Tag Archives: neighborhood

Oklahoma Cop Convicted of Raping Four Black Women and Assaulting Four Others

Mother Jones

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An Oklahoma police officer was found guilty of 18 counts of sexual assault against 8 women in a case that largely escaped national media attention. He could be sentenced to up to 263 years in prison. Here’s what you need to know about the case.

The allegations: Daniel Holtzclaw, a 29-year-old former college football player, was accused of raping and sexually assaulting 13 women—at least 12 of them black—over a 7-month period from December 2013 to June 2014. All the attacks occurred in a predominantly black, low income neighborhood in Oklahoma City that Holtzclaw regularly patrolled, police say. His victims ranged in age from 17 to 57—the youngest a high school student and the oldest a grandmother.

The women testified that Holtzclaw stopped them while they were walking or driving alone. He often forced his victims into his squad car and drove them to isolated areas such as empty lots, fields, or an abandoned school, according to court testimony. Some said that Holtzclaw assaulted them in their homes while wearing his police uniform and with his department-issued gun holstered at his side. One woman, who testified she was 17 at the time of the attack, told the jury that Holtzclaw used a drug search as a pretense to grope her. He later raped the teen on her mother’s front porch while she was home alone. Another—the grandmother—said Holtzclaw forced her to perform oral sex on him during a traffic stop. Holtzclaw was placed on administrative leave during the investigation and was eventually fired. He was arrested in August 2014 after investigators used GPS tracking devices to corroborate his accusers’ stories.

The charges: Holtzclaw was charged with 36 counts, including rape, forcible oral sodomy, burglary, stalking, and sexual battery. He pleaded not guilty to all of the allegations. He faces the possibility of spending multiple life sentences in prison.

The prosecution strategy: Prosecutors argued Holtzclaw deliberately selected his victims. They were almost all poor and black. (Holtzclaw’s father is white. His mother is Japanese.) Some were suspected or convicted of drug possession or prostitution, and others had active warrants. Holtzclaw thought they would be too afraid to report him or no one would believe them if they did, prosecutors argued in court. The officer often threatened victims with arrest and violence if they did not cooperate.

Some of his victims were hesitant to come forward. The youngest accuser asked while on the witness stand, “What’s the point of telling on the police?” Another testified that she never told anyone because she had “never been on the right side of the law.” Police began investigating the case only after the 57-year-old victim came forward. Prosecutors said that she had no criminal record and thus no reason to fear going to the police. A middle-class woman, she was passing through the neighborhood where Holtzclaw stopped her but did not live there.

The defense: The defense argued that all of the sexual acts were consensual. They argued that Holtzclaw is an upstanding, three-year veteran of the police force and an “all-American good guy.” According to media reports from the courtroom, the defense attempted to discredit Holtzclaw’s accusers by grilling them about their past drug use and criminal histories. Holtzclaw did not take the stand.

The jury: The jury included eight men and four women. All of the jurors were white.

The verdict: The jury found Holtzclaw guilty on 18 counts involving 8 of his accusers. The convictions included five counts of rape and several counts of sexual assault, such as sexual battery and forcible oral sodomy. The jury recommended a sentence of 263 years in prison. Holtzclaw will go before the judge for sentencing Jan. 21. He faces multiple life sentences.

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Oklahoma Cop Convicted of Raping Four Black Women and Assaulting Four Others

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Mike Huckabee Wants Syrian Refugees to Be Placed in Homes of "Limousine Liberals"

Mother Jones

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In the wake of the coordinated terrorist attacks in Paris, Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee was quick to blame President Obama’s handling of ISIS and the current migrant crisis swelling Europe. On Saturday, he topped his usual blend of hateful xenophobia by suggesting Syrian refugees be placed in the neighborhoods of “limousine liberals” such as Hillary Clinton.

“How come they never end up in the neighborhood where the limousine liberal lives?” Huckabee said in a radio interview. “Behind gated communities and with armed security around. Mrs. Clinton, you have suggested we take in 65,00 refugees. How many can we bring to your neighborhood in Chappaqua?”

