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These Climate Scientists Are Telling You What They Really Think

Mother Jones

Angry. Worried. Frustrated. Anxious.

Such are some of the words that Australian climate scientists use to express their feelings about the dysfunctional climate debate (which, in Australia, has recently seen the repealing of a carbon tax, a chief objective of the current Liberal Party prime minister Tony Abbott). Their writings appear on a new website, entitled “Is This How You Feel?,” run by Joe Duggan, a master’s student in science communication at the Australian National University’s Centre for the Public Awareness of Science. Reached by email, Duggan explained that he “wanted to give scientists the chance to step away from the dry data and clinical prose that laypeople find so hard to engage with.”

Here are some particularly striking emotional expressions from the researchers, expressions that the climate “skeptic” blogger Anthony Watts has said make him want to “hurl”:

I feel a maelstrom of emotions.

Life would be so much simpler if climate change didn’t exist.

I am infuriated. Infuriated we are destroying our planet.

I often feel like shouting…But would that really help? I feel like they don’t listen anyway. After all, we’ve been shouting for years.

It makes me feel sick.

I feel betrayed by our leaders who show no leadership and who place ideology above evidence, willing to say anything to peddle their agendas.

We have so much to lose.

And, perhaps most memorable of all:

I see a group of people sitting in a boat, happily waving, taking pictures on the way, not knowing that this boat is floating right into a powerful and deadly waterfall.

You can read all of the letters here. People often allege that scientists can’t communicate, but as these letters show, that’s not really true.

When they’re actually speaking or writing in the language that they use with other scientists, then yes, scientists can seem incomprehensible. But when they’re speaking simply as people, freed up to express emotions, they share thoughts and feelings that we can all instantly understand.

“This is not the only way to communicate climate change, but it is one way,” says Duggan. “We need to kill apathy through death by a thousand cuts. Maybe this can be one cut.”

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These Climate Scientists Are Telling You What They Really Think

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Russian Sanctions Mostly Hitting Russian Consumers

Mother Jones

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The BBC reports on how those Russian sanctions against Western food have put the squeeze on European and American suppliers:

Moscow officials say frozen fish prices in the capital’s major supermarkets have risen by 6%, milk by 5.3% and an average cheese costs 4.4% more than it did before the 7 August ban took effect. Russia has banned imports of those basic foods, as well as meat and many other products, from Western countries, Australia and Japan. It is retaliation for the West’s sanctions on Russia over the revolt by pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine.

And it is not just Moscow. On the island of Sakhalin, in Russia’s far east, officials say the price of chicken thighs has soared 60%. Before the sanctions these were among the cheapest and most popular meat products in Russia.

Oops. Sorry about that. It’s actually Russian consumers who are paying the price. And for now, that seems to be OK:

Polls show that the vast majority of Russians approve of the sanctions against Western food. They have been told by government officials and state-controlled TV that the embargo will not affect prices, and that it will actually allow Russia’s own agriculture to flourish. And that message is being believed.

At a guess, Russian consumers aren’t very different from American consumers. Nationalistic pride will work for a while, as people accept higher prices as the cost of victory against whoever they’re fighting at the moment. But that won’t last any longer in Russia than it does in America. Give it a few months and public opinion is likely to turn decidedly surly. Who really cares about those damn Ukrainians anyway? They’re just a bunch of malcontents and always have been, amirite?

This is why Vladimir Putin needs a quick victory. The fact that he’s not getting it will eventually prompt him to either (a) quietly give up, or (b) go all in. Unfortunately, there’s really no telling which it will be.

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Russian Sanctions Mostly Hitting Russian Consumers

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You’ll Be Shocked to Learn That Rupert Murdoch Is Wrong About Climate Change

Mother Jones

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This story originally appeared in Huffington Post and is republished here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

Rupert Murdoch shrugged off the notion that climate change is a big deal in an interview on Sunday.

