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Obama Is the Guy Who Made America Work Again

Mother Jones

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The theme of the convention tonight was supposed to be “Make America Work Again.” But Donald Trump has a famously short attention span, and apparently that’s spilled over into the scheduling of the entire convention. As near as I can tell, not a single person talked about jobs and the economy except maybe soap opera star Kimberlin Brown, who grows avocadoes and spent several minutes railing against Obamacare.

However, I didn’t watch every minute of the convention, so maybe I missed one of the early C-list speakers talking about jobs. On the off chance that this happened, I have two charts for you. First, here’s a re-up of one of my favorites, showing that Republicans did everything they possibly could to keep America from recovering while Obama was president:

As you can see from the various red and orange lines, Republicans were eager to increase spending for Reagan, Bush Jr., and Bush Sr.—at least until he lost the election and Clinton took over. Then they cut back. For Obama, they depressed public spending from the start. That’s the blue line. Today, more than six years after the official end of the recession, public spending is more than 20 points lower than the trendline for Reagan and Bush.

Nonetheless, check out Obama’s record on job growth:

Even with two big tax cuts and a housing bubble, Bush Jr. managed to create only 10.9 million jobs. Obama, even with the headwind of Republican obstruction, has created 13.1 million jobs so far.

You can decide for yourself how much credit presidents deserve for the strength of the economy on their watch. But one thing is sure: Obama started with the worst recession since World War II, and six years later he’s created over 13 million jobs; the unemployment rate is under 5 percent; inflation is low; and the economy is growing faster than nearly any other rich country. Imagine what he could have done if Republicans hadn’t stood in his way the entire time.

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Obama Is the Guy Who Made America Work Again

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The 5 Best Moments of the Republican Convention: Tuesday Edition

Mother Jones

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Today was just plain boring compared with yesterday. Still, I guess I can dig up five favorite moments:

Trump campaign defends Melania Trump’s plagiarism by saying, “This concept that Michelle Obama invented the English language is absurd.”
The official theme of the evening, “Make America Work Again,” is completely missing in action. Does that count as a moment? A non-moment? Whatever it is, it makes the list.
In its place, “Lock her up” turns into the official slogan of the evening.
Donald Trump Jr., the son of a famously flamboyant billionaire, rails against the “self-satisfied people at the top, our new aristocrats.”
Ben Carson tells us that Saul Alinsky dedicated his book to Lucifer; Hillary Clinton wrote a college thesis about Alinsky; therefore Clinton is…a Satan worshipper?

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The 5 Best Moments of the Republican Convention: Tuesday Edition

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Sanders’ final win: Climate action in the Democratic platform

Sanders’ final win: Climate action in the Democratic platform

By on Jul 11, 2016 10:01 amShare

Pushed left by backers of Senator Bernie Sanders, Democratic leaders adopted a draft platform over the weekend that commits the party to a more aggressive stance on climate change — more aggressive, in some areas, than the positions of the party’s presumptive nominee.

Appointees of Sanders and Hillary Clinton met in Orlando to hammer out the party’s policy goals in advance of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia later this month, where the platform will be formally adopted by delegates.

The negotiating sessions went past midnight and were described by committee members as the most contentious in decades, due to Sanders’ stronger-than-expected showing in the primaries, which resulted in the party giving him unusual influence over the platform. The draft language agreed to Sunday morning includes an endorsement to support “every tool available to reduce emissions now,” which most significantly includes an endorsement for pricing carbon. “Democrats believe that carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases should be priced to reflect their negative externalities, and to accelerate the transition to a clean energy economy and help meet our climate goals,” the draft reads.

A carbon tax was part of Sanders’ big push on climate policy during the primary race, while Clinton has resisted calling for anything that can be misconstrued as a tax hike in an election year.

Putting a price  on carbon isn’t controversial policy if you’re talking to an economist. But Clinton’s campaign has justified keeping its distance by saying climate change “is too important to wait for climate deniers in Congress to pass comprehensive climate legislation,” i.e., a carbon tax.

Clinton will be sticking to that reasoning regardless of what the party platform says. “Her plan is clearly articulated on her website,” Clinton Energy Policy Adviser Trevor Houser said this weekend, according to the Associated Press. “It’s not her plan.” The campaign did not return a request for comment.

That indicates the limited reach of the party platform. Although it’s designed to articulate the positions of the party as a whole, individual politicians — even the party’s standard-bearer — aren’t bound to it. But Sanders has indicated that one of his main goals is to push the party as a whole toward more dramatic action on issues like climate change, and the platform provides the best articulation yet of that direction.

The draft platform hammered out over the weekend includes a few other small nods to Sanders’ climate positions. It marks the official death among Democrats of the once-popular talking point that natural gas can be “a bridge fuel” to renewables. The platform now pits clean energy against gas, by incentivizing wind, solar, and renewables over new natural gas-fired power plants.

The draft also reflects a change in the left’s thinking after President Obama’s rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline last year, stating that Democrats should “ensure federal actions don’t ‘significantly exacerbate’ global warming” before supporting new infrastructure projects.

