Author Archives: AllanThurston

Sorry Donald, Most Republicans Don’t Actually Care That Much About Illegal Immigration

by AllanThurston Posted on July 27, 2015

Mother Jones

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Greg Sargent has an item today noting that by a 63-34 percent margin in a new CNN poll, Republicans believe the main focus of immigration policy should be stopping the flow of immigration and deporting the ones who are already here. No big surprise there. But when I clicked over to the poll itself I found a couple of things related to immigration that were kind of interesting.

First, CNN asked “Just your best guess, do you think the number of immigrants coming to the United States illegally has increased or decreased in the last few years?” Among Republicans, 83 percent thought it had increased. Granted, asking about the “last few years” is a little ambiguous, but if you assume at a minimum that it means less than a decade, then 83 percent of Republicans are woefully misinformed. As you can see from the Pew data on the right, the illegal immigrant population dropped considerably in 2008 and 2009 and has been basically flat ever since.

(By the way, among Democrats 61 percent think immigration has increased. That’s a little better, but still not exactly a proud moment in voter awareness. It isn’t just Fox News that’s keeping us all misinformed.)

The second interesting question was one that asked about which issues were most important. This kind of thing always has to be taken with a grain of salt, but even so it’s a little surprising how little Republicans actually care about immigration. For all the attention it’s gotten from Donald Trump, only 9 percent said it was their most important issue, the lowest showing of any of the issues CNN asked about. The economy and terrorism/foreign policy were far and away the biggest worries among Republicans. Also surprisingly, health care didn’t register very high either. The tea party may be yelling endlessly about the need to repeal the worst law since the Fugitive Slave Act, but among all Republicans, only a few rate it as a critical issue.

So….immigration and Obamacare probably aren’t going to be gigantic issues this year among Republicans—or in the general election. As usual, the economy will be #1, and #2 will probably be terrorism and foreign policy in general.

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Sorry Donald, Most Republicans Don’t Actually Care That Much About Illegal Immigration

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GOP Obstruction Is Making It Harder To Catch Rapists—Mitch McConnell Would Rather Not Talk About It

by AllanThurston Posted on August 15, 2014

Mother Jones

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Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will not say if he will stop blocking a major spending bill in the Senate that contains funding to help identify and prosecute rapists—or whether he would support a separate bill to break the log jam.

As I reported last week, since June, Senate Republicans have held up a $180 billion appropriations bill that would fund several federal agencies, including the Department of Commerce, the Department of Agriculture, and the Department of Justice. Part of the funding allotted for the DoJ is supposed to go toward a $41 million grant to help states and localities go after rapists by funding jurisdictions to process backlogs of rape kits, the samples of DNA evidence that are taken after a sexual assault and used to identify assailants. There are over 100,000 untested kits waiting to be processed at crime labs and police departments around the country, partly because states and localities don’t have enough money to test them. The kits can go untested for decades, allowing countless rapists off the hook.

The sweeping spending bill has hit a wall in the Senate because McConnell and other Senate Republicans want Dems to let them add several unrelated amendments to the legislation. The amendment McConnell introduced would make it harder for the EPA to enact new rules on coal-fired power plants. Democrats have complained that GOPers are abusing the amendments process to hold up a bill they don’t like. “Regardless of the outcome of the amendment votes…Republicans have indicated that they are not willing to support the underlying bill,” a Senate staffer told me last week.

On Tuesday, the Louisville, Ky. Courier-Journal asked McConnell if he would withdraw his amendment, which would indicate that he and fellow Republicans would be willing to vote for the underlying bill, including the $41 million in funding to process rape kit backlogs. McConnell dodged the question. His office did not respond when Mother Jones asked the same question this week.

Lawmakers may be able to add the rape kit funding into an temporary spending measure in October. However, neither McConnell’s office nor Republicans on the House and Senate appropriations committees will say whether they would support doing so.

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GOP Obstruction Is Making It Harder To Catch Rapists—Mitch McConnell Would Rather Not Talk About It

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Everyone Is Now Officially Banned From Whining About Presidential Vacations. Forever.

by AllanThurston Posted on August 14, 2014

Mother Jones

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Yes, yes, yes: sign me up as a charter member of the movement to STFU about presidential vacations. Both sides do it. Bush got hit with criticism from Democrats. Obama gets it from Republicans. Clinton got it. Reagan got it. Fine. We’re all guilty. Now let’s just stop.