Speaking to Sky News Australia (which he partially owns), Murdoch dismissed the alarming reports coming from scientists about the devastating impact that climate change is causing to the planet.

“We should approach climate change with great skepticism,” he said. “Climate change has been going on as long as the planet is here. There will always be a little bit of it.”

Murdoch acknowledged that the changing planet could wipe out small countries like the Maldives, but he had a quick fix for that.

“We can’t stop it, we’ve just got to stop building vast houses on seashores,” he added. “The world has been changing for thousands and thousands of years, it’s just a lot more complicated today because we are more advanced.”

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Murdoch’s Fox News has been found to give its viewers the most inaccurate information on climate change of any American network.

(h/t Guardian)

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You’ll Be Shocked to Learn That Rupert Murdoch Is Wrong About Climate Change

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What You Need to Know About the Coming Jellyfish Apocalypse

Mother Jones

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More than 50 million Americans swim in the oceans every year (there are actual government surveys of such things). So if your summer plans involves stripping down and bathing in the sun and salt water of your dreams, read on, intrepid beach-goer. There’s something gooey and stingy that’s loving warm waters every bit as much as you are (maybe even more), turning those dreams…to nightmares: jellyfish.

Are there more jellyfish now than ever before?

In some places, yes. One recent University of British Columbia study concluded that “jellyï¬&#129;sh populations appear to be increasing in the majority of the world’s coastal ecosystems and seas,” and blamed human activity for these blooms. The areas most affected are the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, says Lucas Brotz, a PhD student and jellyfish expert at University of British Columbia’s Fisheries Center, and co-author of the report.

The influx of jellyfish can cause big problems. In October last year, a gelatinous swarm plugged cooling pipes for one of the world’s largest nuclear reactors, on the Baltic coast in Sweden, shutting it down. A swarm hobbled a coal-fired power plant near Hadera on the Israeli coast in 2011. Millions of bulging, translucent creatures descended on popular Mediterranean beaches in April 2013, freaking out the tourists. Jellyfish expert Lisa-ann Gershwin writes in her 2013 book Stung! that jellyfish caused the collapse of the $350 million Black Sea fishing industry in the 1990s. In 2007, a plague wiped out a salmon farm off Northern Ireland.

A Lion’s Mane, the largest known type of jellyfish, has tentacles that can reach 100 feet in length. Alexander Semenov/REX/AP Photo

North America hasn’t seen as many jellyfish-related problems as Europe, says Brotz. Although some parts of the West Coast—northern California in particular—have seen spikes in jellyfish populations, “they tend to be smaller species that don’t really affect people very much.”

Is climate change to blame for the increase in jellyfish?

While it’s difficult to trace any single jellyfish bloom to climate change—”It’s really tough, there’s a lot of noise in the signal,” Brotz says—warming oceans appear to be playing a role in the emerging pattern. That’s because the warmer the water, the less oxygen it can hold. Unlike other sea life, jellyfish are very good at surviving in these low-oxygen environments, giving them a comparative advantage.

“Warmer water species are going to start to have more and more areas where they can expand their range into,” he says. Scientists have already observed this phenomenon in Australia’s jellyfish. Brotz expects that in the United States, especially on the East Coast, jellyfish will also begin “showing up earlier and sticking around for longer into the fall.”

While jellyfish appear to be really loving global warming, they could also be driving the change, writes Australian scientist Tim Flannery: “Remarkably, jellyfish may have the capacity to accelerate climate change,” he writes. “Jellyfish release carbon-rich feces and mucus (poo and goo) that bacteria prefer to use for respiration,” turning the bacteria into carbon-making factories, accelerating warming. A gelatinous feedback loop.

But scientists are split over the whether global warming is a dominant factor, and are desperate for more comprehensive datasets to fully understand the dynamic. There’s even an interactive website and smart phone apps developed by the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute to encourage citizen scientists to submit their own sightings to help with a global tracking effort.

