Tag Archives: past

Chart of the Day: Gay Marriage Posts Another Gain

by MabelCadle Posted on May 15, 2017

Mother Jones

Here’s a bit more good news for you today. In Gallup’s latest poll, 64 percent of Americans say same-sex marriage should be legal. Even Republicans are getting on board: in the past four years, support for gay marriage among Republicans has shot up from 28 percent to 47 percent. At least a few things are going right these days.

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Chart of the Day: Gay Marriage Posts Another Gain

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Raw Data: Here’s What Violent Crime Really Looks Like Over the Past Decade

by TashaMathew Posted on February 12, 2017

Mother Jones

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Donald Trump keeps saying that the murder rate is the highest it’s been in 45 years. This is wildly untrue, but other people are joining the bandwagon anyway. Jeff Sessions says the current rise in crime is a “dangerous permanent trend.” Talk show hosts agree. America is a dark and dangerous place, and it’s getting more dangerous all the time.

Aside from outright lies, a lot of this is based on cherry-picked statistics. The murder rate in Chicago has skyrocketed over the past three years. Los Angeles has seen a substantial rise in its violent crime rate. Etc. But if you’re interested in the whole picture, I have it for you below, complete and un-cherry-picked.

You’re all used to seeing long-term crime charts from me because I’m usually illustrating the effect of lead on crime over the past 50 or 60 years. Those charts show national crime rates plummeting in the 90s and early aughts. This time, though, the chatter is all about recent increases in murder and violent crime in big cities. For starters, then, here are the basic numbers for the past decade on violent crime in large cities from the National Crime Victimization Survey:1

The data goes through 2015,2 and shows that big-city violent crime did tick upward slightly in 2015. More generally, though, violent crime has displayed a noisy but steadily downward trend over the past decade. In 2015, violent crime in big cities was nearly a third lower than it was in 2007.

Next up is violent crime from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports. This is based on reports from police departments, and includes detailed data at the city level. Here are violent crime rates in America’s ten biggest cities3 through the first half of 2016:4

Some big cities have indeed shown worrying upward trends: Chicago, San Antonio, and Los Angeles are all up over the past two or three years. At the same time, Philadelphia, New York City, and San Diego are all down. More generally, except for San Antonio every single one of these cities has a lower violent crime rate than in 2006, ranging from 4 percent down (San Jose) to 40 percent down (Dallas and Philadelphia). The overall violent crime rate for all big cities is up over the past two years, but still lower than it was in 2006.

Finally, here are the murder rates in our ten biggest cities:

Chicago, obviously, is a big outlier, with a high and rising murder rate (up 53 percent over the past two years). The three biggest cities in Texas have also seen big recent increases. Philadelphia, Los Angeles, and New York City are down compared to 2015.

You can draw different conclusions from this data depending on what you look at.5 However, this is the best data we have. This is reality. Whatever you decide to say about violent crime, it needs to be based on this.

1The NCVS data on violent crime doesn’t include homicide because, obviously, you can’t call up people and ask if they’ve been murdered in the past year. Generally speaking, however, violent crime as a category includes murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault.

2Unlike the other charts in this post, this one starts in 2007 because the Bureau of Justice Statistics warns that a change in methodology in 2006 makes it difficult to compare 2006 to other years.

3Because of a dispute over methodology, Chicago has no official numbers for forcible rape before 2015. Because of this, it also has no official numbers for violent crime. However, it’s pretty easy to create a close estimate of the rape rate and then use that to recreate the violent crime rate. That’s what I’ve done here.

4I’ve annualized the rates for the first half of 2016 so they’re comparable to the other years.

5It’s worth mentioning that property crime is also down over the past decade. Ditto for crime in smaller cities and towns. I haven’t shown any of that here because big-city violent crime seems to be the topic of the moment. However, you might be interested in a little-known bit of crime trivia that will surprise most people: violent crime in big cities has fallen so much that it’s actually lower than anyplace else. The safest places in America are the biggest and smallest cities. It’s the medium-sized cities that now have the biggest violent crime problems.

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Raw Data: Here’s What Violent Crime Really Looks Like Over the Past Decade

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Weekly Flint Water Report: June 17-23

by KalaLefebvre Posted on June 30, 2016

Mother Jones

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Here is this week’s Flint water report. As usual, I’ve eliminated outlier readings above 2,000 parts per billion, since there are very few of them and they can affect the averages in misleading ways. During the week, DEQ took 258 samples. The average for the past week was 12.13.

Continued here:

Weekly Flint Water Report: June 17-23

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Where’s the Idealism?

by LouellaBenjamin Posted on May 19, 2016

Mother Jones

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It’s a funny thing: the usual take on Bernie Sanders supporters is that they’re a bunch of idealistic college kids who want a revolution. But whenever I write a post critical of Bernie, I sure don’t seem to get much criticism from the smart set. Here’s a random baker’s dozen tweets responding to my post from last night:

I know you can’t draw any conclusions from the cesspool of social media. And I’m not a woman, so I escape the worst of this stuff. Still, this is the kind of barely literate nitwittery that I get from the tea party types when I write about Benghazi or the IRS. Full of passion, for sure, but not a whole lot of idealism. Just rage and lame middle-school insults.

