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Here Are 5 Infuriating Examples of Facts Making People Dumber

The notorious “backfire effect” has now been captured in multiple studies. Alex E. Proimos/Wikimedia Commons On Monday, I reported on the latest study to take a bite out of the idea of human rationality. In a paper just published in Pediatrics, Brendan Nyhan of Dartmouth and his colleagues showed that presenting people with information confirming the safety of vaccines triggered a “backfire effect,” in which people who already distrusted vaccines actually became less likely to say they would vaccinate their kids. Unfortunately, this is hardly the only example of such a frustrating response being documented by researchers. Nyhan and his co-author Jason Reifler of the University of Exeter have captured several others, as have other researchers. Here are some examples: 1. Tax Cuts Increase Revenue? In a 2010 study, Nyhan and Reifler asked people to read a fake newspaper article containing a real quotation of George W. Bush, in which the former president asserted that his tax cuts “helped increase revenues to the Treasury.” In some versions of the article, this false claim was then debunked by economic evidence: A correction appended to the end of the article stated that in fact, the Bush tax cuts “were followed by an unprecedented three-year decline in nominal tax revenues, from $2 trillion in 2000 to $1.8 trillion in 2003.” The study found that conservatives who read the correction were twice as likely to believe Bush’s claim was true as were conservatives who did not read the correction. 2. Death Panels! Another notorious political falsehood is Sarah Palin’s claim that Obamacare would create “death panels.” To test whether they could undo the damage caused by this highly influential morsel of misinformation, Nyhan and his colleagues had study subjects read an article about the “death panels” claim, which in some cases ended with a factual correction explaining that “nonpartisan health care experts have concluded that Palin is wrong.” Among survey respondents who were very pro-Palin and who had a high level of political knowledge, the correction actually made them more likely to wrongly embrace the false “death panels” theory. 3. Obama is a Muslim! And if that’s still not enough, yet another Nyhan and Reifler study examined the persistence of the “President Obama is a Muslim” myth. In this case, respondents watched a video of President Obama denying that he is a Muslim or even stating affirmatively, “I am a Christian.” Once again, the correction—uttered in this case by the president himself—often backfired in the study, making belief in the falsehood that Obama is a Muslim worse among certain study participants. What’s more, the backfire effect was particularly notable when the researchers administering the study were white. When they were non-white, subjects were more willing to change their minds, an effect the researchers explained by noting that “social desirability concerns may affect how respondents behave when asked about sensitive topics.” In other words, in the company of someone from a different race than their own, people tend to shift their responses based upon what they think that person’s worldview might be. 4. The Alleged Iraq-Al Qaeda Link. In a 2009 study, Monica Prasad of Northwestern University and her colleagues directly challenged Republican partisans about their false belief that Iraq and Al Qaeda collaborated in the 9/11 attacks, a common charge during the Bush years. The so-called challenge interviews included citing the findings of the 9/11 Commission and even a statement by George W. Bush, asserting that his administration had “never said that the 9/11 attacks were orchestrated between Saddam and Al Qaeda.” Despite these facts, only one out of 49 partisans changed his or her mind after the factual correction. Forty-one of the partisans “deflected” the information in a variety of ways, and 7 actually denied holding the belief in the first place (although they clearly had). 5. Global Warming. On the climate issue, there does not appear to be any study that clearly documents a backfire effect. However, in a 2011 study, researchers at American University and Ohio State found a closely related “boomerang effect.” In the experiment, research subjects from upstate New York read news articles about how climate change might increase the spread of West Nile Virus, which were accompanied by the pictures of the faces of farmers who might be affected. But in one case, the people were said to be farmers in upstate New York (in other words, victims who were quite socially similar to the research subjects); in the other, they were described as farmers from either Georgia or from France (much more distant victims). The intent of the article was to raise concern about the health consequences of climate change, but when Republicans read the article about the more distant farmers, their support for action on climate change decreased, a pattern that was stronger as their Republican partisanship increased. (When Republicans read about the proximate, New York farmers, there was no boomerang effect, but they did not become more supportive of climate action either.) Together, all of these studies support the theory of “motivated reasoning”: The idea that our prior beliefs, commitments, and emotions drive our responses to new information, such that when we are faced with facts that deeply challenge these commitments, we fight back against them to defend our identities. So next time you feel the urge to argue back against some idiot on the Internet…pause, take a deep breath, and realize not only that arguing might not do any good, but that in fact, it might very well backfire. View original:  Here Are 5 Infuriating Examples of Facts Making People Dumber ; ;Related ArticlesCitizen Scientists: Now You Can Link the UK Winter Deluge To Climate ChangeA World of Water, Seen From SpaceLow-Lying Islands Are Going To Drown, so Should we Even Bother Trying To Save Their Ecosystems? ;

