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USDA says crops will do better but food prices will do worse

USDA says crops will do better but food prices will do worse

It’s more cold comfort for drought-stricken farmers this week, and I don’t mean the snow.

USDA chief economist Joe Glauber was all sunshine this Thursday in announcing that normal spring weather is expected to improve corn and soybean yields by huge percentages over last year’s tiny drought-stricken crops. Bigger yields mean tinier prices — Glauber said corn would be down about a third from last year, soy would drop more than a quarter, and wheat would be down about 11 percent.

From the South Dakota Argus Leader:

The recovery should send prices for most oilseeds and grains sharply lower, providing a much-needed reprieve for livestock, dairy and poultry producers struggling with high feed costs, and relief down the road for consumers who have paid more for food at their local grocery store. …

“The critical factor that people will be following is weather,” Glauber said at the department’s annual outlook forum. “While the outlook for 2013 remains bright, there are many uncertainties.”

Way to bury the lede, Glauber. No matter how many times Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says “American agriculture is quite resilient,” there still remains the fact that American agriculture is also in crisis, and forecasters are expecting more hot and dry weather this year.

And even though industrial prices are dropping, the savings won’t trickle down to consumers for at least quite some time — the USDA anticipates food prices will rise this year between 3 and 4 percent.

Richard Volpe, an economist with USDA’s Economic Research Service, said the evidence of last year’s drought is just now starting to really have an effect on consumer prices at the retail level, resulting in higher costs for everything from meat to corn syrup.

Dammit, if it were only meat and corn syrup and not also everything in between…

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USDA says crops will do better but food prices will do worse

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Sen. Reid proposes chopping $4 billion in oil subsidies to help the economy

Sen. Reid proposes chopping $4 billion in oil subsidies to help the economy

A bit of surprising news this morning: The economy actually shrank in the fourth quarter of 2012. It was only down by an annual rate of 0.1 percent, but it had been expected to grow by 1.1 percent. And it didn’t drop because of burdensome regulation or slow job growth. It dropped because of the Pentagon.

From The Washington Post:

[F]ederal defense spending fell at an astounding 22.2 percent annual rate in the quarter, which subtracted 1.28 percentage points from GDP growth. That was in part a reversal from the unusual 12.9 percent gain in the third quarter. But when the two quarters are averaged together, the defense sector was a drag on the economy in the second half of 2012 — and that’s before a “sequester” of automatic defense cuts goes into effect this year if Congress doesn’t act to avert it.

That “sequester” is the result of a poison pill that Congress administered to itself. Last year, knowing full well that Congress couldn’t be trusted to get anything done without some sort of threat hanging over its head, Congress decided to force Congress to act, passing a bill that created huge, automatic spending cuts unless Congress got its act together and figured out a budget package. Well, Congress was not smart enough to avoid Congress’ trap, so now those $1.2 trillion in budget cuts are slated to go into effect.

At the end of 2012, the Pentagon saw those cuts looming; this week, it announced 46,000 layoffs. If the full weight of the cuts go into effect, the damage to the economy could be severe.

Enter Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) with an idea. From Environment and Energy Daily:

Reid said Senate Democrats would discuss their plan to deal with the looming cuts known as “sequestration” at their party retreat next week. But during his weekly media briefing yesterday, he hinted that perennial efforts to eliminate tax preferences for oil and gas companies could offset some of the cuts. Rather than slash spending, Reid said Democrats were coalescing around an approach that would “pay for” the sequester with additional revenue. …

But Democrats in Congress and President Obama have previously proposed eliminating about $4 billion per year in permanent tax incentives claimed by the oil industry, such as the so-called Section 199 domestic manufacturing tax break and the “intangible drilling costs” deduction. The push has been expected to resume as part of this year’s budget battles.

The first thing I’ll note is that $4 billion is a little bit less than $1.2 trillion, so some other measures might need to be implemented. The second thing I’ll note is that cutting those tax incentives for the oil and gas industry is maybe the most obvious and theoretically simple budget cut that has ever existed in the history of this great Republic, and yet somehow, time after time, it doesn’t happen. I understand that members of Congress from both sides of the aisle would rather not antagonize a powerful and wealthy industry. But it’s so obviously the right decision and the arguments against it are so obviously weak — it will damage Exxon’s profits? it’s too small to make any difference? — that it’s utterly baffling that so little progress has been made.

Reid is tying two different issues together for the sake of playing politics. Allowing the sequester to move forward is a bad idea, as this morning’s numbers showed. Continuing to hand $4 billion in incentives to oil companies is a bad idea, as the entire recent history of the United States has shown. The proper course of action on both of these things is so obvious as to induce headaches.

Then, it is also obvious that writing massive cuts into law to try and force yourself to act on avoiding massive cuts is stupid. And so here we are.

Update: Right as we published this story, the White House piled onto the idea:

“The idea that you need to subsidize an industry that has enjoyed record profits — that taxpayers have to subsidize it — just doesn’t make sense in a time when we have to make choices about how best to use our resources,” White House spokesman Jay Carney said during a Wednesday news conference.

Making it more likely that an end to oil subsidies will be a negotiating chip for a unified Democratic push moving forward — as it has been before.

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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GOP Congressman’s first priority: Party with the coal lobby

GOP Congressman’s first priority: Party with the coal lobby

Meet Andy Barr.

Gage Skidmore

No, not the guy with the winning smile and the lapel pin in the foreground. The guy doing the deer-in-headlights impression in the background. That’s Andy. Or, rather, that’s Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.), as of a few hours ago.

Barr was elected to the House last November, running on the Republican/Coal ticket. We noted his contribution to the GOP convention, which consisted of hugging a piece of coal as he walked around Tampa. Probably not literally, but who knows.

Anyway, it’s only fitting that Barr has chosen as the location of his swearing-in party, that celebration of his officially becoming a member of Congress, the headquarters of the National Mining Association. From BoldProgressives.org:

During his campaign, he even had a coal company executive pose as a miner for a commercial he cut. We’ve just been passed on a list of Congressional swearing-in and inaugural parties today, and it turns out Barr is having his party today from 5:30-7:30 PM ET at the National Mining Association (NMA), one of the chief lobbying organizations for Big Coal.

BoldProgressives notes that NMA gave Barr $5,000 for his campaign; he raised a solid $178,000 from mining interests in total. Celebrate good times, come on!

This will not be the first time Barr has been at NMA headquarters. Last September, during his campaign, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) hosted a reception for Barr in the organization’s offices.

Nor, I suspect, will tonight be the last time Barr shows up at NMA headquarters. Maybe they should just give him a little office and a desk. If someone needs to cast a vote, I’m sure the NMA would happily send a staffer over to the Capitol to do that hard work.

Hat-tip: Paul Rauber

Source

Kentucky Republican holding congressional swearing-in party at headquarters of coal lobby, BoldProgressives

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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GOP Congressman’s first priority: Party with the coal lobby

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