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Donald Trump Is Already Campaigning For 2020

Mother Jones

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I mentioned in passing yesterday that Donald Trump’s tweets aren’t meant for the press or for Congress or for people like you and me. They’re meant for his fans. Today brings a pretty good example of this:

This is obviously laughable. Even if you take Trump at face value, he’s been responsible for no more than a tiny handful of jobs, and he hasn’t negotiated a lower price on anything yet, let alone “massive” cost reductions on military purchases. So why bother tweeting something that makes him look ridiculous?

Because he needs his supporters to continue thinking he’s a miracle worker. To them, this tweet is a simple progress report. Even if anyone bothers fact checking it, they’ll never see it. All they see is Trump keeping them apprised of the tremendous progress he’s making in draining the swamp and bending Washington to his will.

But surely he can’t keep this up for multiple years, can he? At some point, after all, even people who don’t pay much attention to the news will eventually realize there’s a disconnect between reality and Trump’s big talk. Then they’ll start to see Trump for the empty hustler he is. Right?

This is the $64,000 question. I wish I knew the answer. For now, I’ll just say that I’m not sure. A lot of it depends on events, of course, and a lot of it depends on how successful Trump is at blaming other people for everything that goes wrong. Depending on circumstances, it’s possible that the true believers will stay on board forever, even if he shoots someone on Fifth Avenue.

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Donald Trump Is Already Campaigning For 2020

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Home Buyers Are Paying a $600 Trump Tax on New Mortgages

Mother Jones

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Matt Yglesias tweeted yesterday about mortgage interest rates going up after the election, and that got me curious about just how quickly they spiked upward after we all learned that Donald Trump would be our next president. The chart on the right shows the answer: pretty darn quickly.

On November 8, the average 30-year fixed mortgage was available at a rate of 3.53 percent. Within two days it had gone up 21 basis points, and within a week it had gone up 43 basis points. Adjustable mortgages spiked upward too, though not as dramatically, and both rates continued to drift upward until December 14. Then they spiked upward again thanks to the Fed’s decision to increase interest rates.

So what does this mean for your ordinary working-class joe who voted for Trump? Well, for a 30-year fixed mortgage on a $200,000 loan, the monthly payment has increased from about $900 to $950. That’s an extra $600 per year.

Generally speaking, this spike was due to the fact that everyone panicked after Trump won, causing treasury bond yields to jump 35 basis points in a week. More specifically, however, is it due to China selling US treasuries in greater quantities than usual? Maybe! But whatever the cause, if you waited until after the election to buy a house, you’re paying a pretty stiff Trump penalty.

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Home Buyers Are Paying a $600 Trump Tax on New Mortgages

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