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Nothing Hillary Clinton Says This Week Matters

Mother Jones

For the love of God, can everyone please stop chattering about whether Hillary Clinton’s latest minuscule miscue is going to be a huge problem for her if she runs for president? Is there truly nothing else to write about?

The correct answer is: no, it will not be a problem. You know why? Because it’s June 2014. The election is scheduled for November 2016. That’s it.

Now can we all move on? I think I’ve only read about 20 explainers today on the path forward for the US at the World Cup. That’s probably not enough, so how about writing a couple dozen more?

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Nothing Hillary Clinton Says This Week Matters

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Supreme Court Strikes Down EPA Interpretation of Clean Air Act

Mother Jones

A few years ago, the EPA added carbon dioxide to an established program that limits emissions of harmful pollutants. But there was a problem: the Clean Air Act says that permits are required by any source that emits more than 250 tons of a covered pollutant. Because CO2 is such a common gas, this would have forced tens of thousands of small sources to go through an expensive and pointless permitting process, something EPA wanted to avoid. So, for CO2 only, they unilaterally changed the threshold to 100,000 tons per year. This exempted most large businesses, but it also gave critics an opening to challenge the law. Today they won:

The Supreme Court, in a split ruling, has blocked the Obama administration from requiring special permits for some new power plants, but upheld them for others. In a dense 5-4 decision Monday, the justices said the Environmental Protection Agency had wrongly stretched an anti-pollution provision of the Clean Air Act to cover carbon emissions in new or modified plants.

But the ruling was confined to only one regulatory provision, and it is not likely to directly affect the broader climate-change policy that the administration announced earlier this month. That policy relies on a different part of the law that says states must take steps to reduce harmful air pollutants, which include greenhouse gases.

This doesn’t affect the EPA’s recent proposal that would limit CO2 emissions from power plants, since that relies on a different provision of the Clean Air Act that’s already been blessed by the Supreme Court. However, today’s ruling is a demonstration of something I’ve mentioned before: When an executive agency modifies the way it interprets a law, it’s a fairly routine affair. Interpretations of federal statutes, especially complex regulatory constructions, are notoriously difficult, and agencies do it all the time. There’s no presidential “lawlessness” or “tyranny” involved, and disputes over these interpretations are routinely resolved by courts. In this case, it was obviously a close call, since the decision was 5-4 and the opinion was long and dense.

This is what’s likely to happen in other cases where the Obama administration has interpreted a law in ways that his critics don’t like. If the critics are serious, they’ll go to court, and in some cases they’ll win. In others, they’ll lose. Welcome to the 21st century.

UPDATE: I wrote this hastily because—and I know you’re going to love this excuse—a temporary crown fell out and I had to pop out to my dentist to get it re-cemented. But now that I’m back, it’s worth pointing out that today’s Supreme Court decision actually upheld most of the EPA’s new limitations on CO2 emissions. The main reason I highlighted the one piece they struck down was because I wanted to make a point about presidential “lawlessness” that’s become such a talking point on the right these days. In the case of the 250-ton rule, the EPA tried to reinterpret the law and the court ruled against them. Other interpretations were upheld. That’s the way this stuff goes.

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Supreme Court Strikes Down EPA Interpretation of Clean Air Act

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Friday Cat Blogging – 20 June 2014

Mother Jones

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Unless you’re down in Rio watching the World Cup, tomorrow marks the beginning of summer. And you know what that means: lots of snoozing in the sunshine for Domino. Yesterday she got a head start, seeking out sunny spots in the garden that are free from the evil mockingbirds. Not that she really cares about them. They can mock away and she just yawns. I think they’ve even given up their dive-bombing routine since Domino so obviously poses no threat to their lifestyle. Mankind may have fallen centuries ago, but here at Casa Drum the critters live in a state of prelapsarian laziness.

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Friday Cat Blogging – 20 June 2014

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Low Inflation Continues to Disappoint Inflation Hawks

Mother Jones

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Perhaps you’ve read that inflation is up recently. Last night, for example, NBC News breathlessly told me that the price of eggs had gone up 13 cents over the past year. Does this mean that the inflation worries we’ve been hearing about continuously for the past four years are finally coming true?

I’d be happy if they were, since I think higher inflation would do the economy some good. Sadly, though, inflation remains well anchored. Despite the higher numbers of the past two months, the Fed’s latest projections have increased by….one tenth of a percentage point. Or, if you take the average of their range, by one twentieth of a percentage point, from 1.55 percent to 1.6 percent.

And how about 2015? They’re projecting 1.75 percent. And 2016? A whopping 1.8 percent. In other words, they believe that we’ll continue to undershoot our inflation target for at least the next three years.

At the same time, their projection of GDP growth has plummeted from 2.9 percent to 2.2 percent. And their projections for 2015 and 2016 continue to hover around an anemic 3 percent.

So: we have low growth, low price inflation, low wage inflation, and unemployment is still high. This is really not an environment in which spending cuts and lower deficits are the answer. More here from Mark Thoma.

