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Hillary Wins a Squeaker in Nevada, But It’s a Rout in the Headlines

Mother Jones

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In case you’ve ever wondered about the value of a narrow 5-point win in a state you were expected to take easily, just take a look at today’s headlines. The margin of victory doesn’t matter. The headlines in all four of our biggest daily newspapers were clear as a bell: Hillary won and her momentum is back. That’s the story everyone is seeing over their bacon and eggs this morning.

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Hillary Wins a Squeaker in Nevada, But It’s a Rout in the Headlines

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General Relativity: Not So Hard After All!

Mother Jones

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Yesterday I tackled a vexing problem: Is general relativity really that hard to understand? In one sense, of course it is. But when it receives the treatment that most scientific theories are given, I’d say no. For example, here’s how Newton’s theory of gravitation is usually described for laymen:

All objects with mass (for example, the earth and the moon) are attracted to each other. The bigger the mass, the stronger the attraction.
The attraction decreases as the objects get farther apart. If they’re twice as far apart, the attraction is one-fourth. If they’re three times as far apart, the attraction is one-ninth. Etc.

Easy peasy! Objects are attracted to each other via certain mathematical rules. But hold on. This is only easy because we’ve left out all the hard stuff. Why are massive objects attracted to each other? Newton himself didn’t even try to guess, famously declaring “I frame no hypotheses.” Action-at-a-distance remained a deep and profound mystery for centuries.1 And another thing: why does the gravitational attraction decrease by exactly the square of the distance? That’s suspiciously neat. Why not by the power of 2.1 or the cube root of e? And nothing matters except mass and distance? Why is that? This kind of stuff is almost never mentioned in popular descriptions, and it’s the reason Newton’s theory is so easy to picture: It’s because we don’t usually give you anything to picture in the first place. Apples fall to the earth and planets orbit the sun. End of story.

Well then, let’s describe Einstein’s theory of gravity—general relativity—the same way:

Objects with mass are attracted to each other.
The attraction decreases as the objects get farther apart. Einstein’s equation is different from Newton’s, so the amount of the decrease is slightly different too.
In Einstein’s theory, gravity isn’t a property of mass. It’s caused by the geometry of the universe, so it affects everything, including energy.
Light is a form of energy, so beams of light are slightly bent when they travel near massive objects like stars.
Einstein’s equations predict that time runs slower near objects with high gravitational fields.
Sometimes an object can have such a strong gravitational field that light can’t escape and time stops. These are called black holes.
Plus a few other intriguing but fairly minor deviations from Newton’s theory.

Not so hard! Once again, there’s nothing to picture even though this is a perfectly adequate lay description of general relativity. The trouble starts when we do what we didn’t do for Newton: ask why all this stuff happens. But guess what? In any field of study, things get more complicated and harder to analogize as you dive more deeply. For some reason, though, we insist on doing this for relativity even though we happily ignore it in descriptions of Newton’s theory of gravity. And this is when we start getting accelerating elevators in space and curved spacetime and light cones and time dilation. Then we complain that we don’t understand it.

(By the way: if you study classical Newtonian gravity, it turns out to be really complicated too! Gravitation, the famous Misner/Thorne/Wheeler doorstop on general relativity, is 1200 difficult pages. But guess what? Moulton’s Introduction to Celestial Mechanics pushes 500 pages—and it only covers a fraction of classical gravitation. This stuff is hard!)

Relativity and quantum mechanics are both famously hard to grasp once you go beyond what they say and demand to know what they mean. In truth, they don’t “mean” anything. They do gangbusters at describing what happens when certain actions are taken, and we can thank them for transistors, GPS satellites, atom bombs, PET scans, hard drives, solar cells, and plenty of other things. The mathematics is difficult, but often it looks kinda sorta like the math for easier concepts. So quantum mechanics has waves and probability amplitudes because some of the math looks pretty similar to the math we use to describe ocean swells and flipping coins. Likewise, general relativity has curved spacetime because Einstein’s math looks a lot like the math we use to describe ordinary curved objects.

But is it really probability? Is it really a four-dimensional curve? Those are good ways to interpret the math. But you know what? No matter how much you dive in, you’ll never know for sure if these interpretations of the math into human-readable form are really correct. You can be confident the math is correct,2 but the interpretations will always be a bit iffy. And sadly, they won’t really help you understand the actual operation of these theories anyway. Objects with mass attract each other, and if you know the math you can figure out exactly how much they attract each other. Calling the path of the objects a geodesic on a 4-dimensional curved spacetime manifold doesn’t really make things any clearer. In all likelihood, a picture of a bowling ball on a trampoline doesn’t either.

But we keep trying. We just can’t help thinking that everything has to be understandable to the h. sapiens brain. This makes interpreting difficult math an excellent way to pass the time for a certain kind of person. It’s a lot like trying to interpret the actions of the Kardashian family. Lots of fun, but ultimately sort of futile if you’re just an ordinary schmoe.

