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Republicans Will Never Allow Guantánamo To Be Closed

Mother Jones

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I guess you can add this to the list of President Obama’s executive actions designed to circumvent an unhelpful Republican Congress:

In a series of secret nighttime flights in the last two months, the Obama administration made more progress toward the president’s goal of emptying the military prison at Guantánamo Bay…Now 127 prisoners remain at Guantánamo, down from 680 in 2003, and the Pentagon is ready to release two more groups of prisoners in the next two weeks; officials will not provide a specific number.

President Obama’s goal in the last two years of his presidency is to deplete the Guantánamo prison to the point where it houses 60 to 80 people and keeping it open no longer makes economic sense.

Hmmm. Will Republicans be willing to close Guantánamo if it no longer makes economic sense to keep it open? Color me skeptical. This is a tough-on-terrorism issue, not a budget issue. If I had to guess, I’d say that Republicans would refuse to close Guantánamo if there were even a single prisoner left there. If it becomes a US version of Spandau, well, that’s just fine. Closing it is for appeasing, weak-kneed, liberals, not rock-jawed severe conservatives.

In fact, I could easily see this becoming a stock question during the Republican primaries. “Would you ever close Guantánamo?” The candidates will then take turns trying to top each other with ever more absurdly hawkish answers, the same way they did with immigration in 2012. Like this:

Candidate 1: I will never close Guantánamo. These are the most dangerous people in the world.

Candidate 2: Not only wouldn’t I close it, I’d expand it.

Candidate 3: Expand it and make it more secure. I’d build a moat.

Candidate 4: And an electrified fence.

Candidate 5: I’d take away their Obamacare!

At that, everyone would look admiringly at Candidate 5 and silently give him the victory.

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Republicans Will Never Allow Guantánamo To Be Closed

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Future Scientist Investigates Ice, Falls Adorably, Wins Everything

Mother Jones

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This video is from last year but it popped up on Digg today and I really don’t care that it’s old because today is the first real work day of 2015 and that’s sad because work and the passage of time are two of the main reasons I’m going prematurely gray. So, instead of letting that frown sit unturned upside down, press play and, awwwww.

Here is a GIF of the moment when, in Mother Jones copy editor Ian Gordon’s words, “someone takes her batteries out.”

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Future Scientist Investigates Ice, Falls Adorably, Wins Everything

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Without Fox News, There Would Have Been No Iraq War

Mother Jones

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Max Ehrenfreund points to an interesting tidbit this morning. A pair of researchers have released a working paper that attempts to figure out if watching Fox News makes you more conservative. They do this by exploiting the fact that channel numbers on cable systems are placed fairly randomly throughout the country, and people tend to watch channels with lower numbers. Thus, in areas where Fox has a low channel number, it gets watched a little bit more in a way that has nothing to do with whether the local viewers were more conservative in the first place.

So does randomly surfing over to Fox News tend to make you more right-wing? Yes indeed! “We estimate that Fox News increases the likelihood of voting Republican by 0.9 points among viewers induced into watching four additional minutes per week by differential channel positions.” And this in turn means that we owe the Iraq War to Fox News: “We estimate that removing Fox News from cable television during the 2000 election cycle would have reduced the average county’s Republican vote share by 1.6 percentage points.”

And what about MSNBC? It had no effect until the 2008 election, after it had made the switch to liberal prime-time programming. At that point, it becomes pretty similar to Fox in the opposite direction. But the effect is subtly different:

The largest elasticity magnitudes are on individuals from the opposite ideology of the channel, with Fox generally better at influencing Democrats than MSNBC is at influencing Republicans. This last feature is consistent with the regression result that the IV effect of Fox is greater than the corresponding effect for MSNBC.

….Table 16 shows the estimated persuasion rates of the channels at converting votes from one party to the other. The numerator here is the number of, for example, Fox News viewers who are initially Democrats but by the end of an election cycle change to supporting the Republican party. The denominator is the number of Fox News viewers who are initially Democrats. Again, Fox is more effective at converting viewers than is MSNBC.

The difference in persuasion rates is significant: the study finds that in the 2008 election, a full 50 percent of Fox’s left-of-center viewers switched to supporting Republicans. For MSNBC, the number of switchers was only 30 percent. That’s a big difference.