The former Arkansas governor continued by connecting two seemingly disparate events and belittling the protests that erupted at the University of Missouri last week over allegations of racism on campus.

“Heck, we may take them to the University of Missouri,” Huckabee continued. “A lot of the students are so stressed out from feeling unsafe because somebody said a word they didn’t like that they are not using their dorm rooms anymore. Maybe we can put them there.”

Since the deadly attacks on Friday, Republican politicians have been vowing to slam the door on the Obama administration’s plan to accept refugees fleeing from violence in Syria and the Middle East. Concerns over the screening process have been heightened after a Syrian passport was located near the body of one of the Paris attackers.

Speaking at the G20 summit in Turkey on Monday, President Obama hit back at Republicans’ growing refusal to take in refugees, calling their rejections a “betrayal of our values.”

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Mike Huckabee Wants Syrian Refugees to Be Placed in Homes of "Limousine Liberals"

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At Least 51 of My Colleagues Have Been Murdered Since 2003

Mother Jones

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Chamelecón is a neighborhood in San Pedro Sula, Honduras, where the streets are lonely and the houses are marked. On one side of the street, two initials stand out on the walls: MS, the familiar scrawl of one of the most feared gangs, or maras, in Honduras: Mara Salvatrucha. Just across the street, another block of homes have the number 18 written on them—the tag for Barrio 18, the rival gang that also has taken up refuge in Chamelecón.

In recent years, the 50,000 people who live in the neighborhood have been terrorized by the maras. It’s a lawless place where entering means risk—especially for a journalist. But that’s my job, so I went to Chamelecón to try to bring this world to my readers at the Diario la Prensa, the newspaper I’ve worked at for the past 10 years in San Pedro Sula, a city that some experts consider to be the most dangerous in the world.

I always go out reporting with a photographer and a driver, and this story was no different. On our way there, we passed through a bunch of the barrios and colonias controlled by the gangsters. People told us not to go beyond the school, because no one would be able to protect us there. But that didn’t stop us. Our mission was to take photos, get a better look at these abandoned streets, and explain how the gang bangers dominate turf and change the lives of thousands of families there.

It was two in the afternoon, and when we arrived a few teens on bikes, and some more hanging out on the street corners, sounded the alarm. Immediately one grabbed his cell. He was a bandera—that’s what they call the kids who tell the gang leaders that there are strangers present. My photographer was taking some shots from inside the vehicle when, just a few minutes later, one of the banderas approached. “What are you looking for?” he asked. We tried to explain our work, but he didn’t give us time to say anything. “You’d better leave, or there will be problems.”

“Being a journalist in Honduras is for the brave,” my friends like to say—and even more so when you’re reporting on violence, corruption, or drug trafficking. Honduran reporters always have their adrenaline pumping. The constant hustle for what we call la nota roja—the crime beat, more or less—can make us feel numb, especially on those days when 10 or more people die violent deaths.

Going beyond the official story can be like signing your own death warrant. Reporting on the underworld can mean only halfway telling the truth, since telling the whole truth can make you a target for criminals. Since 2003, for example, the Honduran human rights commission has counted at least 51 murders of journalists and media professionals, the majority of them in radio and television. The vast majority of their killers remain free.

In fact, investigating that world once forced me to leave the country. Like other journalist friends, I fled for a time after receiving some threats related to a story I’d worked on. Journalists in Honduras have sought asylum elsewhere, and even have looked to the Inter-American Court for Human Rights for protection. That is a reality that we face daily. Fear always surrounds us.

Still, sometimes you have to face it head-on. A few months ago, I wrote a series about hitmen and decided I needed to actually sit down with one face-to-face—not exactly an easy job. After several tries, I was finally able to negotiate an interview after a number of calls. The hitman made the rules.

The day arrived. Over the phone the killer told us the route, which brought us outside the city of San Pedro Sula; each kilometer was more uncertain than the last. We traveled about 30 killometers to a lonely place. My cellphone rang, breaking our silence—it was him, telling us to move a few more meters up ahead. We kept going, but no one was there. Then another call came, and this time he told us to stop the car and for all of us to get out.

