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Congress Just Delayed New Funding to Help Rape Victims

Mother Jones

Last week, Congress once again delayed federal funding to help catch rapists.

Here’s the backstory. In March, President Barack Obama asked Congress to fund a new Justice Department program designed to help states and localities test backlogs of rape kits, which include DNA evidence taken after a sexual assault and are used to identify attackers. The funding would likely also go toward investigating and prosecuting rape cases.

There are over 100,000 untested kits sitting on shelves at police storage facilities around the country—some held for decades—partly because state and local governments lack the money to process them.

In May, the Republican-controlled House passed a massive spending bill for 2015 that included $41 million for the rape kit program, and a key committee in the Democratic-run Senate approved the same spending in June. But after a spat on the Senate floor over unrelated amendments Republicans wanted added to the bill, Democratic leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) yanked the legislation. Consequently, Congress had to resort to a short-term spending bill to keep the government operating until mid-December. The House and Senate approved it last week, and Obama signed it Friday. Because it’s a stop-gap spending bill, the legislation continues government spending at current levels, leaving out most new funding—including the money for the rape kit processing program.

More partisan bickering this winter could cause lawmakers to fail to pass a full appropriations bill until February or March, according to experts on congressional procedure, forcing rape victims to wait another six months or so to see the program enacted. That is, if this spending bill does include the rape kit money. (Last Thursday, the Senate approved a separate House-passed bill reauthorizing an existing program designed to process backlogged DNA evidence from all sorts of crimes, including rape kits. But the existing funding, which was first authorized in 2004, has not been sufficient to clear the backlog—which is why advocates were pushing for the new money.)

“The slowdown in appropriating funds for the rape kit program is a classic example of how Congress’ legislative dysfunction blocks even the smallest of bipartisan initiatives,” says Sarah Binder, an expert on legislative politics at the Brookings Institution.

Spokesmen for both the House and Senate appropriations committees say they are confident that local jurisdictions won’t have to wait until next spring to get the federal money they need to process rape kits. They note the consensus on Capitol Hill is that Congress will pass an appropriations bill with the rape kit funding in mid-December. But Binder is less optimistic. If Republicans win the Senate in the midterm elections, she says, GOPers might block passage of a spending bill until they assume control of the Senate in January. At that point, Binder explains, Republicans may be tempted to “use those spending bills as leverage” to force Dems to accept Republican priorities. That could bring things to a halt in Congress and localities may have to wait longer until money is allocated for the rape kit program.

Meanwhile, local prosecutors are struggling to wade through their backlogs. Cuyahoga County, Ohio, has a backlog of 1,650 rape cases requiring investigation and the county won’t complete the probes until 2019, according to local county officials. “Our great hope from the federal money is that it would help counties like us…hire more investigators and advocates so we can speed that time line,” says Joe Frolick, the spokesman for Cuyahoga County prosecutor Timothy McGinty.

Kym Worthy, the county prosecutor in Wayne County, Michigan, plans to apply for a portion of the $41 million grant as soon as Congress approves the funding. “I’d like it to happen tomorrow,” she told Mother Jones in August. “Every day that goes by is another day that the victims have to wait for justice. This is the first grant of its kind where they really got what it takes.”

“So many of us—mayors, police chiefs, district attorneys, victim advocates, state legislators, and governors—are doing all we can to end the backlog,” Sarah Tofte, a prominent victim advocate, says. “Isn’t it time that Congress did?”

The Senate appropriations bill with the $41 million in new rape kit processing money died this summer partly because Republicans, led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), wanted Democrats to allow them to add several unrelated amendments to the huge bill. One of those amendments, sponsored by McConnell, would have made it more difficult for the EPA to impose new rules on coal-fired power plants.

The federal government does not track the number of untested rape kits. That work has been left largely to advocates and journalists. The states with the largest known backlogs are Texas and Tennessee, which each have about 20,000 unprocessed kits in storage. Detroit has more than 11,000 unprocessed kits, and Memphis has over 12,000. Detroit recently tested 1,600 of its backlogged kits, helping the city identify 87 suspected serial rapists and leading to at least 14 convictions.

Here’s a look at the rape kit backlog around the country, via End the Backlog:

Map by AJ Vicens

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Congress Just Delayed New Funding to Help Rape Victims

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California (finally) gives cyclists a little more room to ride

BUFF IS BEAUTIFUL

California (finally) gives cyclists a little more room to ride

17 Sep 2014 7:38 PM

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Thanks, California! You are now the 24th state to require that drivers pass a cyclist with at least three feet of clearance. Local officials even have a snazzy name for the mandated breathing room: the buffer zone.