Now, in real-world terms this is still a smallish effect since neither channel has a lot of regular viewers from the opposite ends of their ideological spectrums in the first place. Still, this is interesting. I’ve always believed that conservatives in general, and Fox in particular, are better persuaders than liberals, and this study seems to confirm that. But why? Is Fox’s conservatism simply more consistent throughout the day, thus making it more effective? Is there something about the particular way Fox pushes hot buttons that makes it more effective at persuading folks near the center? Or is Fox just average, and MSNBC is unusually poor at persuading people? I can easily believe, for example, that Rachel Maddow’s snark-based approach persuades very few conservative leaners to switch sides.

Anyway, fascinating stuff, even if none of it comes as a big surprise. Fox really has had a big effect on Republican fortunes over the past two decades.

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Without Fox News, There Would Have Been No Iraq War

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Friday Cat Blogging – 2 January 2015

Mother Jones

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Let’s start off 2015 right. Today Hilbert gets catblogging all to himself. Why? Because he’s just that magnificent, that’s why. This is sort of a reverse-selfie, the kind of picture Hilbert would take if he didn’t have a servant to take it for him. But he does. Life is good.

Of course, he doesn’t quite have catblogging all to himself. Hopper is back there waiting her turn. How did she manage to photobomb this picture? That’s easy. Around here, if you just point a camera randomly in any direction, you have at least even odds of a cat showing up. This is the sign of a properly run household.

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Friday Cat Blogging – 2 January 2015

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Happy New Year! This Is the Best NYE Scene Hollywood Has Ever Made.

Mother Jones

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Happy New Year! This Is the Best NYE Scene Hollywood Has Ever Made.

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Vladimir Putin’s Russia: Criticize the Government and Your Family Will Be Locked Up in a Penal Colony

Mother Jones

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The show trial of one of Vladimir Putin’s chief political critics ended today. He was convicted and banned from political office for ten years, but the sentence was suspended and he immediately joined a protest march upon his release. So what happened next?

The police in Moscow briefly detained the anticorruption crusader and political opposition leader Aleksei A. Navalny on Tuesday as he tried to join an unauthorized, antigovernment rally, just hours after a Moscow court had given him a suspended sentence on criminal fraud charges. Yet, in a sign of how unwilling the authorities are to make a martyr of Mr. Navalny, they said later that the police were merely escorting him back to his home, Interfax reported.

Well, that’s not so bad. Maybe Putin is lightening up a bit. Except for one little thing:

His brother Oleg was jailed for three and a half years for the same offence….Navalny’s supporters said the Kremlin was returning to the sinister Soviet-era practice of punishing the relatives of those it disliked. Upon hearing the verdict, mumbled quietly by the judge, Yelena Korobchenko, Alexei Navalny rolled his eyes and looked at his brother.

….Oleg Navalny is the father of two small children and a former executive of the state-owned postal service. Unlike his better known brother, he has never played a role in the Russian opposition movement. His imprisonment in a penal colony seems to echo the Soviet-era practice of arresting the relatives of “inconvenient” people.

So they let Aleksei go free in order to keep him from being a martyr, but tossed his brother into prison as a hostage to his good behavior. Charming. A spokesman admitted that Putin “had been aware of the Navalny case, but that Tuesday’s ruling ‘isn’t important enough to merit a special report’ to the president.” I actually believe this. For Putin, it’s just another day at the office.

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Vladimir Putin’s Russia: Criticize the Government and Your Family Will Be Locked Up in a Penal Colony

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There Are Several Thousand Secret Photos of America’s Horrific Torture Program. Should Obama Release Them?

Mother Jones

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“Sideburnz” posted this photo on an amateur porn site in 2005. Caption: “Cooked Iraqi.” NowThatsFuckedUp.com

You may recall, from the dark days of Abu Ghraib, that there was a batch of photos that was never released—images the Pentagon deemed so inflammatory that they needed to stay under wraps. The ones we saw were disturbing enough: the piles of naked Iraqi prisoners, the soldier giving a thumbs up next to an ice-packed corpse, the prisoners being menaced by dogs. And who can forget that iconic shot of a hooded man (his name is Ali Shalil Qaissi), standing on a box in a shower with wires attached to his fingers—a mock execution. There are as many as 2,100 additional images, according to the ACLU, which sued the government in 2004 demanding their release. President Obama has resisted the legal efforts, noting in a statement that to make the photos public would “impact the safety of our troops.”

