Tag Archives: pollster

Views of Trump Down, But Job Approval Is Up

by NapoleoPascal Posted on April 17, 2017

Mother Jones

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According to Gallup, views of President Trump’s have plummeted since February:

On the other hand, according to Pollster his approval rating has been improving for the past couple of weeks:

I guess a couple of high-profile bombings can do wonders even if people don’t really trust you much anymore.

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Views of Trump Down, But Job Approval Is Up

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Obamacare Is Slightly More Popular Than It Used To Be

by CathrynTorgerso Posted on January 26, 2017

Mother Jones

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We’ve seen a bunch of recent polling that shows an uptick in support for Obamacare now that the prospect of gutting it has become more real. However, as with any polling, you can get a better picture of what things really look like if you aggregate all the polls. Here is Pollster’s aggregate for Obamacare approval:

There has been an upward trend over the past six months of about five points or so. The rise since Donald Trump’s election has been a little less than two points. Technically, then, Obamacare is “more popular than ever,” but not by a lot.

Hopefully this trend will continue, but for now it’s not something to hang our hats on. We’re far better off hammering Republicans on specific features of Obamacare that truly have very high support: the pre-existing conditions ban, the cap on out-of-pocket payments, the tax credits, the Medicaid expansion, etc. That’s most likely where the battle will be won or lost.

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Obamacare Is Slightly More Popular Than It Used To Be

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Weekly Poll Update: The Race Has Tightened Slightly, But Clinton Is Still Comfortably Ahead

by NorbertoSymons2 Posted on November 4, 2016

Mother Jones

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Let’s get our final weekly polling update out of the way early. Here’s Pollster:

Clinton is 6.1 percentage points ahead of Trump, down a point from last week. In the generic House polling, Pollster has Democrats ahead by 3.4 points, also down a point from last week. Sam Wang’s meta-margin has Hillary Clinton leading Trump by 2.6 percentage points, down a point and a half from last week:

Wang’s current prediction is that Clinton has a 99 percent chance of winning and will rack up 312 electoral votes. He still has the Senate tied, 50-50, with the probability of Democratic control at 76 percent. On the House side, he has Democrats up by about 3 percent, which is not enough for them to win back control.

Overall, it continues to look like Hillary Clinton will win by 4-5 points, with my personal 95 percent confidence range at 3-6 points. The Senate will either be tied 50-50 or Democrats will win 51-49. Either way, they’ll control the Senate. The House will remain in Republican hands. Whether those hands are Paul Ryan’s or someone else’s remains to be seen.

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Weekly Poll Update: The Race Has Tightened Slightly, But Clinton Is Still Comfortably Ahead

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Weekly Poll Update: Not Much Change From Last Week

by HansBrooks36 Posted on October 28, 2016

Mother Jones

Sam Wang’s meta-margin has Hillary Clinton leading Trump by 4.1 percentage points, down slightly from last week:

Wang’s current prediction is that Clinton has a 99 percent chance of winning and will rack up 334 electoral votes. He still has the Senate tied, 50-50, but the Democratic meta-margin is down a bit to 1.2 percent and the probability of Democratic control is 76 percent. On the House side, he has Democrats up by about 4 percent, which is not enough for them to win back control. Here’s Pollster:

Clinton is 7.3 percentage points ahead of Trump, exactly the same as last week. In the generic House polling, Pollster has Democrats ahead by 4.3 points, down a point from last week.

Overall, Trump vs. Clinton has barely moved, but the Democratic lead in congressional races seems to have ticked down a point or so.

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Weekly Poll Update: Not Much Change From Last Week

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Weekly Poll Update: Hillary Clinton Still Flying High

by pwbqczv Posted on October 21, 2016

Mother Jones

Sam Wang’s meta-margin hasn’t changed much in the past week. He now has Hillary Clinton leading Trump by 4.4 percentage points:

Wang’s current prediction is that Clinton has a 99 percent chance of winning and will rack up 339 electoral votes. He still has the Senate tied, 50-50, but the Democratic meta-margin is up to 1.7 percent and the probability of Democratic control is 79 percent. On the House side, he has Democrats up by about 5 percent, which is not enough for them to win back control. Here’s Pollster:

Clinton has dropped a point and is now 7.3 percentage points ahead of Trump. For what it’s worth, if you look only at high-quality live phone polls, they have Clinton up by a whopping 9.5 percentage points. In the generic House polling, Pollster has Democrats ahead by 5.2 points, down a bit from last week.

If you add to all this the fact that Clinton almost certainly has a far superior GOTV operation compared to Trump, she could win the election by anywhere from 6 to 10 points depending on what happens over the next couple of weeks. Republicans appear to have resigned themselves to this, and are now putting all their energy into downballot races. This means the Senate is likely to be very close, and the House will probably stay in Republican hands—though only by a dozen seats or so.

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Weekly Poll Update: Hillary Clinton Still Flying High

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Weekly Poll Update: Donald Trump Is Imploding

by ThomasReddall Posted on October 14, 2016

Mother Jones

Once again, let’s show both of my favorite pollsters today. Sam Wang’s meta-margin continued its reversion to the mean and then blew past it. Hillary Clinton is now leading Trump by 4.7 percentage points:

Wang’s current prediction is that Clinton has a 97 percent chance of winning and will rack up 332 electoral votes. The Senate will be tied, 50-50. And here’s Pollster:

Clinton has gained two points and is now 8.4 percentage points ahead of Trump. In the generic House polling, Pollster has Democrats ahead by 7.4 points. If that holds up, it’s a big enough lead to start wondering if Democrats really do have a chance of taking back control of Congress completely.

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Weekly Poll Update: Donald Trump Is Imploding

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It’s the End of August and Hillary Clinton’s Lead Remains Clear and Steady

by DarinLeyva Posted on August 26, 2016

Mother Jones

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Is the presidential race tightening up? Let’s take a look. Here’s Pollster:

No tightening evident here. Here’s Sam Wang:

No tightening here either. If anything, Clinton has improved her position. Here’s Real Clear Politics:

Some slight tightening here since early August, when the convention bumps settled down. Maybe a point or so. Here’s Nate Cohn:

No tightening here. Here’s 538:

This is a percentage chance of victory, not a projection of vote share. Clinton has dropped a few points since early August.

Bottom line: Since early August, there’s either been no tightening in the polls, or, at most, maybe a point or so. Hillary Clinton is ahead by 6-8 points in the national polls, and so far that’s staying pretty steady.

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It’s the End of August and Hillary Clinton’s Lead Remains Clear and Steady

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