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No Grand Bargain: Why Dems Think They Won’t Have to Budge on Sequester Demands

Mother Jones

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During the recent government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis, Republicans had grand ideas—defunding Obamacare, for example—that they eventually had to abandon when their approval ratings took a nasty turn. But they ended up selling their base on one minor victory, crowing that they had forced President Barack Obama to the bargaining table to hammer out big budget issues.

Now, as the budget conference they demanded holds its first public meeting Wednesday, Republicans and Democrats are disavowing prospects for any “grand bargain,” offering nothing more than hope that a limited deal to shut off sequestration, the automatic budget cuts agreed to during the 2011 debt ceiling negotiations, might be on the table. Democrats are hoisting the threat of further public-relations debacles to convince Republicans that reconfiguring sequestration is in their best interest.

The new budget conference committee, a panel of 22 senators and seven representatives, is a byproduct of the agreement to end the government shutdown and raise the debt ceiling. That continuing resolution kept the government funded through January 15 and created a bipartisan, bicameral budget conference that must present a proposed budget to Congress by December 13. The conference will meet publicly at the Capitol on Wednesday morning but intends to negotiate privately, unlike the 2011 super committee that was notable for grandstanding at public hearings and made little progress toward an actual agreement.

The move away from a grand bargain originated on the Republicans’ side. House Budget Committee chair Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.), who is spearheading the conference along with Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), his counterpart in the Senate, has set aside his lofty ambitions to privatize Social Security and turn Medicare into a voucher program, at least for the moment. “If we focused on doing some big grand bargain, like those prior efforts … then I don’t think we’ll be successful because we’ll focus on our differences,” Ryan said during an interview with Reuters last week. “Each party will demand that the other compromises a core principle and then we’ll get nothing done.” Senate Democrats share Ryan’s pessimism that the two sides can find a viable compromise on the major budgetary issues. “That is not going to happen this time,” Harry Reid said over the weekend. “There’s not going to be a grand bargain.”

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No Grand Bargain: Why Dems Think They Won’t Have to Budge on Sequester Demands

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The Real Lesson From The Flaming Tesla Video

Mother Jones

Yesterday afternoon, a Tesla Model S burst into flames on Washington State Route 167 outside Seattle. The auto blog Jalopnik quickly posted a video of the luxury electric car engulfed in a ball of fire and smoke. Tesla later noted that the fire hadn’t been spontaneous; the car had been hit by a metal object that damaged the battery pack. The car’s alert system detected a failure and told the driver to pull over, the driver wasn’t injured, and the fire never spread to the passenger compartment. Even so, at the close of the stock market yesterday, Tesla’s share price had fallen more than 6 percent (UPDATE: It dropped another 5 percent this morning).

The sell-off may have resulted from the video, from a ratings downgrade released the same day by an R.W. Baird stock analyst, or both. Either way, the experience shows how hard it can be for companies to stake their success on radical innovation. Behind investors’ (unfounded) hand-wringing over electrical fires or production hiccups is their unease over the basic fact that nobody has ever built anything like a Tesla before.

That Tesla has come this far—the value of its stock has increased six-fold since the Model S was named Motor Trend’s Car Of The Year—partly reflects the savvy of its co-founder and CEO Elon Musk. But it’s also a classic illustration of the value of federal subsidies, such as the $465 million loan that Tesla received from the U.S. Department of Energy in 2010. When you’re trying something really awesome and new, sometimes you need a little help from taxpayers. Just look up the early history of Google and Apple. Yet Musk, a self-described libertarian, has loudly criticized federal subsidies. I take a closer look at this sort of disconnect, which is pretty common in Silicon Valley circles, in my story in the September/October print issue, now online.

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The Real Lesson From The Flaming Tesla Video

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Ecuador’s Edward Snowden Problem

Mother Jones

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As of Monday afternoon (Eastern time), the whereabouts of on-the-run NSA leaker Edward Snowden remained unknown. But it seemed the onetime contractor might be headed to Ecuador. There’s little doubt that the country’s president, Rafael Correa, would relish the chance to welcome Snowden and irritate Washington. Correa has been a leading purveyor of anti-United States rhetoric in Latin America, reviving the down-with-gringos banner-waving once so popular in the region. But Correa’s embrace of Snowden—if it comes to be—could produce blowback for the heavy-handed Ecuadorean leader by focusing global attention on his own, far-from-laudable policies regarding transparency, press freedoms, and refugees.

Just two weeks ago, his party passed a law in the National Assembly that, according to Human Rights Watch, “undermines free speech.” HRW official José Miguel Vivanco notes, “This law is yet another effort by President Correa to go after the independent media. The provisions for censorship and criminal prosecutions of journalists are clear attempts to silence criticism.”