Until now, California’s only buffer rule advised cars to pass “at a safe distance” — and “safe,” as everyone knows, is relative. The penalty for ignoring the buffer zone is only $35. But hey, small victories. The fine jumps to $220 if a cyclist is injured in the zone.

More from the Los Angeles Times:

Colin Bogart, the programs director for the Los Angeles County Bicycle Coalition, a cycling advocacy organization … said he hopes that the law will encourage drivers to take a deep breath and wait before speeding past a cyclist.

“Every cyclist can cite a really harrowing moment where someone came way too close and really spooked us in the process,” Bogart said.

Truth. As a longtime California cyclist, I gotta say, the whole buffer thing had me spooked. If I cruised a few feet away from parked cars, to avoid getting doored, I’d be at the mercy of the crazy traffic behind me. If I swerved away from the crazy traffic, I’d put myself back in the line of door-flinging fire. According to the Los Angeles Times, in 2012, 5,000 cyclists were injured or killed in Los Angeles County alone.

But no worries, bike haters, the legal language around this stuff will still be nice and vague:

Under the new law, if traffic is too heavy to change lanes — or if other conditions make a three-foot buffer impossible — drivers must slow to a “reasonable and prudent” speed and wait to pass until the cyclist is safe.

“Reasonable and prudent”?! In afterwork gridlock? Ha, that’s a good one.

Source:
California’s 3-foot buffer zones for cyclists takes effect today

, Los Angeles Times.

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California (finally) gives cyclists a little more room to ride

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Living close to a fracking well could have given you that rash

Living close to a fracking well could have given you that rash

10 Sep 2014 5:53 PM

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Go outside your house right now. I don’t care if it’s raining! Just do it.

Good. Now, measure the distance between your front door and the nearest fracking well. (To determine, first and foremost, whether or not this exercise will be productive, please consult this map.)

Is the distance less than 0.6 miles? GREAT! Just kidding, that’s actually terrible news — you may be more susceptible to a whole slew of fun medical problems. What kind? Oh, rashes, eczema, sinus problems, and headaches, for starters. Woof.

A new study from Yale University – claimed by the lead author to be the largest of its kind – shows a correlation between living in proximity to a fracking well and symptoms of skin and upper respiratory problems.

The study, which was published today, surveyed 180 households in Washington Co., Pa., which lies about 30 miles south of Pittsburgh and has developed into a hotbed of fracking activity in recent years – the county now plays host to over 1,000 wells. It specifically sampled houses dependent on ground-fed water wells, which can be susceptible to contamination from chemicals used in fracking.

The results? Those who lived less than 0.6 miles away from a well were twice as likely to report health issues as their friends who lived over 1.2 miles from it.

But as anyone who’s ever half-dozed through a semester of ECON101 (for shame!) well knows, correlation does not imply causation. The study’s lead author, Peter Rabinowitz, is quick to emphasize that.

However (from the New Haven Register):

“It’s more of an association than a causation,” Rabinowitz said. “We want to make sure people know it’s a preliminary study. … To me it strongly indicates the need to further investigate the situation and not ignore it.”

Particularly in light of recent revelations about the state of healthcare and fracking in Pennsylvania, our response to Rabinowitz is: Yes, yes, a thousand times yes!

Source:
Yale study: Health problems found in people living near fracking wells

, New Haven Register.

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Living close to a fracking well could have given you that rash

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ECB Finally Shows Signs of Taking Lousy Economic Growth Seriously

Mother Jones

In a surprise move, the European Central Bank cut interest rates nearly to zero today And there’s more:

The central bank said that in October it would begin buying asset-backed securities, bundles of loans issued by banks to businesses and households….Perhaps more significantly, Mr. Draghi said that the central bank’s governing council was ready to take further measures if needed — a clear reference to quantitative easing, or broad-based purchases of government bonds or other assets.

“The governing council is unanimous in its commitment to using additional unconventional instruments,” Mr. Draghi said at a news conference….“Q.E. was discussed,” Mr. Draghi said. “A broad asset purchase program was discussed.” He said some members of the governing council favored starting such purchases, but others did not.

More from the Wall Street Journal:

While the ECB had in recent months indicated it was considering an ABS purchase program, the addition of a covered bond program and rate cuts was a surprise, and an indication that officials have grown increasingly concerned that the recent period of very low inflation could persist longer than first thought and may threaten the currency area’s economic recovery.

