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Baseball person Derek Jeter to world leaders: Climate change is a thing

by gerdi Posted on January 23, 2013

Baseball person Derek Jeter to world leaders: Climate change is a thing

By Philip Bump

Here’s how you know that the World Economic Forum’s annual gathering in Davos, Switzerland, attracts all of the world’s best and brightest: This morning, an audience heard from Derek Jeter.

If you don’t know who Derek Jeter is, allow me to explain. Imagine a group of pirates, a vile, filthy band of lawbreakers and miscreants. Now imagine this group had a captain who seemed perfectly nice and was very good at being a captain, but he’s spent his life in service to an evil, repulsive entity. That’s Derek Jeter. He’s the captain and star of the New York Yankees.

keithallison

Jeter yells at someone, probably not about the climate.

But living in New York (until recently, in a $15.5 million apartment atop Trump World Tower) means that Jeter (despite his deep and abiding flaws) saw firsthand the devastation of Hurricane Sandy. From the Columbus Dispatch:

“It’s just something that’s gotten so much attention,” Jeter said of climate change. “Regardless of how you feel about it, it’s something that needs to be addressed because we’re seeing more and more natural disasters each year, it seems like. Something has to be causing it.”

But Jeter, himself a global icon as the captain of one of the most recognizable and successful sports franchises in the world, said he doesn’t try to interject into politics.

“I know my place,” Jeter said.

Jeter’s place is clearly among amoral, hypercompetitive overachievers.

The good captain is not alone in linking Sandy with climate change. A poll taken last December suggested that New Yorkers readily made that connection — with a concomitant increase in a desire to address the problem. Yesterday, we wondered if this would be the year that Davos attendees finally took real action on global warming; if a multi-millionaire athlete can help them do so, so be it.

In case you still don’t really get what Davos is all about, this might help explain: Baseball star Derek Jeter is at the convening — having been invited by Pepsi — where he talked about the climate. I’m not sure it can be summarized any better than that.

Source

Jeter concerned about climate change, Columbus Dispatch

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How to respond to people who say the cold weather disproves global warming

by RubinkJoseph Posted on January 23, 2013

How to respond to people who say the cold weather disproves global warming

By Philip Bump

ShutterstockPrepare to get hit with the truthThose of you on the East Coast or who have access to the internet are likely aware that a severe cold snap has hit the region. It is affecting me personally, both because it is cold in my apartment and because my Twitter stream is now doubling as a real-time thermometer (with cursing).

What this means is that the opportunity is ripe for people who like to deny the existence of climate change to make stupid jokes. Some of these people will pull goofy stunts like building igloos, stunts which will land them a place in infamy among future generations. Other, lower-profile idiots will stop by your desk at work or email you or (God forbid) reach out on Facebook, saying something like “LOL what happenid to global warmeng??????” They will also mention Al Gore. Some will suggest you visit a thing called “Drudge Report”; do not do this.

As a general rule, it is not wise to engage with these people. They have already demonstrated that rationality is not a strong suit, so attempting to reason with them will only bring stress and pain to you both. But if you do want to engage with them — you have eight hours to kill; you are a masochist — we put together this handy, step-by-step guide for you to do so. Remember: speak slowly and, if necessary, draw pictures. The task before you makes Anne Sullivan‘s look trivial.

Why abnormally cold weather doesn’t “disprove” global warming
1. It is winter. More specifically, it is January.
The person to whom you are speaking may have noticed over the course of his life that it always gets colder during the winter, at least for those of us unlucky enough to live far from the Equator. Average temperatures in New York City for January range in the low 30s. Right now it is colder than that, but warmer than the all-time low for the date: two degrees, set in 1976.

This happens, you should remind the person, because the Earth doesn’t rotate straight up and down. The Earth’s axis is tilted. So for part of the year as the Earth rotates around the Sun, the Southern Hemisphere is farther from the Sun than the Northern Hemisphere. When that happens, we experience summer and they experience winter. Now, the opposite is true. We are thousands of miles farther from the Sun than we were six months ago. That changes the average temperature.

Now give them a little pat on the head by suggesting that if it were this cold in, say, July, they’d be right to find it suspicious. But thinking it’s weird that it’s very (but not exceptionally) cold in January is like being puzzled when water they put in the freezer turns to ice. Then ask them if they know how to make ice in a freezer. If they say no, just drop the whole thing.

