Category Archives: Vintage

How Much It Costs to Raise a Kid, in 4 Charts

Mother Jones

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A middle-income family with a child born in 2013 can expect to spend about a quarter of a million dollars in child-rearing expenses over the next 18 years, according to a new report from the USDA.

Costs such as housing, food, transportation, clothing, health care, child care, and education will amount to an expected $304,340 ($245,340 in 2013 dollars) for middle-income families, a 1.8 percent increase from last year’s report. For each income bracket, costs will increase as the child ages:

Although households with incomes in the lowest third will spend less than half as much on child-related costs as higher income families, their spending will amount to a far greater percent of total income.

Housing is the highest child-rearing expenditure, amounting to 30 percent of expenses for middle-income, husband-wife families with two children. Raising a child is costliest in the urban Northeast and least expensive in rural areas.

USDA

The report notes that child-rearing costs have grown 24 percent since 1960, when a middle-income family could have expected to spend $25,230 ($198,560 in 2013 dollars). The USDA has also released an interactive calculator to help families estimate child-rearing costs based on type of household, number of children, location, and income.

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How Much It Costs to Raise a Kid, in 4 Charts

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Obama May Soon Send This Reporter to Jail. Here Are the Embarrassing Secrets He Exposed.

Mother Jones

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The Obama administration has fought a years-long court battle to force longtime New York Times national security correspondent James Risen to reveal the source for a story in his 2006 book State of War: The Secret History of the CIA and the Bush Administration. Risen may soon serve jail time for refusing to out his source. The fight has drawn attention to Obama’s less-than-stellar track record on press freedom—in a recent interview, Risen called the president “the greatest enemy to press freedom in a generation.” But lost in the ruckus are the details of what Risen revealed. Here’s what has the government so upset.

In State of War, Risen revealed a secret CIA operation, code-named Merlin, that was intended to undermine the Iranian nuclear program. The plan—originally approved by president Bill Clinton, but later embraced by George W. Bush—was to pass flawed plans for a trigger system for a nuclear weapon to Iran in the hopes of derailing the country’s nuclear program. “It was one of the greatest engineering secrets in the world,” Risen wrote in State of War, “providing the solution to one of a handful of problems that separated nuclear powers such as the United States and Russia from the rogue countries like Iran that were desperate to join the nuclear club but had so far fallen short.”

The flaws in the trigger system were supposed to be so well hidden that the blueprints would lead Iranian scientists down the wrong path for years. But Merlin’s frontman, a Russian nuclear scientist and defector then on the CIA’s payroll, spotted the flaws almost immediately. On the day of the handoff in Vienna in winter 2000, the Russian, not wanting to burn a bridge with the Iranians, included an apologetic note with his delivery, explaining that the design had some problems. Shortly after receiving the plans, one member of the Iranian mission changed his travel plans and flew back to Tehran, presumably with the blueprints—and the note—in hand. Merlin did not wreck the Iranian nuclear program—in fact, Risen wrote, the operation could have accelerated it.

In a sworn affidavit filed in 2011, and in a recently rejected appeal to the US Supreme Court, Risen has argued that his reporting served the public good. Published at a time when military action in Iran seemed possible, State of Fear revealed how much of the effort to gather information on Iran’s nuclear capability was not just shoddy but dangerous—even, in the case of Operation Merlin, helping Iran get closer to building a nuclear weapon.

The Bush administration did not see it that way. In 2008, Bush’s Justice Department subpoenaed Risen, demanding that he reveal his source—or face jail time for contempt of court. After taking office in 2009, the Obama administration renewed the Bush-era subpoena and continued to try to identify and prosecute Risen’s source. Justice Department staff believe they know who the source was—an ex-CIA operations officer named Jeffrey Sterling, who was previously an on-the-record source for Risen—but they want Risen to confirm their hunch and fill in a few details. In legal filings, Justice Department lawyers have called Risen a witness to “serious crimes that implicate the national security of the United States” and argued that “there are few scenarios where the United States’ interests in securing information is more profound and compelling than in a criminal prosecution like this one.”

If Risen is called to court to testify but fails to show up or refuses to talk, he’s likely to become the first reporter since Judith Miller in 2005 to be sentenced to jail time for refusing to divulge a source.

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Obama May Soon Send This Reporter to Jail. Here Are the Embarrassing Secrets He Exposed.