Scared, we did as he told us. We didn’t know if he was going to attack us. Five minutes passed before we heard the sound of a motorbike, and we saw an armed man draw closer. He was tall, heavyset, with a hard face. From the moment he arrived he inspired fear, and the relatively short interview felt like it went on forever. I could feel the chill in his words. At 34, he confessed that he’d killed 17 people, and he said he’d continue killing to earn a living. At the end of the interview, he took the motorbike and left. On the ride back to the city, I couldn’t help but think about how we face death every single day.

Many people have asked me why I don’t stay in the United States or go to another country. I’ve thought about it, sure. When you’re always looking over your shoulder when you walk down the street, or when you don’t know whether to cover something because of the potential repercussions, you just want to go somewhere where you can feel safe, where you can do your job without being afraid.

In the end, though, I chose la nota roja. Sometimes it means you can’t tell the whole story, and sometimes it means telling the truth and putting yourself at risk. Here in Honduras, you learn to live with that fear.

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At Least 51 of My Colleagues Have Been Murdered Since 2003

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I Read Scott Walker’s Health Care Plan So You Don’t Have To

Mother Jones

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It’s health care day for Scott Walker. Today he released “The Day One Patient Freedom Plan,” a title that’s apparently designed to give the impression that his plan would start on Day One of his presidency. Yuval Levin comments that Walker’s proposal “will be familiar to health wonks,” and it’s true. It’s the usual conservative mish-mash of HSAs, high-risk pools, tax credits, interstate insurance sales, tort reform, and block-granting of Medicaid.

Oh, and Walker’s plan won’t require any tax revenue. This is….a little hard to believe since a quick swag suggests that the gross cost of Walker’s tax credits will run about $200 billion per year. I figure the net cost, once you account for the end of Obamacare subsidies and other current outlays, is still in the neighborhood of $100 billion or so.1 That’s a lot, so I assume Walker explains pretty carefully how he’s going to pull this off without any new taxes.

Indeed he does. Here’s the answer: “We would simplify and reform how the federal government helps people access health insurance.” Gee, I wonder why no one’s thought of that before?

So far, there’s nothing very interesting here. Every Republican candidate is going to release a plan very similar to this. But there is one other thing I was curious about. It turns out that protecting people with pre-existing conditions is really popular, and this means that Republicans all feel like they have to support the idea. But how? Apologies for the long excerpt, but I want to make sure you see Walker’s whole answer:

No individual should fear being denied coverage, or face huge premium spikes when they get sick and then try to change jobs or insurance plans. My plan would address these concerns. It would make additional reforms to insurance coverage laws to ensure individuals with pre-existing conditions would be protected, not only when moving from employer-based plans to the individual market, but also when switching between plans. This would make insurance coverage more portable, permitting individuals to own their coverage, regardless of how or where they purchase it.

Provided individuals maintain continuous, creditable coverage, no one would see their premiums jump because of a health issue or be shut out of access to affordable health insurance because of a new diagnosis or a pre-existing medical condition. Newborns, as well as young adults leaving their parents’ insurance plans and buying their own, would have these same protections. Unlike the ObamaCare approach, my plan would protect those with pre-existing conditions without using costly mandates. By relying on incentives rather than penalties, individuals would be free to choose.

This is literally a non-answer. We do know a couple of things: (a) if you let your insurance lapse, you’re screwed, and (b) Walker will somehow prevent insurance companies from raising your rates if you maintain continuous coverage. He provides no clue just what kind of insurance regulation would accomplish this, and for a good reason: I doubt there is one. Obamacare accomplishes it via community rating, which requires insurance companies to cover all comers at the same price, but Walker surely rejects this approach. What he replaces it with remains a mystery.