“In August, we see a worsening of the medium-term inflation outlook, a downward movement in all indicators of inflation expectations,” Mr. Draghi said. “Most, if not all, the data we got in August on GDP (gross domestic product) and inflation showed that the recovery was losing momentum.”

It’s still too little, too late—as usual with the ECB—but at least it suggests that European leaders are finally taking seriously the combination of low inflation and lousy economic growth in the eurozone. More please.

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ECB Finally Shows Signs of Taking Lousy Economic Growth Seriously

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From the Annals of Unexpected Headlines

Mother Jones

I would just like to say that this is not a headline I ever expected to see during my scan of the morning newspaper. That is all.

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From the Annals of Unexpected Headlines

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Republicans Mysteriously Decide to Become Hawkish Again

Mother Jones

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Apparently the kinder, gentler version of the Republican Party is quickly disappearing:

Remember when the Republican Party was quickly shifting toward a new brand of Rand Paul-esque foreign policy non-interventionism?

No more.

Less than a year ago, just 18 percent of GOPers said that the United States does “too little” when it comes to helping solve the world’s problems, according to a Pew Research Center poll. Today, that number has more than doubled, to 46 percent.

….The results echo a recent Washington Post-ABC News poll which showed higher GOP support for airstrikes in Iraq.

So what to account for the shift?

Hmmm. That’s a poser, isn’t it? What, oh what, could account for the shift?

Well, let’s cast our minds back a year or two. We were fighting in Libya, a war that President Obama got us involved in. We were fighting in Afghanistan, a war that Obama ramped up as soon as he took office. We were fighting drone wars in Yemen, Pakistan, and Somalia, all thanks to Obama.

Then what happened? The civil war in Syria heated up, but after a brief bout of indecision Obama decided not to get deeply involved. Russia ramped up military action in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, and Obama decided not to get deeply involved. ISIS took over a huge chunk of Iraq, and Obama decided not to get deeply involved.

So let’s review. A year or two ago, we were involved in three overseas wars, all of them supported by Obama. At the time, Republicans were unaccountably dovish about military interventions. Today, Obama is refraining from getting deeply involved in three overseas wars. And guess what? Republicans have suddenly become hawkish again.

Yep, this is a poser. What could possibly account for this change in Republican attitudes?

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Republicans Mysteriously Decide to Become Hawkish Again

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ISIS is a Problem That Only Iraqis Can Solve

Mother Jones

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Christopher Paul and Colin Clarke have studied 71 insurgencies during the post-WWII period and have concluded that every successful counterinsurgency shared several characteristics. They apply the results of their research to the problem of the ISIS insurgency in Iraq:

First, we found that in every case where they succeeded, counterinsurgent forces managed to substantially overmatch the insurgents and force them to fight as guerrillas before getting down to the activities traditionally associated with counterinsurgency….U.S. air power could make a significant contribution toward that end. Airstrikes will help curb Islamic State advances in strategically important parts of Iraq and thus, help bolster the Iraqi government and security forces, at least in the short term.

Second, we concluded from the research that “effective COIN practices tend to run in packs”….Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) techniques identified three COIN concepts critical to success. These three concepts were implemented in each and every COIN win, and no COIN loss implemented all three: Tangible support reduction; commitment and motivation; and flexibility and adaptability.

….U.S. support to an Iraqi counterinsurgency strategy to defeat the Islamic State must focus on reducing tangible support to the insurgents, increasing the commitment and motivation of the Iraqi military and security forces and increasing the government’s legitimacy among Iraqi Sunnis.

It’s been a long time since I spent much time reading about COIN and COIN strategies, but this basically sounds right to me. And it should send a shiver down the spine of anyone who thinks the US should get deeply involved in fighting ISIS.

Here’s why. One of the key factors that I remember identifying during the height of the Iraq insurgency was local commitment. In a nutshell, it turns out that virtually no postwar COIN effort led by a big Western country has been successful. Western help is OK, but the COIN effort has to be led by the local regime. It’s not a sufficient condition for success, but it’s a necessary one.

Paul and Clarke are basically confirming this. Sure, American air strikes might help in terms of the sheer firepower needed to successfully fight ISIS. But of the other three key COIN practices, two are purely local and the third is mostly local. There’s very little the United States can do to help out on these fronts. Only the Iraqi government can increase its legitimacy among the Sunni minority, and only the Iraqi government can properly motivate its military. (The US can provide training and materiel, but it can’t provide commitment and motivation.) Even the problem of reducing tangible support for the ISIS insurgents is mostly something only the Iraqi government can do. The US can help, but only if Iraqis are leading the way.