Newsweek‘s Lauren Walker nicely summarizes the developments so far, some of which my colleague Nick Baumann has also covered, so here’s the upshot: In August, a federal judge gave the administration an ultimatum: either release the photos or provide evidence for each image explaining why publishing it would be detrimental to national security. On December 19, the administration indicated that it would take the latter course, and a hearing on the new evidence has been set for January 20.

In his earlier statement, Obama noted that “the publication of these photos would not add any additional benefit to our understanding of what was carried out in the past by a small number of individuals.” But here’s the problem: It wasn’t just a small number of individuals. Only the small fry were punished, to be sure, but the culpability extends way up the chain of command. So while another prominent photo release might inspire attacks on American interests, there’s a more fundamental question: Should our government be allowed to hide its fuckups just because our enemies might use them against us?

Because the concealed images, the ACLU told Newsweek, aren’t simply more examples of abuse:

“One of the reasons we’ve been fighting for so long for these photographs is because the official narrative following the disclosure of the Abu Ghraib photos was that those abuses were the result of a few bad apples,” says Alex Abdo, an ACLU staff attorney working on the case since 2005.

“These photographs come from at least seven different detention facilities throughout Afghanistan and Iraq…. We think this would once and for all end the myth that the abuse that took place at Abu Ghraib was an aberration,” he says. “It was essentially official policy. It was widespread at different facilities under different commanders.”

Even when there’s not a tacit mission to soften up prisoners for anonymous CIA operatives, as there was at Abu Ghraib, individual soldiers aren’t solely to blame for their odious behavior. By putting inadequately trained men and women into chaotic, high-stress, wartime situations with minimal oversight, the brass basically guarantees that this kind of thing is going to happen.

Consider this exchange between Stanford psychologist Phil Zimbardo and former Staff Sgt. Ivan “Chip” Frederick, who got an eight-year prison sentence for his role in the Abu Ghraib horrorshow. (He was the guy who staged the mock execution.) The interview is from Zimbardo’s 2007 book, The Lucifer Effect, which is about how good people placed in bad situations end up doing abhorrent things.

Zimbardo: Please tell me about your training to be a guard, a guard leader, in Abu Ghraib prison.

Frederick: None. No training for this job. When we mobilized at Fort Lee, we had a cultural awareness class, maybe it was about 45 minutes long, and it was basically about not to discuss politics, not to discuss religion, and not to call ’em “Aayrabs,” don’t call ’em “Camel Jockeys,” “Towel Heads” or not to call ’em “Rag Heads.”

Zimbardo: How would you describe the supervision you received and the accountability you felt you had toward your superior officers?

Frederick: None.

Frederick worked 12-hour shifts, Zimbardo noted, from 4 p.m. through 4 a.m. He worked seven days a week and at one point 40 days straight. After his shift, he would go off to sleep in a filthy cell in another part of the prison. His superior officer—and his boss, and his—almost never showed face on the prison tier while Frederick was working. But he offered them feedback anyway.

Zimbardo: You would make recommendations?

Frederick: Yes, about operation of the facility. Not to handcuff prisoners to cell doors, should not have prisoners nude, except for self-mutilators, can’t handle prisoners with mental conditions…One of the first things that I asked for as soon as I got there was regulations, operating procedures…I was housing juveniles, men, women, and mentally ill prisoners all in the same wing. It’s a violation of the military code.

Zimbardo: So you would try to get up the chain of command?

Frederick: I would tell anybody that would come in who I thought had some ranking…Unsually they would tell me, “Just see what you can come up with, keep up the good work, this is the way military intelligence wants it done.”