Would I get the same quality of stuff from Hillary supporters if I wrote something negative about her? In the past I haven’t, but my criticisms of Hillary have been more targeted. Plus she’s winning, and that makes it a lot easier to let criticism wash off your back.

I dunno. I suppose the lesson is not to draw any lessons from Twitter (though my inbox looked pretty similar this morning). But I’ll draw a lesson anyway: We’re no angrier than we’ve ever been, but social media sure does make it a lot easier to express our rage publicly. In the past all we could do was yell at the TV in the privacy of our own living rooms. All things considered, this probably isn’t such a positive change.

Originally posted here:

Where’s the Idealism?

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Green Column: A Dutch Plan to Let Nature Takes Its Course

by Stephaniauxu Posted on September 18, 2013

green4us

Cesar’s Way – Cesar Millan & Melissa Jo Peltier

“I rehabilitate dogs. I train people.” —Cesar Millan There are at least 68 million dogs in America, and their owners lavish billions of dollars on them every year. So why do so many pampered pets have problems? In this definitive and accessible guide, Cesar Millan—star of National Geographic Channel’s hit show Dog Whisperer with Cesar Millan —reveals what do […]

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Codex: Space Marines (Enhanced Edition) – Games Workshop

The Space Marines are the chosen warriors of the Emperor, and the greatest fighting force of the Imperium. Each Space Marine is a genetically enhanced super soldier, easily a match for a dozen lesser men, armed with some of the deadliest weapons in the galaxy and encased in formidable power armour. This codex explores the formations and Chapters of the Space […]

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Amy Butler’s Style Stitches – Amy Butler

Now in ebook for the first time ever! Celebrated designer Amy Butler’s most coveted products are her handbag sewing patterns. In Style Stitches , Butler presents an array of new bag designs for her fans across the globe. The ebook offers 12 basic patterns with enough variations to achieve 26 unique looks. Ranging from chic clutches and delicate wristlet […]

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Marley & Me – John Grogan

The heartwarming and unforgettable story of a family and the wondrously neurotic dog who taught them what really matters in life. Now with photos and new material

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Cat Sense – John Bradshaw

Cats have been popular household pets for thousands of years, and their numbers only continue to rise. Today there are three cats for every dog on the planet, and yet cats remain more mysterious, even to their most adoring owners. In Cat Sense , renowned anthrozoologist John Bradshaw takes us further into the mind of the domestic cat than ever before, using […]

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How to Raise the Perfect Dog – Cesar Millan & Melissa Jo Peltier

From the bestselling author and star of National Geographic Channel’s Dog Whisperer , the only resource you’ll need for raising a happy, healthy dog. For the millions of people every year who consider bringing a puppy into their lives–as well as those who have already brought a dog home–Cesar Millan, the preeminent dog behavior expert, says, “Yes, […]

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The Art of Raising a Puppy (Revised Edition) – Monks of New Skete

For more than thirty years the Monks of New Skete have been among America’s most trusted authorities on dog training, canine behavior, and the animal/human bond. In their two now-classic bestsellers, How to be Your Dog’s Best Friend and The Art of Raising a Puppy, the Monks draw on their experience as long-time breeders of German shepherds and as t […]

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Warhammer 40,000: The Rules – Games Workshop

There is no time for peace. No respite. No forgiveness. There is only WAR. In the nightmare future of the 41st Millennium, Mankind teeters upon the brink of destruction. The galaxy-spanning Imperium of Man is beset on all sides by ravening aliens and threatened from within by Warp-spawned entities and heretical plots. Only the strength of the immortal […]

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Index Astartes: Apothecaries – Games Workshop

Apothecaries are the battle-medics of the Space Marine Chapters, tending to fallen battle-brothers in the chaos of combat using their skills to get them back into the fight. The Apothecaries are also the guardian’s of a Chapter’s genetic history, ensuring that its gene-seed is keep pure and safe for the creation of future Space Marines. About this Series: Th […]

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A Big Little Life – Dean Koontz

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER In a profound, funny, and beautifully rendered portrait of a beloved companion, bestselling novelist Dean Koontz remembers the golden retriever who changed his life. A retired service dog, Trixie was three when Dean and his wife, Gerda, welcomed her into their home. She was superbly trained, but her greatest gifts couldn’t be taught […]

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Green Column: A Dutch Plan to Let Nature Takes Its Course