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Here Are 5 Infuriating Examples of Facts Making People Dumber

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A World of Water, Seen From Space

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Space agencies across the planet launch the most ambitious plan yet to understand how the world’s water works. The GPM Core satellite launches from Japan on Thursday, February 27. Bill Ingalls/NASA. Late last week, from a launch pad at the Tanegashima Space Center in southern Japan, a rocket shot toward space. Nestled inside it was an amalgam of solar arrays and communications equipment and propulsion instruments, all of them cobbled together in the utilitarian-chic manner favored by aerospace engineers—one more satellite for the growing constellation of man-made objects sent to orbit, and observe, the Earth. NASA calls this latest satellite the Global Precipitation Measurement Core Observatory. I propose we call it, to make things simpler for ourselves, “Core.” Core is, technically, a weather satellite, built to observe the workings of the Earth from beyond its bounds. But it’s more complex than a traditional satellite: Core gets its name from the fact that it is the central unit in a network of nine satellites studded across the exterior perimeter of the Earth, contributed to the cause by various countries and space agencies. Their job? To analyze the planet’s water, from beyond the planet. The Global Precipitation Measurement project, with Core as its central piece of orbiting infrastructure, will provide observations of the world’s snowfall and rainfall and cloud patterns, across a network, at three-hour intervals. Read the rest at The Atlantic.

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A World of Water, Seen From Space

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A World of Water, Seen From Space

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No, GMOs Won’t Harm Your Health

