Tag Archives: international

Chart of the Day: Why US Economic Sanctions on Russia Won’t Have Much Impact

Mother Jones

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My view of economic sanctions has been strongly influenced by Dan Drezner, who tells us (if I can oversimplify for the sake of a blog post) that they basically don’t work. That’s not an ironclad rule, and there are certain situations where they tend to have some effect. However, one of the primary conditions for success is that the sanctions be broadly applied. If it’s just one country, they almost never work. The target of the sanctions will simply bear the loss and increase its trade with other partners.

This is especially apropos to our current situation with Russia. Our ability to impose sanctions is limited to begin with thanks to our obligations under the WTO. But that hardly even matters. What really matters is that our trade with Russia is minuscule. Cutting off a piece of our trade would hardly impact them at all. Most of Russia’s trade is with Europe and Asia, so no sanctions regime has even a chance of working unless they agree to join in. So far they haven’t, and for the obvious reason: they have a lot of trade with Russia. Sanctions would hurt them as much as it would hurt Putin.

The chart below, via Danny Vinik, tells the tale. We simply don’t have much trade leverage with Russia. (The export chart looks pretty much the same.) Until Drezner weighs in on this to tell me different, I’d say this is the definitive answer to the question of whether economic sanctions are likely to have any effect on Russia’s conduct.

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Chart of the Day: Why US Economic Sanctions on Russia Won’t Have Much Impact

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Putin Lets It All Hang Out at Press Conference

Mother Jones

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Julia Ioffe says Angela Merkel was right: Vladimir Putin has lost his marbles. Here is her reaction to his televised press conference earlier today:

Slouching in a fancy chair in front of a dozen reporters, Putin squirmed and rambled. And rambled and rambled. He was a rainbow of emotion: serious! angry! bemused! flustered! confused! So confused. Victor Yanukovich is still the acting president of Ukraine, but he can’t talk to Ukraine because Ukraine has no president. Ukraine needs elections, but you can’t have elections because there is already a president. And no elections will be valid given that there is terrorism in the streets of Ukraine. And how are you going to let just anyone run for president? What if some nationalist punk just pops out like a jack-in-the-box? An anti-Semite?

….The American political technologists they did their work well. And this isn’t the first time they’ve done this in Ukraine, no. Sometimes, I get the feeling that these people…these people in America. They are sitting there, in their laboratory, and doing experiments, like on rats. You’re not listening to me. I’ve already said, that yesterday, I met with three colleagues. Colleagues, you’re not listening. It’s not that Yanukovich said he’s not going to sign the agreement with Europe. What he said was that, based on the content of the agreement, having examined it, he did not like it. We have problems. We have a lot of problems in Russia. But they’re not as bad as in Ukraine. The Secretary of State. Well. The Secretary of State is not the ultimate authority, is he?

And so on, for about an hour. And much of that, by the way, is direct quotes.

Other sources aren’t quite as scornful as Ioffe, but they’re close. The Guardian described Putin’s remarks as “impromptu and occasionally rambling.” The New York Times said he was “clearly furious.” Adam Taylor of the Washington Post called it “a series of half-truths, circular reasoning, and bravado.”

In any case, the main actual news of the press conference is that Putin said he saw no need to send forces into eastern Ukraine “yet,” but reserves the right to do so in the future. So that’s the latest.

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Putin Lets It All Hang Out at Press Conference

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The Ukraine-Russia Crisis in 26 Nail-Biting Numbers

Mother Jones

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Update: On Tuesday, President Vladimir Putin harshly criticized Ukraine’s new leadership, calling the crisis an “unconstitutional coup.” He said that Russia is not planning to annex Crimea and he would leave it up to citizens in the region to determine their future. He did not take the option of using military force off the table and said it would be used as “a last resort.”

Last month, the world’s eyes turned to Russia to see if President Vladimir Putin could manage to get hotel showers ready in time for the Sochi Olympics. Just a few weeks later, Putin once again has the international community waiting in suspense, but for a very different reason. The world is waiting to find out if Russia will launch a full-scale armed assault on Ukraine. After months of anti-government protests in Ukraine—sparked by President Viktor Yanukovych’s rejection of a European Union trade deal—the rubber-stamp Russian parliament authorized Putin to send military forces into Ukraine on March 1. The action is reportedly being undertaken to protect the Russian population in the Crimean Peninsula, where, conveniently, Russia also has strong economic and political interests.