There are other factors driving population booms, of course, aside from global warming: Over-fishing has also killed off the jellyfish’s natural predators: fish. Pollution and ocean acidification may also be playing their parts in this complex story.

Should swimmers in the United States be worried?

Every year around the world there are an estimated 150 million jellyfish stings, according to recent research. In the United States, jellyfish are blamed for half a million stings in the Chesapeake Bay and up to 200,000 stings in Florida waters.

That sounds like a lot, but a jellyfish lashing in North America is “more the level of a bee sting,” says Brotz. “It’ll be quite painful and might even give you a little bit of scarring temporarily, but unless you have a severe allergy, it’s not going to be too dangerous.”

The most dangerous species of jellyfish—Chironex fleckeri and Irukandji—are found in the waters around Australia and the Philippines. It only takes three minutes for a sting from Chironex fleckeri, a species of box jellyfish, to kill you, with a tentacle laced with some of the world’s deadliest poison. Box jellyfish are outfitted with superior wits and senses to their jellyfish brethren, writes Flannery. For one, they can see: “They are also the only jellyfish with eyes that are quite sophisticated, with retinas and corneas… And they have brains, which are capable of learning, memory, and guiding complex behaviors.” (Shudder.) A single brush of the Irukandji jellyfish—in the box jellyfish family—can cause searing pain and cramps, inducing nausea and vomiting which can continue for 12 hours, and more insidiously, an existential dread: Victims are “gripped with a sense of ‘impending doom’.”

A box jelly fish photographed in aquarium. Daleen Loest/Shutterstock

“As the oceans warm,” Flannery writes, “the tropical box jellyfish and the Irukandjis are likely to extend their ranges.” That’s already the case, with Irukandji spotted in coastal waters from Cape Town to Florida.

Great.

How many people die every year from jellyfish stings?

We don’t know, because deaths can so easily be attributed to other causes, like drowning. But readers filled with terror about sharks chomping down on your leg while you swim should put this in perspective: the death toll from jellyfish is definitely more than from sharks. Sharks kill about eight to 10 people a year. Jellyfish kill at least 50, according to Brotz.

If you get stung, what should you do?

I’m sorry to say, despite everything you’ve heard, peeing on a sting is not going to help. We’ll get to that in a moment. But first, here’s what’s going on when a jellyfish stings you.

A jellyfish has “thousands or millions” of these really fascinating little cells with their own venom sacs that operate “almost like a hypodermic syringe,” says Brotz. “If you come in contact with them, each cell has it’s own little trigger hair. Once the trigger hair gets fired, basically this little harpoon will shoot out of the cell.”

“The more tentacle you come in contact with, the more of these cells, these nematocysts, the more severe the sting is going to be. Even when a tentacle breaks off from a jellyfish these nematocysts are still active.”

Here’s what to do, and what not to do, according to Brotz:

  1. If you find a jellyfish dead and washed up on the beach, don’t touch it because it could still sting you.
  2. Even if you’ve been stung already, you might still have bits of “unfired nematocysts” stuck to you. Don’t rub them; they might sting you further.
  3. Try to pick off any little bits of tentacle that are stuck to you, but avoid using your fingers. Again: they can still release venom. Brotz suggests a pair of tweezers, or even a stick.
  4. “After that it’s best to rinse it with sea water,” says Brotz. “You don’t really want to use freshwater because that can also chemically cause the nematocysts to fire.”
  5. That advice about seawater goes for urine, too.
  6. Vinegar, an acetic acid, has been used for years to prevent box jellyfish stingers from firing. But this remedy has been called into question with new research in Australia that says it could actually increase the venom load in the victim by 50 percent.

If there are too many jellyfish, what about eating them to control their populations?

People do eat jellyfish. It’s quite a common delicacy in parts of Asia, and the jellyfish-as-food business is booming, says Brotz, who estimates the annual global catch to be around one million tons. “I mean, that’s much more than the global catch of say lobsters, or scallops,” he says.