There are other horrific photos floating around, too. Back in 2005, when I was managing editor at the Oakland-based alt-weekly East Bay Express, reporter Chris Thompson came upon a shocking story that no other American media outlet had reported. Service members were posting grisly images of Iraqi corpses and body parts, many with demeaning captions, on a website in exchange for free access to porn. (One of the tamest is shown above.) “If accurate, these are gruesome depictions of deceased people in Iraq, and that violates the standards of our values, training, and procedures that we ask military personnel to observe and obey,” an Army spokesman told the Washington Post, which ran a followup piece.

The military struck a similar tone in January 2012, when then Mother Jones reporter Adam Weinstein and senior editor Mark Follman wrote about a YouTube video that showed a group of Marines urinating on enemy corpses in Afghanistan—a pretty clear violation of the Geneva Conventions. “The actions portrayed are not consistent with our core values and are not indicative of the character of the Marines in our Corps,” a spokesman said.

Perhaps. Yet whoever trained those men, and whoever trained the guys who traded gore for porn, and whoever designed and oversaw that training failed to make the trainees understand that their unbecoming actions, even in a combat situation, could degrade America’s image and endanger the lives of their fellow soldiers as surely as if they’d handed the enemy a crate of AK-47s.

And there’s the real problem. Nobody wants to see more horrific images and nobody wants to put people’s lives at risk. But the national-security establishment has a record of creating the atmosphere for abuses and then throwing individuals under the bus when those abuses come to light. A new batch of photos, it seems, may be just what we need to confront these seemingly ceaseless failures of leadership.

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There Are Several Thousand Secret Photos of America’s Horrific Torture Program. Should Obama Release Them?

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Chart of the Day: Hooray for the Economy!

Mother Jones

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Yesterday featured several gloomy posts—strictly a coincidence, I assure you—so today here’s some good news. Matt Yglesias passes along the word that for the first time since the Great Recession, Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index broke into positive territory this week. Here’s Gallup’s explanation for the steady rise since mid-September:

While various factors likely contribute to the rise in economic confidence, the weekly average price of gas in the U.S. began to fall precipitously in the late summer and, over the last four months, the price has fallen by nearly 30% — an economic boon to most Americans. In fact, for the week of Dec. 22, the average price of gasoline was as low as it has been since the first half of 2009. Additionally, the U.S. stock market rose in December to its highest levels in history while Gallup’s unemployment rate fell to the lowest since its daily tracking began in January 2008.

So there you have it. A little late to help Democrats in the November midterms, but not too late for 2016.

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Chart of the Day: Hooray for the Economy!

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Obama’s Foreign Policy: Frustrating, Perhaps, But Better Than Most of the Alternatives

Mother Jones

I guess I missed this in the coverage yesterday about the official end of the war in Afghanistan:

The ceremony in Kabul honoring 13 years of mostly-American and British troops fighting and dying in Afghanistan had to be held in a secret location because the war has gone so badly that even the capital city is no longer safe from the Taliban.

That’s from Max Fisher, who also provides us today with a “highly subjective and unscientific report card for US foreign policy.” As top ten lists go, this one is worth reading as a set of interesting provocations, though I think Fisher errs by focusing too heavily on military conflicts. There’s more to foreign policy than war. Beyond that, I think he often ends up grading President Obama too harshly by judging him against ideal outcomes rather than the best plausible outcomes. Giving him a C+ regarding ISIS might be fair, for example, since it’s quite possible that quicker action could have produced a better result1. But a D- on Israel-Palestine? Certainly the situation itself deserves at least that low a grade, but is there really anything Obama could have done to make better progress there? I frankly doubt it. I’d also give him a higher grade than Fisher does on Ukraine and Syria (I think that staying out of the Syrian civil war was the right policy even though the results are obviously horrific), but a lower grade on China (A+? Nothing could have gone better?).

Overall, I continue to think that Obama’s foreign policy has been better than he gets credit for. He’s made plenty of mistakes, but that’s par for the course in international affairs. There are too many moving parts involved, and the US has too little leverage over most of them, to expect great outcomes routinely. When I look at some of the worst situations in the world (Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Israel-Palestine) I mostly see places that the US simply has little control over once you set aside straight-up military interventions. Unfortunately, that’s a big problem: the mere perception that an intervention is conceivable colors how we view these situations.

