It Doesn’t Matter If We Never Run Out of Oil: We Won’t Want to Burn It Anymore
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Like whale oil in the 1860s, oil today has become uncompetitive — even at low prices — and that will only become truer with time. Dept of Energy Solar Decathlon/Flickr Charles C. Mann is a great storyteller, but “What If We Never Run Out of Oil?” tells the wrong story and is marred by bloopers. Mann’s story is entirely about quantity of supply, not price nor the more-efficient use it encourages. Yet mainstream analysts see “peak oil” emerging not in supply but in demand: OECD oil use peaked in 2005, U.S. gasoline use peaked in 2007, and some analysts think world oil use may peak in this decade. Why? Modern technologies to save or displace oil cost far less than oil. The 2011 study Reinventing Fire found that an uncompromised, oil-free U.S. automobile fleet would cost $18 per saved barrel, rising to about $25 per barrel for all transportation. That’s manyfold cheaper than any source of oil Mann describes, yet he doesn’t discuss efficient use or price. That’s the big story: Like whale oil in the 1860s, oil has become uncompetitive even at low prices, long before becoming unavailable even at high prices. This comparison doesn’t even consider hidden or external costs. Just the economic and military costs of U.S. oil dependence, if paid at the pump rather than through taxes and reduced wealth, would triple the price of oil — plus any costs to health, safety, environment, climate, global stability and development, or our nation’s independence and reputation. To keep reading, click here.
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It Doesn’t Matter If We Never Run Out of Oil: We Won’t Want to Burn It Anymore
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It Doesn’t Matter If We Never Run Out of Oil: We Won’t Want to Burn It Anymore