As Putin shoots spitballs into the faces of Western leaders—who, remembering the Cold War, aren’t expected to take much action in response to the crisis—Ukraine is mobilizing forces, preparing to take on a military that is far better equipped than its own. The Obama administration has declared that it is prepared to enact sanctions and come up with other consequences if Russia continues to move forward; European Union leaders are having an emergency summit Thursday. Here’s what you need to know about the ongoing crisis, in 26 numbers:

Update: $1 billion: US loan guarantees that Secretary of State John Kerry has promised Ukraine’s new government.

6,000: The number of Russian ground and naval forces that have entered the Crimean Peninsula of Ukraine, according to US officials. (On Monday, Ukrainian officials told the UN Security Council that the number was higher, reaching 16,000.)

500,000: The number of anti-government protesters who flooded Ukraine’s capital, Kiev, in December to demand the ousting of Yanukovych. Anti-government protests have since been held in the cities of Dnepropetrovsk, Odessaâ&#128;&#139;, and Kharkivâ&#128;&#139;, according to the Washington Post. Thousands of protesters marched in Moscow on Sunday in support of Russian incursion, and there have also allegedly been pro-Russia protests in many Ukrainian cities. (According to the New York Times, some of these may be staged by Russian “protest tourists” and Kiev officials say that Moscow is behind pro-Russia demonstrations in Ukraine.)

â&#128;&#139;13: The number of websites blocked by the Russian government because they had links to the Ukrainian anti-government protest movement. Russia’s internet monitoring agency accused them of “encouraging terrorist activity.”

$75 million: The amount ousted Ukrainian President Yanukovych allegedly spent building his mansion in 2012.

$115,000: The amount Yanukovych allegedly spent on a statue of a wild boar.

Less than $500: The average monthly income in Ukraine.

24 percent: The percentage of people across Ukraine who report Russian as their native language. In Crimea, that number rises to about 60 percent. According to the Brookings Institution, most Ukrainians speak and understand both Ukrainian and Russian.

845,000: The number of total armed forces in Russia. Ukraine has 129,950 troops, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and the BBC, which notes that there is no chance of NATO assisting Ukraine militarily.

40: The age cap for men in Ukraine who have been called to defend the country as part of Ukraine’s universal male conscription. According to Reuters, Ukraine will “struggle to find extra guns or uniforms for many of them.” (Ukrainian women don’t have the same obligation to serve.)

221: The number of combat aircraft owned by Ukraine, along with 17 combat vessels. Russia has 1,389 combat aircraft and 171 combat vessels, according to the BBC and IISS.

80 percent: The percentage of Russian gas exports to Europe that travel through Ukraine. Europe relies on Russia to supply 40 percent of its imported fuel. A regional expert told the New York Times that the primary gas pipelines passing through Ukraine supply Germany, Austria, and Italy. The global price of crude oil has risen 2 percent since the crisis began.

$60 billion: About the amount that Russian companies lost in a day after the Moscow stock market fell 10.8 percent on Monday, in wake of the crisis. The Central Bank of Russia has sold over $10 billion in US dollar reserves in order to revive the value of the Russian ruble.

37: The number of rubles needed to match the US dollar on Monday as the currency nose-dived in wake of the crisis.

8,500: The number of nuclear weapons that Russia has, according to a January 2014 report put out by the Ploughshares Fund. The United States has 7,700 nuclear weapons.

6: The number of Republican lawmakers who have criticized President Obama for how his administration has handled the crisis: Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), John McCain (R-Ariz.), and Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), and Reps. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) and Tom Cotton (R-Ark.)

0: US lawmakers who have suggested the United States send troops into Ukraine.

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The Ukraine-Russia Crisis in 26 Nail-Biting Numbers

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Is Putin Making a First Move to De-Escalate?

Mother Jones

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From the LA Times:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to a German proposal for international observers to review the tense standoff in Ukraine’s Crimea area, a Kremlin news service dispatch indicated Monday.