One other thing worth noting: Walker’s tax credits would, at best, pay only for catastrophic coverage. Maybe not even that. Nor will his plan cover everyone. Nor is it likely to cost nothing. Nor does it have any concrete proposals to reduce the cost of health care. If you think that’s OK, then Walker is your guy. If you think everyone should be able to receive affordable routine health care, and you’re willing to pay for it honestly, you might want to stick with Obamacare.

1Don’t worry about the numbers. They’re just illustrative guesses on my part. I’m sure experts will weigh in eventually with better estimates.

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I Read Scott Walker’s Health Care Plan So You Don’t Have To

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The South Bronx isn’t falling for Fresh Direct’s dirty trucks

The South Bronx isn’t falling for Fresh Direct’s dirty trucks

By on 10 Mar 2015commentsShare

Another day, another tale of social and environmental injustice.

This one takes us to the South Bronx, where residents are trying to keep Fresh Direct, a popular food delivery service, from setting up shop in their neighborhood and flooding their streets with delivery trucks.

The company, currently based in Queens, dispatches trucks full of high-end groceries to residents in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Delaware. In 2012, it announced plans to move its warehouse to the South Bronx, a densely populated, low-income neighborhood in New York’s poorest borough, and as a preemptive “You’re welcome!” promised to bring with it up to 1,000 new jobs (that don’t pay very well). Company reps also told the borough president that it would give at least 30 percent of those jobs to local residents, although they’re not legally bound to that.

Here’s the problem: the company would also bring about 1,000 new trucks to the neighborhood, which is bad news for an area already home to high asthma rates and heavy industry — there’s a sewage treatment plant, a FedEx hub, a waste-transfer station, some of the busiest wholesale food markets in the world, and multiple major expressways, including the Cross Bronx, which is notoriously backed up all the time.

South Bronx resident Arthur Mychal Johnson lives near the waterfront where Fresh Direct plans to move. Back in 2012, he co-founded the community group South Bronx Unite to oppose Fresh Direct because, as he told The Guardian:

“Of course we want jobs, but we should not have to choose between having a job and having clean air. If you can’t breathe, you can’t work. Why is that not obvious?”

Between 2002 and 2005, New York University researchers attached air pollution monitors to the backpacks of asthmatic kids in the South Bronx to see what kind of air they were breathing. Not surprisingly, it was pretty bad. Traffic fumes were a big problem; some kids occasionally registered levels of diesel emissions that exceeded what the EPA considers safe (and legal).

But studies are boring! Remember those 1,000 low-paying jobs? City officials sure do. Back in 2012, the city promised Fresh Direct a $130 million incentive package boosting the local economy. The new mayor, Bill de Blasio, campaigned against such subsidies but hasn’t done much about them since taking office, according to The Guardian.

At a public hearing last November, city officials considered giving the company an additional $10 million in subsidies. Locals showed up to the meeting to raise hell and succeeded in convincing the officials to reconsider. Johnson of South Bronx Unite recalled the victory in his interview with The Guardian:

“We wanted them to hear our impassioned plea to do something different, to think about kids in this community who keep missing school and who can’t play outdoors because they have asthma.”

Still, Fresh Direct broke ground in the South Bronx last December, and last month, city officials voted to approve the additional subsidies. South Bronx Unite will continue to fight Fresh Direct, and even if the company does move to the neighborhood (let’s face it, it probably will), Johnson says the group plans to restore and greenify other parts of the surrounding waterfront.

According to its website, Fresh Direct currently has 10 electric trucks in its fleet and plans to make its trucks “100 percent green” within five years. That would certainly be a good thing for the South Bronx, but it wouldn’t negate the injustice of the company moving there now, before greening its fleet.

It’s kind of like if I were to go your house and rip up your lawn without your permission and then later decide to go back and plant you a nice vegetable garden. You might appreciate the vegetable garden, but it wouldn’t change the fact that ripping up your lawn in the first place was a dick move.

Source:
‘Environmental racism’: Bronx activists decry Fresh Direct’s impact on air quality

, The Guardian.

