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Is the Crisis in Ukraine About to Wind Down?

Mother Jones

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I’ve been watching the unfolding events in Ukraine with the usual rising mix of apprehension and horror, but I haven’t blogged about it much since I don’t have anything to add in the way of insight or analysis. So instead I’ll turn the mike over to Fred Kaplan, who does:

Contrary to appearances, the crisis in Ukraine might be on the verge of resolution. The potentially crucial move came today when interim President Oleksandr Turchynov said that he would be open to changing the country’s political system from a republic, with power centered in the capital Kiev, to a federation with considerable autonomy for the regional districts.

That has been one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s key demands….If Putin can win this demand—and the political, economic, and cultural inroads it would provide—an invasion would be not just be unnecessary, it’d be loony. War is politics by other means, and a revamping of Ukraine’s power structure would accomplish Putin’s political aims by less costly means.

….Sending NATO fighter aircraft to Poland and the Baltic states, mobilizing warships to the Black Sea, ratcheting up sanctions with threats of more to come—all this sends a signal that the West won’t stand by. In fact, Putin has done more to rivet the NATO nations’ attention, and perhaps get them to boost their defense budgets, than anything in the past decade.

But Obama and the other Western leaders also know they’re not going to go to war over Ukraine. Putin knows this, too. At the same time, if he’s at all rational (and this is the worrying thing—it’s not clear that he is), Putin would calculate that escalation is not a winning strategy for him. He could invade the eastern slices of Ukraine, especially around Donetsk, but he couldn’t go much further. The move would rile the rest of Ukraine to take shelter under the EU’s (and maybe NATO’s) wing, and it would rouse the Western nations to rearm to an extent unseen in 20 years (and to a level that the Russian economy could not match).

I keep thinking that even from a nationalistic Russian point of view, the cost of invading and holding eastern Ukraine is simply too large. The game isn’t worth the candle. And yet….who knows? Rationality is sometimes in short supply. I’d still bet against a Russian invasion, especially if Putin can get much of what he wants without it, but it would be a pretty iffy bet.

In any case, I wonder how long this “federation” will last? If Putin is smart, he can bide his time and just wait. A federated Ukraine could organically turn into eastern and western Ukraine with a bit of patience and without firing a shot. In the end, that would probably suit Russia’s interests better than outright annexation.

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Is the Crisis in Ukraine About to Wind Down?

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Cliven Bundy Exposes the Cravenness of the Modern Right

Mother Jones

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Like a lot of people, Ed Kilgore is distressed at the outpouring of support on the right for Nevada rancher Cliven Bundy:

Call it “individualism” or “libertarianism” or whatever you want, but those who declare themselves a Republic of One and raise their own flags are in a very literal sense being unpatriotic.

That’s why I’m alarmed by the support in many conservative precincts for the Nevada scofflaws who have been exploiting public lands for private purposes and refuse to pay for the privilege because they choose not to “recognize” the authority of the United States. Totally aside from the double standards involved in expecting kid-glove treatment of one set of lawbreakers as opposed to poorer and perhaps darker criminal suspects, fans of the Bundys are encouraging those who claim a right to wage armed revolutionary war towards their obligations as Americans. It makes me really crazy when such people are described as “superpatriots.” Nothing could be more contrary to the truth.

The details of the Bundy case have gotten a lot of attention at conservative sites, but the details really don’t matter. Bundy has a baroque claim that the United States has no legal right to grazing land in Nevada; for over a decade, every court has summarily disagreed. It’s federal land whether Bundy likes it or not, and Bundy has refused for years to pay standard grazing fees—so a couple of weeks ago the feds finally decided to enforce the latest court order allowing them to confiscate Bundy’s cattle if he didn’t leave. The rest is just fluff, a bunch of paranoid conspiracy theorizing that led to last week’s armed standoff between federal agents and the vigilante army created by movement conservatives.