The proposal for a “contact group” of mediating foreign diplomats and an observer delegation to assess Moscow’s claims that ethnic Russians are threatened with violence under Ukraine’s new leadership was made by German Chancellor Angela Merkel during a late Sunday phone call to Putin, her spokesman told journalists in Berlin on Monday.

Is this for real, or is it just a stalling tactic? There’s no telling, of course. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s at least semi-real, since it could provide a convenient excuse to call a halt to things. And that’s something Putin probably wants. I don’t know what his long-term plans in Crimea are, but I doubt that he has any appetite for a military incursion into the rest of Ukraine. That’s not because he’s voluntarily showing a sense of restraint. It’s because Russia just doesn’t have the military to pull it off. A few thousand troops in South Ossetia or Crimea is one thing, but even a minimal military presence in eastern Ukraine would be orders of magnitude more difficult and expensive. Unless Putin has truly gone around the bend and is willing to risk another Afghanistan or another Chechnya, that’s just not in the cards.

A lot of American pundits are pretty cavalier about Russia’s military capabilities, assuming they can do anything they want simply because Putin is such a tough guy. But it’s just not so. The Russian military might be up to an intervention in eastern Ukraine, but it would take pretty much everything they have. This is not the Red Army of old.

It’s also the case that although Putin may put on a brave show, he’s well aware that intervention in Ukraine would unite the West against him in no uncertain terms. Those same pundits who are so cavalier about Russian military strength are also far too willing to take Putin’s bravado at face value. That’s a mistake. He doesn’t want Russia cut off from the West, and neither do his oligarch buddies. He may be willing to pay a price for his incursion into Crimea, but he’s not willing to keep paying forever. As long as Western pressure continues to ratchet up, at some point he’ll start looking for a way out.

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Is Putin Making a First Move to De-Escalate?

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A Wee Prediction About Ukraine

Mother Jones

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Following up on the previous post, if you do want to fret about Ukraine, I have just the thing for you. I’m going to tell you how this will all unfold:

  1. Vladimir Putin will do something belligerent. (Already done.)
  2. Republicans will demand that we show strength in the face of Putin’s provocation. Whatever it is that we’re doing, we should do more.
  3. President Obama will denounce whatever it is that Putin does. But regardless of how unequivocal his condemnation is, Bill Kristol will insist that he’s failing to support the democratic aspirations of the Ukrainian people.
  4. Journalists will write a variety of thumbsuckers pointing out that our options are extremely limited, what with Ukraine being 5,000 miles away and all.
  5. John McCain will appear on a bunch of Sunday chat shows to bemoan the fact that Obama is weak and no one fears America anymore.
  6. Having written all the “options are limited” thumbsuckers, journalists and columnists will follow McCain’s lead and start declaring that the crisis in Ukraine is the greatest foreign policy test of Obama’s presidency. It will thus supplant Afghanistan, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Iran, and North Korea for this honor.
  7. In spite of all the trees felled and words spoken about this, nobody will have any good ideas about what kind of action might actually make a difference. There will be scattered calls to impose a few sanctions here and there, introduce a ban on Russian vodka imports, convene NATO, demand a UN Security Council vote, etc. None of this will have any material effect.
  8. Obama will continue to denounce Putin. Perhaps he will convene NATO. For their part, Republicans will continue to insist that he’s showing weakness and needs to get serious.
  9. This will all continue for a while.
  10. In the end, it will all settle down into a stalemate, with Russia having thrown its weight around in its near abroad—just like it always has—and the West not having the leverage to do much about it.
  11. Ukraine will….

Actually, there’s no telling about #11. Maybe Ukraine will choose (or have foisted on them) a pro-Russian leader that Putin is happy with. Maybe east and west will split apart. Maybe a nominally pro-Western leader will emerge. Who knows? What we do know is that (a) the United States will play only a modest role in all this, and (b) conservative hawks will continue to think that if only we’d done just a little bit more, Putin would have blinked and Ukraine would be free.

You may now go about your regular weekend business.