2. There’s a weird weather pattern that’s making it colder than it would otherwise be.
Climate Central notes the unusual “stratospheric warming event” that is causing the current cold temperatures. Be warned: This will likely confuse and frighten the person with whom you’re speaking. Take it slow.

While the physics behind sudden stratospheric warming events are complicated, their implications are not: such events are often harbingers of colder weather in North America and Eurasia. The ongoing event favors colder and possibly stormier weather for as long as four to eight weeks after the event, meaning that after a mild start to the winter, the rest of this month and February could bring the coldest weather of the winter season to parts of the U.S., along with a heightened chance of snow.

Climate Central/Weatherbell

Monday’s highs, due to the stratospheric event. Click to embiggen.

That may be too much for your audience. You can also try saying this, instead: “A sky thing is happening that doesn’t usually happen! It’s making it cold now, but it will go away.”

The key word to use is “unusual.” It is unusually cold because there is an unusual weather event. Ask the person you’re speaking with if they know what “unusual” means.

3. For advanced listeners only: Researchers expected a colder winter — thanks to global warming.

This summer saw the most extensive Arctic ice melt in recorded history. As it concluded, we noted that scientists expected that ice loss to translate to colder weather events. And, sure enough, from the Climate Central article linked above:

Sudden stratospheric warming events take place in about half of all Northern Hemisphere winters, and they have been occurring with increasing frequency during the past decade, possibly related to the loss of Arctic sea ice due to global warming. Arctic sea ice declined to its smallest extent on record in September 2012.

The “warming event” disturbs a pattern known as the “polar vortex.”

Sudden stratospheric warming events occur when large atmospheric waves, known as Rossby waves, extend beyond the troposphere where most weather occurs, and into the stratosphere. This vertical transport of energy can set a complex process into motion that leads to the breakdown of the high altitude cold low pressure area that typically spins above the North Pole during the winter, which is known as the polar vortex.

The polar vortex plays a major role in determining how much Arctic air spills southward toward the mid-latitudes. When there is a strong polar vortex, cold air tends to stay bottled up in the Arctic. However, when the vortex weakens or is disrupted, like a spinning top that suddenly starts wobbling, it can cause polar air masses to surge south, while the Arctic experiences milder-than-average temperatures.

Climate Central has a nifty animation of this happening. It may be easier to simply load that animation and point to it while nodding than trying to fight through the explanation above.

4. But most importantly: Weather is not climate.
It’s hard for all of us, dim-witted coworkers and relatives aside, to differentiate between a hot or cold day and the concept that the climate is changing over time. One of the best, clearest explanations of the difference comes from this now-famous video:

This week, that dog is dipping down into lower temperatures. But the planet keeps marching higher and higher, bringing all of us along with it.

Another way to think of it is using James Hansen’s analogy of loaded dice. Every day, the weather is the result of a roll of the dice. You could get a one. But more and more often, as the dice become more lopsided, you’re going to roll a six.

By this point in your argument, it is unlikely that your audience is still listening. He or she (it’s a he, isn’t it?) has glazed over, or has stormed off while yelling something about a Rush something or other, or has been trying to punch you for five to ten minutes. There’s a tiny, remote possibility of a fourth response: a sudden, gradual nodding of the head, a request for more detail on one of the points you’ve raised. If this has happened, congratulations. You’ve done the unimaginable: changed a knee-jerk global warming denier into someone who accepts science.

The bad news is that you’ve used up an entire lifetime of luck in changing one mind. You probably should have just bought a lottery ticket.

Inspired by this tweet from Marshall Shepherd, the president of the American Meteorological Society.

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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A be-nice, don’t-hog-the-road guide for cyclists

by Larissaiyb Posted on January 22, 2013

A be-nice, don’t-hog-the-road guide for cyclists

By Susie Cagle

Pro tip: Here is how not to ride your bike in a city unless you want people to think you are a total dick.

To that end, Transportation Alternatives has a new Street Code for Cyclists handbook. It’s specific to New York City’s rules of the road, but a lot of what’s in here is basic common sense for bicycling commuters.

Sarah Becan

The No. 1 message: Biking may in fact rule, but pedestrians are the real road royalty.

We know — and studies show — that more bicyclists make cycling safer and safer cycling will encourage more people to get out and ride. This is a virtuous cycle that we can work together to continue. In this effort the public’s perception of cyclists matters as much as, if not more than, any new bike lane or scores of new riders. …

Here’s a simple proposition: always yield to pedestrians. …

Cyclists often know, in painful detail, the fear and havoc that automobiles can bring to NYC streets. Let’s not pose a similar threat to pedestrians in the walking capital of the world. Instead, let’s seize this opportunity to usher in a new era of safer, saner travel.

