Tag Archives: dtd

Today’s Experiment: Crowdsourcing a Blog Post

Mother Jones

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Over the weekend I was diddling around with some charts because that’s apparently what I do now when I’m trying to take my mind off Donald Trump. Here’s one I did that never made it into a post because it didn’t seem to show anything interesting:

So let’s crowdsource this post. What’s interesting or unexpected about this chart? Anything? There sure is a big drop in the number of people getting education degrees.

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Today’s Experiment: Crowdsourcing a Blog Post

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Swamp Watch – 13 December 2016

Mother Jones

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Hold the presses! Cathy McMorris Rodgers will not be our next Secretary of the Interior. Instead, it will be Rep. Ryan Zinke (R–Mont.). The Washington Post explains what happened:

While Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) was a leading contender for the Interior post in recent days, Zinke hit it off with Trump’s oldest son, Don Jr., an avid hunter, and met personally with the president-elect on Monday in New York City.

Okey doke.

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Swamp Watch – 13 December 2016

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If Obamacare Is Repealed, 3 Million With Pre-Existing Conditions Will Instantly Lose Health Care

Mother Jones

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The Kaiser Family Foundation estimates that 52 million Americans have pre-existing conditions. How many of these are in the individual insurance market? “In 2015, about 8% of the non-elderly population had individual market insurance. Over a several-year period, however, a much larger share may seek individual market coverage.”

So let’s say 10 percent as a conservative round number. That’s 5 million people. Since Obamacare requires insurers to cover these people—and this is something Republicans can’t repeal—they will still have access to coverage even if other parts of Obamacare are repealed. However, there will be no subsidies, and the price of insurance will likely be high since this population skews older. At a rough guess, probably around 3 million of these people will be unable to afford insurance.

The full disaster of an Obamacare repeal goes far beyond this, of course, but it’s worth keeping this tidbit in mind. Once Obamacare’s subsidies are repealed, it’s likely that 3 million people with expensive pre-existing conditions will be instantly tossed out of the health care system, unable to get insurance and unable to afford proper care. And that’s just the beginning.

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If Obamacare Is Repealed, 3 Million With Pre-Existing Conditions Will Instantly Lose Health Care

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Apparently the World Just Wants the Trains to Run on Time

Mother Jones

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I seriously don’t have the courage to click on this link, so I’ll just share the tweet:

Looking for a silver lining? The US is moving toward authoritarianism slower than the other countries. And Germany, which has some recent experience with this sort of thing, remains pretty committed to elections and so forth.

Then again, Russia, Spain, and China have some recent experience with authoritarian governments too, and that’s not stopping them from losing faith in democracy.

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Apparently the World Just Wants the Trains to Run on Time

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Trump Promises Revenge on Companies He Doesn’t Like

Mother Jones

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This popped up in my Twitter feed this morning:

This is totally true. Yesterday I noted that Bernie Sanders had urged Trump to deny federal contracts to companies that move jobs overseas, calling it a massive abuse of power. I got some pushback on that, along the lines of “Why shouldn’t a president stand up for American workers?”

Well, a president should. But a president shouldn’t personally punish companies that do things he doesn’t like. I hope that requires no explanation. Now, if Congress passes a law banning federal contracts for companies that engage in some specified form of job offshoring, that would be different. It would almost certainly be a very bad law, but I’m pretty sure it would be constitutional. And if it allowed the executive branch a certain amount of discretion in enforcing the law, then Trump could take advantage of that.

I would not recommend doing this. But it would be legal. Until then, however, it wouldn’t be. And it would be wrong. Let’s not encourage Trump to think of himself as any more of a mafia kingpin than he already does.

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Trump Promises Revenge on Companies He Doesn’t Like

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Ron Wyden Thinks We All Deserve the Truth About Russian Election Interference

Mother Jones

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This is a helluva tease:

That’s all the Democrats on the Senate Intelligence Committee except Dianne Feinstein, who joined all the Republicans in apparently not wanting this to be made public. That’s quite a partisan divide in a mostly nonpartisan committee. I wonder what it’s all about?

The ball’s in your court, President Obama. To quote our president-elect: at this point, what the hell do you have to lose?

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Ron Wyden Thinks We All Deserve the Truth About Russian Election Interference

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Fidel Castro Died

Mother Jones

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Fidel Castro—not a very nice person!—is dead.

It is unclear at this time if he was killed by an exploding cigar lit by JFK’s ghost. I’m going to assume he wasn’t and that he probably died of natural causes. But you know what they say about assume-ing! “It makes asses out of you and me“…

Miami is going to be lit tomorrow.

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Fidel Castro Died

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Let’s Figure Out What Happened Before We Start the Purges

Mother Jones

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Shorter Kelly Kleiman: Before Democrats devolve into internecine warfare, let’s actually figure out what happened on Tuesday. Was it a whitelash? Sulky Bernie supporters? Lack of enthusiasm from blacks and Latinos? Voter suppression? Right now, we’re flying blind, with only some crude data from exit polls and a few first attempts to make sense of the county-level data.

I’ll add one thing: whatever the answer turns out to be, it’s going to involve a shift of only a few percentage points. Everyone should be careful not to draw overly sweeping conclusions from this, even if it does make for good clickbait.

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Let’s Figure Out What Happened Before We Start the Purges

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"Spirit Cooking" Explained for the Non-Insane

Mother Jones

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When I got home from lunch this afternoon, I switched on my tablet to see if anything had happened while I was away. I got this:

If you see a reference to “Spirit Cooking” anywhere, this is what it’s all about. Apparently conservatives have lost whatever few marbles they had left.

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"Spirit Cooking" Explained for the Non-Insane

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Weekly Poll Update: The Race Has Tightened Slightly, But Clinton Is Still Comfortably Ahead

Mother Jones

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Let’s get our final weekly polling update out of the way early. Here’s Pollster:

Clinton is 6.1 percentage points ahead of Trump, down a point from last week. In the generic House polling, Pollster has Democrats ahead by 3.4 points, also down a point from last week. Sam Wang’s meta-margin has Hillary Clinton leading Trump by 2.6 percentage points, down a point and a half from last week:

Wang’s current prediction is that Clinton has a 99 percent chance of winning and will rack up 312 electoral votes. He still has the Senate tied, 50-50, with the probability of Democratic control at 76 percent. On the House side, he has Democrats up by about 3 percent, which is not enough for them to win back control.

Overall, it continues to look like Hillary Clinton will win by 4-5 points, with my personal 95 percent confidence range at 3-6 points. The Senate will either be tied 50-50 or Democrats will win 51-49. Either way, they’ll control the Senate. The House will remain in Republican hands. Whether those hands are Paul Ryan’s or someone else’s remains to be seen.

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Weekly Poll Update: The Race Has Tightened Slightly, But Clinton Is Still Comfortably Ahead

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