Progressive Democrats hardly got everything they wanted, particularly on the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, which Obama strongly supports over the objections of many environmentalists, and a nationwide ban on fracking. The platform committee settled on Clinton’s proposal to regulate fracking’s methane emissions and impact on water quality, instead of calling for the Sanders-preferred nationwide ban.

Despite some mixed outcomes, Sanders feels he has won enough in the party’s platform to finally take himself out of the running for the Oval. He’s expected to endorse Clinton on Tuesday.

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Sanders’ final win: Climate action in the Democratic platform

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Bernie Sanders earned $205,000 in 2014

Mother Jones

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Earlier today I noted that someone who earns $200,000 pays an average federal income tax rate of 15 percent. Well, it turns out that Bernie Sanders is really, really average. He released his 2014 tax return tonight, and it reports that he had an adjusted gross income of $205,617 and total taxes due of $27,653. That’s 13 percent of his income.

Oddly, his return shows total wages of $156,441, even though US senators earn a minimum of $174,000. I’m not sure what the explanation for this is. He also shows charitable contributions of $8,350, which is 4 percent of his income. He’ll get some flak for that, I suppose, but I find all the showiness of politicians about their charitable donations to be tiresome. Whatever it is, it’s fine.

I just want to know why his reported wages were less than his official salary. Does the Senate pay less if you collect Social Security benefits?

UPDATE: In comments, machev suggests that Bernie contributes $17,500 to the federal equivalent of a 401(k). So his reportable income is $174K – $17.5K = $156.5K

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Bernie Sanders earned $205,000 in 2014

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Is This the Most Astonishing Obamacare Result Ever?

Mother Jones

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Phil Price points us today to an intriguing chart from the Department of Health and Human Services. It shows readmission rates within 30 days of a hospital stay for Medicare patients—including both “official” readmissions and short-term “observations”—and it’s pretty stunning. When Obamacare passed, readmission rates started to fall dramatically almost instantly. They fell most sharply for a subset of conditions specifically targeted by Obamacare, and by a smaller amount for other conditions. If this is accurate, it means that hospitals could have done something about readmission rates all along, but they just hadn’t bothered. Only after Obamacare provided an incentive to get their readmission rates down did they do anything about it.

So how should we think about this? I’ll confess to some skepticism because the chart is almost too perfect. For four years the readmission rate is dead stable. Then, in a single month between December 2010 and January 2011 it suddenly drops by a full percentage point, and continues dropping for two years. This decline started about eight months after the passage of Obamacare, and it’s hard to believe that hospitals could react that quickly.

Then, the very instant that penalties begin for high readmission rates, everything stabilizes again. Apparently America’s hospitals unanimously decided that once they’d hit a certain level, that was good enough and they wouldn’t bother trying to improve even more.

Maybe. But even for those of us who believe in incentives, this is the damnedest response to a new incentive I’ve ever seen. I guess my advice is to treat this with cautious optimism. It looks like a great result, but as with most Obamacare outcomes, it’s too early to tell for sure how things are going to work out. When we have five or ten years of experience, we’ll start to be able to draw some concrete conclusions. Until then, we can say how things seem to be going so far, but not much more.

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Is This the Most Astonishing Obamacare Result Ever?

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Nevada Set to Hold 2016’s First Instagram Caucus

Mother Jones

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I’m not sure the Nevada GOP truly understands how the digital revolution works:

In Clark County, which includes greater Las Vegas and 73% of the state’s population, Republican volunteers at each of the 36 caucus locations will count ballots by hand, write the results on an envelope, take a photograph of the envelope and text the photo to Ed Williams, the Clark County Republican Party chairman, and to state GOP officials. The state party is also allowing the Associated Press to monitor the results as they come in from precincts; in 2012 the party announced results itself on Twitter.

“The official number will be whatever is photographed,” Mr. Williams said.

The scary part is that this is an improvement over 2012, when they emailed Excel spreadsheets around. And this is all for fewer than 50,000 votes.

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Nevada Set to Hold 2016’s First Instagram Caucus

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It’s Official: Donald Trump Can Say Anything

Mother Jones

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Apparently Donald Trump can literally say anything now and get away with it. Here he is on Vladimir Putin’s comments from this morning:

It is always a great honor to be so nicely complimented by a man so highly respected within his own country and beyond,” Trump said in a statement. “I have always felt that Russia and the United States should be able to work well with each other towards defeating terrorism and restoring world peace, not to mention trade and all of the other benefits derived from mutual respect.”

No doubt—though this “highly respected” man is now directly threatening American military forces in a crucial area of Syria: “Earlier this month, Moscow deployed an SA-17 advanced air defense system near the area and began ‘painting’ U.S. planes, targeting them with radar in what U.S. officials said was a direct and dangerous provocation.” No worries, though. Trump apparently thinks Putin is a great guy who’s eager to restore world peace.

By the way, I notice that most news stories about Putin have started to distance themselves from suggesting that he called Trump “brilliant” or “outstanding.” They’re now more correctly translating Putin’s description as “lively” or “colorful.” Nonetheless, the media still seems to be on the “budding bromance” bandwagon, even though Putin didn’t really say anything complimentary about Trump. I wonder if Trump will change his tune once he finds out?

