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2016 Is the Year That Voters Finally Got Tired of Reality

Mother Jones

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Jeff Stein makes a potentially important point today:

On Saturday, about 80,000 voters participated in Nevada’s caucus — roughly two-thirds of the total that came out in 2008….Low turnout in Nevada wasn’t an outlier. New Hampshire saw 10 percent fewer voters in 2016 than it did eight years ago. In Iowa, turnout was also down — from 287,000 in 2008 to 171,000 this year.

….Sanders thinks “the core failure” of Obama’s presidency is its failure to convert voter enthusiasm in 2008 into a durable, mobilized organizing force beyond the election. Sanders vows to rectify this mistake by maintaining the energy from the campaign for subsequent fights against the corporate interests and in congressional and state elections.

The relatively low voter turnout in the Democratic primary so far makes this more sweeping plan seem laughably implausible. Three states have voted, we’ve had countless debates and town halls, and there’s been wall-to-wall media coverage for weeks….And yet … we have little evidence that Sanders has actually activated a new force in electoral politics. If he can’t match the excitement generated by Obama on the campaign trail, how can he promise to exceed it once in office?

Of course, it’s one thing to say that Sanders hasn’t generated huge turnouts in a primary against a fellow Democrat, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t generate a huge turnout against a Trump or a Cruz. The problem, of course, is that Hillary Clinton would quite likely generate a huge turnout as well. The prospect of either Trump or Cruz in the Oval Office would do wonders for Democratic panic no matter who the nominee is.

Sadly, turnout is a red herring. The real lesson of this year’s election is that candidates have learned there are no limits to what they can promise. Campaigning is always an exercise in salesmanship, and salesmen always overpromise. This year, though, we have two candidates who cavalierly and repeatedly promise the moon without making even a pretense that they have the slightest notion of how to accomplish any of it. And voters love it! Trump’s crowds go wild over the idea of Mexico paying for a wall and Sanders’ audiences go equally wild over his plan to blow away the entire American health care system and replace it with the NHS. This is the year that fantasy sells, and it sells big.

The conventional wisdom is that this is happening because voters are uniquely angry this year and attracted to outsiders who say they’re going to blow up the system. Maybe so. But I’ve heard that story pretty much every year for nearly my entire adult life, and weak economy or not I don’t really buy it. What’s different this year isn’t the electorate, it’s the candidates. American voters have always had an odd habit of simply believing whatever presidential candidates say, regardless of plausibility or past record, and this year two candidates have tested this to destruction. And guess what? It turns out that a lot of Americans will almost literally believe anything. I mean, China bashing and Wall Street bashing have always been good for some cheap applause, but this year we’re hearing blithe claims about crushing China by taxing them to death and smashing big banks into little bitty pieces, and the crowds are applauding even harder.

Trump and Sanders have shown that you can take overpromising to a far higher level than anyone ever thought possible. Is this unique to 2016? Or will others learn this lesson too? I guess we’ll have to wait for 2020 to find out.

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2016 Is the Year That Voters Finally Got Tired of Reality

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Hillary Clinton Wins Nevada

Mother Jones

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Well, it looks like Hillary Clinton won Nevada after all. Only by about five points, probably, but that’s enough. It means she avoids a crippling week of headlines declaring her a loser and anointing Bernie Sanders with all the momentum.

That’s why even a few points can make all the difference. Clinton is 25 points ahead in South Carolina, and now she’ll probably be able to keep most of that lead, which will produce yet more good press heading into Super Tuesday. If she runs the table there or even comes close—which she has a good chance of doing—it’s pretty much over for Sanders.

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Hillary Clinton Wins Nevada

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Apple-FBI Spat Enters the Twilight Zone

Mother Jones

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What in God’s name is this all about? In its motion filed Friday to force Apple to create a special version of iOS that would allow the FBI to crack the San Bernardino attacker’s iPhone, a footnote revealed that Apple and the FBI had discussed several options for obtaining information on the phone:

The four suggestions that Apple and the FBI discussed (and their deficiencies) were….(3) to attempt an auto-backup of the SUBJECT DEVICE with the related iCloud account (which would not work in this case because neither the owner nor the government knew the password to the iCloud account, and the owner, in an attempt to gain access to some information in the hours after the attack, was able to reset the password remotely, but that had the effect of eliminating the possibility of an auto-backup).