The fact that so many on the right are valorizing Bundy—or, at minimum, tiptoeing around his obvious nutbaggery—is a testament to the enduring power of Waco and Ruby Ridge among conservatives. The rest of us may barely remember them, but they’re totemic events on the right, fueling Glenn-Beckian fantasies of black helicopters and jackbooted federal thugs for more than two decades now. Mainstream conservatives have pandered to this stuff for years because it was convenient, and that’s brought them to where they are today: too scared to stand up to the vigilantes they created and speak the simple truth. They complain endlessly about President Obama’s “lawlessness,” but this is lawlessness. It’s appalling that so many of them aren’t merely afraid to plainly say so, but actively seem to be egging it on.

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Cliven Bundy Exposes the Cravenness of the Modern Right

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"Mitt" the Movie: What’s Not There

Mother Jones

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Forgive me for being parochial, but I was looking for a specific piece of footage in the new Netflix behind-the-scenes documentary on Mitt Romney—simply titled Mitt—that was made by Greg Whiteley, who trailed the GOP candidate for six years through Election Night 2012. I yearned to see Romney’s response to the release of the 47-percent video: how he personally reacted to this revelation and how his campaign planned its public reply. This was a significant moment in Romney’s political life. How he handled it could be quite enlightening. After all, the film does record how Romney dealt with his 2008 loss in the GOP presidential primaries. (In conversations with his family, Romney acknowledges he was branded “the flippin’ Mormon,” and says, “I think I’m a flawed candidate.”) But Whiteley offers us no peek at how the former CEO processed the historic 47-percent moment that did much to define him—or reinforce an existing definition.

In fact, for all the access Whiteley obtained, he serves up little material that will alter the basic story of Mitt. Sure, the viewer will learn that Romney likes to romp in the snow with his grandkids, that he’s happier with a pair of duct-taped gloves than a new set, that he has a somewhat dark sense of humor, that he often thinks of his father, that wife Ann is tightly strung, and that Romney likes to pick up trash from the floors or balconies of hotel rooms during tense moments (say, before he hits the stage for a debate or prior to the announcement of election results). Certainly, Romney comes across as less robotic in these 90-minutes of home-movie-like scenes. But the film offers no insights about the fellow. His faults as a presidential candidate are not examined. What he really believes—other than the notion that the nation is heading off a cliff due to too much taxation and regulation—is left on the cutting room floor. That is, if it was ever captured.

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"Mitt" the Movie: What’s Not There

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World’s biggest solar thermal power plant fired up in California

World’s biggest solar thermal power plant fired up in California

Business WireIvanpah on Tuesday.

The 3,500-acre Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System is a startling sight in the Mojave Desert. Three sprawling units each contain a circular array of mirrors reflecting rays from the sun toward a 459-foot central tower. Water in the tower is heated by the rays to produce steam, which spins turbines and — voila — electricity is produced.

It all seems a bit magical, but as of Tuesday, the world’s largest solar thermal power plant began feeding energy into a power grid for the first time.

How much energy? Once fully operational, the project is expected to produce 377 megawatts of power that will be sold to two Californian utilities, helping the state’s electricity sector meet ambitious, state-mandated renewable energy goals. During some days it could provide enough power for more than 200,000 homes.

Partners in the project include NRG Energy, BrightSource Energy, Google, Bechtel and, of course, you and me. The federal government leased public land to the effort and backed it up with one of those loan guarantees that you heard so much about in 2011 and 2012.

It’s not just the loan guarantee that made this a controversial project. Some environmentalists have been angered by its impacts on the desert ecosystem, focusing on displaced desert tortoises. Others have questioned why a solar plant that uses water would be built in the desert — instead of one that uses photovoltaic panels.

But with the historic “first sync” of one of the power plant’s three units on Tuesday, it might be a good idea to put those questions aside for now and just celebrate the achievement of a massive solar milestone in California.