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The South Bronx isn’t falling for Fresh Direct’s dirty trucks

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New York City Is About to Get a Lot Hotter

Mother Jones

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This story originally appeared in CityLab and is republished here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

The New York City Panel on Climate Change has released its latest report, and it’s just the kind of reading to warm those frigid winter bones. By the 2080s there could be an 8.8-degree rise in temperature as well as six heat waves a year, sweltering conditions that scientists say will “increase the number of heat-related deaths that occur in Manhattan.”

Compare those predictions to what’s already occurred and it’s easy to be worried. Mean temperatures in New York rose 3.4 degrees from 1900 to 2013, a slug’s crawl compared to the rate of fossil-fueled scorching predicted for the rest of the century. There were an annual average of two heat waves in the 1980s; dealing with half-a-dozen every year sounds like hell.

And because it’s never too soon to dream of the warm season, the report drops this bomb: “It is more likely than not that the number of the most intense hurricanes will increase in the North Atlantic Basin, along with extreme winds associated with these storms.” (The changing climate’s effects on wintry nor’easters is uncertain, it adds.)

There are plenty of other alarming things to parse in the panel’s report, put together by policymakers and NASA. The space agency has picked out these notes and projections:

“Mean annual precipitation has increased by a total of 8 inches from 1900 to 2013. Future mean annual precipitation is projected to increase 4 to 11 percent by the 2050s and 5 to 13 percent by the 2080s, relative to the 1980s base period.”
“Future mean annual temperatures are projected to increase 4.1 to 5.7 degrees F by the 2050s and 5.3 to 8.8 degrees F by the 2080s, relative to the 1980s base period.”
“Sea levels have risen in New York City 1.1 feet since 1900. That is almost twice the observed global rate of 0.5 to 0.7 inches per decade over a similar time period. Projections for sea level rise in New York City increase from 11 inches to 21 inches by the 2050s, 18 inches to 39 inches by the 2080s, and, 22 inches to 50 inches, with the worst case of up to six feet, by 2100.”

It is “virtually certain” swollen seas will ratchet up the frequency and ferocity of coastal flooding, warns the panel. The New York of 2100 could have double the amount of land vulnerable to historic floods than currently outlined in FEMA’s proposed flood-insurance rate maps. (By 2016, people living within the FEMA zones will be required to buy flood insurance if holding mortgages from government-backed lenders.)

Queens faces the biggest threat from the encroaching seas, and next it’s Brooklyn, Staten Island, the Bronx, and Manhattan. To see if your neighborhood could be gentrified by carp, consult this map showing how far historic (aka 100-year) floods could travel in a high-emissions scenario:

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New York City Is About to Get a Lot Hotter

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California’s cap-and-trade program now covers cars

California’s cap-and-trade program now covers cars

By on 2 Jan 2015commentsShare

After a long PR battle between oil industry lobbyists and California’s regulatory agencies, the state’s cap-and-trade program was extended on Jan. 1, on schedule, to cover companies that sell fuel to drivers. That means fuel retailers will have to either provide lower-carbon fuels or buy permits for the pollution their products put into the air.

Industry front groups have been labeling this new extension of the cap-and-trade program a “hidden gas tax.” Citing calculations based on outdated figures, these groups have been threatening that, starting this month, prices at the pump will go up for Californians by as much as $0.76 per gallon.

That’s not true, say the California government and independent economists. Yes, some of the cost — something in the neighborhood of 9 or 10 cents per gallon — could be passed on to consumers. But with gas prices across the U.S. falling ever lower, California drivers likely won’t notice much of a difference. Furthermore, as the Natural Resources Defense Council’s Simon Mui points out, AB 32 — the California climate change legislation that led to the creation of the cap-and-trade program — takes steps to encourage fuel efficiency and to promote alternatives to gasoline-powered cars, from electric vehicles to high-speed trains. Those initiatives, NRDC estimates, could end up saving families hundreds of dollars in transportation costs each year.

