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This could be the hottest year on record, again

This could be the hottest year on record, again

21 Oct 2014 3:06 PM

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This could be the hottest year on record, again

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Hold onto your hats. Or parasols. It’s getting warmer.

The land and sea temperatures are in for last month, and it was the hottest September in 135 years of record keeping by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. May, June, and August also set records.

That means 2014 has tied 1998 for the warmest first nine months on record — and it will likely surpass 2010 for warmest year on record. In fact, there’s been a lot of record breaking these last few years. The AP’s Seth Borenstein reports:

If 2014 breaks the record for hottest year, that also should sound familiar: 1995, 1997, 1998, 2005 and 2010 all broke NOAA records for the hottest years since records started being kept in 1880.

“This is one of many indicators that climate change has not stopped and that it continues to be one of the most important issues facing humanity,” said University of Illinois climate scientist Donald Wuebbles.

Some people, mostly non-scientists, have been claiming that the world has not warmed in 18 years, but “no one’s told the globe that,” [NOAA climate scientist Jessica] Blunden said. She said NOAA records show no pause in warming.

In North America, temperatures were all over the map in the first nine months of this year. In the contiguous U.S., it was only 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit over the 20th century average. The West, however, was much warmer; California was a record-breaking 4.1 degrees above average.

So if your neighbor, or uncle, or hairdresser, or senatorial candidate doubts that the world is warming — because, hey, it was cold in some states this year, it even snowed! — here’s a chart with the latest data you can direct him or her to:

Temperature anomalies (or variations from average) for the first nine months of each of the last 135 years.

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This could be the hottest year on record, again

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The Anthropocene is here, whether geologists make it official or not

Age of Us

The Anthropocene is here, whether geologists make it official or not

18 Oct 2014 7:00 AM

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The Anthropocene is here, whether geologists make it official or not

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Humans rule the world, for worse or for worse. This week, a 30-strong team of geologists, ecologists, and climate scientists from around the globe are meeting in Berlin to discuss whether we’ve entered into a new geologic “epoch of humans.” Their question, in Greek-inspired sciencese (scienglish? scienceGreek?): Is it time to declare the Holocene officially over and the Anthropocene underway?

Our question, in plain English: Does it even matter what these highbrows decide? The sixth mass extinction, a remarkable build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxiderapid sea-level rise, and the halving of the world’s wildlife populations — all human-caused — prove that the Anthropocene is upon us.

Popular discourse and scientists of every stripe aren’t waiting around for a royal decree from the egghead society to declare the Age of People a real phenomenon. CBS News reports that more than 500 scientific studies published this year alone have referred to the current time period as the Anthropocene. Grist has published dozens of stories about the Anthropocene concept, dating back to this 2008 think piece.

The big bureaucratic body that makes decisions about geologic time periods — the International Commission on Stratigraphy — responded to the overwhelming adoption of a term they’ve not formally approved by setting up this Anthropocene Working Group and giving it until 2016 to hash out a proposal.

So who’s in this little club? Twenty-nine men and one woman, which prompted this from the Twittersphere:

What these mostly white men are debating is whether humanity is leaving an impact on the earth that will affect the geologic record as much as other events that have marked new chapters in the planet’s history. If the ICS ultimately approves such an amendment to the geologic time scale, then somewhere a golden spike will be driven into a particular exposed rock layer to mark the epochal transformation.

Making it all official would be cool, but we don’t need their gilded nail to identify where humans took over the globe. That point in time will be distinguished by a layer of substances practically nonexistent in the pre-industrial geologic record: plastic particles, plutonium and other radioactive isotopes, as well as polyaromatic hydrocarbons and lead released by fossil fuel burning.

It would be a downer note to leave the story on that note. Instead, a poignant response to ecological-economic thinker Kate Raworth’s “Manthropocene” tweet:

Source:
Anthropocene: is this the new epoch of humans?

, The Guardian.

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Momentum for Next Generation Fuel

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Momentum for Next Generation Fuel

Posted 14 October 2014 in

National

The momentum is building for the renewable fuels industry in America. For the second month in a row, a new cellulosic ethanol facility is coming online — one of four new cellulosic ethanol facilities opening in the U.S. before the end of the year.

Located in Hugoton, Kansas, Abengoa Bioenergy’s new biomass-to-ethanol biorefinery will produce 25 million gallons of ethanol derived from nearly 300,000 tons of biomass annually. In addition, the facility will use the residue from the advanced ethanol production process to produce 21 megawatts of electricity — making the facility environmentally friendly and energy efficient.