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Low Inflation Continues to Disappoint Inflation Hawks

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It’s Time to Acknowledge Reality: Obamacare is Working Pretty Well

Mother Jones

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A new paper concludes that “rate shock” under Obamacare has been generally more modest than we thought:

Using data from the Current Population Survey, we find that the average prices increased by 14 to 28 percent, with similar changes in California and the federal exchange states; we attribute the increase primarily to higher premiums in exchanges associated with insurer expectations of a higher risk population being enrolled.

This doesn’t take into account federal subsidies, which would lower this number even further. What’s more, rates most likely would have gone up about 10 percent even if Obamacare had never existed. Taken together, this suggests that the average premium increase thanks to Obamacare has been very small. And of course, that small increase buys you a policy that in most cases is considerably more robust than older policies.

In related news, HHS reports that people who qualify for tax credits are paying an average of $82 per month for their policies. This is roughly a fourth of what they’d pay without subsidies. The chart on the right shows how this breaks down: more than two-thirds of those who qualify for subsidies are paying less than $100 per month. Fewer than 20 percent are paying more than $150. In a nutshell, then, we now know that (a) the system works, (b) enrollment targets were largely met, and (c) health insurance under Obamacare is pretty affordable. Matt Yglesias explains what this means:

These three factors together should end the phony war over Obamacare and let the real debate begin — not the debate over whether the program “works” but the debate over whether economic resources should be devoted to providing health insurance to people at the bottom of the income distribution or to providing tax cuts to people at the top.

….Obamacare is a large-scale effort to improve living standards for people in the bottom half of the income distribution by giving them additional economic resources. One of America’s political parties doesn’t like that idea in any non-health context and they don’t like it for health care either. They think the money it costs to provide those subsidies should be taken away, and it should be given to high-income households in the form of tax cuts.

This is an excellent and important policy debate to have. One of the great ideological issues not just of our time and place, but of democratic politics across eras and countries. Should economic resources be distributed more equally or less equally?

Yep. It’s time to stop arguing over minutiae. Fundamentally, Obamacare “works.” It’s not perfect, but after nine months we can now say that it does indeed provide health coverage to the poor and the working-class in a reasonably efficient manner, and it does this largely by a combination of taxing and/or reducing payments to the relatively well off.

I think this is a good idea. Republicans don’t. But this, rather than the cacophony of nonsense we’ve been subjected to over the past several years, is what we should be arguing about.

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It’s Time to Acknowledge Reality: Obamacare is Working Pretty Well

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Has Hillary Clinton Evolved on Foreign Policy?

Mother Jones

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In Hard Choices, Hillary Clinton says she disagreed with President Obama about the drawdown in Afghanistan; about arming Syrian rebels; and about getting tougher with Vladimir Putin. (She also thought we should have supported Hosni Mubarak more consistently and should have taken a softer line with the Israelis.)

At the same time, she also acknowledges that she made the wrong call on Iraq. This prompts an obvious question: Has the disaster in Iraq changed her approach to foreign policy at all? Presumably the answer is yes. At least, I hope it is. If the Iraq debacle doesn’t change your mind, what would?

And this prompts a second question: Are there any concrete cases from the past few years in which her approach was less hawkish than it would have been a decade ago? Can she name one example where the Hillary of 2002 would have recommended intervention but the Hillary of 2009-12 recommended caution?

Maybe I’m wrong, but it strikes me that the answer is no. This is one of the reasons that Democrats need more primary choices in 2016. I’ve never really had anything against Hillary Clinton, but I’m hesitant about nominating someone who, as near as I can tell, acknowledges poor judgment on Iraq but hasn’t let that actually change her views on much of anything. Maybe at her next town hall meeting, we could skip the endless nonsense about Benghazi, “dead broke,” evolution on gay marriage, and so forth, and instead ask whether her foreign policy views have changed at all since 9/11. I’m not a huge fan of all of Barack Obama’s foreign policy choices, but the more I hear from everyone else—including Hillary Clinton—the more I appreciate even the modest restraint that he’s demonstrated. It’s apparently a rare thing.

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Has Hillary Clinton Evolved on Foreign Policy?

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Why Is the Abortion Rate Down Since 2008?

Mother Jones

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National Review‘s Michael New is unhappy with Guttmacher’s latest report on the abortion rate:

Last week, the Guttmacher Institute released an analysis of the recent decline in the incidence of abortion. Overall, the abortion rate declined by an impressive 13 percent between 2008 and 2011 and reached its lowest level since 1973. This Guttmacher analysis joins a chorus of pundits — including Andrew Sullivan — who were quick to credit contraception for this decline in the abortion rate. And like most Guttmacher studies, this analysis is quick to downplay pro-life laws and other pro-life efforts.

…There is less than meets the eye here, however. The author finds that fewer women under 30 at risk for an unintended pregnancy were forgoing contraception. Yet the decline was slight — only three percentage points.

…The author makes a fair point that the abortion decline was fairly consistent throughout the country….However, the study presents a false dichotomy between either crediting legislation or crediting contraceptives for the falling abortion numbers….The link between abortion attitudes and abortion incidence is not well documented. That said, the shift in public opinion is still worth considering.