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.Find this article interesting? Donate now to support our work.Read more: Business & Technology

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World’s biggest solar thermal power plant fired up in California

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TEXAS, Wind Power, Historic Windmills, Energy – US44 WBI0081 – Walter Bibikow – Toddler T-Shirt (2T)

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5 Gorgeous Landmarks Threatened by Rising Seas

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Because of climate change, postcard-perfect lighthouses, parks, and seaside city blocks could soon be swallowed into the ocean. So, you spent last weekend celebrating American independence with patriotic fervor and you’re now enthused about the preservation of American history and culture and all things awesome and bygone. Right? Keep that historical buzz going for a moment to contemplate five sites the National Trust for Historic Preservation—the country’s preservers-in-chief—thinks are most vulnerable to flooding caused by sea level rise. Even though the the Trust fields regular requests for planning assistance from coastal cities across country, the group says no comprehensive models yet exist to address sea level rise and its threat to historic landmarks. That’s bad, says Anthony Veerkamp, a program director with the Trust, because without first taking stock of what we might lose, “inevitably there will be adaptation strategies that do lesser or greater harm to historic resources.” Here are five sites the Trust are most worried about: 1. San Francisco’s Embarcadero California’s Bay Area can expect sea levels to rise by up to 55 inches by the end of the century, putting an estimated 270,000 people and $62 billion worth of San Francisco urbanbling at risk of increased flooding. That presents a major challenge to the three-mile stretch of San Francisco’s downtown Embarcadero district, which features more than twenty historic piers, a bulkhead wharf in twenty-one sections, a seawall built in the late 1800s, and the iconic Ferry Building, fully commissioned in 1903. California’s seasonal king tides already overflow San Francisco’s sea walls and occasionally spill into the Embaracadero, providing a preview for what might happen more regularly if sea levels continue to rise. 2. New York City’s Battery When Superstorm Sandy slammed New York City, waters surged with the added force of a high spring tide over Lower Manhattan’s sea walls, producing a “storm tide” more than 14 feet above the average, smashing a 50-year record. In the Battery—that most southern tip of Manhattan from where New York City boomed—flood waters rose in Castle Clinton, a fortress built to prevent a British invasion in 1812, now a museum and entry point for historical tours of New York harbor. Castle Clinton itself was transformed into New York’s first immigration facility: 8 million people entered the US through here (then called Castle Garden) from 1855-1890. The New York City Panel on Climate Change predicts flooding like this at the Battery will beup to five times more likely by mid-century. 3. Miami Beach Miami Beach might nowadays conjure images of bared flesh and art parties, but accompanying the polished pecs is a unique collection of Art Deco, Mediterranean Revival, and MiMo architecture (Miami Modernism is a flamboyant post-World War II style featuring sweeping curved walls, pylons, and stucco-colored avant garde shapes). “Miami beach is remarkably vulnerable,” Veerkamp says. “You’ve got threats coming from both sides, from the bay and the Atlantic.” The EPA suggests that, by the year 2100, there is a 50 percent chance of a 20-inch sea-level rise at Miami Beach. The majority of the city is a flood zone: the OECD lists Miami as the number-one most vulnerable city worldwide in terms of property damage, Jeff Goodell of Rolling Stone writes in his definitive article “Goodbye, Miami“, with more than $416 billion in assets at risk. 4. Gay Head Lighthouse, Mass. Perched on a spectacular escarpment in Martha’s Vineyard, the Gay Head Lighthouse was first lit in 1856 (for lighthouse nerds, it was one of the first in the US to receive a first-order Fresnel lens​, which has a jagged-surface that uses less glass and allows light to be projected over greater distances than previous models). The National Trust for Historical Preservation says the lighthouse is in danger of toppling over the edge of the Gay Head Cliffs, a consequence of a century’s worth of erosion which the Trust says is being accelerated by climate change-induced storms. It is estimated that in two years, there will not be enough land left to accommodate the machinery and equipment needed to move the tower. 5. Historic Downtown Annapolis

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5 Gorgeous Landmarks Threatened by Rising Seas

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5 Gorgeous Landmarks Threatened by Rising Seas

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Marktown, Ind., a historic town shivering in BP’s dark shadow

Marktown, Ind., a historic town shivering in BP’s dark shadow

This is the historic neighborhood of Marktown, near East Chicago, Ind. It’s a historic area, built a century ago to accommodate workers at a nearby steel plant, dubbed one of the “Seven Wonders of Northwest Indiana.”

