Tag Archives: data

Remember That Shot Fired a Few Months Ago in the Great Immigration vs. Wages War? Turns Out It Was a Dud.

by WinfredBSB Posted on December 14, 2015

Mother Jones

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Does immigration depress wages? One of the seminal studies of this was done by David Card in 1990. He studied the Mariel boatlift of 1980, which swamped Miami with new immigrants, and concluded that there was little effect on wages. A few months ago, George Borjas took a fresh look at the data, and concluded there was an effect, but it was restricted to those without a high school diploma. Among high school dropouts, wages dropped 10-30 percent for about six years.

The key chart is on the right. Click here for more detail, but the nickel version is that the blue line shows the wages of Miami’s dropout population compared to other cities. I wrote about this at the time, and noted an oddity: “Before 1980 and after 1990, the wages of high school dropouts in Miami are above zero, which means dropouts earned more than high school grads. That seems very peculiar, and none of the control cities show the same effect. Does this suggest there’s something wrong with the Miami data?”

Yes it does! A pair of researchers at UC Davis tried to recreate Borjas’s conclusions, but they couldn’t do it. “Significant noise exists in many samples,” they say, “but we never find significant negative effects especially right after the Boatlift, when they should have been the strongest.”

So what’s up? Where did Borjas get his huge effect? Well, it turns out that his Miami data was indeed suspect:

We find that the main reason is the use of a small sub-sample within the group of the high school dropouts, obtained by eliminating from the sample women, non-Cuban Hispanics and selecting a short age range (25-59). All three of these restrictions are problematic and, in particular, the last two as they eliminate groups on which the effect of Mariel should have been particularly strong (Hispanic and young workers). We can replicate Borjas’ results when using this small sub-sample and the smaller March CPS, rather than the larger May-ORG CPS used by all other studies of the Boatlift. The drastic sample restrictions described above leave Borjas with only 17 to 25 observations per year to calculate average wage of high school dropouts in Miami.

So Borjas used a small March census sample, and then left out several groups that should have shown a strong response to the wave of immigration. As a result, his sample size is so small as to be useless. Tweaking his data even slightly removes the wage effect entirely.

Borjas does mention sample-size problems in his paper, but never really addresses it or makes it clear just how tiny his sample is. I’ll be curious to hear Borjas’s reaction to this, but given the questions I already had about his paper, this reappraisal of his data puts it pretty firmly in the category of unlikely to be true. For now, it appears that even a massive influx of new immigrants over a period of just a few weeks has almost no effect on wages at all.

Does this mean that immigration in general also has no effect on wages? Nope. But it certainly suggests that the effect is probably pretty small if it exists at all. In any case, the Borjas paper doesn’t seem to prove anything one way or the other.

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Remember That Shot Fired a Few Months Ago in the Great Immigration vs. Wages War? Turns Out It Was a Dud.

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New Photos: See Pluto’s Surface in Incredibly Rich Detail

by ElmoMaudsley Posted on September 10, 2015

Mother Jones

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We love Pluto. We love that we know so much more about it now—after the spacecraft New Horizons hurtled 3 billion miles to get there and send back the amazing Pluto pictures that arrived in July. Today, NASA released a new set of images that bring us right up close to the planet’s weird, chaotic surface in unprecedented detail.

Here’s NASA’s take:

“This is what we came for—these images, spectra and other data types that are going to help us understand the origin and the evolution of the Pluto system for the first time,” said New Horizons Principal Investigator Alan Stern, of the Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) in Boulder, Colorado. “And what’s coming is not just the remaining 95 percent of the data that’s still aboard the spacecraft—it’s the best datasets, the highest-resolution images and spectra, the most important atmospheric datasets, and more. It’s a treasure trove.”

Our friend Phil Plait at Slate has some more detail about what these images tell us. But for now, just check them out for yourself. Kickass!

NASA: “This synthetic perspective view of Pluto shows what you would see if you were approximately 1,100 miles above Pluto’s equatorial area, looking northeast over the dark, cratered, informally named Cthulhu Regio toward the bright, smooth, expanse of icy plains informally called Sputnik Planum. The entire expanse of terrain seen in this image is 1,100 miles across.” NASA

NASA: “This image features a tremendous variety of other landscapes surrounding Sputnik. The smallest visible features are 0.5 miles in size, and the mosaic covers a region roughly 1,000 miles wide.” The white squares outline close-ups in the following two images. NASA

A close-up from the image above, this is called the “chaos region” because of the diversity of surface geology. NASA