Cellulosic ethanol is a low-emission, sustainable biofuel produced from agricultural waste. Blending that ethanol into our fuel will help to reduce our dependence on foreign oil — and make our air cleaner.

Learn about the Abengoa facility and the other new cellulosic ethanol plants in our infographic above.

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Momentum for Next Generation Fuel

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The Great Wage Slowdown of the 21st Century Is About a Lot More Than Just Wages

Mother Jones

David Leonhardt writes about why the economy looks so bad even though unemployment has fallen below 6 percent:

American workers have been receiving meager pay increases for so long now that it’s reasonable to talk in sweeping terms about the trend. It is the great wage slowdown of the 21st century.

Yes indeed. This started around the year 2000 and hasn’t changed since. But as I’ve written before, that’s not all that changed around the year 2000. Here’s a more comprehensive list:

  1. Median income growth slowed in the mid-70s, but it stalled almost completely around 2000 and hasn’t recovered since.
  2. Real-world investment opportunities began stagnating around 2000.
  3. Labor markets slackened permanently starting around 2000.
  4. The employment-population ratio among women plateaued around 2000 and continued its long-term decline among men.
  5. The labor share of income in the nonfinancial sector dropped steeply starting in 2000 and never recovered.
  6. The number of jobs created by new businesses peaked around 2000 and has been falling ever since.
  7. State and local government output suddenly stagnated around 2000.
  8. Globally, the energy intensity of GDP stopped growing around 2000, which means world economic growth became limited by energy growth.
  9. Household debt inflected upward in 2000, and kept growing until the Great Recession put a stop to it.

I call this the Inflection Point of 2000, and it seems like too many things, all happening at about the same time, to be mere coincidence. In my piece last year about our robotic future, I suggested that much of it might be the barely visible early signs of a more automated economy, and I still suspect that may be part of what’s going on. But I don’t know for sure, and the evidence on this score is distinctly fuzzy.

And yet. It sure feels like something changed right around 2000. But what?

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The Great Wage Slowdown of the 21st Century Is About a Lot More Than Just Wages

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Americans Are Rebelling Against Phone Surveys

Mother Jones

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Carl Bialik reports on the state of the state in political polling:

Fifteen pollsters told us their response rates for election polls this year and in 2012. The average response rate this year is 11.8 percent — down 1.9 percentage points from 2012. That may not sound like a lot, but when fewer than one in seven people responded to polls in 2012, there wasn’t much room to drop. It’s a decline of 14 percent, and it’s consistent across pollsters — 12 of the 15 reported a decline, and no one reported an increase.

These results are consistent with what pollsters have reported for years: that people are harder to reach by phone, and are less likely to want to talk to strangers when they are reached. Here, the pollsters show just how quickly response rates have fallen in only two years.

I assume the problem here is twofold. First, there are too many polls. A few decades ago it might have seemed like a big deal to get a call from a Gallup pollster. Sort of like being a Nielsen family. Today it’s not. Polls are now conducted so frequently, and the public has become so generally media savvy, that it’s just sort of a nuisance.

More generally, there are just too many spam phone calls. The Do Not Call Registry was a great idea, but there are (a) too many loopholes, including for pollsters, and (b) too many spammers who don’t give a damn. When the registry first went on line, my level of spam phone calls dropped dramatically. Since then, however, it’s gradually increased and is now nearly as bad as it ever was. I won’t even pick up the phone anymore if Caller ID suggests it’s a commercial call of some variety. Nor is there much likelihood that this situation is going to improve as long as the spammers are smart enough not to call Chuck Schumer’s cell phone.

So perhaps polling is going to end up being a victim of its own success. During election years I get two or three calls a month from pollsters, which is pretty remarkable if I’m anything close to average. It means pollsters are making something like 100 million or more calls per month across the country. Is that possible? It hardly seems like it. Maybe I’m an outlier. But one way or another, it’s a big number, and it’s no wonder that people are hanging up on them in droves.

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Americans Are Rebelling Against Phone Surveys

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Obama Plan Will Cut Out Grueling Journey For a Small Number of Central American Refugees

Mother Jones

Escaping rampant violence in parts of Central America, tens of thousands of child migrants made a treacherous journey up to the United States border this year. To help dissuade such a vulnerable population from taking such risky treks in the first place, Obama announced Tuesday that he plans to roll out a new program to allow children to apply for refugee status from their home countries of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras.


70,000 Kids Will Show Up Alone at Our Border This Year. What Happens to Them?


What’s Next for the Children We Deport?