So why is the industry warning of a major hike in fuel prices even when independent analysts are saying Californians can expect to pay only an additional dime a gallon? Some consumer advocates worry it’s a sign that the industry may try to have the last word by artificially hiking prices in protest of the program. For instance, the oil industry might pull one or more of the state’s 14 refineries offline, causing prices to spike. So last month, Consumers Union, the policy arm of Consumer Reports, sent a letter to the state agency that oversees fuel markets warning it to watch for market manipulation from a spiteful industry.

“Oil companies launched a ballot initiative, backed a number of failed bills to dismantle clean energy efforts and have spent $70 million lobbying Sacramento politicians” to undermine the state’s climate law, said Shannon Baker-Branstetter, policy counsel for Consumers Union, in a press release put out with the letter. “Through it all, consumers have been steadfast in their support of clean energy and energy efficiency.” Baker-Branstetter noted that even as oil prices are falling, industry-backed groups “continue to claim that gas price spikes are coming starting in January 2015. … We want to make sure that California consumers are protected against possible market manipulations.”

The San Francisco Chronicle reports that, perhaps in response to these concerns, California’s Energy Commission appointed new members to the state agency that monitors how regulations affect fuel prices — including the head of antitrust operations in the state attorney general’s office.

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Here’s What We Saw on the Ferguson Livestreams Last Night

Mother Jones

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The situation in Ferguson continued to deteriorate Monday night. The curfew imposed by Gov. Jay Nixon was lifted Monday as he called in the National Guard to help police the area. We kept tabs on the livestreams coming from Moustafa Hussein at Argus Radio (embedded below) and Tim Pool at Vice News (rewatch the feed here). See below for more updates as events unfolded.

Updates:

1:06 a.m. CDT, Argus: Hussein and other media are gathered in the designated press area outside the protest area, waiting for updates. We’re signing off for the night, but check back in the morning for more updates.

12:45 a.m. CDT, Argus: Hussein and his colleague are turned away at another entry point to the protest area. There appears to be a lot of confusion over where journalists and protestors can and can’t go. As the Washington Post’s Wesley Lowery tweeted earlier:

12:15 a.m. CDT, Argus: “Something is happening in the neighborhood and they’re keeping media completely away from it,” Hussein says. “Every time we get to the street that officers told us to go to, we’re being told to go to another area.”

11:53 p.m. CDT, Vice: Vice’s Tim Pool trying to get into press area but can’t find his credential. Officer: “Credentials.” Pool: “I lost it when I was getting shot at.” Officer: “Well you’re not getting through.” (Officer rips off “PRESS” decal on Pool’s vest) “This doesn’t mean shit.”

11:52 p.m. CDT, Argus: Police officers appear to arrest several protesters. One officer tells the Argus reporter that all media needs to go up 2.5 miles back to the press area near the Target store, apologizing for the inconvenience. “We don’t get told much,” the officer says. Meanwhile:

11:45 p.m. CDT, Argus: Police repeatedly tell protesters: “Everyone on the Ferguson-Market parking lot needs to leave immediately or you will be subject to arrest, with the exception of credentialed media. Do it now. Or you will be subject to arrest.” Moments later, a line of police officers proceeds down the street, holding up their weapons:

11:41 p.m. CDT, Vice: Tim Pool, Vice News reporter, to officer: “Are there live shots?” Officer: “Yes. Bad guys shot. We didn’t shoot.”

11:30 p.m. CDT, Argus: Police ask media to shut off the lights on their cameras.

11 p.m. CDT, Vice: Police begin deploying smoke, tear gas, and flash bang grenades. Vice reporter Tim Pool, who is filming the feed, says he was hit in the leg by a rubber bullet.

10:40 CDT, Argus: Police rush in and grab two protesters, one a woman who can be heard saying she is trying to get home.

10:20 CDT, Argus: Protest leaders are able to calm an increasingly tense situation by moving media and protesters out of the street and onto the sidewalk after police give indications they might move on the crowd.

10pm CDT, Argus: Antonio French, a local alderman, can be seen trying to calm down several aggressive protesters, and keeping media from getting too close to police. The police have also deployed, on and off, a noise device to try and disperse the crowd. Read our interview with French here.