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Here’s What We Saw on the Ferguson Livestreams Last Night

Mother Jones

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The situation in Ferguson continued to deteriorate Monday night. The curfew imposed by Gov. Jay Nixon was lifted Monday as he called in the National Guard to help police the area. We kept tabs on the livestreams coming from Moustafa Hussein at Argus Radio (embedded below) and Tim Pool at Vice News (rewatch the feed here). See below for more updates as events unfolded.

Updates:

1:06 a.m. CDT, Argus: Hussein and other media are gathered in the designated press area outside the protest area, waiting for updates. We’re signing off for the night, but check back in the morning for more updates.

12:45 a.m. CDT, Argus: Hussein and his colleague are turned away at another entry point to the protest area. There appears to be a lot of confusion over where journalists and protestors can and can’t go. As the Washington Post’s Wesley Lowery tweeted earlier:

12:15 a.m. CDT, Argus: “Something is happening in the neighborhood and they’re keeping media completely away from it,” Hussein says. “Every time we get to the street that officers told us to go to, we’re being told to go to another area.”

11:53 p.m. CDT, Vice: Vice’s Tim Pool trying to get into press area but can’t find his credential. Officer: “Credentials.” Pool: “I lost it when I was getting shot at.” Officer: “Well you’re not getting through.” (Officer rips off “PRESS” decal on Pool’s vest) “This doesn’t mean shit.”

11:52 p.m. CDT, Argus: Police officers appear to arrest several protesters. One officer tells the Argus reporter that all media needs to go up 2.5 miles back to the press area near the Target store, apologizing for the inconvenience. “We don’t get told much,” the officer says. Meanwhile:

11:45 p.m. CDT, Argus: Police repeatedly tell protesters: “Everyone on the Ferguson-Market parking lot needs to leave immediately or you will be subject to arrest, with the exception of credentialed media. Do it now. Or you will be subject to arrest.” Moments later, a line of police officers proceeds down the street, holding up their weapons:

11:41 p.m. CDT, Vice: Tim Pool, Vice News reporter, to officer: “Are there live shots?” Officer: “Yes. Bad guys shot. We didn’t shoot.”

11:30 p.m. CDT, Argus: Police ask media to shut off the lights on their cameras.

11 p.m. CDT, Vice: Police begin deploying smoke, tear gas, and flash bang grenades. Vice reporter Tim Pool, who is filming the feed, says he was hit in the leg by a rubber bullet.

10:40 CDT, Argus: Police rush in and grab two protesters, one a woman who can be heard saying she is trying to get home.

10:20 CDT, Argus: Protest leaders are able to calm an increasingly tense situation by moving media and protesters out of the street and onto the sidewalk after police give indications they might move on the crowd.

10pm CDT, Argus: Antonio French, a local alderman, can be seen trying to calm down several aggressive protesters, and keeping media from getting too close to police. The police have also deployed, on and off, a noise device to try and disperse the crowd. Read our interview with French here.

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Here’s What We Saw on the Ferguson Livestreams Last Night

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Senator Jim Jeffords Died Today. Watch the Moving Speech He Gave Defecting From the GOP.

Mother Jones

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Former Senator James Jeffords, who represented Vermont in Washington for 32 years, died Monday at the age of 80. He made history when, five months after George W. Bush was inaugurated with a deadlocked Senate in 2001, he left the GOP to become an independent and caucus with the Democrats, thereby handing Dems control of the upper chamber. He did it because “more and more” he found he could not “support the president’s agenda.” The GOP was no longer the party he grew up in. “Given the changing nature of the national party, it has become a struggle for our leaders to deal with me and for me to deal with them.”

This was before the tea party, before Guantanamo, before Abu Ghraib, before so much of what we now think of when we think of Republican extremism.

Here is the speech he gave announcing his defection, on May 24, 2001. It’s a reminder that the GOP didn’t just up and start losing its marbles after Obama’s election. It had been dropping them one by one for years.

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Senator Jim Jeffords Died Today. Watch the Moving Speech He Gave Defecting From the GOP.

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What Do We Know So Far From Mike Brown’s Autopsies?

Mother Jones

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Normally, it takes weeks to get the results of an autopsy. But today, St. Louis County medical examiner Mary Case announced that Michael Brown, the unarmed teenager who was killed by a policeman last weekend in Ferguson, Missouri, was shot in the head and chest multiple times. Here’s the information we know about Michael Brown’s death, and a little background on why autopsies usually take so much longer.