1General relativity and quantum mechanics finally put everyone’s minds at ease by showing that the action wasn’t actually at a distance after all. Unfortunately, they explained one mystery only at the cost of hatching a whole bunch of others.

2We hope so, anyway. But then, Newton’s math looked pretty damn good for a couple of centuries before it turned out to be slightly wrong. That may yet happen to general relativity and quantum mechanics too.

UPDATE: I’ve modified the third bullet of the relativity list to make it more accurate.

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General Relativity: Not So Hard After All!

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Donald Trump Might Be Single-Handedly Ruining the Economy

Mother Jones

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Companies and things Donald Trump has started boycotting in the past few months:

  1. Oreo cookies
  2. Carrier air conditioners
  3. iPhones and all other Apple products
  4. Starbucks
  5. Macy’s
  6. The Republican debate, for a while anyway
  7. Traveling to Mexico
  8. HBO
  9. Univision

Typically, the reason for the boycott is some kind of personal feud (5, 6, 8, 9); companies making things overseas (1, 2); companies doing things he disapproves of (3, 4); and countries doing things he disapproves of (7).

In fairness, he’s on the business end of plenty of boycotts too. He might personally be responsible for last quarter’s lousy economic growth.

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Donald Trump Might Be Single-Handedly Ruining the Economy

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Friday Cat Blogging – 19 February 2016

Mother Jones

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Today we have bunk bed kitties. Among felines, I’m not sure whether the alpha gets the top bunk or the bottom bunk. Since they usually like hiding in nooks and crannies, I’m guessing bottom bunk. Other evidence corroborates this. Hopper used to let Hilbert bully her, but lately she barely even opens an eyelid when he tries to push her around. And sure enough, he just sadly backs away. Poor thing. He used to think he was the toughest mammal in the house, but time has taught him otherwise.

Also, Hopper bit his ear a few days ago. If that doesn’t get the message across, I don’t know what will.

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Friday Cat Blogging – 19 February 2016

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Sadly, Rubio-Obama Left-Handed Handshake Is Just Design Laziness, Not Latest Terrorist Fist Jab

Mother Jones

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Today’s idiotic campaign tiff involves Marco Rubio pretending to be outraged about an image from the Ted Cruz campaign that illustrates their supposed outrage over the fact that “Rubio cast the deciding vote to fast-track three highly secretive trade deals negotiated by Obama and encouraging corrupt, backroom deals.” It shows a photoshopped Rubio shaking hands with a photoshopped Obama.

Yawn. What I want to know is why this illustration shows Rubio and Obama shaking hands left-handed. Weird, no? But it turns out the answer is simple: the campaign used a stock photo for the bodies, but the black guy in the photo was on the left and they wanted Obama to be on the right. So they inverted the image, which made it look like a left-handed handshake.

I’m disappointed. I thought maybe conservatives were under the impression that a left-handed shake was the latest black thing, like a terrorist fist jab or something. Oh well.

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Sadly, Rubio-Obama Left-Handed Handshake Is Just Design Laziness, Not Latest Terrorist Fist Jab

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A New Poll Says Ted Cruz Is Now Leading the Republican Race, But It’s Probably Wrong

Mother Jones

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The big campaign news of the day is a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showing that Ted Cruz leads Donald Trump nationally, 28-26 percent. But this seems unlikely: Four new national polls have been released since yesterday, and three of them continue to show Trump with about 38 percent support compared to 17 percent for Cruz.

So what’s going on with the NBC poll? If it’s an outlier, it’s a hell of an outlier. I couldn’t even find a table extensive enough to tell me how unlikely it is to be just a sample error. One in a million, maybe? So maybe it’s a problem with NBC’s likely-voter filter? Could be. Or maybe there’s been an enormous negative response to Trump’s debate performance last Saturday? The NBC poll is the only telephone poll done entirely after the debate, so if that were the case it would show up most strongly there.

Very odd. I guess we wait and see.

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A New Poll Says Ted Cruz Is Now Leading the Republican Race, But It’s Probably Wrong

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A Mixed Story on Health Care Spending

Mother Jones

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Katherine Hempstead of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation is optimistic about the growth of health care spending:

The quarterly trend in overall health spending growth using the Altarum Health Spending Economic Indicators series shows a clear peak in Q1 2015 at 6.7 percent, with subsequent declines every quarter. Partial data for Q4 (October and November) show a spending growth rate of 5.2 percent. While overall spending growth in 2015 will clearly exceed that of 2014, a reduction appears to be underway.

As near as I can tell, this spending data hasn’t been adjusted for inflation. When you do that you get the chart at the bottom, which tells a different story. There was indeed a peak in the first quarter of 2015 followed by a sharp drop, but spending growth has gone up steadily since then.