No more golf mockery. No more charts showing how many days Bush took off compared to Obama. No more whining about how this week—yes, this very week!—is the worst week ever in history for a vacation because the world is in crisis. You know why? Because there’s always a crisis somewhere in the world.

So that’s it. Don’t argue about it. Just stop. Right now. It is officially the stupidest thing in the world.

Originally posted here: 

Everyone Is Now Officially Banned From Whining About Presidential Vacations. Forever.

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Dot Earth Blog: Alternatives to Shopping ‘Til You’re Dropping

by AllanThurston Posted on December 26, 2013

green4us

How to Raise the Perfect Dog – Cesar Millan & Melissa Jo Peltier

From the bestselling author and star of National Geographic Channel’s Dog Whisperer , the only resource you’ll need for raising a happy, healthy dog. For the millions of people every year who consider bringing a puppy into their lives–as well as those who have already brought a dog home–Cesar Millan, the preeminent dog behavior expert, says, “Yes, […]

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Warhammer 40,000: Kill Team (Interactive Edition) – Games Workshop

Not all battles in the 41st Millennium are massed engagements between lumbering armies and towering war machines. In the shadows of these epic conflicts, squads of elite soldiers clash – their missions no less vital, their foes no less deadly. Designated as Kill Teams by the Imperium, or by a myriad of different names for their alien and daemonic counterpart […]

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Dataslate: Cypher – Lord of the Fallen (Interactive Edition) – Games Workshop

The individual known as Cypher is one of the greatest mysteries in the war-torn future. His motives and methods are inscrutable. The few who even know of his existence are unsure if he Mankind’s bitterest enemy, or a lost pilgrim seeking atonement. Cypher is a being wrapped in shadow, an entity whose every move is cloaked in mystery. The Dark Angels have sou […]

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Dataslate: Adeptus Astartes Storm Wing (Interactive Edition) – Games Workshop

Like a bolt out of war-torn skies comes the Storm Wing – salvation for the Emperor’s forces, and a bane to their foes. The Adeptus Astartes Storm Wing gives Warhammer 40,000 players background information and rules that allow them to collect and field this deadly combination of fighter-craft. For the Adeptus Astartes to achieve their rapid strike styl […]

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Inside of a Dog – Alexandra Horowitz

The bestselling book that asks what dogs know and how they think, now in paperback. The answers will surprise and delight you as Alexandra Horowitz, a cognitive scientist, explains how dogs perceive their daily worlds, each other, and that other quirky animal, the human. Horowitz introduces the reader to dogs’ perceptual and cognitive abilities and then draw […]

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Cesar Millan’s Short Guide to a Happy Dog – Cesar Millan

After more than 9 seasons as TV’s Dog Whisperer, Cesar Millan has a new mission: to use his unique insights about dog psychology to create stronger, happier relationships between humans and their canine companions. Now in paperback, this inspirational and practical guide draws on thousands of training encounters around the world to presen […]

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Codex: Space Marines (Enhanced Edition) – Games Workshop

The Space Marines are the chosen warriors of the Emperor, and the greatest fighting force of the Imperium. Each Space Marine is a genetically enhanced super soldier, easily a match for a dozen lesser men, armed with some of the deadliest weapons in the galaxy and encased in formidable power armour. This codex explores the formations and Chapters of the Space […]

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Codex: Inquisition – Games Workshop

The Inquisition is the most powerful organisation within the Imperium. Bound by no Imperial law or authority, its agents – Inquisitors – operate in a highly secretive manner and answer only to themselves. Inquisitors use whatever means are necessary in order to safeguard the Imperium from heretics, mutants and aliens. It is not without good reason that Inqui […]

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Warhammer 40,000: Kill Team (eBook Edition) – Games Workshop

Not all battles in the 41st Millennium are massed engagements between lumbering armies and towering war machines. In the shadows of these epic conflicts, squads of elite soldiers clash – their missions no less vital, their foes no less deadly. Designated as Kill Teams by the Imperium, or by a myriad of different names for their alien and daemonic counterpart […]

iTunes Store
Dataslate: Cypher – Lord of the Fallen (eBook Edition) – Games Workshop

The individual known as Cypher is one of the greatest mysteries in the war-torn future. His motives and methods are inscrutable. The few who even know of his existence are unsure if he Mankind’s bitterest enemy, or a lost pilgrim seeking atonement. Cypher is a being wrapped in shadow, an entity whose every move is cloaked in mystery. The Dark Angels have sou […]