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Dr. Steven Novella argues that many of the fears surrounding genetically modified crops are unsupported. venturecx/Thinkstock With historic drought battering California’s produce and climate change expected to jeopardize the global food supply, there are few questions more important than what our agriculture system should look like in the future. And few agricultural issues are more politically charged than the debate over genetically modified organisms. Even as companies like Monsanto are genetically engineering plants to use less water and resist crop-destroying pests, activists are challenging the safety and sustainability of GM foods. For this week’s episode of Inquiring Minds, I spoke with Dr. Steven Novella, a neurologist at Yale University. Novella is a prominent voice in the skeptical movement, a scientific movement that, as he describes it, focuses heavily on explaining the truth behind “common myths—things that people believe that aren’t true.” So I asked him to help sort out fact from fiction when it comes to industrial agriculture in general—and GMOs in particular. “Almost everything I hear about [industrial agriculture] is a myth,” says Novella. “It’s such an emotional issue—a highly ideological and politicized issue—that what I find is that most of what people write and say and believe about it just fits into some narrative, some worldview. And it’s not very factual or evidence-based.” So where does Novella think the public is misinformed? One myth concerns the novelty of GM foods. Many people think that modifying genes in our food is a 21st-century phenomenon, but according to Novella, humans have been using selective breeding to create more desirable versions of plants and animals for thousands of years. In fact, it was a lone monk, Gregor Mendel, who in the 1800s discovered the laws of inheritance and launched the science of genetics by crossbreeding pea plants. And there are even more questionable genetic modification practices that aren’t subject to anywhere near the same scrutiny as GM foods. Novella points to the increasing popularity of “mutation breeding,” in which chemicals and radiation are used to increase the rate of plant mutations in order to produce favorable traits. “Over 2,000 plants that are the product of this mutation breeding have been released to the public in the last 100 years,” explains Novella. Another important myth surrounding GM foods is that they are somehow unsafe for human consumption. There are two broad types of genetically modified organisms: transgenic and cisgenic. Cisgenic modification occurs between closely related plants—something that might have happened more “naturally” through crossbreeding. Transgenic modification involves transferring genes across disparate species, or even kingdoms—impossible if left to Mother Nature. It’s this second type of modification that gives products the derogatory label of “Frankenfood.” But compared with crossbreeding or mutation breeding, says Novella, genetic modification is “much more precise”—selecting only one gene or a part of a gene and inserting it into the target food. What are people so worried about, then? Some have argued that new allergies could be induced by the creation of new proteins—Novella calls this a “legitimate concern” but says that GM foods undergo testing to prevent this from happening. Some fear that when GM foods are used as feed for livestock, there will be unintended consequences for humans who eat them. But again, there’s no evidence that animals that eat GM foods pose any he alth risks to us. “To date,” says Novella, “the reviews conclude pretty universally that there’s just no health risk.” Indeed, according to the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the research surrounding GM food is “quite clear: crop improvement by the modern molecular techniques of biotechnology is safe.” What’s more, GM foods are more tightly regulated than crops created with other modification methods and have to overcome more safety tests than their counterparts. Novella acknowledges that the complicated nature of genetics means that GM technology could conceivably have “unanticipated consequences,” but, he says, “we’ve been doing this for decades now, and there have been tons of studies looking at the results of genetic modification, and we’re not producing these scary monsters—this so-called Frankenfood. It just hasn’t happened.” Dr. Steven Novella. Dave Fayram/Flickr So if GM foods are safe, what are some of the other issues that people complain about when criticizing agribusiness companies? For one thing, GM opponents often argue that the planting of GM foods is not a sustainable agricultural practice. But according to Novella, that’s the wrong way to look at it.So if GM foods are safe, what are some of the other issues that people complain about when criticizing agribusiness companies? “GM is not agriculture…it is a tool,” he says. “The real question is how is it being used?” Novella points to a commonly used GM crop known as Bt corn, which has been engineered to include a gene from the Bacillus thuringiensis bacterium that produces a pest-killing protein. Unfortunately, Novella explains, the success of these GM crops can create perverse incentives to grow one type of plant exclusively. And just like with antibiotics, overuse of pest-resistant crops can lead to the creation of “superpests”—the agricultural counterpart of superbugs. But according to Novella, the problem here isn’t the GM crops themselves, but rather how they are used. “There’s nothing inherent to…Bt crops that says you have to use them in the worst possible way,” he says. Rather, if farmers mix Bt and non-Bt crops, “it becomes one powerful tool in a box of tools” that can help them increase profits in a sustainable way. “If you’re just focusing on GM, you’re missing the big picture, in that you have to look at farming as a practice, of which genetic modification is just one tool,” he adds. Genetic modification, Novella says, “is not the panacea, nor is it a menace; it’s just one more tool that has to be used intelligently.” So what does Novella think accounts for our distrust of genetic modification? He points to what he calls the “naturalistic fallacy,” or the reverence of “quote, unquote: what is ‘natural’ to an unreasonable degree.” “There’s nothing inherently good or virtuous about the way things were in nature,” he says. “And we’ve been altering them beyond recognition for thousands of years, anyway.” This episode of Inquiring Minds, a podcast hosted by neuroscientist and musician Indre Viskontas and best-selling author Chris Mooney, also features a discussion of the US Olympic team’s new high-tech ski suits and analysis of disturbing new evidence that Americans are increasingly likely to confuse astrology with science. To catch future shows right when they are released, subscribe to Inquiring Minds via iTunes or RSS. We are also available on Stitcher and on Swell. You can follow the show on Twitter at @inquiringshow and like us on Facebook. Inquiring Minds was also recently singled out as one of the “Best of 2013″ on iTunes—you can learn more here.

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No, GMOs Won’t Harm Your Health

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UN Climate Chief Calls for Tripling of Clean Energy Investment