Some of this is common sense. Encouraging not just lawful but courteous behavior toward everyone who shares the road is a great ideal, and studies have indeed shown that making cycling safer is what encourages people to choose two wheels over four.

More than 50,000 cyclists are injured on the road each year — almost as high as the number of pedestrians injured, though more pedestrian accidents prove fatal. Rarely are any of those injuries caused by bike-on-ped accidents (though it does sometimes happen, and can be fatal). But both drivers and walkers complain about out-of-control, law-flouting bike-riders from sea to shining sea. It’s a common argument against adding cycling lanes to roads: Won’t those just attract more bike-riding hoodlums who already think they can take the lane??

It’s important that the public perceive cycling as nothing like that Premium Rush movie if we want to make more people comfortable on the roads and break down barriers between four-wheel, two-wheel, and no-wheel groups.

But why does the onus for safety so often fall on cyclists? They’re not the ones routinely maiming and killing people with speeding, two-ton hunks of metal. Maybe a friendly Driving Rules handbook is in order — “rules” as in “guidelines,” not “is awesome.”

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140 nations — including the U.S. — agree on treaty to slash use of mercury

by sssaa Posted on January 22, 2013

140 nations — including the U.S. — agree on treaty to slash use of mercury

By Philip Bump

In seventh grade, our science teacher would, on rare, special occasions, let us play with mercury. This will be my edition of the crazy-things-that-used-to-be-OK stories that parents tell their kids. ”You played with mercury? With your hands?” my kids will ask. Yep. It was stupid.

Where mercury is really dangerous, of course, is in the air. In 2011, the EPA proposed a new standard for the reduction of mercury pollution from power plants. (It is currently under review.) Over the weekend, 140 countries — including the United States — finalized a preliminary agreement to go one step further, proposing to scale back and eliminate a number of uses of mercury, including reductions in emissions from power production. From the United Nations Environment Programme:

[The new reductions] range from medical equipment such as thermometers and energy-saving light bulbs to the mining, cement and coal-fired power sectors.

The treaty, which has been four years in negotiation and which will be open for signature at a special meeting in Japan in October, also addresses the direct mining of mercury, export and import of the metal and safe storage of waste mercury. …

Mercury and its various compounds have a range of serious health impacts including brain and neurological damage especially among the young.

Others include kidney damage and damage to the digestive system. Victims can suffer memory loss and language impairment alongside many other well documented problems.

pgordon

As you may know, the millinery industry in Victorian England relied heavily on the use of mercury. The “well documented problems” mentioned above were frequently seen in hat-makers, resulting in Lewis Carroll’s famous Mad Hatter in Alice in Wonderland.

The Mad Hatter had it relatively good. This weekend’s agreement resulted from UNEP’s Minamata Convention on Mercury, named for Minamata, Japan. During the early 20th century, wastewater from a chemical plan in the city leaked a mercury product into a local waterway. The mercury poisoned shellfish, which people consumed; an estimated 1,700 people died from mercury poisoning over several decades.

Science magazine outlines some of the changes proposed in the agreement:

[The treaty] will require its signatory nations to phase out the use of mercury in certain types of batteries, fluorescent lamps, and soaps and cosmetics by 2020.

The agreement also requires countries to limit emissions of mercury from coal-fired power plants, waste incineration, and cement factories. Countries in which small-scale gold mining takes place must draw up strategies to reduce or eliminate mercury use in that sector. Coal power plants and unregulated gold mining are the world’s two largest sources of mercury emissions and releases into the environment.

The delegates agreed to limit mercury amalgam use in dental fillings, and to phase out the use of the element in medical thermometers and blood pressure devices.

In October, governments will begin signing the treaty. The United States has agreed to the treaty in theory, but that will almost certainly result in a heated political debate in practice. The EPA’s proposed mercury rule — a relatively modest reduction in pollution from coal plants — has elicited an enormous backlash. Extending reductions to other industries will only broaden opposition.

Nonetheless, the agreement is a positive step. Mercury’s negative health effects are well-documented and significant; reducing its use will certainly be an international boon. Be warned: Even minor exposure to the chemical has been known to result in tendentious writing, recycled jokes, and an over-reliance on snark. May our children know better lives than we do.

