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We Are Live-Blogging the Democratic Debate in New Hampshire

Mother Jones

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As debates go, this one was pretty good. The moderators generally did a good job, allowing the candidates to argue when it made sense, but ending things when it looked like there was nothing useful left to say. This is a lot easier with two people than ten, of course, and also easier when both candidates are relatively civil.

Hillary was more aggressive than I’ve seen her before. He complaint early on that Bernie was slandering her with innuendo and insinuation (and “artful smears”) was tough but, I think, also fair. And I have a feeling Bernie felt a little embarrassed by it. He was certainly careful to pull things back to a civil tone after that. Hillary is not a natural campaigner, but she’s a good debater, and this was Hillary at her pugnacious best.

Obviously foreign affairs are not Bernie’s strong point, but I was still a little surprised at just how poorly prepared he was to say much of anything or to draw much of a contrast with Hillary’s views. Either he really doesn’t know much, or else he thinks his dovish views are losers even among the Democratic base. I won’t pretend that Hillary was a genius on this stuff—almost nobody is on a debate stage—but at least she sounded well briefed and confident.

On financial issues, Bernie was surprisingly weak. This really is his strong point, but he continues to have a hard time getting much beyond platitudes. I get that it’s a debate and 90 seconds isn’t much, but it’s still enough time for a little more detail than “the system is rigged.” Hillary didn’t do much better, but she held her own and gave a strong response to the two (!) questions about her Goldman Sachs speeches.

Overall, I doubt this debate changed many minds. Bernie insisted that we can dream. Hillary insisted that we figure out what’s doable. I’d score it a clear win for Hillary based on her aggressiveness and generally solid answers compared to Bernie’s platitudes and obvious reluctance to attack hard. But I admit this might just be my own biases talking, since Hillary’s approach to politics is closer to mine than Bernie’s.

Debate transcript here.


11:06 – And that’s a wrap.

11:04 – Hillary: We need to “come up with the best answers.” That’s her campaign in a nutshell.

11:02 – No, neither Hillary nor Bernie will pick the other as VP. Come on, Chuck.

10:58 – But Bernie will happily get suckered! It’s campaign finance reform for him.

10:55 – Hillary isn’t going to be suckered into setting a top priority, thus throwing all the others under the bus. Come on, Chuck.

10:47 – I thought this was a 90-minute debate. What’s the deal?

10:44 – Regarding Flint, I will not be happy until either Hillary or Bernie mentions that we now know lead poisoning leads to higher crime rates, “as brilliantly set out in an article by Kevin Drum a couple of years ago.” I will vote for whoever says this first.

10:42 – Bernie on the death penalty: In a violent world, “government should not be part of the killing.” I have to admit I’ve never really understood this particular bit of reasoning.

10:31 – Ah. Hillary now gets to use Colin Powell as backup for her email problems.

10:29 – Hillary is thrilled about all the young people supporting Bernie. OK then.

10:25 – Bernie loves the caucus process? Seriously?

10:17 – Bernie: “Pathetic” that Republicans refused to support VA reform.

10:12 – I hate to say this, but Bernie on North Korea sounds about as well briefed as Donald Trump. Very strange situation. Handful of dictators—or, um, maybe just one. Gotta put pressure on China. “I worry very much about an isolated, paranoid country with atomic bombs.”

10:10 – Bernie does himself no favors on national security. I’m closer to his position than Hillary’s, but Bernie honestly sounds like he’s never given this stuff a moment’s thought. At least Hillary has some views and sounds confident in her abilities.

10:08 – Bernie wagging his finger again. I’m pretty sure the hosts will call on him regardless.

10:06 – Bernie really needs to have a foreign policy other than “I voted against the Iraq War.”

10:05 – Why is there bipartisan loathing of being “the policeman of the world”? What does this even mean?

10:03 – Hillary: we have a very cooperative government in Afghanistan. You bet. Wildly incompetent and corrupt, but pliable.

10:01 – Everyone agrees that a Muslim civil war is the right way to handle the Middle East.

9:59 – Hillary frequently insists on responding even when Bernie hasn’t really left a mark. Leave well enough alone!

9:58 – Hillary provides Shermanesque answer about not sending ground troops to Iraq or Syria.