And while jellyfish fisheries are growing around the world to cater for the demand, Brotz warns that eating them won’t necessarily be a solution to overpopulation.

Dried jellyfish being sold in Hong Kong’s Sheung Wan market. Claudio Zaccherini/Shutterstock

Of the twelve types of edible fish, sand jellyfish and cannonball jellyfish are the most popular, and tend to be a “more meaty, a little bit more dense species,” says Brotz. Consumers “really like to have the final product to have a little bit of a crunch to it,” and there’s only a handful of species that can really deliver.

What does it taste like? “It’s this interesting line between crunchy and chewy,” Brotz says. “It sort of reminds me of under-cooked pasta, like al dente pasta, with crunch and chew at the same time. Of course, it depends on what market it’s heading for. Japanese prefer their jellyfish much crunchier than, say, the Chinese do.”

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What You Need to Know About the Coming Jellyfish Apocalypse

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We Just Experienced the Hottest May on Record

Mother Jones

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This story originally appeared in the Guardian and is republished here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

Last month was the hottest May globally since records began in 1880, new figures show.

The record heat, combined with increasingly certain predictions of an El Niño, means experts are now speculating whether 2014 could become the hottest year on record.

Data published by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Monday showed the average land and ocean surface temperature last month was 0.74C above the 20th century average of 14.8C, making it the highest on record.

Previously, the warmest May was 2010, followed by 2012, 1998 and 2013.

Worldwide, March-May was the second warmest ever by NOAA’s records—2010 holds the record for that period. April 2014 was also the hottest April ever by NOAA’s records.

There are two other main global temperature records in addition to NOAA’s, one kept by NASA and the other by the Met Office’s Hadley Centre in the UK. The three are combined by the UN’s World Meteorological Organization, which ranks 2010 as the warmest on record, and says that 13 of the 14 warmest years on record occurred in the 21st century.

Some forecasters are now predicting a 90 percent chance of El Niño—the weather phenomenon that can cause drought in Asia and Australia and lead to higher temperatures—happening this year, opening the possibility that 2014 will be the hottest year yet.

Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., told the Guardian‘s environment network partner, ClimateCentral: “I agree that 2014 could well be the warmest on record, and/or 2015, depending on how things play out.”

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We Just Experienced the Hottest May on Record

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A Darker View of the Age of Us – the Anthropocene

Divergent views on prospects for a “good” Anthropocene — this era of a human-dominated planet. Read more:   A Darker View of the Age of Us – the Anthropocene ; ;Related ArticlesExploring Academia’s Role in Charting Paths to a ‘Good’ AnthropoceneRoundup: Can New E.P.A. CO2 Rules Have a Climate Impact?Indian Point’s Tritium Problem and the N.R.C.’s Regulatory Problem ;

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A Darker View of the Age of Us – the Anthropocene

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Welsh Rockers Catfish and the Bottlemen Aim "Right to the Top"

Mother Jones

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Van McCann, the gleeful 21-year-old frontman of Welsh indie-rock band Catfish and the Bottlemen, doesn’t appear to have a sarcastic bone in his body. We meet in a shady spot on Randall’s Island in New York City, at the Governor’s Ball music festival. Even among the Brooklynites jockeying to out-hipster each other, McCann’s bouncy rocker haircut and skinny pants stand out. He informs me that I have a face that makes him happy to look at, which is also how he feels about Scottish actor Ewan McGregor’s face. In fact, the band’s new video for the song, “Kathleen,” features almost three minutes of McGregor smiling on screen. McCann isn’t being ironic. “I just love him!” he exclaims.