At the moment, there’s little evidence that the Iraqi government is capable of doing any of these three things. The new government of Haider Al-Abadi might be able to make progress on these fronts, but it hasn’t demonstrated that yet. Until it does, more US help is almost certainly doomed to failure.

Instinctive hawks should think long and hard about this. The record of the United States in counterinsurgencies is dismal. If the conditions are just right, we might be able to do some good in Iraq. At the moment, though, the conditions are appalling. We can put a few fingers in some dikes, but unless and until the Iraqi government steps up to the plate, there’s virtually no chance that deeper US involvement will turn out well.

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ISIS is a Problem That Only Iraqis Can Solve

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Inflation Is Still the Great Bogeyman of the Rich

Mother Jones

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Paul Krugman is trying to figure out why wealthy elites are so damn obsessed with the dangers of moderately higher inflation. After all, in a deep recession, inflation is likely to spur economic growth, and that helps rich folks. Their assets increase in value and they become even richer. So what’s their problem?

In a post yesterday, Krugman refers to my suggestion that it’s mostly a case of septaphobia, or fear of the 70s. The idea here is that inflation really did run out of control in the 70s, and it really did take a massive recession engineered by Paul Volcker to rein it in. If that was one of your seminal experiences of the consequences of loose money, then it’s no surprise that you fear inflation. But Steve Randy Waldman says this is “bass-ackwards”:

Elites love the 1970s. Prior to the 1970s, during panics and depressions, soft money had an overt, populist constituency….The 1970s are trotted out to persuade those who disproportionately bear the burdens of an underperforming or debt-reliant economy that There Is No Alternative, nothing can be done, you wouldn’t want to a return to the 1970s, would you?

Quite right. Because the high inflation of the 70s really was painful for the middle class, the 70s do indeed serve a very useful purpose to elites who want to keep fear of inflation alive. But that begs the question: Why do they want to keep fear of inflation alive? The fact that elites have hated inflation forever isn’t an answer. During the days of the gold standard, high inflation really did hurt the wealthy. But today’s economy is vastly different from the hard-money + financial repression economy of the 70s and before. Inflation is much less threatening to the rich than it used to be. Why haven’t they figured this out?

I’m not sure, but I do want to note that both Krugman and Waldman have at least partly misunderstood me. Although I do think that septaphobia is a real thing, I mainly think it’s a real thing for the non-rich. It’s primarily the middle class that fears a rerun of the 70s. That might have been a bit muddled in my initial post (which Krugman linked to), but I made this clearer in a subsequent post about the roots of inflation phobia:

So what’s the deal? I’d guess that it’s a few things. First, the sad truth is that virtually no one believes that high inflation helps economic growth when the economy is weak….Second, there’s the legitimate fear of accelerating inflation once you let your foot off the brake….Third, there’s the very sensible fear among the middle class that high inflation is just a sneaky way to erode real wages….Fourth, there’s fear of the 70s, which apparently won’t go away until everyone who was alive during the 70s is dead. Which is going to be a while.

Krugman responds to Waldman here, and even though Waldman says my argument is bass-ackwards, I actually think he and I mostly agree. Krugman may be right that higher inflation would help the rich right now, and that they’d support it if they were smart. But Waldman argues there’s more to it. Basically, he thinks the rich are fundamentally conservative: inflation might help them on average, but there are still going to be plenty of losers whenever there’s an engineered change to the economy. Since the rich, by definition, are already doing pretty well, why risk it?

I think that’s probably right, though Waldman probably overstates its importance. Wealthy elites aren’t that conservative, especially when it comes to making money. Still, it’s almost certainly a significant factor. But I also think Krugman is right about false consciousness. In fact, that was #1 on my list above: the fact that virtually no one really, truly believes in Keynesian stimulus. (Waldman makes this point too.) If rich elites really did believe that a bit of high inflation would get the economy booming, I think they’d swallow their innate conservatism and support it. But they don’t. Almost no one really believes it in their guts.

That’s a failure of the economics profession, perhaps, but it’s also a legacy of septaphobia. After all, if you take a look solely at the surface—and that’s what most of us do, rich and poor alike—what’s the lesson of the 70s? That’s easy: Inflation got out of control and the economy went to hell. Then Paul Volcker reined in inflation, and the economy boomed. What’s more, the rich have prospered mightily in the 30 years of low inflation since then. So why mess with a good thing?