With the iCloud password changed, the iPhone can’t connect to the iCloud account and do a backup. But Apple says it wasn’t Syed Farook who changed the password:

Apple executives said the company had been in regular discussions with the government since early January, and that it proposed four different ways to recover the information the government is interested in without building a backdoor. One of those methods would have involved connecting the iPhone to a known Wi-Fi network and triggering an iCloud backup that might provide the FBI with information stored to the device between the October 19th and the date of the incident.

Apple sent trusted engineers to try that method, the executives said, but they were unable to do it. It was then that they discovered that the Apple ID password associated with the iPhone had been changed. (The FBI claimed earlier Friday that this was done by someone at the San Bernardino Health Department.)

Friday night, however, things took a further turn when the San Bernardino County’s official Twitter account stated, “The County was working cooperatively with the FBI when it reset the iCloud password at the FBI’s request.”

This is pretty bizarre. Why did the FBI say it was Farook in their court filing if they knew it wasn’t? And how did the San Berdoo Health Department change the iCloud password, anyway? You need the old password to do that. But if they know the old password, why can’t they change it back? Very mysterious.

UPDATE: Apparently there are a couple of ways this could have happened. If the Health Department knew Farook’s email account, they might have been able to use the “Forgot my password” option to reset it. Alternately, if the phone was MDM managed, they might have been able to reset the passcode remotely. However, that seems unlikely since they would have had other, better options if they had been using MDM.

Why did the Health Department have the phone, anyway? I’m surprised the police or the FBI didn’t snatch it instantly.

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Apple-FBI Spat Enters the Twilight Zone

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Updated: Hillary Clinton Wins the Nevada Democratic Caucuses

Mother Jones

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Hillary Clinton appears to have eked out a win in the Nevada Democratic caucuses on Saturday. With more than half of precincts reporting, the networks called this third contest of the 2016 Democratic primary in Clinton’s favor around 5 p.m. ET.

Bernie Sanders kept it close, but Clinton performed well in Las Vegas’ Clark County, especially among minority voters, helping the former secretary of state hang on for the victory.

Sanders congratulated Clinton on her win, but framed the close results as something of a victory for his campaign, which was far behind in the state until the past week.

And in case you were wondering, there were no coin flips. There were, however, the far more reasonable games of high card.

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Updated: Hillary Clinton Wins the Nevada Democratic Caucuses

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Donald Trump Might Be Single-Handedly Ruining the Economy

Mother Jones

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Companies and things Donald Trump has started boycotting in the past few months:

  1. Oreo cookies
  2. Carrier air conditioners
  3. iPhones and all other Apple products
  4. Starbucks
  5. Macy’s
  6. The Republican debate, for a while anyway
  7. Traveling to Mexico
  8. HBO
  9. Univision

Typically, the reason for the boycott is some kind of personal feud (5, 6, 8, 9); companies making things overseas (1, 2); companies doing things he disapproves of (3, 4); and countries doing things he disapproves of (7).

In fairness, he’s on the business end of plenty of boycotts too. He might personally be responsible for last quarter’s lousy economic growth.

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Donald Trump Might Be Single-Handedly Ruining the Economy

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These Porn Stars Want the Government Off Their Backs

Mother Jones

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Dozens of porn stars—some in business casual, others more colorfully dressed—mingled outside the Elihu M. Harris State Building auditorium in Oakland, California, on Thursday morning, trading notes on the speeches they planned to make when they testified before California’s Occupational Safety and Health Standards Board (OSHA). After six years of advisory committees and meetings, the board was set to vote on a package of regulations they hoped would protect the actors against sexually transmitted infections—a measure publicized as a “condoms in porn” mandate. But workers in the porn industry opposed the rules, which they said did not account for the realities of their work or respect for their personal autonomy. The Free Speech Coalition, a porn industry trade group, brought porn stars from Los Angeles to join others from San Francisco’s kink- and gay-porn scenes in speaking out against the regulations.

“We’re not fighting safety,” Mickey Mod, a veteran porn performer and producer, told the panel. “These are our bodies, and we work with them every day. Every day, I trust the men and women who are on our side to be as safe as possible.”