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Miracles Happen – Brian L. Weiss & Amy E. Weiss

by Myrna Posted on June 3, 2013

READ GREEN WITH E-BOOKS

Miracles Happen

The Transformational Healing Power of Past-Life Memories

Brian L. Weiss & Amy E. Weiss

Genre: Spirituality

Price: $12.99

Publish Date: October 2, 2012

Publisher: HarperOne

Seller: HarperCollins


As a traditional psychotherapist, Dr. Brian Weiss was skeptical when one of his patients began recalling past-life traumas. Yet these memories allowed her to recover from her recurring nightmares and anxiety attacks in a way he'd never experienced. His skepticism eroded further when she began to channel messages from &quot;the space between lives&quot; and reveal truths about his dead son that she never could have known. Now a leader in the field of past-life therapy, Dr. Weiss has helped thousands connect with their past lives and experience tremendous healing. In Miracles Happen , Weiss, along with his daughter, Amy, shares these remarkable real-life stories to reveal how past-life regression holds the keys to our spiritual purpose. The awareness that we have multiple lifetimes, separated by spiritual interludes on the other side, helps to dissolve the fear of death and bring more peace and joy into the present moment. And in Miracles Happen , personal stories, accompanied by Dr. Weiss's inspiring teachings, reveal how getting in touch with our past lives can profoundly and permanently heal mind and body. In the end, we come away inspired, renewed, and assured of the truth that we are eternal beings who are free to heal our current wounds by better understanding our past. It's a practice that helps us improve our current lives, evolve along our spiritual paths, and live each day with purpose.

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Miracles Happen – Brian L. Weiss & Amy E. Weiss

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Where did all the tornadoes go?

by RupertxMcmillan Posted on May 7, 2013

Where did all the tornadoes go?

By John Upton

Shutterstock

Remember these guys?

The drought that parched much of the nation during the past year didn’t just stunt crops — it also stunted the annual yield of tornadoes. And an unseasonably chilly spring is so far helping to keep the hellish twisters at bay — although weather forecasters warn that trend may be short-lived.

During the past 12 months, the U.S. was hit by an estimated 197 tornadoes rated EF1 or stronger on the Enhanced Fujita scale, which ranks tornadoes according to their destructive potential from a low “0″ up to a devastating “5.” That was the lowest number of such tornadoes during any 12-month period since record-keeping began in 1954 — well below the previous low of 247 recorded between July 1990 and June 1991.

That’s in huge contrast to the onslaught of tornadoes that tore deadly paths of destruction through the nation in 2011, which was a record-busting year of tornadoes galore.

These tornado statistics come from NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory researcher Harold Brooks. He also noted in a blog post that the number of people killed by tornadoes during the past year — 7 — was the lowest since 1899. Here’s a graph lifted from his post:

NOAA

(Click to embiggen.)

The record tally of tornadoes in 2011 had people wondering then whether climate change was to blame, and the sudden dearth of the storms has people again wondering the same thing. It certainly feels like one of those boom-bust weather cycles that we expect from climate change. But there doesn’t appear to be any evidence directly linking the recent tornado cycle to global warming.

The dearth of tornadoes over the past year was linked to the lack of moisture in the air amid the shortage of rainstorms nationwide. There are divergent views on whether the recent droughts affecting the tornado states were caused by climate change — although climate models do predict more droughts in central North America, which is often a vast playpen of deadly twisters.

Likewise, we can’t singularly blame climate change for the cold snap that recently hit the Great Plains and the Midwest. But climatologists have drawn links between global warming and the weather patterns that delivered the cold spurt.

Climate Central delves into the tornado/climate question:

The drought that enveloped the majority of the lower 48 states during the past year has contributed greatly to the paucity of tornadoes, since the dry conditions have robbed the atmosphere of the water vapor that fuels severe thunderstorms. Other tornado ingredients, such as strong upper-level winds and atmospheric wind shear, have also been missing. …

Since tornado seasons vary considerably from one year to the next due to natural variability, it is unclear that the absence of tornadoes during the past 12 months has anything to do with global warming, just as it’s unclear if the 2011 tornado outbreaks were connected to it, either.

Tornadoes are complicated beasts, affected not only by moisture and temperature but also by wind shear and other factors.

Meanwhile, the Weather Channel warns that the cold conditions that have been recently keeping tornadoes at bay might soon break:

[T]he stubborn cold air of this past week will … gradually give way to more typical warm and humid air returning from the Gulf of Mexico into the central and southern Plains, to the east of a sharpening dryline.

With that said, the polar jet stream will remain well to the north in Canada through at least mid-week, rather far north for early May. Instead, weaker wind flow aloft, despite the upper-level system limping east from California, will be in play.

What that means is while severe thunderstorms and some tornadoes are possible in the Plains this week, the weaker wind flow aloft may keep this episode from reaching a full-fledged, widespread outbreak [of tornadoes] that May is so notorious for.

John Upton is a science aficionado and green news junkie who

tweets

, posts articles to

Facebook

, and

blogs about ecology

. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants:

johnupton@gmail.com

.

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Where did all the tornadoes go?

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