Tag Archives: veins

China Seems to Be Lying About Its Unemployment Rate

by EzekielMontoya Posted on August 19, 2015

Mother Jones

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What’s the unemployment rate in China? Last month it was 4.1 percent. The month before it was 4.1 percent. Last year it was also 4.1 percent. And in 2013? That’s right: 4.1 percent.

A new NBER paper calls this “abnormally low and suspiciously stable,” which seems like a fair judgment. So the authors, their suspicions piqued, used a nationally representative household survey to calculate the actual unemployment rate. Unsurprisingly, it turns out to differ substantially from 4.1 percent. The chart above (modified from the paper to show the two series more clearly) shows data through 2009, which is as far as the household series goes. The actual unemployment rate has been above 10 percent ever since 2002, and is likely even higher than that now, given the sputtering economic problems in China.

As of 2009, unemployment was highest among young, non-college educated women (about 17 percent). It’s lowest among older college-educated men and women. But college is no longer a job guarantee for the young: the unemployment rate among young, college-educated men is 8 percent. Among women it’s about 10 percent.

“Keep an eye on China and don’t be surprised by the unexpected,” says Alex Tabarrok. “In China it’s not just the unemployment rate that is more volatile than it appears.”

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China Seems to Be Lying About Its Unemployment Rate

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E-Cigarettes May or May Not Be a Gateway Drug. (But Probably Not.)

by Juliann48Z Posted on August 18, 2015

Mother Jones

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Are e-cigarettes a gateway drug to traditional cigarettes? There’s a new study out that suggests they might be:

The study focused on ninth-graders at 10 public schools in Los Angeles who had tried e-cigarettes before the fall of 2013. Researchers surveyed those students in the spring of 2014 and fall of 2014, and discovered that they were about 2½ times as likely as their peers to have smoked traditional cigarettes.

This is a classic case of correlation which may or may not also be causation (something the authors acknowledge). Did more of the e-cigarette kids take up smoking because e-cigarattes gave them a taste for it? Or do the kids who are most likely to take up smoking in the first place simply start with e-cigarettes? There’s no way to tell just from this study.

That’s not to say it’s worthless, though. If the study found no correlation, then you could be pretty sure that e-cigarettes don’t lead to cigarette smoking. That would be worth knowing. But since it did find a correlation, we need more research to know if there’s causation here.

One way to get a tentative read on this is to look at total cigarette smoking among teens. If it’s up, then e-cigarettes might be leading more kids to cigarettes. If it’s not up, then e-cigarettes are probably just temporarily replacing cigarettes for kids who were going to take up smoking anyway. So which is it?

As it happens, we know the answer to this: cigarette smoking has plunged among teenagers over the past four years. On the other hand, total cigarette use among teens (cigarettes + e-cigarettes) has gone up. The cigarette plunge makes it unlikely that e-cigarettes are a gateway to traditional cigarettes. But the increase in total cigarette use suggests that e-cigarettes really are creating a new market. It’s complicated.

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E-Cigarettes May or May Not Be a Gateway Drug. (But Probably Not.)

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Quote of the Day: No Dessert For You!

by QuyenClarkson Posted on February 6, 2015

Mother Jones

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From Tyler Cowen:

I would be happy enough if all desserts were simply dark chocolate ice cream or gelato, consumed rapidly and perhaps at a different venue altogether.

Well, that would certainly put a crimp in the dessert business, wouldn’t it? It would actually work out OK for me, but I have a feeling the rest of the world might get bored pretty quickly by an endless series of meals that finish off with dark chocolate gelato.

Anyway, it turns out that restaurant owners are on Cowen’s side. Desserts don’t bring in much money, but they do cause diners to linger around their tables. “You have to turn the tables,” says one restaurant owner, and desserts just get in the way of that. Very sad.

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Quote of the Day: No Dessert For You!

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Friday Cat Blogging – 30 January 2015

by ArthurAEOG Posted on January 30, 2015

Mother Jones

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My fatigue level is off the charts today. I have no idea what’s causing this. But there are always plenty of catblogging pictures available, and you can hardly go wrong with Hilbert in a bag, can you? Enjoy.

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Friday Cat Blogging – 30 January 2015

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