Here’s how HRW describes the law:

It prohibits so called “media lynching” which is defined as “the dissemination of concerted and reiterative information, either directly or by third parties, through media outlets, with the purpose of undermining the prestige” of a person or legal entity or “reducing their credibility.” The provision would allow the authorities to order the media outlet to issue a public apology and states that they are also subject to criminal and civil sanctions, imposed by the courts.

It requires media outlets to issue their own codes of conduct to “improve their internal practices and their communications work” based on a series of requirements such as to “respect people’s honor and reputation.” Although self-regulation of this nature is not in itself problematic, the law provides that any citizen or organization can report that a media outlet violated the requirements, and government authorities can issue a written warning, or impose sanctions.

It says that journalists must “assume the subsequent administrative consequences of disseminating content through the media that undermines constitutional rights, in particular the right to communication, and the public security of the State.” Journalists deemed to violate this responsibility could be subject to civil, criminal or other sanctions.

The law would essentially allow Correa’s government to criminalize journalism that inconveniences the president and his allies. HRW points out that human rights advocates generally oppose granting government the power to charge journalists with a crime for publishing derogatory information about public figures: “International bodies from the Inter-American, European, and United Nations human rights systems have long criticized the use of criminal charges to respond to media allegations made against public officials, as contrary to the interest of promoting vibrant public debate necessary in a democratic society.” But that’s what Correa’s party has sought to do. Vivanco puts it this way: “Giving the government the power to decide whether or not information is ‘truthful’ will open the door to unlawful censorship. This is an especially alarming provision in a country where the president has a track record of using his powers to target critics in the press.”

This is not Correa’s first stab at media intimidation. In July 2011, an Ecuadorean court sentenced a reporter for El Universo, a newspaper based in Guayaquil, and three members of the paper’s board to three years in prison for defamation because the paper criticized Correa. The reporter, Emilio Palacio, had written an opinion piece that referred to the president as a “dictator” for having considered pardoning people involved in a police rebellion that included an attack on a hospital. The criminal case was triggered by a defamation suit filed by Correa.

With the suit and the recent law, Correa has shown he’s no fan of a free media and a vibrant national debate—at least not when he and his actions might be the focus. In its most recent ranking of international press freedoms, Reporters Without Borders scored Ecuador toward the bottom: “Ecuador fell 15 places to 119th after a year of extreme tension between the government and leading privately-owned media.” In its annual report on Ecuador, Amnesty International notes that “there were concerns that laws dealing with the crime of insult were being used against journalists in violation of the right to freedom of expression and could deter other critics of government authorities from speaking out” and that “indigenous and community leaders faced spurious criminal charges aimed at restricting their freedom of assembly.” And HRW has also assailed Correa for not respecting the due process rights of asylum seekers. (Snowden’s standing as a persecuted refugee is far from certain.)

Correa might boost his anti-Yankee creed by sheltering Snowden and seek to portray himself as a protector of the persecuted. “Human rights will take precedence over any other interests or pressure that some might want to exert,” Ecuador Foreign Minister Ricardo Patiño said on Monday regarding the possibility Snowden would find asylum in Ecuador. But by bear-hugging Snowden, Correa would draw attention to his own history of opposing a robust press that dares to challenge the powers that be.

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Ecuador’s Edward Snowden Problem

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GOP Food Stamps Proposal Would Discriminate Against African-Americans

Mother Jones

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On Wednesday the Senate agriculture committee approved a GOP proposal that would amend the farm bill the Senate is considering to ban “convicted murderers, rapists, and pedophiles” from getting food stamps. On its surface, the idea sounds unobjectionable, but the measure would have “strongly racially discriminatory effects,” according to the non-partisan Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP).

The amendment, introduced by Sen. David Vitter (R-La.), and agreed to by unanimous consent in the committee, would bar anyone who has ever been convicted of certain violent crimes—even if they committed the crimes in their youth and have served their sentence—from ever getting food stamps (called SNAP benefits) ever again. CBPP president Robert Greenstein slammed the amendment in a statement Tuesday, calling it “stunning.” Because African Americans are incarcerated at a higher rate than other races, he says, “the amendment would have a skewed racial impact. Poor elderly African Americans convicted of a single crime decades ago by segregated Southern juries would be among those hit.” Under current law, there is only a lifetime ban on food stamps for convicted drug felons, and many states have opted out of that ban.

The measure wouldn’t just hurt ex-cons. Greenstein points out that “the amendment would mean lower SNAP benefits for their children and other family members.”