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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There’s a hole in my plastic-bag law

by johnsmithwindows Posted on January 19, 2013

There’s a hole in my plastic-bag law

By Susie Cagle

Alameda County, Calif., where I live, has banned stores from giving out plastic bags as of Jan. 1. It’s great news that was a long time coming, considering the county is home to eco-minded cities Berkeley and Oakland.

The county suffers from its fair share of local plastic bag pollution. “Each year, the equivalent of 100,000 kitchen garbage bags worth of litter end up in our local waterways, including an estimated 1 million disposable plastic bags,” says Jim Scanlin, manager of Alameda County’s Clean Water Program. And without a water treatment plant, all that plastic flows directly into local creeks and San Francisco Bay.

Most businesses have switched to paper bags. But because of a loophole in the law, they actually don’t have to — they can simply call a plastic bag “reusable,” like this awesome one I got from my local liquor store the other day.

You can tell it’s a “reusable” plastic bag and not one of those regular garbagey plastic bags because not only does it say “reusable” on it, but it is also green! And it cost me 10 cents, like all bags do now, as an incentive for customers to bring their own to the store.

I’ve already seen three of these in gutters between my house and said liquor store, on their way to a garbage patch. Good job, plastic bag ban, keep up the good work!

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More than half the U.S. is still in drought, and it’s likely to last through April

by RubinkJoseph Posted on January 18, 2013

More than half the U.S. is still in drought, and it’s likely to last through April

By Philip Bump

Do you know where the largest desert in the world is? Go ahead, Google it. I’ll wait. The correct answer: the Antarctic. Even though it is cold and covered with snow, it receives very, very small amounts of precipitation. The more you know, etc.

I bring this up to demonstrate that appearances can be deceiving. Right now, for example, it is winter. And despite that, and despite the fact that the United States saw a decent amount of precipitation last week, much of the country is still under drought conditions — nearly 59 percent of the lower 48 states, in fact.

DroughtMonitor

And that is likely to continue. From Climate Central:

The national drought footprint shrank slightly this week, as heavy rains fell across the South, Southeast, Midwest and parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, and major snowfall blanketed parts of the Rocky Mountains and Northern Cascades, bringing relief to those regions. However, the hardest-hit drought region — the Great Plains — continued to experience drier-than-average conditions, with the drought continuing to hold on.

A new federal drought outlook issued on Thursday projects that the drought conditions are likely to remain entrenched through April, and that the drought may even worsen from the Plains to the Rockies and into the Southwest, along with another area of persistent and expanding drought in the Southeast, including southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

Here’s what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration thinks that persistence will look like by May.

DroughtMonitor

Even in winter, the ripple effects of the drought continue. Over the past 25 years, budget cuts have meant that the Army Corps of Engineers only fully dredged the Great Lakes six times. Without dredging properly, sediment builds up in shipping lanes. Making matters worse, the drought is causing water levels to drop. That combination of higher lake floors and less water is forcing ports along the lakes to close.

The 2012 drought was, by many measures, the worst since the Dust Bowl era. It’s not over yet. Just as a little cool weather doesn’t undermine the concept of global warming, a little precipitation doesn’t end a drought. And sometimes deserts are frozen solid.

Shutterstock

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Guess which North American country produces the most garbage. Wrong!

by greenenergy4 Posted on January 17, 2013

Guess which North American country produces the most garbage. Wrong!

By Philip Bump

Despite how demure its citizens are, Canada sometimes feels a little insecure about always being promoted as second-fiddle to the United States. There is a famous T-shirt which suggests that Canada is America’s hat; while this is largely true, Canada yearns to occasionally suggest that the U.S. is Canada’s boxer shorts. (Your Florida is hanging out.)

In one thing, though, Canada emerges victorious: garbage production. From the CBC:

The Conference Board of Canada gave Canada a C grade on Thursday and ranked it in 15th place among 17 developed nations studied across a host of environmental-efficiency metrics. …

While Canada earned a few A grades in categories such as water quality, endangered species and the use of forest resources, overall the country scored a D average. …

Canada fared dismally in terms of the amount of waste we produce. In 2009 (the data year on which the study was based), Canada produced 777 kilgrams of garbage per citizen. Across all 17 countries studied, the average was only 578 kg produced.

pedalfreak

This is actually a dump in Canada. Really. With bears.

This is what happens when you have a ton of extra space — it fills up with junk you don’t need to keep. Been there, Canada! We feel you!

[This spot could have been used for a hacky joke about the things Canadians throw away — Tim Horton’s cups, moose antlers, empty syrup bottles, retired NHL players — but we’re too mature for that.]