Map: These Are the Places Central American Child Migrants Are Fleeing


Are the Kids Showing Up at the Border Really Refugees?


Child Migrants Have Been Coming to America Alone Since Ellis Island

The program is still in the planning stages, and it remains unclear how old the kids must be and what circumstances they must be caught in to successfully apply for asylum. But at least it’s a move in the right direction, says Michelle Brané of the Women’s Refugee Commission. “They are laying the groundwork and designating an avenue—it’s a good starting off point,” she says.

White House spokesperson Shawn Turner told the New York Times that the initiative is meant to “provide a safe, legal, and orderly alternative to the dangerous journey children are currently taking to join relatives in the United States.” The point made in the last part of this statement has caught the attention of human rights advocates including Brané, as it suggests that only children who already have a relative in the US will qualify for asylum under this new program, leaving out thousands who are trying to escape newly developing unrest and gang violence.

Advocates also worry about the number of applicants that will be granted asylum. The White House’s announcement projects that 4,000 people total from Latin America and the Caribbean could be granted refugee visas in fiscal year 2015. (Let’s not forget that region includes troubled countries like Cuba, Venezuela, and Haiti). The children who would be allowed to apply for refugee status from their home countries appear to be a subcategory of that 4,000. “That’s not even close to enough,” says Brané. “We saw 60,000 kids arrive from Central America this year.”

One study by the UN High Commissioner of Refugees revealed that 60 percent of recent child migrants interviewed expressed a targeted fear, like a death threat, which is the type of experience that can qualify you for asylum. If you use that statistic, that means 36,000 of the kids who crossed the border this year should qualify for refugee visas—nine times the total number Obama is promising.

But Brané says an even bigger concern with the program is its potential to eclipse or replace protections given to targeted migrants who arrive at the Mexico/US border. “A program like this is fine as a complementary approach,” she says, “but it cannot replace protection at the border; it should not impede access to asylum in the US.” Ironically, it’s the children whose lives are most threatened that could have the hardest time applying for refugee status from their home countries. “In some of these cases, kids have a threat against their lives,” says Brané. “They don’t have time to stand in line, file an application, come back later, stand in line again. They have to leave immediately.”

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Obama Plan Will Cut Out Grueling Journey For a Small Number of Central American Refugees

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Is 2014 the "Tipping Point" for the GMO Labeling Movement?

Mother Jones

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Is this the year that voters will finally insist on knowing which supermarket foods contain genetically modified organisms? Activists in Oregon say the momentum is on their side for a GMO labeling initiative on the November ballot. “The electorate in Oregon has a greater awareness of this issue than in other states,” says Sandeep Kaushik, a spokesman for Yes On 92, as the initiative is known. “We are approaching a tipping point.”

Read “How Dr. Bronner’s Turned Activism Into Good Clean Fun

In 2002, Oregon became first state to try and pass a GMO labeling initiative—Measure 27 lost by a margin of more than 2 to 1. But the more recent initiatives in California and Washington suffered far narrower defeats, despite a barrage of attack ads bankrolled by biotech, grocery, and ag conglomerates. Washington’s I-522, the most expensive ballot measure in state history, lost by barely 1 percent—a mere 19,000 votes.

Oregon may now be poised to finish what it started: A poll released in July by Oregon Public Broadcasting put support for GMO labeling at a whopping 77 percent. Even if it wins, Oregon probably won’t be the first state to require disclosure. A labeling bill approved in April by the Vermont Legislature takes effect in 2016, assuming it doesn’t get overturned by a lawsuit. Maine and Connecticut have also passed GMO labeling laws, though they’re contingent upon further regional support. Such laws are common outside the United States, and this year alone, according to Slate, 25 states have proposed 67 pieces of legislation related to GMO labeling. But the Oregon prop (and possibly a similar one in Colorado) would be the first directly enacted by voters—a major PR victory for the movement against GMO foods.

Despite the unpopularity of GMOs with consumers, the debate over their health and environmental impacts is far from settled. While the commercialization of GMOs has triggered few health complaints, long-term studies on the chronic health effects of GMOs have been sparse. Pest- and herbicide-resistant GMO crops have boosted yields around the world, benefiting farmers and the poor, but they have also spawned chemical resistant “superbugs” and “superweeds.”

The labeling campaigns are designed to bypass the thorny scientific debate by reframing the issue around the consumer’s “right to know.” This idea polls extremely well with voters, but not so well that it can’t be overcome by an avalanche of spending on political ads. For instance, 66 percent of Washington voters supported I-522 in the summer of 2013, yet some $22 million in spending against the measure whittled support down to 49 percent by Election Day. A similar phenomenon is under way in Oregon, where a poll released by a Portland TV station last week showed that voter support for the labeling measure has fallen to 53 percent, with 16 percent undecided.