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A Wee Prediction About Ukraine

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A Giant Union Is Planning to Protest the Oscars

Mother Jones

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The Oscars air Sunday, but this year, the stars of the silver screen will be faced with picket lines and protesters.

That’s because the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), which represents 2.1 million service workers around the world, plans to protest the Academy’s decision to hire Security Industry Specialists (SIS)—a company the union accuses of sexual harassment, racial discrimination, and worker intimidation—to provide security for awards night. (The company denies the allegations.)

“We don’t think the Academy should be using a company that has this kind of record,” SEIU campaign director Sam Kehinde explains. “All we are trying to do is make sure the public knows about it and the client knows.”

SEIU activists bearing banners and signs voiced their concerns at last week’s Nominee Lunch in Beverly Hills, but they were unable to relay their concerns to Academy representatives. Now, Kehinde says, the union is back for round two.

Over 100 SEIU activists—including current and former SIS employees—will converge near the Dolby Theatre on Friday afternoon in the hope of attracting attention from the public and entertainment industry officials who will be on site preparing for Sunday’s event, Kehinde says. The protesters plan to follow up with a smaller protest on Sunday, when it will be more difficult for a large group to gain access to the area.

Daivon Young, an SIS security specialist assigned to Amazon, is traveling all the way from Seattle to participate in the protest. He says he is scared about his job security and how he will be treated after speaking out against SIS, but “it is the right thing to do.”

Young has been an SIS employee for a year and a half and works at the high-security buildings. Though he is considered a specialist, he makes $15.50 an hour and is given 36 hours a week. He says he thinks the wage is good but many employees are only offered part-time work.

As the sole breadwinner supporting his three-month-old son, Malachai and his wife, Lavicy, Young’s concerned. “It is important for me to be able to provide for my family,” he says. “Me, growing up, I didn’t have a mom. I didn’t have my dad. Putting a roof over my son’s head—it means everything to me.”

Young describes the pressure he feels at work and says the simplest mistake will result in termination. He is often fearful about being penalized and says he feels belittled by his employers. Provoked by these concerns, he turned to the internet. “I wanted to look up reports about SIS,” he explains, “to see if the same things were going on somewhere else.” He landed on their “Union Facts” page, meant to derail and disprove the accusations SEIU laid against SIS. “It started naming all these things and, in my head I am thinking, ‘You do do that!” Young exclaims.

Daivon Young (Left) with his wife, Lavicy, their son, Malachai, and former SIS worker Richell Banks Courtesy SEIU

He says he had never considered the union before then and had been told explicitly as an employee he should not become involved with SEIU. “I understand now why we need a union,” he adds. This is why he hopes his participation in the protest will make a difference.

Tom Seltz, copresident and CFO of SIS, says the union’s allegations are unsubstantiated. He sees the Oscar protests as a form of harassment—a ploy for union officials to collect more money.

“I think the union is looking for dues and I don’t think there is much they can promise our employees that they aren’t already getting,” he says. “I don’t think there’s anything they can promise.”

Seltz says unions are unnecessary and says he sees no need for his employees to join. He emphasizes that it is still up to workers to make up their minds and denies claims that his company has used intimidation tactics to deter union involvement.

SIS pays employees higher than the average hourly wage for the industry, but only half of SIS workers are full time and receiving benefits. Seltz says this has more to do with the nature of the work and client needs than company policy, and that many SIS employees are off-duty police officers who can only work part-time or are hired to work temporarily for specific events.

But Steve Amitay, the executive director of the National Association of Security Companies, says the industry norm is to employ workers full time. “Currently the majority of security officers at most contract security companies are full-time employees,” he explains via email. Though Amitay acknowledges that there are instances when part-time work is warranted, he says that “some companies believe that the offer of part-time employment may deter the best job candidates and work against creating a dedicated and experienced workforce.”

Daivon Young says he hopes his presence at this weekend’s protest will help convince his company to be more supportive of unionization. “All I want done is for SIS to allow us to have a union,” he says. “We aren’t asking for extra mayonnaise and extra pickles. We just want to be treated right.”

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A Giant Union Is Planning to Protest the Oscars

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Most big countries have climate laws

Most big countries have climate laws

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It’s easy to get depressed about the lack of global progress in fighting climate change. But most large nations are at least taking some action.