Well, look: the abortion rate in America has been steadily declining since 1973. Trying to figure out why it dropped specifically between 2008 and 2011 is a mug’s game. There’s just nothing unusual going on that even requires an explanation. It’s true that the post-1973 decline continued at a rate that was slightly higher than before—but so slightly that it’s just as likely to be statistical noise as anything else.

Both sides should probably stand down in the face of the long-term evidence. Most likely, neither contraceptives nor state laws nor public opinion played a substantial role that was any different from the role they’ve played since 1973. Over the long term, there’s less teen pregnancy, more use of contraceptives, and, as near as I can tell, barely any change in public opinion at all. Beyond that, who knows?

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Why Is the Abortion Rate Down Since 2008?

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Your clothes dryer is a huge energy waster

All wet

Your clothes dryer is a huge energy waster

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Buy a new major appliance today and it’ll be a lot more energy efficient than what was on the market 20 or 30 years ago. Unless, that is, you’re buying a dryer.

The Natural Resources Defense Council on Thursday put out an issue brief and call to action regarding money- and energy-wasting clothes dryers. While manufacturers have boosted the efficiency of washing machines, refrigerators, and other appliances in recent decades, their enthusiasm for doing the same thing for dryers has been damp at best. Dryers remain so energy hungry that even a new one can consume as much electricity as an efficient new clothes washer, refrigerator, and dishwasher combined.

NRDCClick to embiggen.

NRDC concluded that Americans spend $9 billion a year on the electricity used to dry their clothes. If their dryers were all upgraded to the best models available in Europe, Australia, and Asia, those costs would drop by $4 billion. And because most of the nation’s electricity still comes from fossil fuels, those upgrades would keep 16 million tons of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere every year. Here are some highlights from the findings:

There are 89 million residential clothes dryers in the United States (75 percent electric models, 25 percent natural gas). Although electric dryers dominate the U.S. market, natural gas dryers typically cost 50 percent to 75 percent less to operate.

A typical household pays over $100 in annual utility bills to operate an electric dryer and $40 for a gas dryer. Homes with electric dryers pay at least $1,500 over the dryer’s lifetime for the electricity to power the machine. …

U.S. policies for clothes dryers lag behind those for other appliances. …

How a consumer uses a dryer is almost as important as which dryer is purchased. Choosing a lower operating temperature can slow the drying process a little, but it cuts energy use significantly. Stopping the dryer before all of the clothes are bone-dry saves time and energy, while reducing wrinkles and helping clothes last longer.

Of course, a brighter solution for reducing the costs and climate impacts of drying clothes is out there, just blowing in the wind.


Source
A Call to Action for More Efficient Clothes Dryers, NRDC

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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Your clothes dryer is a huge energy waster

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Jane Kleeb vs. the Keystone Pipeline

An environmental activist has organized an unlikely group to protest the project: Nebraska ranchers and farmers. Read this article: Jane Kleeb vs. the Keystone Pipeline ; ;Related ArticlesMatter: When Predators Vanish, So Does the EcosystemCalifornia Wildfires Spread Across Hills, Leveling HomesFire Season Starts Early, and Fiercely ;

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Jane Kleeb vs. the Keystone Pipeline

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Insane wildfires arrive months early in SoCal, threaten nuke plant

the violent crackle of global warming

Insane wildfires arrive months early in SoCal, threaten nuke plant

Reuters/Sam HodgsonFirefighters battle the Poinsettia Fire in Carlsbad, Calif., on May 14, 2014.

Drought-parched Southern California has erupted in flames, months before the state’s fire season used to normally begin. The fires threaten homes and schools – and a shuttered nuclear power plant.

More than 20,000 people were evacuated from their homes on Wednesday as wildfires tore through the San Diego area, where temperatures today could hit 106 degrees. From The Christian Science Monitor:

For many Californians, the wildfire season has settled into expectation and habit. But this year, the highly flammable combination of record heat, the seasonal Santa Ana winds, and lack of rain are exacerbating the problem and producing severe fire conditions several months ahead of the usual fire season.

California fire, civic, and police officials up and down the state are admonishing residents that more could be on the way with the state’s worst drought in a century and blistering Santa Ana winds resulting in some of the hottest May temperatures since record-keeping began in 1896. …

Funds and firefighters are exhausted with the relentless pace of the state’s 1,244 wildfires this year — already triple the state average — and US Interior Department officials are predicting no letup.

San Diego appears to be the hardest hit with at least nine different fires that have forced the closing of California State University at San Marcos and the San Diego Unified School District. At least 10,000 acres have burned, along with dozens of homes.

Some of the fires threaten the San Onofre nuclear plant, which was shuttered following radioactive leaks in 2012. The plant evacuated 13 non-essential employees yesterday.

The violent crackling sounds plaguing Southern California right now are what global warming sounds like, and the odor of the noxious smoke is what it smells like. These are the kinds of fires that are becoming more frequent as the climate changes, particularly in the American West, which is maxing out already-stretched firefighting budgets.


Source
California wildfires set relentless pace months before typical season, The Christian Science Monitor

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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Insane wildfires arrive months early in SoCal, threaten nuke plant

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