What have the autopsies found so far?

Three separate autopsies are in various stages of completion. The St. Louis County medical examiner’s office announced on Monday that Brown was killed by multiple bullets to the chest and head. The office has not yet released information about the number or location of the bullets or their toxicology report. According to a confidential source reporting to the Washington Post, Brown’s toxicology test found that he tested positive for marijuana.

The preliminary results of an independent autopsy arranged by the Brown family and performed on Sunday by former New York City medical examiner Michael Baden found that Brown was shot six times: four times in his right arm, and twice in the head. One of the bullets entered the top of Brown’s skull, indicating that his head was tilted forward when the bullet struck him and caused a fatal injury. According to Benjamin Crump, the attorney representing the Browns, the family wanted “an autopsy done by somebody who is objective and who does not have a relationship with the Ferguson police.”

Attorney General announced on Sunday that the Justice Department would conduct a third autopsy, because of “the extraordinary circumstances involved in this case and at the request of the Brown family.” A department representative said the autopsy would take place “as soon as possible.”

Why does it usually take so long to get autopsy results?

An autopsy itself usually doesn’t take too long, but often, medical examiners will wait to release the results until toxicology tests, which analyze the presence of drugs, are also complete. Toxicology tests usually take several weeks, in part due to the chemistry involved and in part because there’s often a backlog of tests. Coupling the release of the toxicology and autopsy results is standard practice because it gives a more complete picture of what may have happened during the shooting, says Judy Melinek, a forensic pathologist and the author of Working Stiff: The Making of a Medical Examiner. Determining whether or not a person was under the influence of drugs “may help interpret a person’s behavior and reaction time,” she says.

What do toxicology tests entail?

A basic screening often involves using immunoassays to test blood and urine (from inside the body) for drugs, including alcohol, marijuana, and opiates. If a test comes back positive, then a lab will run more complex tests, like mass spectrometry, to determine the exact concentration of the drug. Melinek says that “negative results come back faster,” and “the more drugs found in a person’s system, the longer it takes because each has to be verified and quantitated.” If Brown only tested positive for marijuana, the tests would only take a few days.

Was Brown’s case slowed down by an autopsy backlog?

Autopsy backlogs do exist—last year in Massachusetts, for example, there were nearly 1,000 unfinished death certificates due to lack of qualified pathologists and state funding for toxicology testing. According to Suzanne Picayune, a representative of the St. Louis County medical examiner’s office, Brown’s case was expedited through the system, as often happens for cases involving officers.

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What Do We Know So Far From Mike Brown’s Autopsies?

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Medicare Advantage Might Not Be a Boondoggle Anymore

Mother Jones

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I’ve written periodically in this space about the problems with Medicare Advantage. In a nutshell, it costs a lot more but provides very little in the way of additional services. It’s really not much of a poster child for the benefits of program choice.

But wait! Apparently a big part of the problem with MA was the fact that people were allowed to switch in and out of their plans on a monthly basis. If they got sick, they could quickly switch into MA if that was a better deal for them. This obviously raised the cost of MA as sick people switched in to avoid the copays and other limitations of traditional Medicare.

However, that changed in the mid-2000s, when beneficiaries were required to choose a plan and stick with it for a full year. Austin Frakt provides the details of a new study:

By 2006-2007, health differences between beneficiaries in Medicare Advantage and those in traditional Medicare had narrowed….Also, in contrast to studies in the 1990s, more recent work finds that Medicare Advantage is superior to traditional Medicare on a variety of quality measures. For example, according to a paper in Health Affairs by John Ayanian and colleagues, women enrolled in a Medicare Advantage H.M.O. are more likely to receive mammography screenings; those with diabetes are more likely to receive blood sugar testing and retinal exams; and those with diabetes or cardiovascular disease are more likely to receive cholesterol testing.

That Health Affairs paper also found that H.M.O. enrollees are more likely to receive flu and pneumonia vaccinations and about as likely to rate their personal doctor and specialists highly.

So now things are a little murkier. MA still costs more than traditional Medicare, but only by 5-6 percent. And recent evidence suggests that MA beneficiaries might be getting enough additional benefit to justify that much extra money. It’s still not clear that MA is worthwhile, but it appears now to be at least worth further study.