So yes: It’s septaphobia, both in a real sense and as a useful morality tale. It’s false consciousness from wealthy elites who don’t really believe that inflation will spur the economy. And it’s the innate conservatism of the rich, who don’t have much incentive to accept change when they’re already doing pretty well. Add to that the fact that inflation phobia is an easy sell to voters because the middle class really does have reason to fear inflation, and you have everything you need to make it nearly impossible to convince people that a bit of higher inflation would be a good thing right now. And so we stagnate.

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Inflation Is Still the Great Bogeyman of the Rich

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Chart of the Day: When Women Fail, They Pay a Bigger Price Than Men

Mother Jones

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The chart below is not part of a study that examines a statistically random set of data. It’s quite informal, and probably suffers from some inherent sampling biases. Nonetheless, it’s pretty astonishing:

Here’s the background: Kieran Snyder asked men and women working in the tech industry to share their performance reviews with her. Virtually all of them were high performers who got generally strong reviews. But it wasn’t all positive:

In the 177 reviews where people receive critical feedback, men and women receive different kinds. The critical feedback men receive is heavily geared towards suggestions for additional skills to develop….The women’s reviews include another, sharper element that is absent from the men’s:

“You can come across as abrasive sometimes. I know you don’t mean to, but you need to pay attention to your tone.”

Etc.

This kind of negative personality criticism—watch your tone! step back! stop being so judgmental!—shows up twice in the 83 critical reviews received by men. It shows up in 71 of the 94 critical reviews received by women.

This comes via Shane Ferro, who concludes that there’s probably good reason for women to be more cautious than men in their professional lives. It’s easy to tell women they shouldn’t be afraid to fail. “But we as a society (men and women), need to stop judging women so harshly for their flaws. For them to be equally good, it has to be okay that they are equally bad sometimes.”

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Chart of the Day: When Women Fail, They Pay a Bigger Price Than Men

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There Are No Lessons of History

Mother Jones

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Adam Gopnik argues that knowing history won’t really help you understand the lessons of history. There are just too many of them, and you can always cherry pick whichever lesson supports the thing you wanted to do in the first place. Rather, it should teach us humility:

The best argument for reading history is not that it will show us the right thing to do in one case or the other, but rather that it will show us why even doing the right thing rarely works out.

….The real sin that the absence of a historical sense encourages is presentism, in the sense of exaggerating our present problems out of all proportion to those that have previously existed. It lies in believing that things are much worse than they have ever been—and, thus, than they really are—or are uniquely threatening rather than familiarly difficult. Every episode becomes an epidemic, every image is turned into a permanent injury, and each crisis is a historical crisis in need of urgent aggressive handling—even if all experience shows that aggressive handling of such situations has in the past, quite often made things worse.

Unfortunately, I doubt that Gopnik is right. Outside of academia, I haven’t noticed that a knowledge of history is correlated in any way with a calmer perspective on our current problems.

Take President Obama. He’s a smart guy. He knows history, and he has an instinctively level-headed attitude toward life in the first place. What’s more, he very famously won office partly on the strength of his skepticism toward military intervention and his opposition to “dumb wars.”

So what happened after he took office? He almost immediately approved a surge in Afghanistan. Then another surge. That didn’t work out especially well, and by 2011, when Libya was going up in flames, Obama was obviously reluctant to get involved. But he did anyway. And that turned into a complete clusterfuck. But even that wasn’t quite enough. Two years later he almost got talked into intervening in Syria before turning aside at the last minute. And that brings us to the present day and the threat of ISIS.

As near as I can tell, Obama is now, finally, genuinely, skeptical about military intervention. That’s why he’s been so reluctant to approve wider air strikes against ISIS even though there’s hardly a more deserving target of a bombing campaign anywhere in the world. He understands in his gut that it’s not likely to work, and that it definitely won’t work without an Iraqi government that can competently provide the ground troops to do the bulk of the fighting. Right now that doesn’t exist, so Obama is refusing to be drawn into an unwinnable quagmire. He finally understands.

But this isn’t because of his knowledge of history. It’s because of Afghanistan. And Libya. And Syria. It took three consecutive slaps in the face to finally convince his gut of what his brain probably believed all along.

In the end, I think this is why I sympathize with Obama’s foreign policy choices even though I’ve been at least moderately opposed to all his interventions. I’d like to think that I would have made different decisions if I’d been in his place, but the truth is I probably wouldn’t have. The institutional and political pressures in favor of military action are just too strong. More than likely, I would have caved in too until I eventually learned better from bitter experience.

Is Gopnik’s brand of historical fatalism any better than historical blindness? It’s hard to say. But it probably doesn’t matter. When it comes time to actually do things, we learn from experience, not the past.

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There Are No Lessons of History

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