GLOBE International, a London-based legislators’ group, surveyed climate- and energy-related laws and policies in 66 big countries, which together produce 88 percent of the world’s greenhouse gases. It found that that 62 of the countries have a flagship climate law or regulation, 61 have laws promoting clean energy, and 54 have energy-efficiency laws. In all, there are 487 climate change–related laws or policies in the 66 countries — a sharp increase from decades past:

GLOBE InternationalClick to embiggen.

“Overall, we report substantive legislative progress [last year] in 8 of the 66 countries, which passed flagship legislation, and some positive advances in a further 19 countries,” the report notes. 

But GLOBE International President John Gummer, a climate adviser to the U.K. government, warns that much more action is needed: “We should be clear that the legislative response thus far is not yet sufficient to limit emissions at a level that would cause only a 2 degree Celsius rise in global average temperature, the agreed goal of the international community.”

The following map shows which countries have the most climate-related laws and policies. The light green color of the U.S. indicates that it lags behind global leaders on tackling global warming. But at least it’s ahead of Canada.

GLOBE InternationalClick to embiggen.


Source
The GLOBE Climate Legislation Study, fourth edition, GLOBE International

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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Most big countries have climate laws

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Bummer for anti-Keystoners: Report finds no conflict of interest, despite obvious conflicts of interest

Bummer for anti-Keystoners: Report finds no conflict of interest, despite obvious conflicts of interest

Michael Fleshman

Environmental Resources Management, the consulting firm hired by the State Department to review the potential environmental effects of the Keystone XL pipeline, did all sorts of dodgy and deceptive stuff, but none of it amounted to serious rule breaking — at least according to the State Department’s inspector general.

The Office of Inspector General today published a report that found ERM did not violate the State Department’s conflict-of-interest rules as it bid for the Keystone contract and wrote its study. Climate activists and environmentalists had requested the investigation by the inspector general, and now they’re none too pleased with the results.

Last month, the State Department released the environmental impact study written by ERM. It found that Keystone would not have significant climate impacts, even though sections of the study actually contradict that top-level finding. Grist’s Ben Adler recently highlighted the top three flaws with the study.

Bloomberg has compiled a handy list of questionable behavior by ERM:

Beginning in June 2012, ERM failed:

• to disclose a possible conflict of interest to the State Department until two months after it won the contract, as reported by … Jim Snyder at Bloomberg News;

• to reconcile why ERM listed TransCanada as a client in its marketing materials the year before it began the Keystone contract, even though ERM and TransCanada had both told State that they had not worked together for at least five years;

• to acknowledge, until the summer of 2013, that one of its divisions (ERM West) was working alongside TransCanada on the Alaska Pipeline Project;

• to alert State, until it was already under scrutiny for conflicts of interest, that it was bidding on new contracts in western Canada that might include two new projects for TransCanada, first flagged by the Washington Post;

• to note, as Politico has, that as recently as 2010 it was part of a lobbying group, the International Carbon Black Association, that’s partly owned by TransCanada through a subsidiary (Cancarb), and that includes major Keystone XL proponents and potential beneficiaries;

• to mention that it’s listed as a member of several trade organizations that support Keystone XL, among them the Western Energy Alliance, the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, and the Louisiana Mid-Continent Oil and Gas Association;

• to explain why ERM subcontractors who had worked on TransCanada projects in the past were suddenly removed roughly 24 hours after they were first posted (in a PDF) on the Web, a gaffe that led to a scoop for Mother Jones when the contractor names reappeared later with their affiliations redacted. …

Far more alarming than any of the above, ERM also relied on another firm to complete its Keystone assessment—and that company, as it happens, is owned outright by a tar sands developer.

As reported by Inside Climate News, critical analysis of greenhouse gas emissions in the Keystone XL EIS relies on research by Jacobs Consultancy, “a subsidiary of Jacobs Engineering, a giant natural resources development company with extensive operations in Alberta’s tar sands fields. The engineering company has worked on dozens of major projects in the region over the years. Its most recent contract, with Canadian oil sands leader Suncor, was announced in January.”