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Medicare Advantage Might Not Be a Boondoggle Anymore

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Most Songs are Three Minutes Long Because That’s How Most of Us Like Them

Mother Jones

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Kelsey McKinney asks today why popular songs are almost all 3-5 minutes long. The historical basis for this is obvious: 45 rpm singles hold about three minutes of music, so modern pop music was born in an era when technology limited songs to about three minutes or so. But what about more recently?

It makes sense to assume that since the basis of the three-minute song was the 78 and then 45 rpm single, then songs would become longer as technology evolved….But the length of songs had its biggest jump, according to this data, between the ’60s and ’80s, and very little has changed from the ’90s to 2008, a time period when the technology of music changed drastically.

“What drives what is heard on the radio is an artist’s desire to have their music hit the mainstream, and a record label’s desire to profit from that,” Steve Jones, vice president at the Canadian radio firm Newcap, told NPR….Jones is right. The length of a song on an album doesn’t matter for anyone except for the artist and fans, but a song that hopes to make money and be played on the radio simply has to be a certain length. Either that, or radio stations will edit the song down to the standard, making it three to four minutes, just like the 45.

But this begs the question. Why do radio stations insist on three minutes? They don’t run ads after literally every song, so it’s not because advertisers demand it. The obvious answer is that this is, in fact, what most fans want.

The core explanation, I think, is that most popular music simply doesn’t have the complexity to sustain itself beyond a few minutes. Both the lyrics and the melodies tend to be fairly simple, and after a few minutes they’ve exhausted their potential. Compare this to classical music and you see it more clearly. Most classical music is considerably more complex than your average pop song, but even so a single movement of a sonata or a symphony usually clocks in at no more than ten minutes or so. Opera arias—which developed in a pre-technological age and with much more patient audiences—are closer in length to modern pop songs, typically lasting 3-7 minutes.

Obviously there are exceptions to this. There are plenty of examples of longish pop songs, just as there are examples of classical pieces longer than ten minutes. But generally speaking, you need a fair amount of complexity to sustain these lengths, and that’s not what most people want. They want simple and hummable, and that means not too long.

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Most Songs are Three Minutes Long Because That’s How Most of Us Like Them

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Pandemonium Broke Out in Ferguson Last Night

Mother Jones

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The peaceful protests in Ferguson, Missouri, descended into pandemonium on Sunday night just hours before the start of a curfew imposed by Gov. Jay Nixon. This morning, it remains unclear what stoked the chaos. Captain Ron Johnson of the Missouri Highway Patrol accused protesters of deliberately provoking the police with gunfire and Molotov cocktails. Protesters deny that anyone attacked the police.

What is clear is that Sunday night saw the greatest show of force since the start of the protests. The Missouri Highway Patrol, which replaced local police forces after those officers drew criticism for their aggressive stance toward demonstrators and journalists, fired rubber bullets into the crowd and marched in formation against protesters.

Photos and shaky video from the scene show tear gas and smoke streaming through disoriented crowds and police in riot gear lining up against citizens. Police ordered television news crews to turn off their lights, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, and responded to a fire at a local store that appeared to have been set by looters. There are reports that violence broke out between civilians and that some civilians shot at police. Antonio French, a St. Louis alderman who has helped lead the protests, addressed those reports on Twitter:

The clash began at about 9 p.m. on West Florissant Avenue, a short walk from the spot where Michael Brown was slain by a police officer. Hours later, news broke that a preliminary autopsy of Brown revealed that the unarmed 18-year-old had been shot six times. Brown’s death, on August 9, inspired the protests after police withheld details about the shooting. The Department of Justice plans its own autopsy.

Demonstrators flee tear gas fired by police in Ferguson J.B. Forbes/AP

By about midnight last night, Ferguson’s streets were empty of protesters. Time‘s Alex Altman watched demonstrators return to the scene of the chaos just after dawn this morning and clean up broken bottles and empty shell casings. French posted a photo of the clean-up this morning:

Nixon announced early Monday morning that he would deploy the state’s National Guard to take control of the town. Civil rights groups, including the NAACP and American Civil Liberties Union, have called on the governor to roll back the curfew. The groups say the curfew “suspends the constitutional right to assemble by punishing the misdeeds of the few through the theft of constitutionally protected rights of the many.”