NASA: “This 220-mile wide view illustrates the incredible diversity of surface reflectivities and geological landforms on the dwarf planet. The image includes dark, ancient heavily cratered terrain; bright, smooth geologically young terrain; assembled masses of mountains; and an enigmatic field of dark, aligned ridges that resemble dunes; its origin is under debate.” NASA

NASA: “Two different versions of an image of Pluto’s haze layers, from a distance of 480,000 miles. Pluto’s north is at the top, and the sun illuminates Pluto from the upper right. The left version has had only minor processing, while the right version has been specially processed to reveal a large number of discrete haze layers in the atmosphere. In the left version, faint surface details on the narrow sunlit crescent are seen through the haze in the upper right of Pluto’s disk, and subtle parallel streaks in the haze may be crepuscular rays—shadows cast on the haze by topography such as mountain ranges on Pluto, similar to the rays sometimes seen in the sky after the sun sets behind mountains on Earth.” NASA

The moon, Charon. NASA

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New Photos: See Pluto’s Surface in Incredibly Rich Detail

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This Chart Will Make You Even More Pissed Off About Your Ballooning Student Debt

by AlenaWhiting Posted on August 21, 2015

Mother Jones

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For the tens of thousands of college students who are taking out another year’s worth of debt in preparation for the start of classes, here’s a rage-inducing data point: Many universities spend way more managing their investment portfolios than they do assisting students with tuition.

A New York Times op-ed published Wednesday by Victor Fleischer, a law professor at the University of San Diego, lays out this disparity. Fleischer cited Yale University, which paid its fund managers nearly $743 million in 2014 but gave out just $170 million in scholarships. He also noted that many universities, large and small, public and private, show the same imbalance in spending. “We’ve lost sight of the idea that students, not fund managers, should be the primary beneficiaries of a university’s endowment,” he writes. “The private-equity folks get cash; students take out loans.”

Fleischer provided Mother Jones with more of his data, which is gleaned from tax forms, financial statements, and annual reports. Here’s how the numbers shake out at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Princeton. On average, these four wealthy, elite universities spend 70 percent more on managing their investment portfolios than they do on tuition assistance. (Complete scholarship data for 2014 was not available, and some investment management fees are estimated.)

That disparity is even more glaring when you consider the tax benefits fund managers derive from working with universities. Fleischer notes that investors typically pay their fund managers about 20 percent of their investment profits. That money, called carried interest, is taxed at a lower rate for fund managers, who can claim it as capital gains instead of income.

Some universities justify the high management fees by arguing that they ensure top financial performance for their endowments. It’s true that these portfolios have done quite well: Harvard’s endowment is nearly $36 billion, and Yale’s is more than $25 billion, a 50 percent increase since 2009. But, writes Fleischer, a little less endowment hoarding and a little more spending, both on financial aid and other educational goals, would still allow universities’ money to grow generously while eliminating the hefty tuition increases that force students to take on burdensome debt.

Fleischer proposes that when Congress moves to reauthorize the Higher Education Act this term, lawmakers should require universities with assets greater than $100 million to spend 8 percent of their endowment each year. Even doing that, universities would likely continue to get exponentially richer. As he notes, the average endowment has grown 9.2 percent annually for the past 20 years (after accounting for 4 percent annual spending), a more than respectable rate of return.

Elite schools do offer need-blind admission and some of the best financial aid for low-income students. But for many students, tuition increases still mean more loans: On paper, many middle-class students often don’t qualify for large scholarships, but their families also can’t afford more than $50,000 in annual tuition. More generous allocation of endowments could help to roll back that trend while also funding more teaching and research. As Fleischer writes in the Times, “Only fund managers would be worse off.”

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This Chart Will Make You Even More Pissed Off About Your Ballooning Student Debt

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Happy Families: Let’s Just Call It a Tie Between Democrats and Republicans

by JaimeMcElhaney4 Posted on August 17, 2015

Mother Jones

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Who’s got happier families, Democrats or Republicans? David Leonhardt reports on a new study that says it’s Republicans:

Among married people between the ages of 20 and 60, 67 percent of Republicans report being “very happy” with their marriages….That gap shrank when the researchers factored in demographic differences between parties….But the gap did not disappear. Even among people with the same demographic profile, Republicans are slightly more likely than Democrats to say they are happily married. The seven-percentage-point gap that exists between Republicans and Democrats without any demographic controls shrinks to three percentage points with those controls.

