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Chart of the Day: China’s Debt Bubble Continues to Swell

by CeliaHdack Posted on March 14, 2014

Mother Jones

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Via Paul Krugman, Atif Mian and Amir Sufi give us the chart below today to chew over. It shows China’s declining trade surplus over the past decade, which authorities have effectively offset by a dramatic increase in private credit in order to boost domestic demand. The authors explain how this happened:

China got a break starting 2003….The rest of the world — and in particular the United States — was willing to borrow hundreds of billions of dollars every year to purchase Chinese goods (among other things)….The result was reduced pressure on domestic debt creation, and domestic debt went down from 125% of GDP in 2003 to almost 100% of GDP in 2008.

….The continued borrowing by western countries was not sustainable and by 2008 global demand for Chinese goods collapsed….How could China create new demand for its productive capacity? The answer once again came in the form of a rapid rise in domestic private debt. The Chinese state-owned banks with explicit prodding from the government opened their spigots. The country has seen an explosive growth in domestic private debt since 2008.

Is this sustainable? Probably not. It’s yet another reason to be concerned about the continued fragility of the global economy. We’re probably not strong enough to withstand a major shock from China.

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Chart of the Day: China’s Debt Bubble Continues to Swell

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Superstorm Sandy washed away half of Fire Island’s sand

by apitjwdu Posted on August 29, 2013

Superstorm Sandy washed away half of Fire Island’s sand

By

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Cleaning up Fire Island after Hurricane Sandy.

It was obvious to locals that Fire Island, N.Y. — Long Island’s longest barrier island — lost a lot of sand during Superstorm Sandy. And now federal scientists have quantified the staggering loss: 54.4 percent.

The researchers warn that the disappearance of more than half of the island’s sand dunes and beachfront sand has left the tourist mecca more vulnerable to further storms and floods.

During winter storms that followed Sandy, the shoreline on the exposed island was sucked back a further 200 feet in one place, though most of the sand lost during those smaller storms washed back into place by April. Much of the sand lost during the superstorm, by contrast, is still missing.

From the U.S. Geological Survey report [PDF]:

Hurricane Sandy profoundly impacted the morphology of Fire Island and resulted in an extremely low elevation, low relief configuration that has left the barrier island vulnerable to future storms. The coastal system subsequently began to show signs of recovery, and although the beach is likely to experience continued recovery in the form of volume gains, the dunes will take years to rebuild. Events such as Sandy result in a coastal environment that is more vulnerable to future storm impacts, but they are an important natural process of barrier islands that allow these systems to evolve in response to sea-level rise.

The vast majority of the sand that Sandy purloined from Fire Island was washed offshore, where it is currently of little use to East Coasters eager for protection from future storm surges. The researchers calculated that just 14 percent drifted inland toward other area shorelines.

Randy Levine

Fire Island in July

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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Superstorm Sandy washed away half of Fire Island’s sand

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They’ll say whatever it takes

by Posted on May 23, 2013

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They’ll say whatever it takes

Posted 23 May 2013 in

National

Today, the American Petroleum Institute gathered reporters on a conference call to try and escape blame for what are sure to be record-high gas prices this summer. And while this event was full of API’s typical misdirection, one particular claim stood out to us – that compliance with the Renewable Fuel Standard will cause gasoline prices to increase by 30 percent in 2015. This could not be further from the truth.

The RFS and its associated “RIN credits” have not been a factor in higher retail gasoline prices, according to a new analysis conducted by Informa Economics, Inc. In fact, the study found ethanol costs significantly less than gasoline at the wholesale level and is reducing pump prices for consumers across the country.

Underlying API’s claims about the RFS is the idea that there’s a “blend wall” preventing the wider adoption of E15 renewable fuel (which happens to be the DoE’s most extensively tested fuel, ever). Back when the RFS was first passed, oil companies who supported the law effectively pledged to invest in the infrastructure necessary to bring E15 to our gas pumps. But now that they see renewable fuel as viable competition, they’ve done everything in their power to prevent its adoption. That means engaging in frivolous lawsuits, fabricating safety concerns about E15 and discouraging franchisees from carrying the fuel.

The oil companies don’t want to blend more renewable fuel into gasoline because it hurts their bottom line. In fact, it cost them (and saved you) $50 billion in 2012, so it’s no surprise they’re doing what they can to squash the competition. So who benefits from renewable fuel? You do, in the form of lower gas prices, reduced carbon emissions and increased national security. The choice should be clear.

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They’ll say whatever it takes

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Gas fracked in America will help keep the British warm

by HartkePoundstone568 Posted on March 29, 2013

Gas fracked in America will help keep the British warm

By John Upton

Shutterstock

/ Evgeny MurtolaFracked American gas will soon warm quaint British homes.

America’s fracking boom is producing so much natural gas that the energy industry plans to start exporting enough of it to heat nearly 2 million British homes.