9:46 – Oh FFS. Is “Release the transcripts!” going to be the next big Hillary “scandal”?

9:44 – Unfortunately, Hillary doesn’t really explain her more complicated financial regulation plan very well. There’s probably no help for that, especially in 90 seconds.

9:42 – I’m with Hillary on reinstating Glass-Steagall. To me, it’s the Democratic equivalent of raising the retirement age to save Social Security: easy to understand, but not the best answer by a long way.

9:41 – Hillary defends her Goldman Sachs speeches competently, but Bernie doesn’t really fight back. He just provides a generic answer about the pernicious power of Wall Street.

9:31 – Hillary is attacking very hard tonight. Bernie voted to deregulate derivatives! Not that there’s anything wrong with that. You think she’s played this game before? Bernie responds by telling people to look up a YouTube.

9:29 – Bernie answers with generic criticism of special interests and money in politics. Not a strong response.

9:27 – Hillary criticizes Bernie for claiming to run a positive campaign, but constantly attacking her “by innuendo, by insinuation.” Then she asks him to stop the “artful smear” he’s been carrying out against her. This is a tough hit on Bernie.

9:26 – Hillary: “I won’t make big promises.” Not sure that came out as well as it should have.

9:23 – I think Hillary missed a chance to say that of course Bernie is a Democrat and he shouldn’t have to defend himself on that score. It would have been a nice moment for her with no downside.

9:19 – Hillary refers to Bernie as “self-appointed gatekeeper” of who’s a progressive. Ouch.

9:17 – Bernie: Obama was a progressive by 2008 standards.

9:15 – Bernie: none of his ideas are radical. True enough, by non-American standards.

9:14 – Good answer from Hillary on whether she’s progressive enough: Under Bernie’s standards, no one in the party is truly progressive.

9:07 – Hillary: “The numbers just don’t add up” for all of Bernie’s proposals.

9:01 – I see that Rachel Maddow is as excited as I am that Martin O’Malley has dropped out.

9:00 – And with that, on with the debate!

8:58 – This is the second election cycle in which I’ve liked both of the Democratic frontrunners. In 2008 I ended up leaning for Obama, which I don’t regret. This year I’m leaning toward Hillary. Both times, however, I’ve been surprised at how fast things turned ugly. But ugly they’ve turned.

8:53 – Last night on Twitter I said that Hillary Clinton had given a terrible answer to the Goldman Sachs speech question. I was immediately besieged with outraged comments about how I was just another Beltway shill who’s always hated Hillary. This morning I wrote that Bernie Sanders was disingenuously pretending not to criticize Clinton over her Wall Street contributions even though he obviously was. I was immediately besieged with outraged comments about how I was just another Beltway shill who’s always been in the bag for Hillary. Welcome to the Democratic primaries.

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We Are Live-Blogging the Democratic Debate in New Hampshire

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Rubio Feasts on the Leftovers in New Hampshire

Mother Jones

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Apologies for two polls in one day, but the latest CNN poll shows something interesting in the Republican race. Donald Trump is still in the lead in New Hampshire, but in the wake of the Iowa caucuses Marco Rubio has picked up a lot of support. Basically, several other folks have either left the race or lost their fan base, and nearly all of it has gone to Rubio.

It’s only one poll, and the absolute margin of error is large, but it probably shows the trend fairly well. And what it suggests is that as the also-rans steadily drop out of the race, Rubio is picking up the bulk of their support. If this happens in other states as well, Rubio could be well on his way to building a commanding lead.

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Rubio Feasts on the Leftovers in New Hampshire

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Ted Cruz Attacks Sean Penn—and Here’s Penn’s Response

Mother Jones

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At an addiction policy forum in Hooksett, New Hampshire, on Thursday, Sen. Ted Cruz, the winner of the Republican Iowa caucuses, turned his talk about the awful consequences of addiction into a rant against…illegal immigration. And, of course, the media and Hollywood. After describing how addiction has affected his family—his half sister died of a drug overdose in 2011—Cruz quickly pivoted to discuss the flood of “undocumented Democrats” (Freudian slip?) coming across the border from Mexico and the need to build a wall to keep them out. He suggested the wall was also needed to protect the United States from drug cartels. Then he turned to the entertainment industry and one member in particular:

El Chapo. You know, Sean Penn seems to think he is a sexy and attractive character. I so appreciate Hollywood for glorifying vicious homicidal killers. What a cute and chic thing to celebrate. Someone who murders and destroys lives for a living. El Chapo’s organization brings vast quantities of drugs into this country, vast quantities of heroin.