McCann’s band, which debuted Kathleen and the Other Three, its new EP, in the US earlier this month, has the kind of back story a label might try to make up to draw buzz. (The UK’s Communion Records, which also works with Edward Sharpe and the Magnetic Zeroes, signed Catfish and the Bottlemen in 2013). McCann says his mom couldn’t have children naturally, and he was born in the final in-vitro fertilization attempt. When he was a kid his family traveled around Australia, where he saw a busker named Catfish and the Bottlemen, hence the name. He met his bandmates—guitarist Billy Bibby, bassist Benji Blakeway, and drummer Bob Hall—in school back in Llandudno, Wales, and when McCann was 15, he got kicked out of school, not “because I was a little shit,” but because he was playing too many shows and missing exams.

Since then, Catfish and the Bottlemen have been busting their asses and playing a lot of gigs—including ones they’re not invited to. McCann recalls one time when the band couldn’t get on the opening slot of a show they wanted to play, so they rented a generator, revved it up, put on ninja masks in the parking lot, and waited for everyone to leave the gig before starting to rock out. “Everyone just went crazy; we got arrested for sound pollution!” McCann says. Last year, they played upward of 100 shows in 18 months. This summer, they’re scheduled to play more than 30 festivals.

Their EP’s title track is a catchy, sex-drenched rock song that wouldn’t sound out of place on an Arctic Monkeys record, or maybe the long-lost dirty Killers album. “It’s impractical, to go out and catch a death with a dress fit for the summer/So you don’t/Instead you call me up with a head full of filth,” McCann sings. The other songs aren’t quite as much fun, although “Homesick” reminds me of all the times I emo-ed out in my car to Dashboard Confessional as a teenager—which as far as I’m concerned, is a good thing. McCann notes that right now he’s listening to British indie group Little Comets and the National, but he’s also a fan of the Strokes, Van Morrison, and the Beatles, of course.

At the Governor’s Ball, the Bottlemen played around noon, long before fans flooded the park to see Skrillex and Jack White. But speaking with McCann, I got the sense that the band could cheerfully propel itself straight to world domination. McCann says his goal is to play giant stadiums, not just intimate indie-rock clubs. “Right to the top, all the way to the top. To me, I don’t see the point of doing it otherwise,” he says. He describes playing New York as, “Fucking ace, man. It’s amazing, I love it!” He adds, giddily, “When I was walking through the streets of New York the other day, this girl came up to me and was like, ‘Dude your band is awesome!’ I was like, ‘I’ve only been here a day!'”

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Welsh Rockers Catfish and the Bottlemen Aim "Right to the Top"

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Obama Goes Off on Mass Shootings

Mother Jones

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It was easy to miss this week, eclipsed by major news including Eric Cantor’s stunning defeat and the mounting chaos in Iraq, but on Tuesday, President Obama made some of his starkest comments yet on America’s epidemic of gun violence. In an hour-long Q&A with the CEO of Tumblr at the White House—an event focused on education, student debt, and related issues—the president was at one point asked a question about the massacre in Santa Barbara and other incidents in the latest flurry of high-profile gun rampages. He went off for almost eight minutes. In the nearly six years of his presidency, he said, “My biggest frustration so far is the fact that this society has not been willing to take some basic steps to keep guns out of the hands of people who can do just unbelievable damage.”

See all of Mother Jones‘ reporting on guns in America.

Below read the full transcript of Obama’s remarks on gun violence:

TUMBLR CEO: This one was sent in a few days ago: “Mr. President, my name is Nick Dineen, and I attend school at the University of California-Santa Barbara. I was the RA for the floor that George Chen lived on last year as a first-year college student. I knew him. Elliot Rodger killed him and five more of my fellow students. Today, another man has shot and killed at least one person and injured three others at a private Christian school in Seattle. What are you going to do? What can we all do?” And of course, another mass shooting this morning.

PRESIDENT OBAMA: I have to say that people often ask me how has it been being president, and what am I proudest of and what are my biggest disappointments. And I’ve got two and a half years left. My biggest frustration so far is the fact that this society has not been willing to take some basic steps to keep guns out of the hands of people who can do just unbelievable damage.