OK, so three percentage points. And since this study was done by Brad Wilcox of the right-wing Institute for Family Studies, you have to figure it’s as friendly toward Republicans as possible. But even Wilcox admits that causality might work in the opposite direction:

The GSS data and our earlier research suggest that an elective affinity—based on region, religion, culture, and economics—has emerged in the American electorate: married people are more likely to identify as Republican and unmarried people are more likely to identify as Democratic.

Sure. The Democratic Party is obviously more friendly toward non-married couples and the Republican Party is more dedicated to the proposition that (heterosexual) marriage is important. So the survey difference could be due to the fact that Republicans are simply less likely to admit to an unhappy marriage. As Wilcox says, “Perhaps Republicans are more optimistic, more charitable, or more inclined to look at their marriages through rose-colored glasses.”

Personally, I’d be happy to put this whole subject to rest. The differences are small no matter how you slice the data, and really, who cares? Republicans generally report higher happiness levels overall, which is understandable at one level (conservatism doesn’t challenge your comfort level much) but peculiar at another (if they’re so happy, what’s the deal with the endless anger and outrage?). But whatever the reason, if they’re generally happier they’re probably also happier with their marriages.

As for generally dysfunctional family behavior (teen pregnancy, divorce rates, etc.), I suspect that has a lot more to do with social factors like race, age, religion, and so forth. Party ID doesn’t seem likely to play a huge role as a causal factor. Unless someone comes up with some genuinely blockbuster results, I’m willing to just call this a tie and move on.

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Happy Families: Let’s Just Call It a Tie Between Democrats and Republicans

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AT&T Is the NSA’s Best Friend

by MarlonArchuleta Posted on August 15, 2015

Mother Jones

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New Snowden documents indicate that AT&T has been the biggest and most cooperative supplier of internet and phone data to the NSA:

AT&T has given the N.S.A. access, through several methods covered under different legal rules, to billions of emails as they have flowed across its domestic networks. It provided technical assistance in carrying out a secret court order permitting the wiretapping of all Internet communications at the United Nations headquarters, a customer of AT&T.

….In September 2003, according to the previously undisclosed N.S.A. documents, AT&T was the first partner to turn on a new collection capability that the N.S.A. said amounted to a “ ‘live’ presence on the global net.” In one of its first months of operation, the Fairview program forwarded to the agency 400 billion Internet metadata records — which include who contacted whom and other details, but not what they said — and was “forwarding more than one million emails a day to the keyword selection system” at the agency’s headquarters in Fort Meade, Md.

….In 2011, AT&T began handing over 1.1 billion domestic cellphone calling records a day to the N.S.A. after “a push to get this flow operational prior to the 10th anniversary of 9/11,” according to an internal agency newsletter. This revelation is striking because after Mr. Snowden disclosed the program of collecting the records of Americans’ phone calls, intelligence officials told reporters that, for technical reasons, it consisted mostly of landline phone records.

US spying on the UN was stopped in 2013 after it was first reported, but it was never clear just exactly how much spying had gone on in the first place. We still don’t know, but one of the documents in this new collection says the NSA was authorized to conduct “full-take access,” and that the amount of data was so large that it flooded the NSA’s technical capability unless a “robust filtering mechanism” was put in place. Sounds like a lot of spying.

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AT&T Is the NSA’s Best Friend

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Rand Paul’s Super PAC is Powered By Whole Foods and Pot

by Neville11O Posted on July 24, 2015

Mother Jones

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Rand Paul’s fundraising has been surprisingly anemic over the past few months as the GOP presidential candidate has found his message failing to resonate with some of the traditional sources of GOP campaign money, such as Wall Street. But a recent filing by a super PAC that supports him, and which is staffed by former aides and relatives of the Senator, shows that Paul is getting some traction with libertarian-leaning donors. The bad news for Paul is that the oufit backing his candidacy still raised $100 million less than the one backing Jeb Bush.

The super PAC, America’s Liberty PAC, reported raising $3.1 million in the first half of 2015, with two wealthy businessmen chipping in $1 million or more each. George Macricostas, the CEO of data storage company RagingWire, donated $1.1 million to the super PAC. Jeff Yass, the CEO of Philadelphia private investment firm Susquehenna International donated $1 million. Both represent relatively untapped sources of money for a conservative candidate. Yass has previously written large checks, but none larger than the $50,000 donation he made in 2004 to Club for Growth, while Macricostas appears to have donated a total of just over $12,000 prior to his $1.1 million donation to America’s Liberty.

The super PAC roped in other big donations, including $50,000 from John Mackey, the CEO of Whole Foods, and $50,000 from Patrick Byrne, the CEO of Overstock.com. The group also also received $15,000 from ICC Holdings, an Illinois company hoping to be one of the first companies to legally operate a commercial cannabis farm.