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch posted video of last night’s confrontation:

Many photos show McDonald’s workers washing a protester’s eyes out with milk after the woman, Cassandra Roberts, was tear-gassed by police. “I just came down here to support my people,” Roberts told reporters. “What the hell is going on in this world?”

Police continued their aggression toward journalists on the scene. Chris Hayes, the MSNBC host, tweeted:

Robert Klemko, a journalist for Sports Illustrated, reported that he was told by Missouri Highway Patrol Captain Ron Johnson to “walk away or be arrested.” Klemko walked away—and was arrested:

Video posted on YouTube reportedly shows police yelling at a member of Argus Radio, a volunteer-run music station that has been live streaming the protests, to “get the fuck out of here and keep that light off or you’re getting shelled with this.”

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Pandemonium Broke Out in Ferguson Last Night

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White Juries Are Not Kind to Black Defendants

Mother Jones

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Alex Tabarrok passes along the results of a new study about the racial composition of jury pools and the resulting juries:

What the authors discover is that all white juries are 16% more likely to convict black defendants than white defendants but the presence of just a single black person in the jury pool equalizes conviction rates by race. The effect is large and remarkably it occurs even when the black person is not picked for the jury. The latter may not seem possible but the authors develop an elegant model of voir dire that shows how using up a veto on a black member of the pool shifts the characteristics of remaining pool members from which the lawyers must pick; that is, a diverse jury pool can make for a more “ideologically” balanced jury even when the jury is not racially balanced.

There is, of course, no de jure discrimination at work here. The law treats every defendant and every jury member the same. But that still doesn’t mean everyone is treated the same. Far from it.

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White Juries Are Not Kind to Black Defendants

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The St. Louis Area Has a Long History of Shameful Racial Violence

Mother Jones

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A mob blocks a street car during the East St. Louis Riot of July 1917 University of Massachusetts-Amherst Libraries

The shooting of Michael Brown in the St. Louis suburb of Ferguson, Missouri, and the subsequent riots, protests, and police crackdown have highlighted the area’s long history of racial strife. One chapter from that history, a century-old summer riot just fourteen miles away from Ferguson, in East St. Louis, Illinois, shows how black Americans were subjected to racial violence from the moment they arrived in the region.

In 1917, East St. Louis was crowded with factories. Jobs were abundant. But as World War I halted the flow of immigration from Eastern Europe, factory recruiters started looking toward the American South for black workers. Thousands came, and as competition for jobs increased, a labor issue became a racial one.

East St. Louis’ angry white workers found sympathy from the leaders of the local Democratic party, who feared that the influx of black, mostly Republican voters threatened their electoral dominance. In one particularly striking parallel to today’s political landscape, local newspapers warned of voter fraud, alleging that black voters were moving between northern cities to swing local elections as part of a far-reaching conspiracy called “colonization,” according to the documentary series Living in St. Louis.

A cartoon from the time of the riot, lambasting then-president Woodrow Wilson for making the world “safe for democracy” while ignoring the plight of East St. Louis. Wikipedia

That May, a local aluminum plant brought in black workers to replace striking white ones. Soon, crowds of whites gathered downtown, at first protesting the migration, then beating blacks and destroying property. On July 1, a group of white men drove through a black neighborhood, firing a gun out their car window. (The perpetrators were never caught.) A few hours later, another car drove through the neighborhood. Black residents fired at it, killing two police officers.

On July 2, as news of the killings got out, white residents went tearing through black neighborhoods, beating and killing blacks and burning some 300 houses as National Guard troops either failed to respond or fled the scene. The official toll counted 39 black and eight white people dead, but others speculated that more than a hundred people died in what is still considered one of the worst incidents of racial violence in twentieth-century America. Afraid for their lives, more than six thousand blacks left the city after the riot.

That the United States was then fighting in Europe to defend democracy while failing to protect its own citizens was not lost on Marcus Garvey, soon to become one of the most famous civil rights leaders of his time: “This is no time for fine words, but a time to lift one’s voice against the savagery of a people who claim to be the dispensers of democracy,” he said to cheers at a speech in Harlem on July 8. “I do not know what special meaning the people who slaughtered the Negroes of East St. Louis have for democracy… but I do know that it has no meaning for me.”

Top image credit: STL250

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The St. Louis Area Has a Long History of Shameful Racial Violence

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