We’re the only developed country on Earth where this happens. And it happens now once a week. And it’s a one-day story. There’s no place else like this. A couple of decades ago, Australia had a mass shooting similar to Columbine or Newtown. And Australia just said, well, that’s it—we’re not seeing that again. And basically imposed very severe, tough gun laws. And they haven’t had a mass shooting since.

Our levels of gun violence are off the charts. There’s no advanced, developed country on Earth that would put up with this. Now, we have a different tradition. We have a Second Amendment. We have historically respected gun rights. I respect gun rights. But the idea that, for example, we couldn’t even get a background check bill in to make sure that if you’re going to buy a weapon you have to actually go through a fairly rigorous process so that we know who you are, so you can’t just walk up to a store and buy a semi-automatic weapon—it makes no sense.

And I don’t know if anybody saw the brief press conference from the father of the young man who had been killed at Santa Barbara. And as a father myself, I just could not understand the pain he must be going through and just the primal scream that he gave out—why aren’t we doing something about this?

And I will tell you, I have been in Washington for a while now and most things don’t surprise me. The fact that 20 six-year-olds were gunned down in the most violent fashion possible and this town couldn’t do anything about it was stunning to me. And so the question then becomes what can we do about it. The only thing that is going to change is public opinion. If public opinion does not demand change in Congress, it will not change. I’ve initiated over 20 executive actions to try to tighten up some of the rules in the laws, but the bottom line is, is that we don’t have enough tools right now to really make as big of a dent as we need to.

And most members of Congress—and I have to say, to some degree, this is bipartisan—are terrified of the NRA. The combination of the NRA and gun manufacturers are very well financed and have the capacity to move votes in local elections and congressional elections. And so if you’re running for office right now, that’s where you feel the heat. And people on the other side may be generally favorable towards things like background checks and other commonsense rules but they’re not as motivated. So that’s not—that doesn’t end up being the issue that a lot of you vote on.

And until that changes, until there is a fundamental shift in public opinion in which people say, enough, this is not acceptable, this is not normal, this isn’t sort of the price we should be paying for our freedom, that we can have respect for the Second Amendment and responsible gun owners and sportsmen and hunters can have the ability to possess weapons but that we are going to put some commonsense rules in place that make a dent, at least, in what’s happening—until that is not just the majority of you—because that’s already the majority of you, even the majority of gun owners believe that. But until that’s a view that people feel passionately about and are willing to go after folks who don’t vote reflecting those values, until that happens, sadly, not that much is going to change.

The last thing I’ll say: A lot of people will say that, well, this is a mental-health problem, it’s not a gun problem. The United States does not have a monopoly on crazy people. Laughter. It’s not the only country that has psychosis. And yet, we kill each other in these mass shootings at rates that are exponentially higher than anyplace else. Well, what’s the difference? The difference is, is that these guys can stack up a bunch of ammunition in their houses and that’s sort of par for the course.

So the country has to do some soul searching about this. This is becoming the norm, and we take it for granted in ways that, as a parent, are terrifying to me. And I am prepared to work with anybody, including responsible sportsmen and gun owners, to craft some solutions. But right now, it’s not even possible to get even the mildest restrictions through Congress, and we should be ashamed of that.

For more of Mother Jones award-winning investigative reporting on guns in America, see all of our latest coverage here, and our special reports.

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Obama Goes Off on Mass Shootings

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Here’s Where Food Trends Come From

Mother Jones

What makes a food trend? In his new book, The Tastemakers: Why We’re Crazy for Cupcakes but Fed Up With Fondue, out May 27, journalist David Sax sets out to discover the hidden forces behind our diets. From a cupcake stop on the Sex and the City tour in New York to the board rooms of the McCormick spice company to the apple orchards of Ontario, Sax talks to the people who decide which foods become popular and when. Along the way, he learns that few fads spread on their own. Most are the result of well orchestrated marketing plans—like how the pork industry engineered the bacon trend to help sell less popular pig parts. I spoke to Sax about the Chipotle-fication of Indian food, how Sex and the City made cupcakes sexy, and how the dawn of the HIV/AIDS epidemic hastened the demise of the fondue-party era.

