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Irony Alert: Latinos May Determine Donald Trump’s Fate

Mother Jones

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Call it justicia divina.

After serving for months as punching bags for Republican candidates, Latinos may ultimately decide the outcome of the race. An upcoming report from two GOP consulting firms argues that Latino votes in California could prove decisive in 11 of the state’s 53 congressional districts—a swath that confers more delegates than 20 other states combined. “If Trump is going to be held under 1,237″—the number of delegates needed to avoid a contested convention—”it will largely be the result of Latino Republicans voting against his candidacy,” says Mike Madrid, whose firm, Grassroots Lab, co-authored the report with the GOP analytics firm Murphy Nasica.

Latino Republicans have far more clout than their numbers would suggest. Fewer than 1-in-5 California GOPers is Latino, but Madrid calculates that their primary votes, on average, will be worth a staggering 6.5 times more than those of the average white voter.

This situation stems from the state GOP’s quirky rules. Each congressional district confers three delegates in a winner-take-all election, regardless of how many Republicans live there. So a majority-white district in Orange County with 166,000 Republicans is worth the same as a majority-Latino one in East Lost Angeles with just 30,000 Republicans. In other words, those Republicans living in Democratic districts have the most powerful votes, and a disproportionate number of those Republicans, Madrid calculates, are Latinos.

“Finding Latino Republicans in these districts is like finding the Holy Grail,” he says. “The irony is that those votes have become the most effective and valuable for amassing delegates, but they are extremely hard to find because the party has not been there in these areas for 25 years.”

The Cruz campaign has invested heavily in targeting Latino-heavy districts in the Central Valley, Los Angeles County, and east of San Diego with phone banking and precinct walking. “We are the only campaign that has the organization to do it,” says Mike Schroeder, the campaign’s California co-chair. “It’s not complicated; it’s simple, basic, nuts-and-bolts politics.”

But it’s also an uphill climb for an ultraconservative candidate like Cruz, who has staked out positions on immigration nearly identical to Trump’s. Cruz’s lead among Latino Republicans in California stands at a mere 4 percent and is unlikely to widen much before the June 7 primary, Madrid speculates. “Cruz has built his entire operation in appealing to Southern, white evangelicals,” he says. “It’s too late to pivot.”

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Irony Alert: Latinos May Determine Donald Trump’s Fate

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Why Donald Trump and Ted Cruz Could Spell Doom for the California GOP

Mother Jones

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In 1994, California Gov. Pete Wilson ran a television ad showing Mexican immigrants dashing across the border as a voice declared: “They keep coming: Two million illegal immigrants in California.” Wilson’s short term gain—he won both reelection and a ballot measure denying state services to undocumented immigrants—was soon overcome by a Latino backlash that transformed California into an overwhelmingly Democratic state.

So it was more than a little bit rich to see Wilson use a surprise visit at California’s Republican convention on Saturday to endorse Sen. Ted Cruz, warning that the nomination of Donald Trump could spell ruin for the state GOP. Senator Cruz “is not anti-immigrant,” Wilson said, an implicit jab at Trump. “He, as I am, is for legal immigration of the kind that made this country great. And I might point out that he is hardly anti-Latino.”

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Why Donald Trump and Ted Cruz Could Spell Doom for the California GOP

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Donald Trump’s Ground Game Is Much Better Than We Thought

Mother Jones

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Tuesday’s Republican primary in Pennsylvania was the ultimate test of the three campaigns’ ground organization. And the candidate who’s been most widely impugned for his ground game came out on top by a vast margin.

Donald Trump won the Pennsylvania Republican primary with 57 percent of the vote. But that was only half the battle in the Keystone State. Unlike voters in most states, who select the candidate of their choice (or a slate of delegates listed under that candidate), GOP voters in Pennsylvania see only delegates’ names on the ballot. The delegates they elect to the Republican National Convention in Cleveland are not obligated to support any particular candidate at the convention. That means that for the candidates, getting sympathetic delegates elected is just as important as winning the popular vote.

The Trump campaign nailed this challenge. According to ABC News, at least 41 of the 54 unbound delegates in Pennsylvania will back Trump. Runner-up Ted Cruz has the support of just three delegates in the state, while nine remain uncommitted.

Pennsylvania’s system of directly electing delegates presented a challenge for the campaigns. A Republican voter in Pennsylvania needed to know not only his or her choice for president, but also which candidates for delegate would support that person in Cleveland this summer. That required the campaigns to do two things: ensure that sympathetic delegates made it onto the ballot (or at least identify the supportive candidates) in each congressional district, and launch a substantial information campaign so voters would know which delegates to choose.