Of course, this was a reference to Sean Penn’s recent Rolling Stone article, in which Penn conducted an interview with the fugitive drug cartel chieftain in a secret jungle location. The piece did not celebrate El Chapo—but Cruz was looking to blame all the usual suspects for the drug epidemic in New England: the media, Democrats, and a big-name actor.

Asked to respond to Cruz’s effort to link him to the addiction plague in the Granite State, Penn, in an email, told Mother Jones:

Ted Cruz is a generically funny and dangerously adept thought-smith. Clearly, he watches too much television and neglected to read my article before criticizing. It’s understood. He’s busy trading genius and raising aspirations with Mr. Trump. Blame Canada.

Penn’s last sentence is a reference to this.

We’ve asked the Cruz campaign if it would like to respond—and whether the senator is a fan of South Park.

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Ted Cruz Attacks Sean Penn—and Here’s Penn’s Response

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Marco Rubio Lashes Out Against Call For Religious Toleration

Mother Jones

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President Obama, during a speech today at a Baltimore mosque:

If we’re serious about freedom of religion — and I’m speaking now to my fellow Christians who remain the majority in this country — we have to understand an attack on one faith is an attack on all our faiths. And when any religious group is targeted, we all have a responsibility to speak up. And we have to reject a politics that seeks to manipulate prejudice or bias, and targets people because of religion.

Marco Rubio, commenting a couple of hours later on Obama’s speech:

Always pitting people against each other. Always. Look at today: he gave a speech at a mosque. Oh, you know, basically implying that America is discriminating against Muslims….It’s this constant pitting people against each other that I can’t stand.

There you have it. Ask Christians to reject the politics of bigotry, and you’re pitting people against each other. And Marco Rubio, for one, will have no part of that.

UPDATE: Revised to include exact quote from Rubio.

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Marco Rubio Lashes Out Against Call For Religious Toleration

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The Republican Field Is Shrinking Rapidly

Mother Jones

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I know how easy it is to lose track of things. So just for the record, we’re now down to seven real candidates on the Republican side of things:

Cruz
Rubio
Bush
Trump
Carson
Christie
Kasich

This doesn’t count the three dead-enders who haven’t officially quit yet: Jim Gilmore, Rick Santorum, and Carly Fiorina. By my figuring, New Hampshire should kill off Bush and Carson and get us down to five real candidates. Maybe even Kasich and Christie, too. For all practical purposes, by next Wednesday we might finally be down to our long-fabled three-man race.

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The Republican Field Is Shrinking Rapidly

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Chart of the Day: Another Sign That Dodd-Frank Is Working

Mother Jones

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Via Matt O’Brien, this chart from JP Morgan shows financial sector leverage over the past few decades. As you can see, leverage skyrocketed during the Bush era, which contributed to the 2008 financial meltdown, and then plummeted shortly thereafter. Then it flattened out for a couple of years, and under normal circumstances it probably would have started to climb again when the economy began to recover. Two things stopped it: Dodd-Frank and Basel III, both of which mandated higher capital requirements and thus lower overall leverage levels. This has reduced Wall Street profits but made the banking system safer for everyone.

In other words: financial regulation FTW. Nothing is perfect, and Wall Street is doing everything it can to undermine Dodd-Frank during the rulemaking process, but if it accomplishes nothing except encouraging less leverage it will have done its most important job.

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Chart of the Day: Another Sign That Dodd-Frank Is Working

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Conservative Culture and the Fear of Reverse Racism

Mother Jones

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Bruce Bartlett has written a new paper that examines the role of “reverse racism” in the rise of Donald Trump. Bartlett touches on a number of topics—e.g., changing demographics, partisan realignment, the media promotion of race as an in-group marker—but the cornerstone of his narrative is a simple recognition that fear of reverse racism is deep and pervasive among white Americans. Here’s the basic lay of the land from a bit of research done a few years ago by Michael Norton and Samuel Sommers:

As you can see, everyone agrees that racism was endemic in the 50s, and everyone agrees that it’s improved since then. But among whites, a majority believe that racism against blacks has improved so much—and reverse racism against whites has intensified so much—that today there’s literally more bias against whites than against blacks.