America’s Liberty PAC is one of two pro-Paul super PACs. To date, the group has spent about $412,000, and produced an anti-Jeb Bush online ad, mocking him as “Bailout Bush.” On the group’s payroll is the consulting firm of Jesse Benton, who is married to Rand Paul’s niece and who was previously a top aide to Ron Paul’s presidential campaign. Benton resigned from his position as campaign manager for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell last August over his involvement with an ongoing scandal stemming from the 2012 Iowa caucuses. (A former Iowa state senator has admitted to taking money from the Ron Paul 2012 presidential campaign in exchange for his endorsement and is awaiting sentencing.) Since the beginning of the year, the super PAC has paid Benton’s company $63,000 for consulting work.

America’s Liberty PAC also reported paying John F. Tate, who was Ron Paul’s campaign manager in 2012 and now runs Campaign For Liberty, a grassroots libertarian group founded by Ron Paul.

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Rand Paul’s Super PAC is Powered By Whole Foods and Pot

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The fracking industry just got more tech savvy

by RetaRIOEstmqncw Posted on June 3, 2015

Shale 2.0

The fracking industry just got more tech savvy

By on 3 Jun 2015 6:43 pmcommentsShare

It looks like the U.S. fracking industry is becoming a little less “Wild West” and little more West Coast Silicon Valley. And no — I can’t decide which one sounds worse, either.

True, low oil prices recently brought the industry to its knees: The number of rigs nationwide fell by more than half since October of last year. But at the same time, the industry has been getting smarter about how it operates. Here’s the scoop from MIT Technology Review:

Much of the new technological innovation in shale comes from a simple fact: practice makes perfect. Tapping hydrocarbons in “tight,” geologically complex formations means drilling lots and lots of wells—many more than in conventional oil fields. Drilling thousands of wells since the shale revolution began in 2006 has enabled producers—many of them relatively small and nimble—to apply lessons learned at a much higher rate than their counterparts in the conventional oil industry.

Some innovations in fracking hardware include “walking rigs” that move from hole to hole, better drill bits, remote-controlled drilling capabilities, and advanced fracking liquids, Technology Review reports. Big data — like an annoying party guest who has something deep and insightful to say about everything — has also entered the picture:

Thanks to new sensing capabilities, the volume of data produced by a modern unconventional drilling operation is immense—up to one megabyte per foot drilled, according to Mills’s “Shale 2.0” report, or between one and 15 terabytes per well, depending on the length of the underground pipes. That flood of data can be used to optimize drill bit location, enhance subterranean mapping, improve overall production and transportation efficiencies—and predict where the next promising formation lies. Many oil companies are now investing as much in information technology and data analytics as in old-school exploration and production.

And with rigorous data analysis comes another important life lesson: how to take a chill pill. Here’s more from Technology Review:

At the same time, producers have learned when to pause: more than half the cost of shale oil wells comes in the fracking phase, when it’s time to pump pressurized fluids underground to crack open the rock. This is known as well completion, and hundreds of wells in the U.S. are now completion-ready, awaiting a rise in oil prices that will make them economical to pump. Several oil company executives in recent weeks have said that once oil prices rebound to around $65 a barrel (the price was at $64.92 per barrel as of June 1), another wave of production will be unleashed.

We’ll know these fracking companies have gone full-on Silicon Valley when they ditch their old names (Pioneer Natural Resources Co., EOG Resources, etc.) for something a bit more trendy — drlr? FrackIt?

Source:
Big Data Will Keep the Shale Boom Rolling

, MIT Technology Review.

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The fracking industry just got more tech savvy

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Half of Emails Are Answered in 47 Minutes or Less

by CaraEWARpsy Posted on April 14, 2015

Mother Jones

Many people seem to agree that email sucks, and almost as many of us are annoyed by “inbox zero” coworkers telling everybody in earshot how damn productive they are. We get it.

But while we all agree that email is slow, tedious, annoying, and perhaps impersonal, it turns out that many of us are actually pretty decent at returning the messages we need to. According to a new study by the folks at Yahoo Labs on how quickly emails get answered, about 90 percent of emails are returned within a day. In fact, half of emails are answered within 47 minutes, with the most likely return time being just about two minutes. (Of course many of those replies are short, coming in at about five words.)