Since the regulations were first proposed in 2009, some porn advocates and public-health academics have offered suggestions that they say make the rules more realistic for those in the multibillion-dollar industry. Many of them say they have felt ignored. On one draft of the regulations, the OSHA board dismissed all of the Free Speech Coalition’s 37 concerns, including objections that the measure failed to sufficiently protect workers’ medical privacy and ignored the possibility of using HIV-prevention drugs as an option for protection. “We understand that they feel it will affect their livelihood, but Cal/OSHA’s primary concern is the health and safety of workers,” an exasperated public information officer from the California Department of Industrial Relations, which includes OSHA, told me before the meeting.

A few minutes before the meeting, Eric Paul Leue, the Free Speech Coalition’s executive director, spoke privately to the workers, urging them to stay optimistic and reminding them that the OSHA board was in a difficult position. “Usually, workers and the board are fighting employers,” he said. “In this case, the workers and employers are fighting together.”

After nearly five hours of testimony, in which about 100 performers, directors, and production staff members spoke against the package of regulations—and a few former performers expressed support for it—the OSHA board struggled with the apparent contradiction of workers who were actively opposed to the OSHA protections. “I’m a labor representative. I work with working people for a living,” Dave Harrison, an OSHA board member, said. When he first heard about the regulations, “it was almost like, ‘Oh, okay, the porn industry’s coming out for an issue. What’s going to happen here?'” He chuckled. “But as the rule-making process works through, I’m actually more torn over this than I could ever explain.”

For the measure to succeed, four votes were needed, but it failed in a final vote when three board members voted for the regulations and two opposed it.

Here’s what you need to know about the proposed rules and the conflict that surrounds them:

What did OSHA propose? Some regulations already exist, but the ones that were proposed would have added a section to the OSHA code that specifically described the actions porn producers needed to take to protect workers from STIs. The regulations would have required the use of condoms, plastic barriers (known as “dental dams”) for oral sex, gloves, goggles, and other gear to block contact with bodily fluids that can carry infection. Similar requirements for all industries already exist under federal and state regulations, but they’re not well enforced. Since 2004, when OSHA began enforcing STI regulations at porn companies, they’ve only issued a handful of citations. Proponents argued that new regulations were needed to clarify the responsibilities of adult-film producers.

If condoms are already required, why is this a big deal? Because the porn industry ignores the condom requirement. Many industry workers argue that porn viewers do not “want to see dental dams, they don’t want to see gloves, they don’t want to see kissing with something in between,” explains Kevin Quintero, a cameraman for Treasure Island Media, a San Francisco-based gay-porn production studio. “That ruins their suspension of disbelief.” But if the proposal resulted in more aggressive enforcement, producers and performers say they would be forced to move away from California or to find work “underground.” Quintero says that would mean working for producers “who promote drug use, promote unsafe situations, who don’t care about their performers’ safety, usually only care about the ‘money shot’ or getting what they need. Oftentimes, it can be exploitative…I fought really hard to get out.”

What other regulations would the industry face? The proposal also would have put new testing regulations in place, requiring vaccinations and STI testing every three months. The requirements would have been less stringent than unofficial regulations that already exist in the porn industry under a system known as PASS, in which actors must pass a blood test every two weeks or they are not permitted to work. Repeatedly, performers have stressed that they feel safer having sex with other porn stars in the PASS system than they do with “civilians” outside of work. Some have also raised concerns about the possibility of confidential medical information being shared with their employers.

What’s the opposing position? OSHA argues that frequent testing isn’t the same as prevention. Several performers testified Thursday that they’d gone entire careers without contracting an STI, but past research has indicated a high rate of gonorrhea and chlamydia among performers. Earlier this month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published a report documenting an incident involving male adult-film actors, in which an actor received a false-negative result on an HIV test in 2014 and then went on to infect two other people before his next testing date. Newly HIV-positive performers have forced the industry to declare periodic shutdowns, during which production is suspended for a few days while all the actors receive testing. Advocates have maintained that most infected performers do not contract HIV on set.

That’s no comfort to Sofia Delgado, one of the few performers who supported the regulations at the OSHA meeting. Delgado told me that she had been working in porn for just months when she tested positive for HIV in 2013, at age 20. Afterward, she couldn’t work, and now she says she’s saddled with thousands of dollars in medical expenses each month. “I felt so safe,” Delgado told me. “Everybody I was with was tested, but it didn’t matter.” If her partners had been using condoms, she says, she would at least be sure she didn’t contract HIV while working. Back then, PASS required testing once a month. “You’re having sex every day, so for 30 days you’re exposing God knows how many people to disease,” she said.