Plus the amendment could cause higher rates of recidivism. “Ex-offenders often have difficulty finding jobs that pay decent wages,” Greenstein says. “The amendment could pose dilemmas for ex-offenders who are trying to go straight but can neither find jobs nor, as a result of the amendment, obtain enough food to feed their children and families.”

The House of Representatives has also voted to cut food stamp funding from the farm bill; their plan would throw some 2 million people off the program.

There’s still time to rethink the senators’ ill-conceived plan, though, Greenstein says. “The farm bill is still on the floor, and the amendment can still be modified,” he says. “Senators should gather the courage to step up to the plate and address this matter.”

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GOP Food Stamps Proposal Would Discriminate Against African-Americans

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Earth Friendly Exercise Tips

Christine VanderWal

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Earth Friendly Exercise Tips

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Chart of the Day: Unfortunately, GDP Growth is Right on Target

Mother Jones

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Analysts were hoping that GDP would grow about 3.5 percent last quarter. Instead, it grew 2.5 percent. Should we be surprised? Take a look at the chart below and decide for yourself.

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Chart of the Day: Unfortunately, GDP Growth is Right on Target

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Raw Data: The Deficit is Shri-i-i-i-nking

Mother Jones

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Over at Calculated Risk, Bill McBride quotes a Goldman Sachs analyst about the rapidly shrinking federal deficit—down from 10.1 percent to 5.7 percent last year, and then down again to 4.5 percent following the fiscal cliff deal—and notes that this hasn’t gotten much attention:

It shocks people when I tell them the deficit as a percent of GDP is already close to being cut in half (this doesn’t seem to ever make headlines). As Hatzius notes, the deficit is currently running under half the peak of the fiscal 2009 budget and will probably decline further over the next few years with no additional policy changes.

It’s true that this doesn’t get much attention. So how about a simple chart instead? This isn’t from a Goldman Sachs report that only a select few have access to, it’s from the most recent CBO budget outlook. Anyone who cares just needs to click the link to see it. Pass this along to your friends when they ask you about the monstrous federal deficit and how we’re bankrupting our children.

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Raw Data: The Deficit is Shri-i-i-i-nking

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North Carolina joins rush to protect animal abusers

North Carolina joins rush to protect animal abusers

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A bill in North Carolina would make it harder to stop animal abuses — like those documented at a Butterball turkey farm.

Ronnie Jacobs last week became the fifth Butterball employee to plead guilty to cruelty-to-animals charges after workers at a North Carolina factory farm were filmed kicking and beating turkeys in 2011. The animal rights activists who filmed the abuse provided evidence that triggered a law enforcement raid and led to six people being charged.

From a 2012 ABC story:

Mercy for Animals, the animal rights group that shot the undercover video, said there had been no insider information about abuse at the facility before the tape was made. “Unfortunately, every time we send an investigator they emerge with shocking evidence of animal abuse,” said MFA executive director Nathan Runkle.

Are these activists being showered with accolades and gratitude for doing the work that law-enforcement agencies apparently don’t care to do? Hell no! The North Carolina legislature is trying to criminalize their activities.

Under the NC Commerce Protection Act [PDF], introduced last week, anybody who fails to disclose their links to animal welfare groups when applying to work for an agricultural company in order to film abuses could be charged with a misdemeanor on their first offense, and with a felony on their second. If they film any abuses on the job and fail to hand over the unedited footage to law enforcement within 24 hours, they could be found guilty of yet another crime.

The legislation is part of an “ag-gag” trend sweeping America. These bills are criminalizing the act of exposing animal cruelty and, in the process, protecting those who are cruel to animals. From The New York Times:

On one covert video, farm workers illegally burn the ankles of Tennessee walking horses with chemicals. Another captures workers in Wyoming punching and kicking pigs and flinging piglets into the air. And at one of the country’s largest egg suppliers, a video shows hens caged alongside rotting bird corpses, while workers burn and snap off the beaks of young chicks.

Each video — all shot in the last two years by undercover animal rights activists — drew a swift response: Federal prosecutors in Tennessee charged the horse trainer and other workers, who have pleaded guilty, with violating the Horse Protection Act. Local authorities in Wyoming charged nine farm employees with cruelty to animals. And the egg supplier, which operates in Iowa and other states, lost one of its biggest customers, McDonald’s, which said the video played a part in its decision.

But a dozen or so state legislatures have had a different reaction: They proposed or enacted bills that would make it illegal to covertly videotape livestock farms, or apply for a job at one without disclosing ties to animal rights groups. They have also drafted measures to require such videos to be given to the authorities almost immediately, which activists say would thwart any meaningful undercover investigation of large factory farms.