The study—which, as the largest ever of its kind, analyzed more than 16 billion email messages sent between 2 million (randomized and opt-in) Yahoo! email users over a several month period—went a little deeper than reply times. It also studied how extended email threads play out (the longer the thread, the quicker the replies come until there’s a measurable pause before a concluding message); what time of day is best for getting a long response (morning); and demographics. Teens work the reply button the fastest, with a median reply time of about 13 minutes. Adults 20 to 35 years old came in at about 16 minutes. Adults aged 36 to 50 took about 24 minutes, and “mature” adults, aged 51 and over, took the longest at about 47 minutes. Gender seems to make less of a difference than age, with males replying in about 24 minutes and women taking about 28 (insert joke about women being more thoughtful here).

As you might expect, all those numbers go out the window when an attachment is involved: it takes emailers almost twice the time to respond to messages containing additional files. Another not-so-surprising tidbit from the study suggests that we’re quickest to reply from our phones, then our tablets, and finally our desktops. And predictably the more emails you get, the fewer you actually respond to: the data indicates that people receiving 100 emails a day may answer just five.

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Half of Emails Are Answered in 47 Minutes or Less

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Now you can track just how crazy spring is in your region

by PEACarinzhpby Posted on March 19, 2015

Hot N Cold

Now you can track just how crazy spring is in your region

By on 18 Mar 2015commentsShare

Officially, the first day of spring is whatever Google says it is when one searches “first day of spring.” Scientifically (at least in the U.S.), it’s the day when the center of the sun passes over the equator. And to meteorologists, it’s always March 1 — but that makes everything confusing, so get out of here, meteorologists!

Regardless of the calendar date, the start of spring is that magical time of year when flowers bloom and the sun shines and birds chirp and blah blah blah — except it’s not due to magic at all. Leaves come out and flowers bloom in spring because weather conditions are right. And if weather conditions are altered due to climate change, that means the start of spring could come earlier or later than we’re used to — which could cause problems for, say, the agriculture industry or wildlife management.

Enter “springcasting,”which predicts when spring will start in a given area based on local, real-time weather data. The concept is based on research from University of Wisconsin-Madison geologist Mark D. Schwartz, who studies the correlation between weather conditions and the timing of “leaf-out” (which is exactly what it sounds like) and bloom in certain plants.

This year’s map shows that spring already starting in the South and on the West Coast (stay strong, Northeast!).

Here’s last year’s map:

Ault et. al

If so inclined, citizen scientists can get involved by reporting on the accuracy of the model. Were you told you’d have spring by now, but all you see outside your window is a barren wasteland? Say something! Your feedback could help the scientists improve the model.

Beyond practical applications like helping farmers figure out when to plant their crops, springcasting can also help scientists track climate change and understand its effects on vegetation. In an interview with the University of Wisconsin-Madison news service, Schwartz said that it’s also useful for communicating with the public about climate change:

When I talk to people about change, I can say, for example, that over the Northern hemisphere from the mid-1950s to the early 2000s, the timing of the beginning of spring using my models has gotten earlier by about a week. It’s a very easy thing to explain. It’s something that most people can readily understand.

In case you haven’t Googled it yet, the first day of spring this year is technically Friday. But remember, there’s nothing magical about blooming flowers, so don’t be too jealous of the already-blossoming West Coast (sorry!) if your forecast remains depressing as hell for a while.

Source:
New online tracker allows you to watch spring start

, UWM News.

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Now you can track just how crazy spring is in your region

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Poll: Republicans More Likely Than Dems to Say Vaccinations Should be Parents’ Choice

by OnaCogburn Posted on February 3, 2015

Mother Jones

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According to a new report from the Pew Research Center, vaccine beliefs are divided along party lines. A poll found that 1 out of 3 Republicans and Independents said the decision to vaccinate should be a parent’s choice, compared to 1 out of 5 Democrats.

The poll also found that young adults are more likely than their older counterparts to believe that parents should be able to choose whether to vaccinate a child. An estimated 41 percent of 18-to-29-years olds believed it should be a parent’s decision, compared to just 20 percent of adults 65 years or older.

Some attribute this divide to the fact that Measles have become rare since 1963, when the first Measles vaccine was introduced. In 1958, there were 750,000 cases of the disease. By 1968 this number had fallen to 22,000. By 2000 there were only 86 confirmed Measles cases reported to the CDC. Number stayed low until 2014 when the Center for Disease Control reported an outbreak of more than 600 cases. It was the first spike in a decade and was largely linked to unvaccinated Amish communities in Ohio.

This is Pew’s first report on this question since 2009; however, it is interesting to note that the data was amassed in August 2014—months before the current Measles outbreak that has resulted in more than 100 cases across 14 states.

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Poll: Republicans More Likely Than Dems to Say Vaccinations Should be Parents’ Choice

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