Take the long, deadly war in the Congo, for example. Nobody blames Obama for this because nobody wants us to send troops to the Congo—and everyone understands that once a military response is off the table, there’s very little we can do there. Conversely, we do blame Obama for deadly civil wars in places like Iraq and Syria. Why? Not really for any good reason. It’s simply because there’s a hawkish domestic faction in US politics that thinks we should intervene in those places. This, however, doesn’t change the facts on the ground—namely that intervention would almost certainly be disastrous. It just changes the perception of whether the US has options, and thus responsibility.

But that’s a lousy way of looking at things. US military intervention in the broad Middle East, from Lebanon to Somalia to Afghanistan to Iraq to Libya, has been uniformly calamitous. In most cases it’s not only not helped, but made things actively worse. No matter what Bill Kristol and John McCain say, the plain fact is that there’s very little the US can do militarily to influence the brutal wars roiling the Middle East and Central Asia. Once you accept that, Obama’s recognition of reality looks pretty good.

For the record, I’d give Obama an A or a B for his responses to Syria and Ukraine. Is that crazy? Perhaps. But the hard truth is that these are just flatly horrible situations that the US has limited control over. When I consider all the possible responses in these regions, and how badly they could have turned out, Obama’s light hand looks pretty good.

1Or maybe not. But it’s plausible that it might have.

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Obama’s Foreign Policy: Frustrating, Perhaps, But Better Than Most of the Alternatives

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Millennials and Comic Books: Chill Out, Haters

Mother Jones

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Saul DeGrew surveys the various complaints people have about the Millennial generation. Here’s one:

Another part of the Millennial complaint brigade is complaining about how they are still into videogames, comic books, and other activities from their childhood….I admit that I find this aspect of the Millennials staying Kids debate to be a bit troublesome but that is probably my own snobbery and cultural elitism coming in more than anything else. I don’t quite understand how explosion and bang wow movies are still big among a good chunk of the over-30 set.

Forget videogames: that’s a huge industry that spans all generations these days. Their popularity says nothing about arrested adulthood. But I was curious: just how many Millennials are still reading comic books? Not just “interested” in comics or willing to see the latest X-Men movie. DeGrew may not like “bang wow” movies, but they’ve been a pretty standard part of Hollywood’s product mix forever, and the current fad for superhero bang wow movies doesn’t say much of anything about Millennial culture in particular.

So: how many actual readers of comic books are there among Millennials? I don’t know, but here’s a guess:

  1. Diamond Comic Distributors sold about 84 million comics in 2013. Diamond is damn near a monopoly, but it’s not a total monopoly, and that number is only for the top 300 titles anyway. So let’s round up to 100 million.
  2. That’s about 8 million per month. Some comic fans buy two or three titles a month, others buy 20 or 30. A horseback guess suggests that the average fan buys 5-10 per month.
  3. That’s maybe 1.5 million regular fans, give or take. If we figure that two-thirds are Millennials, that’s a million readers.
  4. The total size of the Millennial generation is 70 million. But let’s be generous and assume that no one cares if teenagers and college kids are still reading comics. Counting only those over 22, the adult Millennial population is about 48 million.
  5. So that means about 2 percent of adult Millennials are regular comic book readers. (If you just browse through your roomie’s stash sporadically without actually buying comics, you don’t count.)

I dunno. I’d say that 2 percent really isn’t much. Sure, superheroes pervade popular culture in a way they haven’t before, though they’ve always been popular. Adults watched Superman on TV in the 50s, Batman on TV in 60s, and Superman again on the big screen in the 80s. But the rise of superhero movies in the 90s and aughts has as much to do with the evolution of special effects as with superheroes themselves. Older productions couldn’t help but look cheesy. Modern movies actually make superheroes look believable. Science fiction movies have benefited in the same way.

In any case, superheroes may be a cultural phenomenon of the moment—just ask anyone who tries to brave the San Diego Comic-Con these days—but even if you accept the argument that reading comics is ipso facto a marker of delayed adulthood1, the actual number of Millennials who do this is pretty small. So chill out on the comics, Millennial haters.

1I don’t. I’m just saying that even if you do, there aren’t really a huge number of Millennial-aged comic fans anyway.

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Millennials and Comic Books: Chill Out, Haters

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