Trump was not expected to perform well in this regard. His campaign, which has built its success on a massive press and social-media presence, has been criticized for its lack of ground organizing, which presaged trouble in the crucial delegate-wrangling stage in the latter part of the race. The Cruz campaign has been getting credit for its behind-the-scenes maneuvering to send pro-Cruz delegates to the convention in Cleveland; in states like Colorado, for example, Cruz’s delegate strategy won him nearly every delegate from the state and left none for Trump.

But in Pennsylvania, the Trump campaign educated its supporters better than the Cruz campaign, and the results showed.

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Donald Trump’s Ground Game Is Much Better Than We Thought

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Here’s What Today’s Primary Voters Think About the Planet’s Most Important Issue

Mother Jones

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Residents of five Northeastern states are voting Tuesday in crucial presidential primary contests. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has a chance to all but clinch the nomination with a strong showing. On the Republican side, Donald Trump is looking for massive victories that could put him one step closer to securing a majority of the delegates at the GOP convention in Cleveland.

The presidential election will, of course, have enormous implications for a range of issues—but some of the biggest consequences will relate to the fight against global warming. Clinton essentially wants to continue President Barack Obama’s climate policies. Her opponent, Bernie Sanders, wants to go even further by enacting a carbon tax. Trump and his closest rival, Ted Cruz, are both outspoken climate change deniers. John Kasich is somewhat less extreme on the issue but has still made contradictory statements about the science, and he refuses to commit to any meaningful action.

But what do the voters think?

Back on March 1—as a dozen or so states around the country voted on Super Tuesday—we pointed out that the electorate that day contained an awful lot of deniers. Less than half of adults in those states—48 percent—agreed with the scientific consensus that humans are mostly responsible for recent warming, according to data from the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. Drawing from more than 13,000 interviews, the Yale researchers used a complicated statistical model to estimate the 2014 views of residents of every state, county, and congressional district on key climate science and policy questions.

This Tuesday, the voters look a bit different than they did on March 1. Residents of the Northeast hold some of the country’s most progressive (and accurate) views on climate change, according to the Yale study. Small majorities in most of Tuesday’s state’s—as well as in nearby New York, which voted last week—embrace the scientific consensus.

Here’s another way to crunch the same data. The researchers combined people who said global warming is caused mostly by humans with those who attribute it to both humans and nature. They also combined two kinds of climate science deniers: people who think the warming is natural and those who don’t think the planet is getting warmer at all.

Those numbers look pretty good for science, especially when you compare them with those from some of the Southern states that voted on Super Tuesday.

But here’s the thing: Trump may insist global warming is a “hoax,” but that isn’t stopping him from winning in states where most people understand he’s wrong. He won Massachusetts and Vermont on Super Tuesday. He won overwhelmingly in New York last week. And he’s leading in the polls in every state voting Tuesday.

That’s probably because voters in Republican primaries don’t have the same views on science as the average resident of their states. In New Hampshire, for instance, large majorities of Democrats and independents say humans are the main cause of global warming. But only a small minority of Republicans agree. Trump won New Hampshire by 20 percentage points.

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Here’s What Today’s Primary Voters Think About the Planet’s Most Important Issue

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Watch Donald Trump Blast the GOP’s "Crooked System" in His NY Victory Speech

Mother Jones

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Speaking from Trump Tower in Manhattan on Tuesday, Donald Trump celebrated his resounding victory in New York’s Republican primary. The GOP front-runner took the opportunity to dismiss his challengers, Ted Cruz and John Kasich, and to declare the race essentially over.

“Senator Cruz is just about mathematically eliminated,” Trump told a crowd of supporters. “We’ve won another state. As you know we have won a million more votes than Senator Cruz. Millions and millions of more votes than Governor Kasich.”

“We’re really, really rocking,” he added.

The real estate magnate closed out his victory speech by once again criticizing the Republican party, describing its presidential nomination system as “rigged.” At one point, Trump even referenced the battle that Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are currently waging for the support of Democratic superdelegates.

“Nobody should take delegates and claim victory unless they get those delegates with voters and voting,” he said. “And that’s what’s going to happen, and you watch, because the people aren’t going to stand for it. It’s a crooked system.”

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Watch Donald Trump Blast the GOP’s "Crooked System" in His NY Victory Speech

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Trump Dominates New York, Reclaiming Momentum

Mother Jones

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Donald Trump emphatically reclaimed momentum Tuesday night in the fight for the Republican presidential nomination, scoring an overwhelming victory in his home state of New York.