The Norton-Summers study doesn’t break down racial views further, but it’s a safe guess that fears of reverse racism are concentrated primarily among political conservatives—encouraged on a near daily basis by talk radio, Fox News, and Republican politicians. Given this, it’s hardly any wonder that Trump’s barely-coded appeals to racial resentment have resonated so strongly among Republican voters. Trump himself may or may not have any staying power, but his basic appeal is rooted in a culture of white grievance that’s been growing for years and is likely to keep growing in the future as white majorities continue to shrink. No matter what happens to Trump himself, he’s mainstreamed white victimhood as a political force to be reckoned with for the foreseeable future.

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Conservative Culture and the Fear of Reverse Racism

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Clinton Beats Sanders, 50-50

Mother Jones

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I’m not much of a horse-race guy, but it sure seems like the horse race is now key to the future of the Democratic primaries. The problem for Bernie Sanders is that he has an obvious structural disadvantage—superdelegates are almost 100 percent Clinton supporters—as well as a problem in the states following New Hampshire. So he needs to follow up his good showing in Iowa with electrifying results in New Hampshire.

But he can’t. He started opening up a big lead in New Hampshire at the beginning of January, and the polls now have him 20 points ahead. To generate any serious shock waves he’d have to win by 30 or 40 points, and that’s just not in the cards. Obviously anything can happen, but at this point it looks like Sanders wins in New Hampshire; it’s entirely expected and ho hum; and Clinton then marches implacably on to the nomination. It’s hard for me to see a likely scenario in which anything different happens.

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Clinton Beats Sanders, 50-50

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Ted! Ted! Ted!

Mother Jones

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Here are tonight’s big messages as we all fondly say “Goodbye, Iowa”:

Ted Cruz: I will have the shortest name of any president in history.
Marco Rubio: Benghazi!
Donald Trump: Finishing in the top ten is a great victory.
Jeb Bush: I have a short name too. And hey, I beat Carly.
Republican Party: We count votes a lot more efficiently than those loser Democrats.
Hillary Clinton: A win is a win. Let’s get out of here.
Bernie Sanders: Hmmm. Maybe we’re not that tired of Hillary’s emails after all.
Democratic Party: We may be slow, but we make up for it with a stereotypically cumbersome and complex voting process.

Iowa is historically so unpredictive of anything that I honestly didn’t have a lot of interest in tonight’s results. I was mainly curious about how Donald Trump would somehow spin his second place finish as a victory. The answer, it turned out, was to drone on about how “they” told him to skip Iowa because he wouldn’t even break the top ten. I assume this is the same “they” who repeatedly told Marco Rubio that he was too much of a schmuck to win. Whoever “they” are, they’ve been busy.

And now on to New Hampshire, a state inexplicably in love with Donald Trump. What’s that all about, anyway?

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Ted! Ted! Ted!

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Meet the Only Jeb Bush Supporter at His Caucus

Mother Jones

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Kramer Howell was the only voter in his precinct to caucus for Jeb Bush Monday night.

“I’m the lone Jeb supporter,” said Howell, a senior at Drake University who voted in Republican precinct caucus 45, located on his campus in Des Moines, Iowa. “I was the only one.”

That means the woman who spoke on Jeb’s behalf did not even vote for him. “Her pitch was basically, ‘He’s a good guy,'” Howell said. “It was like the least rousing speech I’ve ever heard.” No one even spoke on behalf of Trump or Kasich.

In all, 47 voters showed up at this caucus, with Marco Rubio dominating and Ted Cruz coming in second.

Oddly, the person who spoke on behalf of Ben Carson kept referring to him as Bernie Sanders. “He went on this really incoherent tangent about gay marriage,” said Howell. “He didn’t seem like the brightest guy.”

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Meet the Only Jeb Bush Supporter at His Caucus

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