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Here’s What We Saw on the Ferguson Livestreams Last Night

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Invading Crimea May Have Cost Russia $200 Billion So Far

Mother Jones

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Russia’s military actions are costing it dearly:

Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region last month and the instability it created in Russian financial markets were cited by government officials for record capital flight and sharply downgraded growth forecasts for the country. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that instead of projected 2.5% growth this year, Russia’s economy might show no growth at all.

….U.S. and European sanctions to punish Russia for occupying and annexing Crimea have so far targeted only a few dozen officials and businessmen. But the prospect of broader penalties, such as a Western boycott of Russian oil and gas, have scared investors into cashing out their ruble-denominated assets for hard currency and taking their money abroad. Russia’s foreign exchange reserves were drained of a record $63 billion in the first quarter of the year, Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said Wednesday in an address to the lower house of the parliament.

….Russian stocks fell 10% last month, wiping out further billions in capital. The ruble has lost 9% of its value since the start of the year, boosting prices for the imported food and manufactured goods on which the Russian consumer market is heavily dependent. “The acute international situation of the past two months” was the cause, Ulyukayev said, referring to the Ukraine unrest.

That’s a helluva big drop in economic growth. Just by itself, it represents a cost of $50 billion. Add in the flight of cash and the stock market decline, and you’re somewhere in the neighborhood of $200 billion.

Is that enough to make Russia blink? Maybe not. But it hurts, and the prospect of losing even more has got be enough to give even Vladimir Putin a few second thoughts.

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Invading Crimea May Have Cost Russia $200 Billion So Far

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Raw Data: By 2017, Obamacare Will Be Covering 36 Million People

Mother Jones

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Megan McArdle asks, “Is Obamacare now beyond repeal?” Good question! McArdle goes through the various estimates of enrollment figures, concluding that something in the neighborhood of 5.5-6.5 million people are likely to sign up this year, depending on how much enrollment accelerates in the last few days of March and how many people drop out because they fail to pay their premiums. That sounds reasonable to me. Then this:

Does that mean that Obamacare will basically be beyond repeal, as its supporters hope? It certainly makes things harder. But we still don’t know how many of these people are newly insured, or how many of the previously insured like these policies better than their old policies — nor how much pressure it is going to end up putting on the budget. Those are things we won’t know for quite a while. But if it were impossible to ever cut off an expensive entitlement that goes to the middle class, TennCare would never have been cut.

But there’s something missing here. It’s something that nearly everyone has neglected in the frenzy to figure out what’s happening right now. Here it is: the world doesn’t stop in 2014. Enrollment of around 6 million makes Obamacare hard to repeal, but for now that’s not really what’s holding it in place. What’s holding it in place is the fact that Democrats control the Senate and Barack Obama occupies the White House. And even if the Senate switches parties next year, I think we can all agree that Obamacare is going nowhere as long as Obama stays president. So 2017 is the earliest it could even plausibly be repealed.

But what do things look like in 2017? The chart on the right shows the latest CBO estimates. By 2017, a total of 36 million Americans will be covered by Obamacare. Of that, 24 million will have private coverage via the exchanges and 12 million will be covered by Medicaid. Those are very big numbers. Even if Republicans improbably manage to get complete control of the government in the 2016 election and eliminate the filibuster so Democrats can’t object, they’ll still have to contend with this.

Does this make Obamacare invulnerable? Of course not. Nothing makes it invulnerable. It’s always possible, though it seems vanishingly unlikely at this point, that it will fail so badly that even Democrats sour on it in a couple of years. It’s also possible that Republican hostility will remain so furious that they just flatly don’t care about 36 million constituents. And maybe they won’t care that the health care industry is fully invested in Obamacare and will fight efforts to get rid of it.

Anything is possible. But when you talk about the chances of repealing Obamacare, you should be talking about 2017. And if you’re talking about 2017, then the number that matters isn’t 6 million, it’s 36 million. That’s a mighty big nut to crack.

Link:  

Raw Data: By 2017, Obamacare Will Be Covering 36 Million People

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