The major networks called the race immediately after polls closed at 9 p.m. ET. Exit polls showed Trump winning more than half the vote in the state, with John Kasich and Ted Cruz trailing far behind.

The Republican front-runner’s win follows a string of losses this month, in the Wisconsin primary and at state conventions in Colorado and Wyoming where Cruz outmaneuvered Trump in the delegate selection process. But in New York, which will send 95 delegates to the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July, Trump worked hard to climb back on top.

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Trump Dominates New York, Reclaiming Momentum

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How Cruz and Trump Dissed 9/11 Rescue Workers

Mother Jones

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Firefighters make their way over the ruins and through clouds of smoke at the World Trade Center in October 2001. Stan Honda/AP

Earlier this year in the GOP presidential race, Ted Cruz took a poke at Donald Trump by derisively referring to “New York values.” The jab sparked an uproar, and the celebrity tycoon blasted Cruz in response, citing New York City’s heroic response to the 9/11 attacks. As the two face off before Tuesday’s New York primary, Trump has been reminding Empire State voters that Cruz dissed them. But he has not pounded Cruz for ducking an effort to help the heroes of 9/11—the rescue and recovery workers who years afterward have dealt with severe health issues. When legislation was pending in the Senate last year to assist these workers, Cruz did not publicly support it. This ought to be ripe material for Trump to exploit. Except for one thing: Trump, too, did nothing to help this measure move through Congress.

Here’s the deal. Last year, the James Zadroga 9/11 Health and Compensation Act—which provided medical coverage to workers who searched for victims at the site of the attack and who cleared the debris—expired. These workers were exposed to a variety of toxins, and hundreds of them have died from a range of afflictions, including various cancers. (Zadroga was a a New York City cop who died of a respiratory disease attributed to his participation in the rescue and recovery operations.) House and Senate members proposed a $3.5 billion extension that would last for 75 years. New York officials pleaded with Congress to pass the bill. Former Daily Show host Jon Stewart joined former rescue and recovery workers in lobbying Congress to adopt the legislation.

Many legislators in the House and the Senate heeded the call. Sixty-eight senators co-sponsored the bill, which had been introduced by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.). This list included 23 Republicans, but not Cruz.

Last August, Richard Alles, a deputy fire chief and board member of Citizens for the Extension of the James Zadroga Act, wrote to Cruz and asked if he would support the bill—and if he would sign the bill if he were president. Cruz didn’t respond. Months later, Alles tried again. Still, nothing from Cruz.

Meanwhile, Republican leaders refused to move the bill forward, and it became a victim of partisan maneuvering involving a big transportation spending bill. Eventually, the 9/11 bill was stuffed into a must-pass spending bill at the end of last year, and Congress approved this package. In the Senate, the vote was 65 to 33. Cruz voted no. Of course, he and other GOPers had reasons to oppose the overall spending measure. And this week, Cruz told Mother Jones, “I very much supported the Zadroga Act, it was just rolled into a giant omnibus that required funding Obamacare, funding President Obama’s illegal amnesty, funding the president’s foolhardy plan to bring tens of thousands of Syrian Muslim refugees who could be ISIS terrorists to America. So I voted against the omnibus because I oppose those policies. I would have enthusiastically voted for the Zadroga Act as a freestanding bill.” But Cruz had not co-sponsored the 9/11 legislation. And he had ignored requests to explain his position.

Cruz’s failure to publicly support the 9/11 rescue and recovery workers certainly left him vulnerable to criticism from New Yorkers and others. After Cruz in January made his crack about “New York values” and tried to recover by praising New York cops and firefighters, Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.) called him a “fraud” and pointed to his lack of public support for the Zadroga Act. And Harold Schaitberger, president of the International Association of Fire Fighters, declared, “He left the 9/11 responders behind.”

So here was a ready-made issue for Trump to use against Cruz during the New York primary. Yet Trump had just as lousy a record on the Zadroga Act. Advocates for the bill have slammed the GOP front-runner—who often praises cops and hails New York City’s 9/11 efforts—for doing nothing to help pass the measure. As ABC News reported in January:

Facing the expiration of the James Zadroga Act in October—a law passed in 2010 to fund health care for more than 70,000 sick first responders and the 9/11 Victim Compensation Fund—Alles and other advocates asked all the presidential candidates to support a bipartisan bill to permanently fund the programs.