Now zoom out.

Marktown is like that house in Up, surrounded on all sides by newer, uglier buildings — in this case, industry. Scroll to the northwest a little and you’ll see Marktown’s greatest threat: the BP Whiting oil refinery. Midwest Energy News tells the story:

About a quarter of the pastel, stucco Marktown homes are now vacant and crumbling. There is a general appearance of abandonment and decay. But on the evening of Jan. 23 the Marktown community center was bustling, packed with residents confused and alarmed about the news circulating over the past few days. …

Kim Rodriguez, a 54-year-old lifelong resident, had called the meeting to try to save the neighborhood.

That’s because BP officials recently acknowledged they are looking to buy up and raze Marktown homes.

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The state of Indiana has recognized the neighborhood as a historic area. But that doesn’t matter.

In 1975 Marktown — which is officially part of the city of East Chicago, while the refinery is in adjacent Whiting — was placed on the National Register of Historic Places. That means federal resources cannot be used for redeveloping or destroying structures.

But the historic designation offers no such protection against private development or demolition by an entity like BP.

Dean said that, “BP respects the historical designation of the Marktown Community and is exploring preliminary possibilities related to the historic designation,” though he also said that “once acquired, the property would be razed.”

The full story (go read it!) is distressing and sad, outlining an encroachment of wealth and industry on history and community. And then, everything else aside, there’s why BP wants the property. The company wants to displace families and destroy historic homes because it wants a place to stage equipment.

And it needs more parking.

And it wants some green space.

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As Chicago-area refinery grows, historic town fears for its future, Midwest Energy News

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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The fracking boom, as told in six railroad industry graphs

The fracking boom, as told in six railroad industry graphs

You can learn the story of the fracking boom by looking at one set of data: railroad shipments. Because, you know, it’s 1890.

Our Lisa Hymas explained how and why oil companies are increasingly relying on rail shipments; in short, no new pipelines plus a huge spike in extraction. But how big is that spike? Here is how the Association of American Railroads depicts it [PDF].

Association of American Railroads

Or, if you prefer, here’s the percentage change in carloads of petroleum, year over year.

Association of American Railroads

And in raw number:

Association of American Railroads

The main reason for this boom is fracked oil from the northern Plains states (something we’ve also discussed previously). Fracking requires lots of sand, used to hold open the fissures through which gas and oil make their way to the surface. So as fracked oil has increased, so have rail shipments of sand.

Association of American Railroads

Fracking natural gas has also meant significant declines in coal use. Since you can’t ship coal through a pipeline (very quickly), rail carloads are a good indicator of the strength of coal. Doing so, we see that 2012 has been a particularly bad year for coal.

Or, more starkly:

Association of American Railroads

There you have it. The fracking industry, as told by railroad data.

Incidentally, I’ll note that that first graph, showing how much more oil was shipped in 2012 brought to mind this one we shared yesterday, showing how much warmer 2012 has been than any year prior.

Click to embiggen.

You’d be forgiven for thinking that the two graphs were somehow related.

Source

In One Chart, See Why 2012 Was A Historic Year For The US Oil Comeback, Business Insider

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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California pot farms poison animals, cute and less cute alike

California pot farms poison animals, cute and less cute alike

Mourad Gabriel is not feeling very mellow, dudes. The Northern California wildlife disease ecologist has been tracking and studying forest-dwelling fishers for the last 10 years, but lately he’s become more of a wildlife coroner.

First, let’s get this out of the way: Fishers deserve your sympathy, but they are not very cute.