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Dot Earth Blog: Alternatives to Shopping ‘Til You’re Dropping

Posted in alo, Citadel, eco-friendly, FF, G & F, GE, LAI, LG, Monterey, ONA, Pines, PUR, solar, solar power, Uncategorized, wind power | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Dot Earth Blog: Alternatives to Shopping ‘Til You’re Dropping

Nuclear Talks With Iran Not Going Very Well

by AllanThurston Posted on December 18, 2013

Mother Jones

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Paul Richter of the LA Times reports that talks with Iran aren’t going very well:

Three weeks after President Obama hailed a landmark deal to suspend most of Iran’s nuclear program for the next six months, the mood among U.S. officials about the next round of negotiations has shifted from elated to somber, even gloomy.

….Problems already have emerged. Technical talks in Vienna aimed at implementing the initial deal stopped Thursday when Iranian negotiators unexpectedly flew back to Tehran, reportedly in response to the Obama administration’s decision to expand its blacklist of foreign companies and individuals who have done business with Iran in violation of sanctions.

….Even before Thursday’s interruption, experts had struggled to determine how to sequence the complex next steps involved: neutralizing a stockpile of medium-enriched uranium and freezing most other enrichment operations in exchange for granting Iran access, in installments, to $4.2 billion of its own funds held in banks overseas and easing sanctions on petrochemical and auto exports.

None of this surprises me. Even with the incentive of shucking off the sanctions that have crippled their economy, the price the Western allies is asking might just be too high for Iran to accept. In the end, ensuring that Iran can’t build a bomb requires dismantling nearly all of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and putting in place extremely intrusive monitoring of what’s left. There are a hundred different ways this could run aground on both sides.

Hopefully, this is just the normal trough in negotiations after the initial bloom of goodwill from getting talks started. After all, both sides have good reason to want to make a deal. But if I had to guess, I’d put the odds of success at 50 percent or less.

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Nuclear Talks With Iran Not Going Very Well

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WATCH: Why Is Arctic Sea Ice Disappearing?

by AllanThurston Posted on September 27, 2013

Mother Jones

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The Arctic is warming nearly three times faster than the rest of the planet, which means ice in the Arctic Circle could be nearly gone in summertime before mid-century. Josefino Comiso, a NASA earth scientist and an author of the report’s chapter on the “cryosphere” (that is, the Earth’s frozen parts) explains why only the hardiest ice will likely survive year-round.

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WATCH: Why Is Arctic Sea Ice Disappearing?

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Obamacare Subsidies Act Like an Effective Marginal Tax of About 15 Percent as Your Income Goes Up

by AllanThurston Posted on September 26, 2013

Mother Jones

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Atrios:

Something I’m looking for and not finding is an estimate of the effective marginal tax rates on people in the exchanges who are eligible for subsidies. A problem with means-testing programs is that as you earn more income, your benefits go away, meaning that effectively you’re paying a pretty high tax on each additional dollar earned. Your company giveth, and Uncle Sam taketh away.

That got me curious. The subsidies are calculated so that you never have to pay more than a certain percentage of your income in health premiums. That percentage rises with income according to a formula, so it’s pretty easy to figure out the subsidy at different income levels and then calculate the effective marginal tax rate caused by the fact that the subsidy level goes down.

I used the Kaiser subsidy calculator to get the subsidy for a family of three at various income levels. (The exact subsidy level varies depending on family size, but this provides a pretty good estimate for an average family.) As you can see, as you gain more income, you get less subsidy, which produces an effective marginal tax rate of 12-16 percent at most income levels. When your income gets high enough, the subsidies are so low that there isn’t much left to lose, so the effective marginal rate goes down. At 400 percent of the poverty level, the subsidies decline to zero.

The moral of this story, of course, is that you should avoid means testing if you can, since it provides a negative incentive to earn more money. Unfortunately, means testing is often the only practical way of providing benefits to the poor, so we put up with it even though everyone agrees it’s suboptimal. However, in the case of health care we could solve this problem easily by simply adopting a national health care plan that provided coverage for everyone at no charge. Since it’s a flat benefit, it wouldn’t distort work incentives. Taxes would have to go up to pay for this, of course, but those taxes would almost certainly produce less distortion at low income levels than Obamacare does.

Someday we might have a sensible system like that. Someday.

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Obamacare Subsidies Act Like an Effective Marginal Tax of About 15 Percent as Your Income Goes Up

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