So congratulations to our head-warming neighbors to the north. You’ve done it. You’ve bested America in a field that most people would assume the U.S. would win in a walk. On garbage production, we are truly Canada’s underpants.

On nearly every other factor studied, though:

The 15th-place [overall] ranking put Canada only ahead of the U.S. and Australia …

The report found Canadians use 1,131 cubic metres per capita of water per year. The only country that uses more water is the United States, which consumes 1,632 cubic metres per capita.

U-S-A, motherf*ckers. U. S. A.

Source

Canadians produce more garbage than anyone else, CBC

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Soot is the second-most dangerous global warming pollutant

by greenenergy4 Posted on January 16, 2013

Soot is the second-most dangerous global warming pollutant

By Philip Bump

When the EPA announced stricter limits on soot emissions last year, the health benefits were immediately apparent. Less soot — that is, tiny particles that result from burning fossil fuels — means fewer heart attacks, less asthma, longer lifespans. On this basis alone, the new standard is a beneficial move.

Soot and smoke in Pittsburgh during the early 1900s

As it turns out, the move could also play a significant role in countering global warming. Researchers have determined that black carbon (soot) contributes twice as much to global warming as previously understood. From the University of Washington:

Black carbon’s role in climate is complex. Dark particles in the air work to shade the Earth’s surface while warming the atmosphere. Black carbon that settles on the surface of snow and ice darkens the surface to absorb more sunlight and increase melting. Finally, soot particles influence cloud formation in ways that can have either a cooling or warming impact.

Last year, another team of researchers proposed a novel way to curb Arctic ice melt: halting airplane trips over the region. The black carbon emitted by trans-Arctic flights lingers in the atmosphere in the area longer than it does elsewhere.

Bloomberg.com outlines other effects:

The four-year study by more than two dozen researchers also showed that black carbon causes “significantly higher warming” over the Arctic and can affect rainfall patterns in high- emitting regions such as Asia. The pollutant also has contributed to rising temperatures in mid- to high-latitude areas including the U.S. and Canada.

The article (by the aptly named “Justin Doom”) notes that soot “trails only carbon dioxide as the most dangerous climate pollutant.”

Soot pollution won’t be a trivial problem to fix. A recent report suggested that some 1,200 new coal plants are planned around the world, and coal consumption for power production is a big generator of soot. Earlier this week, we noted that soot pollution in Beijing was spiking as electricity production increased, though levels have since receded. Diesel engines, another major contributor to black carbon pollution, pose another set of challenges.

Nonetheless, you can’t cure a disease until you diagnose it. Here’s our diagnosis: Soot is dangerous — in more ways than we knew.

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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Court: Polar bear habitat that interferes with oil drilling has to go

by BayalaHillesland628 Posted on January 15, 2013

Court: Polar bear habitat that interferes with oil drilling has to go

By Philip Bump

Through a bit of evolutionary serendipity, polar bears are cute. They are big and fuzzy and have thick, dopey heads. This is helpful to the polar bears, because it’s given the animals a powerful tool in their fight for existence. “Do you want polar bears to go away?” fundraising pleas ask above a sharp photograph of a bear’s clear black eyes.

To which oil companies say, “Only if they’re in the way.” Last week, a federal court in Alaska overturned a Fish and Wildlife Service habitat designation for polar bears after the fossil fuel industry sued, complaining that the habitat interefered with oil exploration. From the Wall Street Journal:

A U.S. court in Alaska has overturned a federal rule aimed at protecting polar bear habitat in the Arctic, handing a victory to the oil and natural-gas industry.

The rule, established by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, is “valid in many respects,” but the agency didn’t follow all the legally required steps before adopting the regulation, U.S. District Court Judge Ralph R. Beistline wrote in the decision, which was dated Thursday and published Friday. …

The government designated barrier islands, offshore sea-ice and “denning” areas, where female polar bears are known to make dens where they give birth to their young during winter months, as critical habitat. At the time of the designation, in November 2010, the Fish and Wildlife Service said the areas were “essential for the conservation of the bear.”

It’s fossil fuel industries that have put the polar bear in its current plight. Rampant greenhouse gas emission and the warming that has ensued has caused Arctic ice levels to plummet. With less ice, it becomes harder and harder for bears to conserve energy and to find food. As we noted in 2007:

As sea ice thins, and becomes more fractured and labile, it is likely to move more in response to winds and currents so that polar bears will need to walk or swim more and thus use greater amounts of energy to maintain contact with the remaining preferred habitats.