Additionally, the new regulations would have required producers, not actors, to pay for tests, saving employees hundreds of dollars per month—a point that none of the workers brought up in their anti-regulation presentations.

What does this mean for porn? The failure of the regulations will likely keep producers from moving out-of-state to avoid fines and hassle. After Los Angeles County passed a law in 2012 that required porn actors to wear condoms and companies to pay a fee to the county’s department of public health, the county saw a 95 percent drop-off in film production permits, which means companies either left, went “underground,” or filmed without permits.

What’s next? The fight over safe-sex precautions in porn will continue despite the defeat of the OSHA proposal. The next time it will be in the form of a proposition appearing on the 2016 California ballot. In the meantime, the OSHA regulators will go back to the drawing board—only this time, members of the board noted, they will listen more closely to the concerns of those in the industry.

Meanwhile, the AIDS Healthcare Foundation, which submitted the original petition to OSHA to amend the regulations in 2009, has also pledged to file a new petition. The foundation, which is controversial among AIDS activists for its objection to HIV-prevention medication, is also behind the statewide ballot initiative as well as several lawsuits attempting to compel condom use in porn.

“I always expect the establishment to not hear us, not respect us, not listen to us, not pay attention to our lived experience,” says Nina Hartley, a longtime performer and outspoken porn advocate. “This shows that some people are open to hearing challenging ideas and maybe changing their opinion. I don’t know if anybody on the board likes porn, but they are clearly seeing us as humans, as actual people, and not just as a projection and not a stereotype, and that’s huge.”

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These Porn Stars Want the Government Off Their Backs

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Donald Trump Trots Out Tale Of Muslims, Pig Blood, and Bullets

Mother Jones

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Donald Trump ended his final campaign rally of the South Carolina primary Friday night with a story about a four-star general, Muslim insurgents, and bullets dunked in pig blood. Forty minutes into his address at a not-quite-full convention center in North Charleston, after mocking Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s lack of enthusiasm for waterboarding, the Republican presidential frontrunner told the crowd he wanted to share an anecdote he’d heard about General John Pershing.

“General Pershing was a rough guy,” Trump said. He explained that during the early 1900s, the general was battling Muslim insurgents in the US-controlled Philippines, he decided to make a point:

He caught 50 terrorists who did tremendous damage…and he took the 50 terrorists and he took 50 men and dipped 50 bullets in pig’s blood. You heard about that? He took 50 bullets and dipped them in pig’s blood which is considered haram. And he has his men load up their rifles and he lined up the 50 people and they shot 49 of those people. And the 50th person, he said, you go back to your people and you tell them what happened. And for 25 years there wasn’t a problem.

“We’ve got to start getting tough and we’ve got to start being vigilant and we’ve got to start using our heads or we’re not gonna have a country, folks,” he concluded.

Snopes, the online mythbuster, classifies the Pershing tale—which is popular on the right—as a “legend.” “We haven’t eliminated the possibility… but so far all we’ve turned up are several different accounts with nothing that documents Pershing’s involvement,” it explains.

But a lack of evidence has never stopped Trump, especially when it comes to the anti-Islam invective that has helped keep him atop the polls in South Carolina. His proposal to ban Muslims from entering the United States is hugely popular among Republicans; a recent survey of his supporters found that just 44 percent believed Islam should even be legal. So with his candidacy on the line, he’s sticking with what got him to this point.

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Donald Trump Trots Out Tale Of Muslims, Pig Blood, and Bullets

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Friday Cat Blogging – 19 February 2016

Mother Jones

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Today we have bunk bed kitties. Among felines, I’m not sure whether the alpha gets the top bunk or the bottom bunk. Since they usually like hiding in nooks and crannies, I’m guessing bottom bunk. Other evidence corroborates this. Hopper used to let Hilbert bully her, but lately she barely even opens an eyelid when he tries to push her around. And sure enough, he just sadly backs away. Poor thing. He used to think he was the toughest mammal in the house, but time has taught him otherwise.

Also, Hopper bit his ear a few days ago. If that doesn’t get the message across, I don’t know what will.