Journalist David Sax, author of The Tastemakers: Why We’re Crazy for Cupcakes but Fed Up With Fondue Photo by Christopher Farber

Mother Jones: Your book opens on a Sex and the City tour bus. Why?

David Sax: The book opens on this Sex and the City hotspots tour, which has been running in New York for ten years or so. They stop at the Plaza Hotel, they go by Tiffany’s, they show clips on the bus. The halfway point of the tour is in the West Village, kitty corner from Magnolia Bakery. Most of the people on the tour went right for Magnolia. It was this edible icon of the show and everything it stood for. That encapsulated so much about the cupcake trend. There were people from Sweden, Australia, Middle America. They all wanted to go to Magnolia because this place was the shrine that symbolized so much more than a little cake.

MJ: So is Sex and the City responsible for the cupcake trend?

DS: That was the tipping point. That imparted the cupcake with something entirely above and beyond. It was no longer just about, this is a delicious thing and you should have it. It was about this is a symbol of femininity, sexually liberalized, capitalist feminism. This is the stiletto, the cosmo, the Rabbit vibrator equivalent. It gave cupcakes a storyline. It changed their identity. This is not a child’s treat anymore. This is, ‘You go girl. You get your cupcake.’ The Virginia Slim of the 21st century.

MJ: So that’s one way a food trend can happen, through pop culture. But the way you tell it, the story of bacon was completely different.

DS: This was an industry-driven trend. It was the result of a concerted effort by the pork industry to revive this cut of meat—pork belly, which is what you make bacon out of—that had been so demonized in the 1980s by the low-fat, low-cholesterol diet trend that was so incredibly popular. They spent money to get pork producers and smokehouses to develop round, pre-cooked slices of bacon that would fit on a hamburger, so then they could go to Burger King and Wendy’s and be like, listen, here is the money to help you to develop new burgers. We really want you to try them with bacon. The fast food companies are always looking for something else to sell. So the bacon trend—unlike most trends, which trickle down because chefs are doing it, or some cool bakery in New York is doing it, and it works its way down through Cheesecake Factory to TGI Fridays and Costco—it started in fast food and worked its way up to something that chefs were tossing with Brussels sprouts. And then it hit its cultural moment.

The coffee trend is another example. There is a Swedish tradition of a coffee break called fika in the afternoon. Maxwell House was looking to increase coffee consumption in the ’30s and ’40s, and they happened upon this thing that they put in their ads and marketing. It became such a big thing that it was in union contracts. And that triggered the growth of coffee consumption.

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Here’s Where Food Trends Come From

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Why This Year’s El Niño Could Grow Into a Monster

Mother Jones

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This story originally appeared in Slate, and is republished here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

The odds are increasing that an El Niño is in the works for 2014—and recent forecasts show it might be a big one.

As we learned from Chris Farley, El Niños can boost the odds of extreme weather (droughts, typhoons, heat waves) across much of the planet. But the most important thing about El Niño is that it is predictable, sometimes six months to a year in advance.

That’s an incredibly powerful tool, especially if you are one of the billions who live where El Niño tends to hit hardest—Asia and the Americas. If current forecasts stay on track, El Niño might end up being the biggest global weather story of 2014.

The most commonly accepted definition of an El Niño is a persistent warming of the so-called “Niño3.4” region of the tropical Pacific Ocean south of Hawaii, lasting for at least five consecutive three-month “seasons.” A recent reversal in the direction of the Pacific trade winds appears to have kicked off a warming trend during the last month or two. That was enough to prompt US government forecasters to issue an El Niño watch last month.