Trump’s campaign did not return multiple letters and calls requesting his support for reauthorizing the Zadroga Act last fall, said Alles, who drafted the letters to the candidates as a board member of the group Citizens for the Extension of the James Zadroga Act. The campaign also did not respond to requests for comment from reporters covering the story at the time.

“It frustrated the hell out of me because he’s such a supporter of law enforcement,” said Anthony Flammia, a retired NYPD officer and registered Republican who said he hasn’t settled on which presidential candidate he’ll be voting for. “He didn’t even comment on it.”

Trump’s campaign would not respond to repeated requests from ABC News for comment.

Trump has repeatedly clashed with Cruz rhetorically over “New York values” and has attempted to use 9/11 as a political weapon against the Texas senator. But when the matter at hand was whether to provide assistance to those who responded heroically to the horrific attack, there was basically no difference between the two. They each told these New Yorkers: Fuggedaboutit.

Additional reporting by Pema Levy.

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How Cruz and Trump Dissed 9/11 Rescue Workers

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The Time Ted Cruz Defended a Ban on Dildos

Mother Jones

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In one chapter of his campaign book, A Time for Truth, Sen. Ted Cruz proudly chronicles his days as a Texas solicitor general, a post he held from 2003 to 2008. Bolstering his conservative cred, the Republican presidential candidate notes that during his stint as the state’s chief lawyer before the Supreme Court and federal and state appellate courts, he defended the inclusion of “under God” in the Pledge of Allegiance, the display of the Ten Commandments on the grounds of the state capitol, a congressional redistricting plan that assisted Republicans, a restrictive voter identification law, and a ban on late-term abortions. He also described cases in which he championed gun rights and defended the conviction of a Mexican citizen who raped and murdered two teenage girls in a case challenged by the World Court. Yet one case he does not mention is the time he helped defend a law criminalizing the sale of dildos.

The case was actually an important battle concerning privacy and free speech rights. In 2004, companies that owned Austin stores selling sex toys and a retail distributor of such products challenged a Texas law outlawing the sale and promotion of supposedly obscene devices. Under the law, a person who violated the statute could go to jail for up to two years. At the time, only three states—Mississippi, Alabama, and Virginia—had similar laws. (The previous year, a Texas mother who was a sales rep for Passion Parties was arrested by two undercover cops for selling vibrators and other sex-related goods at a gathering akin to a Tupperware party for sex toys. No doubt, this had worried businesses peddling such wares.) The plaintiffs in the sex-device case contended the state law violated the right to privacy under the 14th Amendment. They argued that many people in Texas used sexual devices as an aspect of their sexual experiences. They claimed that in some instances one partner in a couple might be physically unable to engage in intercourse or have a contagious disease (such as HIV) and that in these cases such devices could allow a couple to engage in safe sex.

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The Time Ted Cruz Defended a Ban on Dildos

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Donald Trump Abandons Pledge to Support GOP Nominee

Mother Jones

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After previously pledging to support whoever becomes the Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump said Tuesday that promise no longer stands. Instead, Trump said during CNN’s town hall in Wisconsin, “we’ll see who it is.”

Trump repeatedly noted in Tuesday that he does not need the support of Ted Cruz or of any of the GOP contenders who have dropped out, including Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, saying he doesn’t want to make anyone “uncomfortable.”

“I don’t want his support, I don’t need his support, I want him to be comfortable,” Trump said of Cruz.

Cruz, who appeared first during the town hall, was also asked whether he would support Trump if he is the nominee. Cruz refused to explicitly answer the question.

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Donald Trump Abandons Pledge to Support GOP Nominee

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The 7 Best Moments of the GOP Debate in Houston

Mother Jones

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When the five remaining GOP candidates met Thursday night for the final debate before Super Tuesday, the stakes had never been higher. The first four contests are now over, and on Tuesday, voters in 11 states will head to the polls. Time is running out to slow Donald Trump’s momentum—and the urgency was palpable.

Going into this debate, the media had focused on the fact that Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio were more interested in attacking each other than stopping Trump. But on Thursday night, that began to change. Rubio, in particular, took aim at Trump and did not let up. Cruz was less dogged, but he did piggy-back on several of Rubio’s attacks against the real estate billionaire. Rubio didn’t simply hammer the front-runner on policy issues—he also worked hard to convince voters that Trump is mired in lawsuits and scandal. The exchanges repeatedly devolved into yelling matches between the candidates.

The debate—the 10th for the GOP this primary season—was hosted by CNN and Telemundo in Houston and also featured John Kasich and Ben Carson, but it was the first without Jeb Bush.

Here are the top highlights from the debate:

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The 7 Best Moments of the GOP Debate in Houston

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