Apparently none of that bothered the inspector general.

Here’s what Jason Kowalski of activist group 350.org had to say about today’s report: “Far from exonerating the State Department of wrongdoing, the Inspector General report simply concludes that such dirty dealings are business as usual.”

Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) argued that the inspector general’s report was too narrow. It focused, he said, on “whether the State Department followed its own flawed process for selecting a third-party contractor. The fact that the answer is ‘yes’ doesn’t address any outstanding concerns about the integrity of ERM’s work, the State Department’s in-house ability to evaluate its quality or whether the process itself needs to be reformed.”

Just yesterday, Grijalva asked the Government Accountability Office to do a separate investigation into State’s process for vetting contractors, and he says the GAO is planning to act on his request.

Meanwhile, anti-Keystone activists are gearing up for yet another arrest-provoking protest in front of the White House on Sunday. More on that coming soon.

Lisa Hymas is senior editor at Grist. You can follow her on Twitter and Google+.Find this article interesting? Donate now to support our work.Read more: Business & Technology

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Bummer for anti-Keystoners: Report finds no conflict of interest, despite obvious conflicts of interest

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How US Evangelicals Helped Create Russia’s Anti-Gay Movement

Mother Jones

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In November 2010, Russia’s Sanctity of Motherhood organization kicked off its first-ever national conference. The theme, according to its organizers, was urgent: solving “the crisis of traditional family values” in a modernizing Russia. The day opened with a sextet leading 1,000 swaying attendees in a prayer. Some made the sign of the cross, others bowed or raised their arms to the sky before settling into the plush red and gold seats of the conference hall at Moscow’s Christ the Savior Cathedral.

On the second morning of the conference, the only American in attendance, a tall, collected man, stepped up for his speech. Larry Jacobs, vice president of the Rockford, Illinois-based World Congress of Families (WCF), an umbrella organization for the US religious right’s heavy hitters, told the audience that American evangelicals had a 40-year track record of “defending life and family” and they hoped to be “true allies” in Russia’s traditional values crusade.

The gathering marked the beginning of the family values fervor that has swept Russia in recent years. Warning that low birth rates are a threat to the long-term survival of the Russian people, politicians have been pushing to restrict abortion and encourage bigger families. Among the movement’s successes is a law that passed last summer and garnered global outrage in the run-up to the Sochi Winter Olympics, banning “propaganda of nontraditional sexual relations to minors,” a vague term that has been seen as effectively criminalizing any public expression of same-sex relationships.

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How US Evangelicals Helped Create Russia’s Anti-Gay Movement

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Is "House of Cards’" Most Principled New Character Also a War Criminal?

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Democratic congresswoman and war vet Jacqueline Sharp (played by Molly Parker) is one of the most sympathetic characters on the Netflix political drama House of Cards. In a series populated by dark, purely self-interested, and/or corrupt characters, Sharp is something of a refreshing outlier. She is smart and strong, particularly when in a room of cynical, powerful old men. She is generally a kind and upfront person. She demonstrates an aversion to unethical deal-making. And she isn’t a heartless mass-manipulator on the scale of Vice President Francis Underwood (Kevin Spacey).

“I don’t think that this character is a sociopath. I think that she has a conscience,” Parker said of her character. “I think that she’s a principled woman in terms of her point of view, her perspective as a soldier.”

However likeable or principled she may be, could she also be the show’s first war criminal?

In the first episode of season two, Underwood informs Sharp that he wishes to have her succeed him as House Majority Whip. When she asks why he is so adamant, the morally bankrupt Underwood reveals that he picked her because of her “ruthless pragmatism” in wartime. He asks her about the number of missile strikes she ordered during the war, and how she ordered them knowing many innocent women and children would perish in the attacks. “I had orders to eliminate the enemy,” she says, rationalizing the civilian casualties. “I watched apartment buildings, entire villages, gone, like they were never there.”

Her actions clearly haunt her. In a subsequent episode, when she is in bed with her lover, she confesses in sorrow that she “killed a lot of people,” before she tells him to continue bringing her to climax.

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Is "House of Cards’" Most Principled New Character Also a War Criminal?

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