A part of the weasel family, cat-sized fishers have hunted turkeys and bobcats, and have few predators besides humans, who used to poach them for fur and now just kill them with pesticides on illegal marijuana farms. From On Earth:

Fishers once roamed our northwestern forests in abundance, but their numbers have dwindled dramatically in the region. Now Gabriel, 38, believes he has unlocked the mystery as to what’s keeping this species from bouncing back. And his discovery, alas, is what has outlaw pot growers reaching for their guns …

“I’m not focused on the pot plants,” Gabriel says. “What makes my blood boil is the environmental damage being done on public land.”

Hit hard by fur trapping and the logging of the forests they favor, fishers had all but vanished from their historic range by the early twentieth century. Gabriel describes them as an “umbrella species,” meaning that they tend to be good indicators of their ecosystem’s overall health. By studying the remaining fishers closely, biologists can get a sense of how other members of their ecosystem are faring.

Fishers live and hunt in mature forests that provide great cover for surreptitious weed grows — grows that are actively poisoning the land and its creatures, adorable and ruthless alike. Gabriel surveyed the scene at one Humboldt County marijuana farm, post-raid.

Pesticide containers were scattered across the landscape, their poison baits marked with countless scratches made by the gnawing teeth of mice and rats. The pot growers, it soon became clear, were spreading large amounts of rodenticide around their plants to protect them from tiny pests. The rodents were living for several days after eating the poison — just long enough to be preyed on by fishers.

Gabriel began to document the stunning quantities of rodenticide that were peppering the 144 square miles of the Hoopa reservation. On one grow site near the reservation, 90 pounds were discovered. He calculates that 10.5 pounds (the amount he found at one of the first sites he studied) is enough to kill 12,542 deer mice or 1,792 wood rats — and anywhere from 5 to 28 fishers.

Outdoor cannabis farming may be more sustainable than the inside kind, but it’s all bad news for the environment. Maybe Humboldt State University’s new marijuana institute could research not just the plant itself, but its effects on the area’s own ecosystem.

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Sea levels are rising 60 percent faster than expected

Sea levels are rising 60 percent faster than expected

One thing that can be said categorically about Hurricane Sandy is that sea-level rise was a key factor in the damage the storm caused. New York Harbor is 15 inches higher than it was in 1880, eight of which are due directly to human-made climate change. A 2007 report suggested that by 2100 the seas could be at least seven inches higher still.

But those estimates may have been conservative. The Institute of Physics revealed today that the seas are rising 60 percent faster than expected.

mshehan

Manhattan in 200 years.

While temperature rises appear to be consistent with the projections made in the [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s] fourth assessment report (AR4), satellite measurements show that sea-levels are actually rising at a rate of 3.2 mm a year compared to the best estimate of 2 mm a year in the report. …

Satellites measure sea-level rise by bouncing radar waves back off the sea surface and are much more accurate than tide gauges as they have near-global coverage; tide gauges only sample along the coast. Tide gauges also include variability that has nothing to do with changes in global sea level, but rather with how the water moves around in the oceans, such as under the influence of wind.

The study also shows that it is very unlikely that the increased rate is down to internal variability in our climate system and also shows that non-climatic components of sea-level rise, such as water storage in reservoirs and groundwater extraction, do not have an effect on the comparisons made.

Which means that in 88 years, New York’s harbor will be at least 11 inches higher — assuming that the speed of the rise doesn’t increase still more.

From The Guardian:

The faster sea-level rise means the authorities will have to take even more ambitious measures to protect low-lying population centres — such as New York City, Los Angeles or Jacksonville, Florida — or risk exposing millions more people to a destructive combination of storm surges on top of sea-level rise, scientists said.

Scientists earlier this year found sea-level rise had already doubled the annual risk of historic flooding across a widespread area of the United States. …

“The study indicates that this is going to be as bad or worse than the worst case scenarios of the IPCC so whatever you were planning from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod in terms of how you were preparing for sea-level rise — if you thought you had enough defences in place, you probably need more,” [study coauthor Grant] Foster said.

The other lesson of Sandy, of course, was that we should be under no impression that we have enough defenses in place.

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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