A $15 billion deal to export vast volumes of natural gas from the United States by tanker ship to the U.K. was struck between energy companies Cheniere and Centrica. It will help keep the British warm, but it adds a new layer of controversy to disputes over fracking in the U.S.

From The Guardian:

Under the deal, Centrica will pay £10bn over 20 years for 89bn cubic feet of gas annually — enough to heat 1.8m homes — from Cheniere, one of the first US companies to receive clearance from the federal government to export shale gas in the form of LNG (liquefied natural gas). The first deliveries, by tanker, are expected in 2018.

The announcement of the deal comes at a crucial time, as Britain’s gas reserves have been severely depleted by the unseasonable cold snap, which has increased demand. Last week, it emerged that there were only two days’ worth of gas left in storage.

British Prime Minister David Cameron is jolly pleased to join in on wanton plunder and pollution of American land. ”I warmly welcome this commercial agreement,” he said.

Americans living near fracked lands and forced to buy their water in bottles certainly hope that your people enjoy that warmth, Mr. Prime Minister.

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Gas fracked in America will help keep the British warm

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Permafrost is even less perma than we thought

by marinavhunt Posted on February 22, 2013

Permafrost is even less perma than we thought

By Susie Cagle

Hey, so, about that layer of long-frozen soil covering almost a quarter of the Northern Hemisphere’s land surface? You know, the stuff that’s started melting and freaking out climate scientists but often isn’t calculated into global warming metrics?

U.N./Christopher Arp

Near Alaska, a chunk of permafrost breaks off into the Arctic Ocean.

Yeah, so, uh, according to a new study published this week in the journal Science, that may be melting way faster than we thought. From Climate Central:

If global average temperature were to rise another 2.5°F (1.5°C), say earth scientist Anton Vaks of Oxford University, and an international team of collaborators, permafrost across much of northern Canada and Siberia could start to weaken and decay. And since climate scientists project at least that much warming by the middle of the 21st century, global warming could begin to accelerate as a result, in what’s known as a feedback mechanism. …

[E]nvironmental scientist Rose Cory, of the University of North Carolina, focused on sites in Alaska where melting permafrost has caused the soil to collapse into sinkholes or landslides. The soil exposed in this way is “baked” by sunlight, and said Cory in a press release, “(it) makes carbon better food for bacteria.”

In fact, she said, exposed organic matter releases about 40 percent more carbon, in the form of CO2 or methane, than soil that stays buried. “What that means,” Cory said, “ is that if all that stored carbon is released, exposed to sunlight and consumed by bacteria, it could double the amount of this potent greenhouse gas going into the environment.”

Permafrost that’s been frozen for hundreds of thousands of years is already starting to melt in the Arctic, not just raising global temps but also razing towns. Y’all up there in the Yukon may consider a move to an ironically warmer area, preferably on high ground. The rest of us will just cower in fear in place.

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Anti-Agenda 21 bill is back in Arizona, wants to eat your brains

by anjunonstennyao Posted on February 6, 2013

Anti-Agenda 21 bill is back in Arizona, wants to eat your brains

By Susie Cagle

Charles A. Nesci

Which state is valiant and insane enough to lead the fight against the United Nations’ blueprint for a more sustainable world, i.e. those vile and dangerous plans for global social control community gardens and bike paths known as Agenda 21? Yes, it’s wild, libertarian, sprawly, water-importing Arizona!

Last May, less insane heads managed to prevail in the Grand Canyon State, shooting down a bill that would have prohibited state and local governments from adopting anything even a little bit related to sustainability and Agenda 21. But the idea has crawled out of the grave in the form of SB 1403 [PDF], a new bill that would prohibit any local government in Arizona from implementing any “creed, doctrine, principles or any tenet” of Agenda 21.

“Any way you want to describe it, Agenda 21 is a direct attack on the middle class and the working poor,” the bill’s sponsor Sen. Judy Burges said during a hearing on it in 2012. “The primary goal of Agenda 21 is to create social engineering of our citizens and it will impact every aspect of our daily lives.”

Or not at all. In fact, Agenda 21 calls for helping poor people and the environment both. Too bad it’s been sitting around gathering dust for 20ish years!

But speaking of social engineering, Arizona is also looking at a bill that would allow teachers to tell kids that climate change is but a fairy tale! Suddenly I’m not so worried about their bike lanes.

Not even sure what it’s like to live in this crazy place? Here an Arizona community meeting freaks out about both of those things. (Bonus smooth jazz soundtrack. You’re welcome.)

For extra fun, local Sierra Vista, Arizona residents can check out the “Agenda 21 and the Threat to State Sovereignty” presentation next week, presented by the Tea Party and two of the state legislature’s consultants. $5 admission at the door, BYO tin-foil hat.

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Anti-Agenda 21 bill is back in Arizona, wants to eat your brains

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