The government tried to create a protected habitat, a place where bears could hunt and rest as best they could without additional interference. But unfortunately for the bears, the Fish and Wildlife Service put the reserve on land that was already inhabited: by oil. So the Alaska Oil and Gas Association and the American Petroleum Institute sued, with the oil-obsessed state’s help.

The AOGA issued a pleased-as-punch statement [PDF] in response to the court ruling, including this quote from executive director Kara Moriarty.

AOGA members care as much about protecting Alaska’s environment and wildlife as anyone else, but we also recognize the need to responsibly develop our natural resources in order to keep the state’s number one economic driver healthy.

Emphasis added, to highlight the part of the quote that is bullshit.

Even worse was the statement from Alaska’s governor. Again from the Journal:

Alaska Gov. Sean Parnell said Friday that he “applauded” the court’s decision.

“The Fish and Wildlife Service’s attempt to classify massive sections of resource-rich North Slope lands as critical habitat is the latest in a long string of examples of the federal government encroaching on states’ rights,” Mr. Parnell said.

You can hear Parnell salivating as he says resource-rich. After all, he — along with every resident of Alaska — has a dog in the fight over drilling. Last year, every Alaskan received $878 thanks to the state’s Permanent Fund, which distributes profits from oil drilling to residents. More drilling equals more money for the state, meaning happier voters in Parnell’s eyes. More polar bears don’t do him much good at all.

Making the moral of the story this: Polar bears may be cute, but the faces on dollar bills are a lot cuter.

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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The 32 most alarming charts from the government’s climate change report

by olikellopas Posted on January 14, 2013

The 32 most alarming charts from the government’s climate change report

By Philip Bump

Just reading about the government’s massive new report outlining what climate change has in store for the U.S. is sobering. In brief: temperature spikes, drought, flooding, less snow, less permafrost. But if you really want to freak out, you should check out the graphs, charts, and maps.

For the more visually oriented bunker builders out there, here are the 32 most alarming images from the 1,200-page draft report. (Click any of them to embiggen.)

Things will be different.
Analysis suggests that temperatures could rise as much as 11 degrees by the end of the century. On this chart, note the lines labelled SRES A2 and SRES B1. Those are the two greenhouse gas emission scenarios used as worst- and best-case scenarios in many of the charts that follow.

It’s possible that sea levels could only rise eight inches. It is also possible that they could rise over six-and-a-half feet.

Over the past 30 years, we’ve already seen hundreds of billion-dollar weather disasters — heavily centered on the South and Southeast.

We will be hot.
Over the past century, temperature changes have varied by region.

Depending on the emissions scenario, we could see an average of four degrees of temperature increase — or 10 degrees across the country.

Under the worse-case emissions scenario, annual days over 100 degrees will spike in the Plains, Southwest, and Southeast.

The whole country will see more frost-free days — but particularly in the Southwest.

We will be wet.
Precipitation has been increasing across the country …

… but that increase isn’t uniform.

We will also be dry.
Under a higher-emissions scenario, the southwest will see far less rain.

Drought will increase significantly …

… and we’ll see significant increases in water withdrawal.

Very heavy precipitation — far bigger storms — will increase dramatically in the Northeast.

Flooding in the northern Plains and Northeast will increase.

We will be itchy and sneezy and diseased.
Carbon dioxide increases will lead to more pollen, exacerbating allergies.

The natural range of ticks will expand.

Alaska will become a totally different state.
Under the higher emissions scenario, Alaska could see temperature increases of nearly 12 degrees.

That increased warmth will mean faster thawing of the permafrost, which is very, very bad news.

We will need boats, if we live on the coast.
The U.S. has seen huge population growth on its coasts, which is bad news.

Sea-level rise will affect different areas to different degrees — but note the map at lower right. On the Georgia coast, “hundred year” floods could happen annually.

In New York, which has seen sea rise quickly …

… the boundaries suggesting where a hundred year flood would stop will keep moving inland.

North Carolina will see rising whatever-they-call-its, too.

Across the country, airports built near the ocean, often on fill, will become more subject to flooding.

Power plants in California will be threatened by flooding.

Seattle will see huge areas of the city made vulnerable to flooding and surge. (You can read the details here.)

Or, in summary:
Here’s what you can expect depending on where in the country you live.

If you really want to sleep poorly tonight, open the full report and search for your state. If the temperature is only expected to go up five degrees, consider yourself lucky.

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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