Tag Archives: photos-that

This One Simple Trick Will Allow You to Make a Killing Betting on the Presidential Race

by ElenaAnivitti10 Posted on October 21, 2015

Mother Jones

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC “-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN” “http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd”>

Jim Tankersley examines the presidential odds at PredictWise today and concludes that punters are probably underestimating Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning. Why? Justin Wolfers explains that it’s likely due to something called “longshot bias”:

The favorite tends to win in betting markets more often than indicated by the odds. So if the markets say she’s a 47% chance to be president, history suggests that the true odds are a bit better than that.

….There’s another way to get at this though, which is simply to ask whether the odds make sense. I think the idea that Clinton is only a 75 percent chance to win the nomination is nuts — she’s essentially the only serious candidate running, and it’s now clear that her campaign is not going to implode. With any candidate there are risks that secrets may come out, but with Mrs. Clinton, we’ve had several decades for them to surface. So my (personal!) judgment is that she is at least an 85 percent chance to win the nomination, and maybe 90 percent is a more realistic assessment.

OK. But what I want to know is why the betting markets say that Democrats have a 58 percent chance of winning the presidency, but the combined chance of all the individual Democratic candidates is 63 percent. There must be some way to arbitrage this so that you’ll make money no matter what happens. Right?

Taken from: 

This One Simple Trick Will Allow You to Make a Killing Betting on the Presidential Race

Posted in Anker, FF, GE, LAI, LG, ONA, Uncategorized, Venta | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on This One Simple Trick Will Allow You to Make a Killing Betting on the Presidential Race

Chart of the Day: The Kids These Days Are Abandoning TV

by CarmeloO89 Posted on October 20, 2015

Mother Jones

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC “-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN” “http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd”>

I suppose this isn’t exactly breaking news, but young people sure are abandoning traditional television in a hurry. Liam Boluk reads the eulogy:

Across all audience segments under 50, television engagement is declining rapidly…. This time is not simply evaporating. Instead, it’s moving to services such as Netflix (each of the company’s 43M US accounts watches more than 2 hours a day), Twitch (15M American viewers watching 30 minutes a day), YouTube (163M watching 35 minutes a day) and scores of other low cost (if not free) digital-first brands and services.

No television network can weather the loss of their younger audiences….Skinny bundles, adjusted affiliate fees, re-rationalized programming strategies, lower costs, declining Pay TV penetration. These can all be managed practically. But without a way of re-engaging youth audiences, all networks are on long-term life support. To thrive, they need to invest in new digital properties, create new distribution models and partnerships and invest in radically different content forms.

Traditional TV viewing among teenagers and 20-somethings has gone off a cliff since 2010. Oddly, though, old folks are watching more TV. It’s easy to understand why TV viewing among seniors might be flat—they’re not interested in YouTube and Netflix and all the other stuff the kids these day are into—but why would it be going up? Have traditional networks well and truly given up on younger viewers and are therefore programming more content that appeals to the Geritol crowd?

I’m no media analyst, so I have no great insights into all this. I just thought it was interesting to see how dramatic the decline has been among younger viewers, despite being told relentlessly that we’re in a second golden age of TV. About once a week I think I read an article telling me that some show I’ve never heard of is probably the best drama on television today—maybe of all time. I guess the kids aren’t listening.

Originally from – 

Chart of the Day: The Kids These Days Are Abandoning TV

Posted in FF, GE, LG, ONA, Uncategorized, Venta | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Chart of the Day: The Kids These Days Are Abandoning TV

Benghazi Staffers Spent Their Days Designing Personalized "Tiffany Glocks"

by AndreaN866031 Posted on October 11, 2015

Mother Jones

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC “-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN” “http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd”>

Who said this?

He described to CNN an office environment in which employees spent their days Web surfing and sometimes drinking at work. He said staffers joined a “gun buying club” for “chrome-plated, monogrammed, Tiffany-style Glock 9-millimeters,” and some would spend hours at a time at work designing the personalized weapons.

Answer: Maj. Bradley Podliska, a former member of the House Benghazi committee, who claims he was fired for refusing to spend his time focused solely on Hillary Clinton instead of actually investigating Benghazi. I don’t know yet if I believe him, but the whole Tiffany Glock thing sounds way too weird to have been made up.

Original link: 

Benghazi Staffers Spent Their Days Designing Personalized "Tiffany Glocks"

Posted in FF, GE, LAI, LG, ONA, Uncategorized, Venta | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Benghazi Staffers Spent Their Days Designing Personalized "Tiffany Glocks"