In the long term, I’m fairly optimistic about the trajectory of health care spending. As Hempstead says, it makes sense that we saw some large increases when Obamacare was first implemented, since it brought a lot of new people into the health care system. But after the first year or two, that will flatten out and long-term trends should continue to dominate.

That said, you still need to look at this stuff in real terms. And when you do that, we’re not quite seeing the steady downward march that Hempstead suggests.

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A Mixed Story on Health Care Spending

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Obama Should Let the Senate Advise Him on a Replacement for Scalia

Mother Jones

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John Holbo has an interesting notion: President Obama should take seriously the advise part of advise and consent and give the Senate an informal list of nominees to choose from to replace Antonin Scalia. Maybe they’ll pick two or three off the list, maybe just one. Then Obama transmits his final choice for confirmation hearings.

The basic idea is that this puts Republicans in a pickle. If they flatly reject the entire list, it makes their obstructionism a little too barefaced for an election year where they need votes from more than just their base. But if they give tentative approval beforehand, then it’s harder to pretend afterward that Obama has sent them an obviously radical and unacceptable choice.

I suspect this is the kind of idea that sounds better on a blog than it does in the Oval Office, but it’s still interesting. Partly this is because the best Republican response isn’t quite as obvious as it seems. If someone on the list is genuinely moderate, what do they do? They can bet the ranch on winning the presidency and then abolishing the filibuster, which would allow them to confirm a hardcore conservative in 2017. But if they lose—or if they don’t have guts to abolish the filibuster next January—they’ll almost certainly end up being forced to confirm a more liberal justice nominated by President Sanders or President Clinton. Decisions, decisions.

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Obama Should Let the Senate Advise Him on a Replacement for Scalia

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Let Us Now Praise the Culture Wars

Mother Jones

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Stephen Prothero has a very odd piece in the LA Times today:

Two surprising conclusions emerge when America’s culture wars — from Jefferson’s heresies to same-sex marriage — are stacked up and weighed together. Conservatives typically start the battles, and liberals almost always win them.

Conservatism is often said to be rooted in a commitment to states’ rights, free markets and limited government. But American conservatives have been for and against all these things at various times. The more consistent idea behind American conservatism is cultural: a form of life is passing away and it is worth fighting to revive and restore it. Driven by this narrative of loss and restoration, culture warriors struggle to resurrect the patriarchal family or Christian America or the homogeneous hometown.

Conservatives typically lose these battles because the causes they select are lost from the start. For example, culture warriors took on Catholics when the Catholic population was mainstreaming and gaining power. They took on same-sex marriage when many gays and lesbians were already out of the closet and accepted by their heterosexual relatives, co-workers and neighbors.

This is backward. Almost by definition—as Prothero acknowledges—conservatives want to keep existing cultural mores in place. It’s liberals who want to change them. Same-sex marriage is a typical case: the United States spent 200 years unanimously believing that it was too absurd even to contemplate. It was gay rights activists, eventually supported by mainstream liberals, who pushed it into the public sphere. Conservatives didn’t fight it before then because there was nothing to fight.

This dynamic isn’t quite universal. The temperance movement, which was generally conservative though a little hard to classify, tried to change a custom that was millennia old. Much more commonly, though, it’s liberals who fight for cultural change. In the postwar era, we’re the ones who started the fights over civil rights; gender equality; prayer in school; abortion; gay rights; voting rights; health care as a basic right; and many others.

Prothero basically says that conservatives take on these movements too late, only after they’ve already started to gain critical mass. That’s why they lose. This is true, but how else could it be? There’s no point in waging a war against something that has no mainstream support and isn’t even a twinkle in the public eye.

And of course, conservatives don’t always lose. Liberals have tried to change the culture around guns, and so far we’ve failed miserably. Drug legalization has made only minuscule progress. And after 70 years, we’re still fighting for truly universal health care.

Nonetheless, the general principle is simple: Liberals start culture fights, and conservatives respond if it looks like we’re starting to succeed. Beyond being the simple truth, it’s also something liberals should be proud of. There’s a lot of enduring unfairness in society, and the main reason I count myself a liberal in the first place is because we’re the ones who fight like hell to bring public attention to this and work to change it. Why would any liberal not gladly accept this?

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Let Us Now Praise the Culture Wars

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Lots of Rich People Seem to Be in Tough Financial Straits

Mother Jones

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Here’s a fairly remarkable poll from Gallup about financial well-being. The direction of the answers is unsurprising: if you earn more, you’re more likely to have enough money to buy the things you need, and less likely to be cutting back on spending.

And yet, of those making over $240,000, a full 10 percent say they don’t have enough money to buy the things they need. And an astonishing 37 percent say they’re cutting back.

I’m not sure what to make of this. Either there are a whole lot of rich people who manage their money really badly, or else this is some kind of statistical artifact. Or maybe rich people consider separate summer and winter getaway homes to be among the things they “need.” It’s a headscratcher.

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Lots of Rich People Seem to Be in Tough Financial Straits

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