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Christiana Figueres says $1 trillion a year is required for the transformation needed to stay within 2C of warming. Video produced by Tim McDonnell, Climate Desk. The United Nations climate chief has urged global financial institutions to triple their investments in clean energy to reach the $1 trillion a year mark that would help avert a climate catastrophe. In an interview with the Guardian, the UN’s Christiana Figueres urged institutions to begin building the foundations of a clean energy economy by scaling up their investments. Global investment in clean technologies is running at about $300bn a year – but that is nowhere where it needs to be, Figueres said. “From where we are to where we need to be, we need to triple, and we need to do that – over the next five to 10 years would be best – but certainly by 2030,” she said. The International Energy Agency said four years ago it would take $1tn a year in new infrastructure projects by 2030 to make the shift from acoal- and oil-based economy to the cleaner fuels and technologies that would help keep warming below the dangerous threshold of 2C. But investment has lagged far behind. “What we need to have invested in the energy sector and in the green infrastructure in order to make the transformation that we need in order to stay within 2C is one trillion dollars a year and we are way, way behind that,” Figueres said. Figueres and leading Wall Street figures will urge global investors to step up their clean energy investments at a meeting at the UN on Wednesday organised by the Ceres investment network. The biggest investors – pension funds, insurance companies, foundations and investment managers – control about $76tn in assets, according to OECD figures. But by Figueres’s estimate, those institutional investors were committing less than 2% of the funds under their control to clean energy infrastructure – compared to 10% or 15% that was still going into coal and oil. “Last year, we had $300bn, and in the same year we had double that amount invested in exploration and mining in fossil fuels. So you can see that the ratio is not where it needs to be. We need to be at the opposite ratio.” The UN climate official said she hoped to make her case by showing the opportunities in clean tech investment – but also the financial risks of sticking with coal and oil. The UN’s climate panel, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said for the first time in its blockbuster climate report last September that there was a finite amount of carbon that could be burnt to stay within 2C warming. About half of that carbon budget is already spent – which means much of the remaining coal and oil can not be burned without crossing into dangerous warming. “There is no doubt that most of the fossil fuel reserves we have world-wide will have to stay in the ground” to avoid warming beyond 2C, Figueres said. “Two-thirds of the fossil fuels we have will have to stay in the ground.” She argued those realities would eventually erode the value of oil and coal holdings. Climate experts have already taken to referring to such carbon stores as “stranded assets”. “There is study after study coming out saying beware we are invested in assets that are already and will soon be losing value,” she said. Diplomats hope this week’s investor summit will energise efforts to reach a global emissions-cutting deal in 2015. The gathering is the first of a number of big climate-themed gatherings set for 2014, culminating with an invitation to world leaders by the UN secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon, to a summit in September to try to get the outlines of that deal in place. In Washington, meanwhile, Barack Obama is expected to finalise new limits on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants – a critical step if the US is to reach its pledge to cut greenhouse gas emissions 17% by 2020. But global investment is still not keeping place. Bloomberg New Energy Finance put global investment in clean technology at just $281bn in 2012 – and the figures for 2013, due for release at the investor summit on Wednesday, are expected to fall even lower. That would mean a quadrupling of clean tech investment – instead of the tripling in investment that Figueres estimates. “Cost competitive renewable technologies and attractive investment opportunities exist right now, but we’re still not seeing clean energy deployment at the scale we need to put a dent in climate change,” said Mindy Lubber, the president of Ceres, which organised this week’s summit. “We need to find a way to get more institutional investor capital into this space.”

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UN Climate Chief Calls for Tripling of Clean Energy Investment

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Antarctica’s Poet-in-Residence

Here’s what she wrote. Rita Willaert/Flickr The National Science Foundation sent Jynne Dilling Martin to Antarctica this winter (the austral summer) as an artist-in-residence. Below are two poems she wrote from there. “Am Going South, Amundsen” An oil painting of a jaguar eating an emperor penguin is the start of a daydream in the Royal Society library. Nineteen ponies wedged in narrow wooden stalls sail south; they will soon go blind from miles of radiant snow, lap at volcanic ash for a last smack of salt, be shot and fed to dogs. For now they sway this way, sway that. The magnetic needle dips. Only afterwards we ask if it cost too much. Will this species be here tomorrow or not? says the scientist to her assembled team. The ponies eat oats in silence, the instruments keep ticking, the icy water washes on and off the deck. A bell abruptly rings a warning: oxidative stress, methane concentrations, too much heat. The dragonfish lays her pearlescent eggs beneath the ice and for ten months stands guard. The sea-stars sway this way, sway that. We all hope for the best. The adaptive might survive, the needy will not. Then again, the adaptive likely won’t either. Sorry we realized too late: we wipe reindeer hair from our eyes, the glaciated passages too dazzling to quite see clearly. To keep reading, click here. Visit link: Antarctica’s Poet-in-Residence ; ;Related ArticlesBill Nye Wants To Wage War on Anti-Science Politics, Make a Movie—And Save the Planet From AsteroidsAntarctic Sea Ice Increase is Because of Weather, Not ClimateFor the Birds (And the Bats) ;

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Antarctica’s Poet-in-Residence

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