“We would not have been able to see the government corruption and the illegal activity that is currently being prosecuted if there had been an ag-gag bill in North Carolina,” said Vandhana Bala, general counsel for Mercy for Animals.

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Hating on the Deficit

Mother Jones

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Over at Wonkblog, Dylan Matthews has a long post titled “Why do people hate deficits?” It’s a good summary that runs through all the various reasons people give for thinking that deficits are bad.

But it doesn’t actually answer the question, at least not as I take it. Dylan’s list provides us with two things: (a) technical reasons that some economists dislike big, persistent deficits, and (b) talking points used by politicians who are railing against the deficit and need to toss out some plausible sounding arguments. What we’d really like to know is why so many ordinary people dislike deficits. Here are a few possibilities:

They listen to politicians and pundits railing against the deficit and simply assume that deficits must therefore be bad. After all, everyone says they are.
They don’t really care about deficits, they just hate welfare spending. Opposing the deficit is a convenient proxy.
They think that countries are like households, and getting in debt inevitably means an endless, grinding stuggle to pay the bills.
Liberals have done an abysmal job of explaining why deficits are good during periods of high unemployment, so ordinary citizens have no reason to think deficits are anything other than bad.

I imagine all of these things play a role, but I’d place a lot of weight on the last one. Sure, some of the reasons to dislike deficits are dumb and some are downright dishonest. But that’s just the nature of political discourse. A movement that can’t fight back against slippery arguments had better steel itself to lose lots of battles.

Like it or not, the truth is that deficit hawkery is a pretty obvious default position to have unless someone gives you a really compelling reason to believe otherwise. So if we’re unhappy that the public is too hawkish about the deficit, we have only ourselves to blame.

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Hating on the Deficit

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CHART: How Climate Change and Your Wine Habit Threaten Endangered Pandas

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Global warming is shifting wine country straight onto sensitive habitats. Conservation International One group that’s been keeping a close eye on climate change is wine growers. Since a 2006 study predicted global warming could fry over 80 percent of the US’s wine grapes, vinters have been planning new heat-resistant varietals, adopting big-data-driven water saving techniques, and mapping out what could become the new Napa Valleys of a warming world. That last trend is the focus of a new study out today that examines how shifting wine cultivation geography could have implications for endangered species. Lee Hannah, an ecologist at Conservational International, used a suite of global climate models to plot where ideal wine conditions will migrate to as temperatures warm and precipitation patterns fluctuate. “In a lot of these places, what’s there now is good wildlife habitat,” Hannah said. Chart by Tim McDonnell Up to 73 percent of the area currently suitable for wine cultivation could be lost by 2050, according to the study, which was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. While temperate places like inland California and Mediterranean Europe lose good wine country, other, cooler or higher elevation areas, like the Northwest US and mountainous parts of China, are likely to open up for cultivation. Unfortunately, Hannah and his colleagues found, some of those areas are already home to animals like grizzly bears and pandas, respectively, that already have enough conservation issues on hand without having to negotiate a sprawling new vineyard in the middle of their migration path. The problem goes the other direction, too: Stick a winery in the middle of a moose’s stomping grounds, Hannah said, and he’d “love to go in and eat wine grapes.” By 2015, global wine consumption is expected to rise by nearly two billion bottles, an increase of 4.5 percent since 2006, with China’s growing middle class boosting the country into the top five world wine markets. And while China now imports most of its wine from France, Australia, and the US, Hannah predicts the Chinese could be sipping more home-grown wine within a few decades. But, he said, “turns out the best place to produce wine in China is exactly the mountains that harbor pandas.” Hannah’s study also examined the impact of decreasing rainfall on an industry that, in many places, already exacerbates water shortages. In California, for example, total wine-suitable area could decrease by as much as 70 percent in the next four decades—but declining precipitation could still leave more than 30 percent of that smaller area under water stress. Conflict between wine and wildlife is already being addressed by groups like the World Wildlife Fund’s Biodiversity and Wine Initiative, which pairs conservationists with wine growers in South Africa’s ecologically rich Cape Floral Region. But Hannah said the wine industry globally will need to pay more attention to the issue in the future, and work together to ensure the world’s appetite for reds and whites doesn’t drive any critters to extinction. “This is not under the control of any one vineyard,” Hannah said. “This is the next natural step for the industry, and it takes collaboration to consider how they might protect wildlife.”

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CHART: How Climate Change and Your Wine Habit Threaten Endangered Pandas

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CHART: How Climate Change and Your Wine Habit Threaten Endangered Pandas

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