Forecasters are increasingly confident in a particularly big El Niño this time around because, deep below the Pacific Ocean’s surface, off-the-charts warm water is lurking:

That giant red blob is a huge sub-surface wave of anomalously warm water that currently spans the tropical Pacific Ocean—big enough to cover the United States 300 feet deep. That’s a lot of warm water. Australia Bureau of Meteorology

As that blob of warm water moves eastward, propelled by the anomalous trade winds, it’s also getting closer to the ocean’s surface. Once that happens, it will begin to interact with the atmosphere, boosting temperatures and changing weather patterns.

There are signs that this huge pool of sub-surface warmth is starting to emerge on the surface in recent days:

Which means that April 2014 could be the month the mega El Niño gets officially underway.

Now, before we get ahead of ourselves, meteorologist Cliff Mass warns that this time of year is known for lower performance in forecasting El Niños. But in general, scientists who follow these things are anticipating what could become a strong event.

“We’re carefully watching the potential development of an El Niño later this spring and into summer,” said forecaster Tony Barnston of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society in a recorded briefing message. “Below the surface we have a lot of warming and that could eventually make its way to the surface and create an El Niño.”

The warm water just below the ocean’s surface is on par with that of the biggest El Niño ever recorded, in 1997-98. That event caused $35 billion in damages and was blamed for around 23,000 deaths worldwide, according to the University of New South Wales. The 1997-98 El Niño is also the only other time since records begin in 1980 that sub-surface Pacific Ocean water has been this warm in April.

Climate change skeptics point to El Niño-fueled 1998 as the year global warming “stopped.” Of course, global warming hasn’t stopped at all. The 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1998. The acceleration of that warming has slowed, though, compared with the previous breakneck pace during the late 20th century.

One of the theories put forth by the mainstream scientific community to explain the slow-down since 1998 has been increased storage of warm water in the Pacific Ocean. If that theory is true, and if a major El Niño is indeed in the works, the previously rapid rate of global warming could resume, with dramatic consequences.

As I wrote last fall, the coming El Niño could be enough to make 2014 the hottest year in recorded history, and 2015 could be even warmer than that. The 1997-98 super El Niño was enough to boost global temperatures by nearly a quarter of a degree Celsius. If that scale of warming happens again, the world could approach a 1ºC departure from pre-industrial times as early as next year. As climate scientist James Hansen has warned, that’s around the highest that temperatures have ever been since human civilization began.

Indeed, even the forecast is already having an effect: An index of global food prices reached a 10-month high in March, blamed in part on shortages an El Niño may exacerbate. Here’s what else we could expect:

A severe drought continues to rage in and around Indonesia, which an El Niño would likely worsen.

Peru’s anchovy catch may be significantly affected should a strong El Niño materialize.

Australia’s ongoing battles with bush fires may be intensified once its dry season resumes later this year.

But perhaps the strangest impact so far has been in India, where monsoon forecasting is at the heart of national politics. The meteorology department there has accused US weather forecasters of “spreading rumors” and colluding to ruin the Indian stock market by forecasting a return of El Niño.

There’s a bit of good news, too: Hurricane seasons in the Atlantic tend to be less severe under this kind of forecast. And people in drought-stricken California could be forgiven if they’re crossing their fingers for a strong El Niño, which is linked to some of the wettest years in state history. Still, it’s certainly no slam dunk that an El Niño would be enough to end the crippling drought there or even bring above normal rainfall. And if the El Niño ends up being as strong as current predictions indicate, there’s a chance it may even tip the scales from drought to deluge across the state, spurring damaging mudslides amid bursts of heavy rain. The two strongest El Niños in the last 30 years—1982-83 and 1997-98—both caused widespread damage from flooding in California.

The moral of the story here is: Be careful what you wish for.

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Why This Year’s El Niño Could Grow Into a Monster

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