Advocates for Oregon’s I-92 remain optimistic, however. While rural areas of Washington and California are strongly opposed to labeling, that’s less the case so far in Oregon, where GMO contamination incidents have angered farmers and two rural counties have banned cultivation of GM crops. The Oregon measure is also well timed: Young voters, who tend to support labeling, didn’t turn out to vote last year in Washington, but Oregonians will cast ballots this year on a pot legalization initiative, which is seen as a potential magnet for the non-AARP crowd. Anti-GMO activists, for the first time, are also funding a registration drive to target young voters.

For now, at least, I-92’s backers have raised more money than its opponents, but nobody expects that advantage to last. In Washington, the anti-GMO crowd was outspent 3 to 1, and the chasm would have been even wider were it not for the heavy involvement of a few organics companies, notably Dr. Bronner’s Magic Soaps, which is shoveling money at the Oregon effort.

Unlike its opponents in Big Food and Ag, Dr. Bronner’s hasn’t entered the fight to retain its own bottom line, at least not directly—GMOs don’t play much of a role in the soap business. Yet the company has become a fascinating model for how genuine corporate activism can increase sales and create a fiercely loyal customer base, as I noted last year in a profile of David Bronner, the family business’ idealistic, third-generation CEO. About half of Dr. Bronner’s profits go towards activism. “If we are not maxed out and pushing our organization to the limit,” he asked me at the time, “then what are we doing?”

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Is 2014 the "Tipping Point" for the GMO Labeling Movement?

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Quote of the Day #2: Pick an Issue, Any Issue

Mother Jones

From self-declared visionary Newt Gingrich, asked what the Republican agenda should be for this year’s campaign:

I don’t actually care what it is, for the next seven weeks, as long as it exists.

Come on, folks! Just pick anything that sounds good and rally around it. Does Newt have to do all your thinking for you?

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Quote of the Day #2: Pick an Issue, Any Issue

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Next Generation Fuel on the Rise

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Next Generation Fuel on the Rise

Posted 9 September 2014 in

National

Big things are happening in Iowa. For the second week in a row, a new cellulosic ethanol facility is coming online — one of four new cellulosic ethanol facilities opening in the U.S. before the end of the year.

Located in Galva, Iowa, Quad County Corn Processors’ Adding Cellulosic Ethanol (ACE) project is turning corn kernel fiber into low-emission renewable fuel. This first-of-its-kind facility is the result of a $9 million investment and is expected to produce 3.75 million gallons per year of cellulosic ethanol from a feedstock already onsite.

Cellulosic ethanol is a low-emission, sustainable biofuel produced from agricultural waste. Blending that ethanol into our fuel will help to reduce our dependence on foreign oil — and make our air cleaner.

Learn about the ACE project and the other new cellulosic ethanol plants in our infographic above.

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Next Generation Fuel on the Rise

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Mitch McConnell Doesn’t Get to Decide if Republicans Will Threaten Another Government Shutdown

Mother Jones

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Are congressional Republicans threatening once again to shut down the government this year unless they get their way on a bunch of pet demands? Over at TNR, Danny Vinik doesn’t think so: “There is no excuse for the news media to inflate the quotes of Republican politicians to make it seem that they are threatening to shut down the government again,” he says. But Brian Beutler thinks Vinik is being too literal. It’s true that no one is explicitly using the word shutdown, but no one ever does. Still, he says, “the threat is clear.”

I’m with Beutler, but not because of any particular parsing of recent Republican threats. It’s because of this:

The truth is practically irrelevant to the question of whether recent saber rattling presages a government shutdown fight. Just as it doesn’t really matter whether Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell actually has a government shutdown in mind when he promises to strong-arm Obama next year, or whether he intends to cave.

In either case he’s threatening to use the appropriations process as leverage to extract concessions. That’s a government shutdown fight. And no matter how he plays it, he will unleash forces he and other GOP leaders have proven incapable of restraining. They can’t control the plot.

Yep. It’s just not clear that McConnell has any real leverage over Ted Cruz or that John Boehner has any leverage over Michele Bachmann. Once they implicitly endorse the rider game, they cede control to the wingnuts. And the wingnuts want to shut down the government. Fasten your seatbelts.

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Mitch McConnell Doesn’t Get to Decide if Republicans Will Threaten Another Government Shutdown

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