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Friday Cat Blogging – 19 February 2016

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Ted Cruz Wins the Family Values Endorsement

Mother Jones

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Exciting news! Former South Carolina governor Mark “Appalachian Trail” Sanford has endorsed….

Ted Cruz! This is quite a coup. As you no doubt remember, Sanford demonstrated his commitment to traditional Republican values by starting up an extramarital affair; disappearing to Buenos Aires for a six-day vacation with his beloved; telling his spokesman to claim that he was gone because he was “hiking the Appalachian Trail”; and then tearfully admitting his affair and claiming that he had found his “soul mate.” He subsequently got divorced, and later on broke up with his soul mate.

In fairness, the generous folks of South Carolina decided to elect him to Congress in 2013. So I guess all is forgiven. Certainly Ted Cruz has forgiven him.

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Ted Cruz Wins the Family Values Endorsement

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Obama Kept His Immigration Reform Promise to Latinos in the Only Way That Actually Matters in Politics

Mother Jones

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Dara Lind reports that young Latinos are torn between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. But not because of anything either candidate has said:

Instead, the president on their mind is Obama. They’re still wrestling with his failure to keep his campaign promise to pass immigration reform, and the record deportations of his first term.

….”My biggest fear,” says Jocelyn Sida of the civic engagement group Mi Familia Vota, “is that the mentality of Latinos is going to be all about broken promises, don’t trust any candidate or campaign.”…Sida’s reference to “broken promises” is right on. For many — especially for young Latinos, many of whom came of political age during the Obama administration — the outgoing president is associated with the promise he made, then broke, on immigration reform, as well as the deportations that took place in its stead.

There are lots of obvious things to say before I comment about this. I’m not young. I’m not Latino. I’m not idealistic. And I’m a pretty big fan of Obama. So I have my own biases.

And yet…there’s still something dispiriting about this. Did Obama break his promise to introduce comprehensive immigration reform in his first year? Yes indeed. He says it was because the economy had collapsed and he had to spend all his time dealing with that. But no one really buys that. The stimulus bill passed pretty quickly, and during the rest of his first year Obama found time to deal with health care, Afghanistan, General Motors, climate change, touring the Middle East, and plenty of other things. Was he really so busy that he couldn’t spend some time on immigration reform?

The answer is that Obama is skirting the truth here—but, oddly for a politician, not in a way designed to make him look better. The real truth is that during an epic unemployment crisis he had no chance of getting the votes to pass immigration reform. So like any president, he triaged. He spent his time on other things in hopes that he could make a successful run at immigration reform a little later. Was this the right call? We’ll never know, but it sure strikes me as correct.

In the end, of course, disaster struck: Democrats lost their House majority in 2010, and even with a strong enforcement record (all those deportations) and Republican support, immigration reform could no longer pass. But this is hardly the end of the story. Obama signed the mini-DREAM executive order in 2012. He worked hard to pass comprehensive reform in 2013. He signed another historic executive order in 2014 aimed at immigrant adults. And although this is seldom given much attention, the biggest beneficiaries of Obamacare have been Hispanics.

So did Obama break his promise? Yes. Should young Latinos be demanding that the next president make immigration reform a priority? Yes. That’s how you get things done.

But should they feel betrayed by Obama? I don’t think so. The nutshell version is this: Every president has to decide which of his priorities can pass Congress. If Obama had tried to push immigration reform in 2009, it almost certainly wouldn’t have passed, no matter how hard he had pushed. That’s the fault of reality, not presidential willpower. So, as Obama so often does, he waited. He waited for the economy to improve, and in the meantime he tried to set the stage for success with a strong enforcement record—even at the expense of losing political support from an important voting bloc. When the time came, he worked with Republicans and came close to passing something. But the House balked and it failed.

None of this would have changed if Obama had barreled ahead in his first year. He would have lost just as badly, but two other things would also have happened. First, some of his other first-year initiatives would likely have fallen by the wayside. Second, he would have had a big, symbolic losing fight to his name. That would have done him a world of good in the Hispanic community, but he wasn’t willing to go down that cynical path.

I’m not young. I’m not Latino. I’m not idealistic. But I don’t consider it a betrayal to have a president who shows me the respect of foregoing the cheap and cynical political stunt in favor of a longer, tougher, but more realistic chance of getting something actually done.

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Obama Kept His Immigration Reform Promise to Latinos in the Only Way That Actually Matters in Politics

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