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It’s Official: Donald Trump Can Say Anything

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Maryland Official: Lead Poisoning Is the Royal Road to Riches

Mother Jones

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Technically this has nothing to do with lead and crime, but since I’m Mother Jones’ senior lead correspondent it’s up to me to put up this outlandish little item from Maryland:

Gov. Larry Hogan’s top housing official said Friday that he wants to look at loosening state lead paint poisoning laws, saying they could motivate a mother to deliberately poison her child to obtain free housing.

Kenneth C. Holt, secretary of Housing, Community and Development, told an audience at the Maryland Association of Counties summer convention here that a mother could just put a lead fishing weight in her child’s mouth, then take the child in for testing and a landlord would be liable for providing the child with housing until the age of 18.

Pressed afterward, Holt said he had no evidence of this happening but said a developer had told him it was possible. “This is an anecdotal story that was described to me as something that could possibly happen,” Holt said.

I’m pretty sure this wouldn’t actually work, but that hardly matters. It’s just another example of the peculiar Republican penchant for governance via anecdote. They’re all convinced that someone, somewhere, is trying to rip them off, but they can never find quite enough real examples of this. So instead we get Reaganesque fables about stuff they heard from some guy who heard it from some other guy who said, you know, it could happen.

By the way, if you’re tempted to do this, please don’t. Licking a lead fishing weight once probably won’t actually cause a detectable rise in blood lead levels, but it’s still a really bad idea.

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Maryland Official: Lead Poisoning Is the Royal Road to Riches

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Today’s Cliffhanger: Will Rick Perry Make It To the Main Debate Stage?

Mother Jones

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Vox’s Andrew Prokop takes a look at the polls released today and gives us his projection of who’s going to make the cut for the main stage in Thursday’s Fox News Republican debate:

Fox has said it will average the last five national polls before 5 pm today, and New York magazine’s Gabriel Sherman has reported that the network will use only live interview polls. If that’s the case, polls by NBC/WSJ, Monmouth, CBS News, Bloomberg Politics, and Fox News itself will be averaged….The candidates excluded from the primetime debate appear to be Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, and Jim Gilmore.

That’s kind of too bad about Perry. He’s been saying the occasional interesting thing lately, and while he’s unlikely to win, he seems more likely to me than Carson or Huckabee or Cruz.

My guess is that no one has any problem with the other six who didn’t make it. Their support is minuscule and they don’t seem even remotely likely to improve much. But Perry? His formal qualifications are good—12 years as governor, ran once before in 2012—and you never know about all that Texas money sloshing around. And there’s really no downside. His famous “oops” from last time around was the most memorable moment of the debate cycle. If he does something as dumb this time, at least we’d get some good entertainment value out of it.

Anyway, we’ll get the official word on all this from Fox in a couple of hours. I know you’re all waiting on the edges of your seats. As for me, it’s lunchtime in California. So I’m going to go get some lunch.

UPDATE: Yep, this is how it turned out. Official Fox News announcement here.

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Today’s Cliffhanger: Will Rick Perry Make It To the Main Debate Stage?

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Dear Rick Santorum: Sorry, the Pope Actually Did Study Science. So He Might Know About Science.

Mother Jones

“I am not a scientist!” is now the standard escape hatch through which Republican climate deniers slither to avoid talking about climate science or evolution. From Sen. Marco Rubio, asked how old the Earth is: “I’m not a scientist, man.” Rick Perry whipped out the same “I’m not a scientist” line last year in DC while questioning the consensus around climate change. Jeb Bush said the same thing back in 2009.

Now at least one GOP presidential hopeful is turning the talking point into an attack on the pope, ahead of his landmark encyclical on the environment, to be released Thursday. (A draft of the document has already leaked). Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, a Catholic with a history of criticizing Pope Francis, says the pope should leave science to the scientists. “The church has gotten it wrong a few times on science,” he told Dom Giordano, a radio host in Philadelphia, earlier this month. “And I think that we are probably better off leaving science to the scientists and focusing on what we’re really good at, which is theology and morality.”

One problem with Santorum’s retort? The pope, while obviously not a climate scientist (he’s the pope), actually did study science and therefore might have a better grasp of fundamental scientific processes than most people who have not studied science.

The National Catholic Reporter and the Official Vatican Network both report that Francis, then Jorge Bergoglio, earned a technician’s degree in chemistry from a technical school in Buenos Aires before joining the seminary. Sylvia Poggioli from NPR also reports Francis worked as a chemist. Listen to her report from Morning Edition, below, from Rome:

And for good measure, here’s a video my Climate Desk colleagues—Tim McDonnell and Suzanne Goldenberg (from the Guardian)—put together last week. They asked a bunch of climate change deniers at the annual Heartland Institute conference in Washington, DC, what they think of the pope’s calls for action on climate change:

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Dear Rick Santorum: Sorry, the Pope Actually Did Study Science. So He Might Know About Science.

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