose just-released Five-Year Plan has been heralded as its greenest ever — is pouring money into new renewable projects. But what kind of projects are we actually talking about?

China was No. 1 in renewable investment in 2015, responsible for 36 percent of the world’s total. Europe came in second; even its continued slide in investment left it with $4 billion more pumped into the renewable sector than the United States. Here’s the regional breakdown, in billions of dollars, of spending on renewables in 2015:

Global new investment in renewable energy by region, 2015, $bn

UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

That’s not the whole story, though. While China experienced 81 percent growth last year in new small distributed capacity (solar projects with a capacity of less than 1 megawatt), Japan still smashed the rest of the world in that sector. In the bar graph below, note that even with declining investment in small distributed capacity, the U.S. still finished in second:

Small distributed capacity investment by country, 2015, and growth on 2014, $bn

UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

China commissioned around 29 gigawatts of onshore wind capacity in 2015 and installed close to 16 GW of solar PV projects. The country’s investments are largely dominated by company borrowing for and spending on renewable projects: what UNEP calls asset finance. Asset finance mostly consists of what’s on company balance sheets, as well as loans and equity financing. Europe, too, invested more than the U.S. in terms of asset finance last year. Here’s the breakdown of how countries invested their renewable dollars in 2015:

New investment in renewable energy by country and asset class, 2015, and growth on 2014, $bn

UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

So the UNEP report helps clarify the role China plays in the renewable sector: It’s mostly deploying utility-scale projects, and they’re mostly projects that are ready for asset finance. Globally speaking, though, here’s what asset finance for renewables looks like over time and space:

Asset finance investment in renewable energy by region, 2004–2015, $bn

Bloomberg New Energy Finance, UNEP

But asset finance comes relatively late in a renewable project’s life cycle; that is, at the point of roll-out. Earlier in the cycle, though, the funding landscape looks a little different. Funding from public markets, for example, might begin to trickle in at the point when a given company scales up manufacturing. The United States, which leads the world in terms of investment in publicly listed renewable companies, saw a 41 percent increase in this kind of funding in 2015, compared to the previous year. Note China’s 45 percent dip in this area in the following chart:

Public markets investment in renewable energy by company nationality, 2015, and growth on 2014, $bn

Bloomberg New Energy Finance

In terms of venture capital and private equity — the kind of investment that comes at an earlier stage in a company’s cycle — the United States also boasted the heaviest spend. Here’s the global distribution of venture capital spending since 2004, broken down by region:

Venture capital/private equity investment in renewable energy by region, 2004–2015, $bn

Bloomberg New Energy Finance, UNEP

And the U.S. was responsible for more value in terms of mergers and acquisitions (including refinancings, takeovers, and buy-outs) in the renewables space than any other country last year. As the following chart shows, while China has seen modest growth in acquisitions over the past couple years, the country still makes up only a small chunk of total spending in this space:

Asset acquisitions and refinancings by region, 2004–2015, $bn

Bloomberg New Energy Finance

None of this is particularly surprising, but it is illuminating — and in many cases, sobering. Don’t forget that China brought more than 40 GW of coal and gas power online last year, too. Investment in the renewable sector continues to grow, but if countries are serious about the commitments they made at the Paris Climate Conference, they’ll have to wean themselves off fossil fuels a lot faster. “When you’re on a diet, it’s not enough to account for the salads you’re eating,” said Ulf Moslener, lead editor on the report, on a press call. “You also have to account for the ice cream.”

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9 figures to help you understand the state of renewable energy

Posted in alo, Anchor, FF, GE, LAI, ONA, Radius, solar, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on 9 figures to help you understand the state of renewable energy